Weather Girl Reports

03/09/2024

NHC gives the westernmost system a 40% of development. Models still keep it well to the S of FL. It could begin to develop in the SW Gulf. The threat could be for TX or LA.

31/08/2024

The Tropics are waking up with 3 active tropical disturbances being monitored, and likely to form after Labor Day. This is not a surprise, with peak season coming on 9/10.

is an area of low pressure just SW of the TX/LA border. While this will generate rain, no organization at this point.
Models give only a 10% chance of development into a Tropical Depression over the next 24-48 hours amd reflect a stationary system for several days. Look for changes on Labor Day. If you're a resident or planning a visit to the area, keep a close eye!

is currently showing signs of development. It's moving W and conditions are favorable for further development.
Models reflect a 60% chance of development into a Tropical Depression over the next 72 hours, and 70% later next week.
They also reflect a continued movement West.
Currently, this is the system to watch!

is the larger of the systems, off the coast of Africa.
Currently, conditions are not favorable for development.
Models show a 20% chance of development over the next 48 hours. Models point at a possible turn NW by end of next week... but too far out to forecast with certainty.

There are a few others wave out there as well.

23/08/2024

THE TROPICS ARE QUIET, but peak season is September 10th!

We are in a lull, but most of the season is ahead of us. In 2022, we had a 60 day period with no storms, then we got and .

Currently, all Tropical Waves coming off of Africa, are doing so more N than usual. The water in the N is much cooler, which inhibits development. There has also been a drop in water temps in the E Atlantic.

The air off the coast of Africa is very dry due to Saharan dust, another factor contributing to the lull.

Don't be surprised if we see a sudden increase in activity after Labor Day, as we come upon peak season. On average, the busiest portion of the season is normally late August through mid October.

17/08/2024

Hurricane made landfall on Bermuda as a CAT 1 storm this morning.

14/08/2024

became a Hurricane late this morning. The 3rd Hurricane of the season, kess than 4 weeks ahead of the average timing. NHC track shows a slight nudge back to the E. Still a very close call for Bermuda. An expected slow down near Bermuda will make for longer impacts. Should be a major Hurricane then. No U.S. impacts but the East Coast will experience large swells and dangerous rip currents late week into the weekend.

14/08/2024

Cold front in August for FL!
Sat and Sun a.m. Will be cooler!

14/08/2024

TROPICS UPDATE: The tail of Tropical Storm is still affecting Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands with gusty winds and heavy rain. Conditions improve later today. It looks like a close call for Bermuda as becomes a large, powerful hurricane.

14/08/2024

Tropical Storm is currently over the eastern portion of Puerto Rico moving northwest at about 18mph with winds of 65 mph. Gusts over 75mph reported.

Over the next 12 hours is modeled to become a CAT-1 Hurricane with max sustained winds of 80mph by tomorrow evening.

A gradual shift to the N is expected, with a 75% probability of direct landfall over Bermuda late Saturday as a Cat-2 Hurricane.

13/08/2024

Tropical Storm is modeled to make direct landfall as a Tropical Storm in the Northern Caribbean and then Puerto Rico before turning to the N towards Bermuda.

There is an increase in probability to 75% that will make direct landfall in Bermuda as a CAT-2 Hurricane.

12/08/2024

August cold front dips through the SE late Thursday into Friday. It is the same front pulling to the north. Might actually feel a little cool with lower humidity. Cooler in the mornings!

12/08/2024

Tropical Storm has formed. is expected to arrive in the Lesser Antilles by early Tuesday and then spread westward through Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands from later Tuesday through early Wednesday as a tropical storm.

is expected to make a N turn sometime Wednesday after leaving Puerto Rico. This N turn will occur soon enough to keep it away from the U.S. East Coast.

​rnesto is forecast to become a hurricane after it makes its turn N. Where exactly it takes that turn could be crucial for any potential impact in Bermuda Friday night or Saturday.

B​eyond that, it's not clear if will turn sharply enough toward the E or ENE to keep it away from Atlantic Canada early next week.

11/08/2024

has developed east of PR. It has yet to develop a well defined core to be classified as a Tropical Depression. Because of its proximity to land, watches will have to be issued, therefore, NHC classifies as a potential tropical cyclone.
Models forecast slow strengthening into Tropical Storm by Monday afternoon.
Tropical storm watches have been issued for a portion of the northern Lesser Antilles. A sharp turn to the north is forecast near Puerto Rico. Bermuda should keep a close eye on it.

11/08/2024

The NHC has increased chance of development for (future ) to 70% in 2 days and 90% in 7 days.

Looks likeky it will become a depression later today. PR must keep a close eye, as it seems they will feel some effects on Wednesday, if not landfall.

Most of the models, except for one outlier, indicate a turn to the North.

10/08/2024

Future is getting better organized and NHC gives it an 80% chance of development over the next week.

Models currently reflect a turn North before the Bahamas due to a cold front that could open the door for that turn. Still very early, so we keep a close watch.

The Islands, PR, and DR pay close attention.

If the system intensifies to a stronger storm, the tendency should be to turn away from FL.

09/08/2024

The Tropical Wave now has a 60% chance ofdevelopment per the NHC. A bit of Saharan Dust is helping to slow its development, however there is a good chance it will develop come next week. Puerto Rico needs to keep watch. Modeling at this very early stage reflects a path to the East of FL. We are looking at proximity to FL, 9 or 10 days out. Extremely early for forecasting.

09/08/2024

New area to watch! NHC has chance of development up to 50%. Very early model runs trending East of FL, but this is very preliminary. may be brewing.

08/08/2024

has made another landfall near Bulls Bay, SC. The storm will now begin to weaken as it continues to bring flooding rains north through the Carolinas and the Mid-Atlantic states today.

08/08/2024

Thev Euro and the GFS models, show development next week in the Caribbean. NHC shows nothing at this point. Both models reflect a very weak system currently.

06/08/2024

Rainfall totals yet to come here. Both sides of the SC/NC line gets the hit. Historic flooding for the SE. Most of the associated weather will be gone by the weekend.

06/08/2024

NOAA released new Tropics Hazards map today. Lots to watch.

06/08/2024

https://www.foxweather.com/weather-news/atlantic-hurricane-season-forecast-colorado-state-august-2024.amp?fbclid=IwY2xjawEfjRpleHRuA2FlbQIxMQABHWZj_jUdhwDTT4rnIbJMWLAWabsTzgGXPdmLP0RW-n5xAatAC8vruRucEA_aem_9WsVIjLet5rZbiLi4InUOA

Experts at Colorado State University have slightly lowered the forecast for the remainder of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, but their outlook still calls for a much busier-than-average season.

06/08/2024

Still watching the area in yellow. NHC gived it a 30% chance of development over the next week. The next name on the list is .

06/08/2024

is now reaching the Carolina coast border just a few miles inland. The system is expectrd to come offshore sometime this evening, where it will linger for 2 to 3 days before moving off to the NE.

The NHC has held its forecast for slow strengthening and remains at a 60mph storm, making landfall as a Tropical Storm somewhere north of Charleston. Dry air can be seen wrapping in from the NW, which will prevent any really rapid intensification. Even with the gulfstream available for fuel, there needs to be more moisture available, and that is not the case. Due to the error margin within the 3 day, not a lot of confidence in trajectory.

Gusty winds, heavy rains, and flooding are expected for most along the SC and NC coast.

06/08/2024

is weakening, but still bring flooding rain to GA and SC as she moves across the area. This will continue over the next few days. Maximum surge expected. FL still getting feeder bands.

06/08/2024

Watching for next week in the tropics. This far out, there will be a lot of disparity in the models. (Early models trend West.)

05/08/2024

Hurricane has made landfall in FL's Big Bend region, which will now be followed by a halt in its forward speed that could result in historically heavy rainfall triggering flooding in parts of the SE. Dangerous storm surge, strong winds gusts and a few tornadoes are also accompanying .

NOAA has issued their highest level of flood outlook for the next few days, shown in pink on the maps below. These areas could experience damaging and life-threatening flooding flash flooding and river flooding.

The NHC stated in their Monday morning discussion that "potentially historic heavy rainfall across southeast GA and the coastal plain of SC through Saturday morning will likely result in areas of catastrophic flooding."

F​looding from rainfall could be exacerbated by winds blowing onshore along the SE coast. That can prevent floodwaters from draining away toward the ocean.

The hurricane is spreading heavy rain from the FL Peninsula to southern GA this morning, triggering some flash flood warnings.

A​ tornado watch is in effect until 4 p.m. EDT for northern and central FL and SE GA.

Winds have gusted over 60 mph this morning in FL's Big Bend region. Moderate coastal flooding from more than 4 feet of storm surge has been observed in Cedar Key.

Now that is inland, it will track NE for a time toward southern GA before slowing down and then meandering near the SE coast much of this week. While it could restrengthen some if the center moves back over water, the main result of the stalled forward motion is that its impacts in the SE, especially serious flooding, will be prolonged.

05/08/2024

11pm NHC track update on now Hurricane . Some strengthening still expected before landfall. Crawling along at 12mph. Slowdown trending back over the Atlantic bringing some major flooding. Eye is due south of Perry. Nudging East prior to early morning landfall.

04/08/2024

is not the only system out there. This could be .

04/08/2024

04/08/2024

Tropical Storm & Hurricane watches and warnings have been expanded across FL.

Unfortunately, has slowed down from 17mph to about 12mph, which is critical for several reasons.

First, is going to strengthen rapidly and become stronger than what is being reported.

Second, the dirty part of the storm is so large now, and with the storm moving slower, it creates a situation where FL residents from Cape Coral north through Tampa are going to now see more rain and flooding today than initially expected.

Third, GA is looking at a much longer and more serious flood event as the slowing of the storm will likely see her stall over eastern GA.

Models which last night indicated making landfall tomorrow as a CAT-1 with max sustained winds of 80mph, now show is likely to make landfall as a strong CAT-1 with max sustained winds of 90mph, with gusts to 100mph expected. However, 20% of the overnight models suggest an even stronger coming ashore as a weak CAT-2 with max sustained winds of 100mph.

While it would seem that dropping from 17mph down to 12/13mph isn't that much of a slowdown, it means so much in regards to a timeline for landfall. Last night, models suggested a window of between 12pm - 4pm for landfall. Today, due to her slowing forward movement, a 1pm-4pm window is indicated.