17/12/2023
NEGROS OCCIDENTAL GINPA-IDALUM SA SIGNAL No. 1
๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐ ๐๐๐๐๐๐๐ ๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐ ๐๐.๐
Tropical Storm โฃ (Jelawat)
Issued at 11:00 PM, 17 December 2023
Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin at 2:00 AM tomorrow.
โ๐๐๐๐๐ ๐๐โ ๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐ ๐๐๐๐ ๐ ๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐ ๐๐๐๐๐.
โฃ
๐๐จ๐๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐จ๐ ๐๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ซ (๐:๐๐ ๐๐)โฃ
The center of Tropical Storm KABAYAN was estimated based on all available data at 275 km East of Davao City, Davao del Sur (7.5ยฐN, 128.1ยฐE)
โฃ
๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ง๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ฒ โฃ
Maximum sustained winds of 65 km/h near the center, gustiness of up to 80 km/h, and central pressure of 1000 hPa
โฃ
๐๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐จ๐ฏ๐๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ:
West Northwestward at 15 km/h
โฃ
๐๐ฑ๐ญ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ซ๐จ๐ฉ๐ข๐๐๐ฅ ๐๐ฒ๐๐ฅ๐จ๐ง๐ ๐ช๐ข๐ง๐๐ฌ โฃ
Strong to gale-force winds extend outwards up to 420 km from the center
โฃ
๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐ ๐๐๐๐๐๐๐ ๐ช๐๐๐ ๐๐๐๐๐๐๐ (๐๐๐ช๐) ๐๐ ๐๐
๐
๐๐๐โฃ
๐๐๐๐ ๐๐ฐ. 2 โฃ
Warning lead time: 24 hours
Range of wind speeds: 62 to 88 km/h (Beaufort 8 to 9)
Potential impacts of winds: Minor to moderate threat to life and property
๐๐ข๐ง๐๐๐ง๐๐จโฃ
Dinagat Islands, Surigao del Norte including Siargao and Bucas Grande Islands, Surigao del Sur, the northern portion of Agusan del Norte (Kitcharao, Jabonga, Santiago, City of Cabadbaran, Remedios T. Romualdez, Tubay), the eastern portion of Agusan del Sur (Trento, Bunawan, San Francisco, Rosario, Prosperidad, City of Bayugan, Sibagat), and the northern portion of Davao Oriental (Boston, Cateel)
๐๐๐๐ ๐๐ฐ. ๐ทโฃ
Warning lead time: 36 hoursโฃ
Range of wind speeds: 39 to 61 km/h (Beaufort 6 to 7)โฃ
Potential impacts of winds: Minimal to minor threat to life and propertyโฃ
๐๐ข๐ฌ๐๐ฒ๐๐ฌโฃ
Southern Leyte, Leyte, the southern portion of Samar (Basey, Santa Rita, Marabut, Talalora, Villareal, Pinabacdao), the southern portion of Eastern Samar (Maydolong, City of Borongan, Quinapondan, Guiuan, Lawaan, Balangiga, Llorente, Giporlos, Salcedo, Balangkayan, General Macarthur, Hernani, Mercedes), Cebu including Camotes and Bantayan Islands, Bohol, Siquijor, Negros Oriental, and Negros Occidental
๐๐ข๐ง๐๐๐ง๐๐จโฃ
The rest of Agusan del Norte, the rest of Agusan del Sur, the central portion of Davao Oriental (Baganga, Manay, Caraga), Davao de Oro, Davao del Norte, Davao City, Camiguin, Misamis Oriental, Misamis Occidental, Lanao del Norte, Lanao del Sur, the northern portion of Maguindanao del Norte (Buldon, Barira, Matanog), the northern portion of Cotabato (Arakan, Carmen, Banisilan, Alamada, President Roxas, Kabacan, Matalam, Antipas, Magpet), the northern portion of Zamboanga del Sur (Midsalip, Labangan, Tukuran, Aurora, Sominot, Ramon Magsaysay, Tambulig, Dumingag, Mahayag, Josefina, Molave), and the northeastern portion of Zamboanga (Siayan, Sindangan, Jose Dalman, Manukan, Pres. Manuel A. Roxas, Sergio Osmeรฑa Sr., Katipunan, Dipolog City, Polanco, Mutia, Piรฑan, Dapitan City, Sibutad, La Libertad, Rizal)
โฃ
๐๐๐ก๐๐๐๐ ๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐ ๐๐๐๐ ๐๐๐๐๐โฃ
๐๐๐๐ฏ๐ฒ ๐๐๐ข๐ง๐๐๐ฅ๐ฅ ๐๐ฎ๐ญ๐ฅ๐จ๐จ๐คโฃ
โฃ
Forecast accumulated rainfall for tonight to tomorrow evening
โข Above 200 mm: The northern portion of Surigao del Sur
โข 100-200 mm: The rest of Surigao del Sur, Surigao del Norte, Dinagat Islands, Camiguin, and Southern Leyte
โข 50-100 mm: Leyte, Biliran, Bohol, the northern portions of Davao de Oro, Davao del Norte, and Davao Oriental, the southern portions of Eastern Samar and Samar, and the rest of Caraga and Northern Mindanao.
Forecast accumulated rainfall for tomorrow evening to Tuesday evening
โข 100-200 mm: Surigao del Sur, Surigao del Norte, Agusan del Norte, the eastern portion of Agusan del Sur, and Dinagat Islands
โข 50-100 mm: Visayas, Northern Mindanao, and the rest of Caraga.
Forecast rainfall are generally higher in elevated or mountainous areas. Under these conditions, flooding and rain-induced landslides are likely especially in areas that are highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards as identified in hazard maps and in localities that experienced considerable amounts of rainfall for the past several days.
In addition, the Shear Line coinciding with the passage of KABAYAN may bring heavy rainfall over the eastern portion of Southern Luzon. For more information, refer to Weather Advisory No. 4 issued at 11:00 PM today.
โฃ
๐๐๐ก๐๐๐๐ ๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐ ๐๐๐๐ ๐๐๐๐๐โฃ
๐๐๐ฏ๐๐ซ๐ ๐ช๐ข๐ง๐๐ฌ โฃ
โฃ
The wind signals warn the public of the general wind threat over an area due to the tropical cyclone. Local winds may be slightly stronger/enhanced in coastal and upland/mountainous areas exposed to winds. Winds are less strong in areas sheltered from the prevailing wind direction.
โข Minor to moderate impacts from gale force winds may occur within any of the areas where Wind Signal No. 2 is hoisted
โข Minimal to minor impacts from strong winds are possible within any of the areas under Wind Signal No. 1.
The surge of the Northeast Monsoon will bring also gusty conditions for the next 2 days over the following areas not under any Wind Signal, especially in coastal and upland/mountainous areas exposed to winds:
โข Tonight and tomorrow: Batanes, Babuyan Islands, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, Aurora, Bataan, Bulacan, Rizal, Quezon, Lubang Island, Marinduque, Cuyo Islands, Bicol Region, Visayas, the northern and eastern portion of mainland Cagayan, the eastern portions of Isabela and Nueva Ecija, and portions of Cordillera Administrative Region, Zambales, Pampanga, Cavite, and Mindoro Provinces.
๐๐๐๐๐๐๐ ๐๐
๐
๐๐๐๐๐๐ ๐๐๐๐๐๐๐ ๐ช๐๐๐๐๐โฃ
Under the influence of the Northeast Monsoon surge and Tropical Storm KABAYAN, a Gale Warning is in effect for the coastal waters along the seaboard of Northern Luzon and the eastern seaboards of Visayas and Mindanao. Sea travel is risky for small seacraft (including all motor bancas of any type or tonnage). Mariners of these vessels are advised to remain in port or seek safe harbor. For more information, refer to Gale Warning No. 4 issued at 5:00 PM today.
โฃ
๐๐๐๐๐ ๐๐๐ ๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐ ๐๐๐๐๐๐๐โฃ
โข Hazards such as severe wind and heavy rainfall may be experienced in areas that are not close to the track forecast. Refer to the โHazards affecting land areasโ for more detailed information.
โข KABAYAN is forecast to track generally westward or west northwestward path across the Philippine archipelago over the next two days and is likely to remain a tropical storm until its initial landfall over Mindanao.
โข On the track forecast, it is likely to make landfall along the coast of Surigao del Sur or Davao Oriental tonight or tomorrow morning, cross the rugged terrain of Mindanao, and emerge over Bohol Sea or Sulu Sea between tomorrow noon and evening. Due to frictional effects associated with landfall, KABAYAN is forecast to be downgraded into a tropical depression and the possibility of being downgraded into a low pressure area while over land or after emerging over the sea is not ruled out (although in such a case, re-development may still occur over the Sulu Sea).
โข Afterwards, KABAYAN will move across the Sulu Sea south of Cuyo Islands. The tropical cyclone is forecast to make another landfall over central or southern Palawan as a tropical depression by Tuesday morning or afternoon, then emerge over the Philippine Sea shortly thereafter. KABAYAN may pass near or over Kalayaan Islands in the West Philippine Sea between Tuesday evening and Wednesday morning.
โข It is imperative to stress that the forecast track and intensity of the tropical depression may still change given its nature and strength.
The next tropical cyclone bulletin will be issued at ๐:๐๐ ๐๐ tomorrow. โฃ
โฃ
Source: ๐๐๐๐-๐๐๐๐๐๐โฃ
