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26/03/2023

SEVERE WEATHER AS WE LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON-NIGHT HOURS: The Storm Prediction Center has upgraded the threat level for severe storms to include a Moderate Risk (Level 4/5) over portions of south-central extending back into southwest portions of AL.

IMPACTS:
-Tornado Threat: As we linger into the afternoon hours through tonight, the overall ingredients for tornadic development will ramp up. In particular, portions within the red-colored area Moderate (Level 4/5) is where chances are highest with the potential of a strong tornado or two becoming possible (EF-2+), which includes south-central into southwest portions of AL. However, elsewhere across South Alabama, the threat still stands but is more conditional, especially the closer you are within proximity to the most southern tier counties of AL in accordance to AL/Fl line.

-Hail: This will be another primary threat within how the dynamics play out, as robust storm cores will also be capable of producing large hail, with exceptionally high probabilities over portions of southwest AL extending into southern MS through the afternoon into tonight.

-Strong-Perhaps Damaging Wind: Strong cells will be capable of producing strong to perhaps damaging wind gusts (in excess of 60 mph).

07/03/2023

(NBM Model for Daytime highs + lows over next 10 days..via Troy Municipal Airport)

-Slightly cooler air on the way: Today will be the warmest day throughout the next seven days and continuing into the foreseeable future. Temperatures fluctuate back to the 70s throughout the next couple of days for daytime highs, which are seasonable conditions if not slightly a little warmer than average for early March standards. In addition, rain chances are slowly building starting Thursday, more so isolated pockets of rain shower activity, with better opportunity coming Friday into early afternoon. However, drying out in time for your Saturday before yet again rain returns to the forecast on Sunday as a cold front pushes through the state.

-Next week: A sharp cold front will sweep through the state Sunday-Sunday night, coming widespread rain, however, clearing out with drier conditions by Monday afternoon, filtering in much colder air on the backside. Therefore, through the first half of next week will see temperature spread for daytime highs into the upper 50s to lower 60s, with overnight temps well below average digging back down into the upper 30s to lower 40s.

02/03/2023

SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE TOMORROW MORNING-EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS: The SPC has maintained a Slight risk (Level 2/5) for severe storms from central AL into northern AL. However, the remainder southern half of AL is placed in a Marginal risk (Level 1/5).

-Strong Winds: Strong gradient winds (15-20mph), with wind gusts in excess of (40-45mph+), will be likely areawide through early Friday am, lingering throughout tomorrow evening. These are potential wind values not associated with severe storms but because of impressive atmospheric dynamics within this system.

-Tornado Threat: An isolated tornado threat exists areawide for South Alabama for the morning into the early afternoon hours from (southwest-southeast AL) tomorrow.

16/02/2023

*Tornado watch in effect until 8:00 pm CST for the counties shaded in yellow.

16/02/2023

SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON-OVERNIGHT HOURS: The SPC has maintained an Enhanced Risk (Level 3/5) for severe storms for portions of southwest AL, extending into west-central and north-central parts of Alabama. Elsewhere, south-central AL is placed at a Slight risk (Level 2/5) for severe storms, with the southeastern corner of AL-only in a Marginal risk (Level 1/5).

IMPACTS:
-Tornado Threat: A tornado threat exists for South Alabama. Specifically, this risk is most significant across southwest portions of AL as we enter the afternoon into evening hours for Washington, Clarke, Monroe, Wilcox, Marengo, and Choctaw counties. In these areas, the risk for a couple of tornadoes is possible as we enter the afternoon hours through the evening hours with the development of discrete cells, with the potential of a strong tornado becoming possible (EF-2+) if ingredients align. Elsewhere, in south-central and southeastern portions, this threat decreases with time yet remains with a low-end (isolated) brief spin-up tornado potential as we enter evening hours into midnight hours of Friday am.

-Strong-perhaps sporadic damaging wind gusts will also be possible embedded within intense storm cores. This risk is again more favorable across the western half of AL. However, there remains a low-end potential for isolated pockets of strong-damaging winds for south-central counties and a very low threat for the southeastern corner of AL.

-Low-end hail threat exists for west-central into portions of southwest Al; however, this risk is near zero for the remaining parts of South Alabama.

16/02/2023

SEVERE WEATHER TOMORROW (February 16, 2023)
- Tomorrow will be an active weather day across much of the Deep South.

*Tornado Threat: As for South Alabama, an elevated tornado risk will set up tomorrow as we enter the afternoon-evening hours (especially western portions of AL), with an isolated strong tornado potential (EF2+) becoming possible in these areas. Elsewhere, east of I-65, including south-central and southeastern portions of AL, the threat decreases a bit as we get later into the evening and overnight hours with a lingering conditional tornado threat.

* Strong-perhaps sporadic damaging winds will also be possible embedded within stronger storm cores (This risk is highest across the western half of AL).

*Low-end large hail threat exists for west-central into portions of southwest AL; however, this risk is near zero for the remaining portions of South Alabama.

14/02/2023

SEVERE WEATHER ON THURSDAY: The SPC has highlighted much of the Deep South for severe weather in their Day 3 Outlook.

-As of now, all of South Alabama has been depicted in a Slight Risk (Level 2/5) for severe storms Thursday afternoon through the overnight hours of Thursday night into Friday.

-IMPACTS: All modes of severe weather are on the table, including a few tornadoes, scattered strong-perhaps damaging wind gusts, and small hail.

08/02/2023

Rain chances building: Throughout today, we will remain primarily dry area-wide across South Alabama; however, rain is in the forecast as we head into tonight and tomorrow, and isolated severe storms may be possible as the SPC has introduced a Marginal risk (level 1/5) for severe storms.

**DISAGREEMENT IN MODEL DATA: Models are still in disagreement for overall rain coverage for Friday through Saturday; however, there is a bit of confidence that elevated rain chances will continue Friday into Saturday. On Friday, a front emerges from the gulf, creating moisture to stream northward into a stabled air mass, creating a front that becomes temporarily stationary over the area through Saturday morning. Then, the latest Euro model suggests rain chances will remain elevated into Saturday for the late morning hours of Saturday, potentially into the evening hours, as a deepening cold core low penetrates to the south and east.

06/02/2023

A look at the forecast for the next 7 days: Low to even upper 70s is in store through Thursday for daytime highs; however, it comes with rain chances, best opportunity coming Thursday. We start to dry out by Friday morning, along with cooler temperatures following through the weekend.

25/01/2023

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a Tornado Watch for portions of Southern Alabama in effect now until 5:00 AM CST for the counties of Mobile, Baldwin, Washington, Monroe, Escambia, Clarke, Conecuh, and Covington.

*Primary threats include...A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes possible..Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible.

25/01/2023

Quiet for now, however, strong- severe storms are on the horizon, and will be impacting South Alabama as we enter the overnight hours into Wednesday morning.

IMPACTS:
* Strong gradient winds will be capable of producing upwards of (30-40 mph gusts) even outside of severe storms periodically throughout tonight into tomorrow morning.

* Sporadic pockets of strong to damaging winds will also be possible within stronger storm cores (50-70 mph gusts) as the squall line proceeds from southwest AL to southeast AL.

* A Tornado threat exists for immediate southwest portions, including Mobile, Baldwin, Washington, Clarke, Monroe, Conecuh, Escambia, and Covington counties. The danger of a strong tornado (EF-2+) may also become possible in these areas, especially in the panhandle of FL, where conditions are more supportive of development.

* Hail Threat is very low, but not zero, so isolated pockets of hail may be possible in stronger cores.

24/01/2023

SEVERE WEATHER LATE TOMORROW NIGHT- WEDNESDAY MORNING: The Storm Prediction Center has introduced an Enhanced Risk (Level 3/5) for the immediate southwestern portions of AL, Slight Risk (Level 2/5) for south-central AL, and a Marginal Risk (Level 1/5) for the immediate southeastern corner of AL for severe storms late tomorrow night into Wednesday morning.

IMPACTS:
*Primary threat will be strong-damaging winds in more robust clusters of storms (50-70 mph gusts possible), especially for southwestern portions of AL; however, the threat decreases a bit for southcentral + southeast AL as the squall line continues to track to the east. Even outside of storms, it will be a rather breezy night into Wednesday morning as (gradient winds could exceed upward of 40 mph gusts) at times.

* A Tornado threat also exists for South Alabama, particularly for southwest AL and further south into the gulf coast, despite low instability values. A strong tornado may also become possible (EF-2+) in these portions of southwest AL.

*Hail Threat is very low, but not zero, so isolated pockets of hail may become possible within stronger storm cores.

20/01/2023

RAINY weekend in store: Soak up the dry weather today because rain will filter back into the forecast for this weekend. On a positive note, severe weather is not accompanied with this rain shower activity.

17/01/2023

Rain chances continue to build throughout the rest of the workweek, with an exception on Friday!

12/01/2023

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a Tornado Watch for portions of Eastern Alabama which is in effect now until 6:00 pm.

**Primary threats include a few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible. Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph likely+Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible.

12/01/2023

**The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued Tornado Watch for portions of southern AL now until 5:00 pm.

12/01/2023

SEVERE WEATHER EARLY AFTERNOON-EVENING HOURS TODAY:
The ongoing threat of severe weather associated with a cold front has already produced severe storms in northwestern AL, including multiple severe thunderstorm warnings and even a couple of tornadoes. As the squall line continues to accelerate to the south and east throughout early afternoon-evening hours across South AL, it will bring the same impacts.

IMPACTS
-STRONG WINDS: Most prevalent risk is strong-perhaps damaging wind gusts possible within stronger storm cores capable of producing (65+ mph gusts).
-SPIN-UP TORNADOES: Within this squall line, discrete supercells may also develop; and a low risk in which a strong tornado may be possible.
-HAIL POSSIBLE: Hail is also possible within a more potent cell, and can’t fetch out that large hail may also be possible (1-1.5 in diameter).

TIMING
- SOUTHWEST AL: Roughly 11-3 pm
- SOUTHCENTRAL AL: Roughly 2-5 pm
- SOUTHEAST AL: Roughly 4-6pm

11/01/2023

Severe Weather Early Afternoon Tomorrow-Tomorrow Evening: The Storm Prediction Center has introduced a Slight Risk (Level 2/5) for much of South Alabama for severe weather tomorrow, January 12th.

IMPACTS:
*Primary threat will be strong to perhaps damaging wind gusts being possible embedded within the squall line; however, an isolated brief spin-up tornado threat also exists as the line accelerates to the south and east ahead of an approaching cold front.

09/01/2023

A look at the forecast for the next 7 days. Overall a pleasant forecast with tons of sunshine in store; however, rain is in the forecast on Thursday, with severe storms possible.

03/01/2023

-UPGRADED STORM THREATS THIS AFTERNOON-WEDNESDAY AM

02/01/2023

SEVERE WEATHER TOMORROW AFTERNOON-EARLY WEDNESDAY AM: The Storm Prediction Center has introduced an Enhanced Categorical (Level 3/5 risk) for portions of central and much of south AL for severe weather TOMORROW (January 3rd). All modes of severe weather are possible tomorrow, with the highest threat being tornadoes.

- Fresh afternoon model data, particularly the HRRR 3km model, continues to show the suppuration of discrete thunderstorms/supercells blossoming on radar into early afternoon tomorrow. Being confined into the warm sector in an unstable air mass of (upwards of 2,000+ jkg) energy needed to fuel storms+ strong vertical wind shear profiles creates an environment relatively favorable for tornadic development. Then there becomes an ever slight break in activity, according to the HRRR model, into the 8 pm-11pm timeframe before yet another round of more widespread severe storms emerging and continuing through Wednesday morning.

30/12/2022

The National Weather Service in Mobile has issued a Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Mobile County until 11:30 AM.

IMPACTS: Pockets of 60 mph wind gusts possible embedded within the squall line.

26/12/2022

WARMING UP: The next seven days will feature progressively warmer temps after brutally cold temperatures the past couple of days. However, with the warmth comes rain chances on both Friday + Saturday, with the capability of some stronger storms being possible.

23/12/2022

VERY COLD DAYS:
Today+Christmas Eve+Christmas Day features frigid arctic air. However, on a cheerful note, sunshine will be in abundance, but wind chills will be a killer, especially for the overnight hours throughout the next couple of days.

16/12/2022

Looking ahead into the next three days?!
-Tomorrow will be another day with sunny skies with highs on either side of 60 degrees, and potentially the warmest day within the next 7 days for daily high temps. Lows dipping down into the upper 30s near 40 degrees waking up Saturday morning.

-Saturday will feature cloudy skies and the chance of light rain showers (40% coverage at best) for the pm hours ahead of a cold front. Highs on Saturday will stay in the lower 50s, with temps dropping at or below freezing waking up Sunday morning.

- Sunday sunshine will return; however, relatively cool despite sunny skies on either side of 50 degrees. Into the overnight hours, temperatures will tumble once more at or below 32 degrees for Monday morning.

15/12/2022

TORNADO WARNING for Northern Butler County in south central Alabama until 745 PM CST.

* At 654 PM CST, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located 8 miles west of Georgiana, or 15 miles north of Evergreen, moving northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely.

* This dangerous storm will be near...
Greenville around 740 PM CST.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

Tornadoes are extremely difficult to see and confirm at night. Do not wait to see or hear the tornado. TAKE COVER NOW!

14/12/2022

The National Weather Service in Mobile has issued a TORNADO WARNING for Southern Crenshaw County in south central Alabama and Northeastern Covington County in south central Alabama until 600 PM CST.

* At 508 PM CST, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located over Heath, or over Andalusia, moving northeast at 25
mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely.

* This dangerous storm will be near...
Gantt around 515 PM CST.
Dozier around 535 PM CST.
Brantley around 600 PM CST.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

14/12/2022

Fresh 16Z HRRR 3km model run showing significant tornado parameter values that are quite concerning. Not only indicative of a high likelihood of tornadic development but also the ingredients aligning for strong-long track violent tornadoes also being possible throughout southwest portions of Alabama today.

14/12/2022

The Storm Prediction Center has upgraded portions of west central AL + southwest areas of AL in now a Moderate (4 out of 5 risk level) for severe weather today. Elsewhere, the expansion of the enhanced risk (3 out of 5 risk level) now includes the remaining portions of South Alabama including south central+southeast AL.
—THREATS
*Brief spin up tornadoes along with a capability of (a long track strong tornado or two) can not be ruled out especially for southwest portions of AL.
* Strong to perhaps damaging wind gusts possible embedded within severe thunderstorm cores (70+mph possible).
* Large hail potential is low, however, not zero.
* Flash flooding in some areas are also possible especially within flood prone areas.

13/12/2022

SEVERE WEATHER TOMORROW AFTERNOON-EARLY THURSDAY AM: The Storm Prediction Center has upgraded portions of southwest+ south-central AL being introduced to now an Enhanced (Level 3/5 risk) for all models of severe weather being possible tomorrow. Elsewhere, in southeastern AL, the threat level decreases ever so slightly, with these portions in a slight risk (level 2/5) depicted by the SPC.

-Southwest+ South-central AL IMPACTS:
*The development of some tornadoes perhaps a strong (EF-2+) long-track tornado or two is also possible as better model data is impressive in supporting ingredients aligning. Along with unstable cape values exceeding (1900-2000 j/kg+), this creates a volatile air mass for the energy to ignite storm cells. Wind shear is also supportive of the directional wind support of this concept.
*Strong to perhaps damaging wind gusts are also possible, as the SPC has outlined portions of southwest through south-central AL in red (30% out of 60%) for the potential of strong winds upwards of winds 70+ mph.
* The overall hail threat is shallow; however, not out of the question, being potentially embedded within severe thunderstorms.

South East AL IMPACTS:
* The development for brief- isolated spin-up tornadoes are possible in these areas; however, the good news is that all short-term model data backs off a bit with STP (Significant Tornado Parameters), indicative that the chances of a strong tornado are meager within these areas of AL.
* Strong to perhaps damaging winds are also possible within the southeastern counties as SPC has defined these areas in yellow (15% out of 60%) for the potential of strong winds upwards of winds 70+ mph being possible.
* The overall threat of hail is shallow; however, not out of the question, being potentially embedded within severe thunderstorms.

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SEVERE WEATHER TOMORROW (February 16, 2023) - Tomorrow will be an active weather day across much of the Deep South. *Tornado Threat: As for South Alabama, an elevated tornado risk will set up tomorrow as we enter the afternoon-evening hours (especially western portions of AL), with an isolated strong tornado potential (EF2+) becoming possible in these areas. Elsewhere, east of I-65, including south-central and southeastern portions of AL, the threat decreases a bit as we get later into the evening and overnight hours with a lingering conditional tornado threat. * Strong-perhaps sporadic damaging winds will also be possible embedded within stronger storm cores (This risk is highest across the western half of AL). *Low-end large hail threat exists for west-central into portions of southwest AL; however, this risk is near zero for the remaining portions of South Alabama.

Quiet for now, however, strong- severe storms are on the horizon, and will be impacting South Alabama as we enter the overnight hours into Wednesday morning. IMPACTS: * Strong gradient winds will be capable of producing upwards of (30-40 mph gusts) even outside of severe storms periodically throughout tonight into tomorrow morning. * Sporadic pockets of strong to damaging winds will also be possible within stronger storm cores (50-70 mph gusts) as the squall line proceeds from southwest AL to southeast AL. * A Tornado threat exists for immediate southwest portions, including Mobile, Baldwin, Washington, Clarke, Monroe, Conecuh, Escambia, and Covington counties. The danger of a strong tornado (EF-2+) may also become possible in these areas, especially in the panhandle of FL, where conditions are more supportive of development. * Hail Threat is very low, but not zero, so isolated pockets of hail may be possible in stronger cores.

SEVERE WEATHER EARLY AFTERNOON-EVENING HOURS TODAY: The ongoing threat of severe weather associated with a cold front has already produced severe storms in northwestern AL, including multiple severe thunderstorm warnings and even a couple of tornadoes. As the squall line continues to accelerate to the south and east throughout early afternoon-evening hours across South AL, it will bring the same impacts. IMPACTS -STRONG WINDS: Most prevalent risk is strong-perhaps damaging wind gusts possible within stronger storm cores capable of producing (65+ mph gusts). -SPIN-UP TORNADOES: Within this squall line, discrete supercells may also develop; and a low risk in which a strong tornado may be possible. -HAIL POSSIBLE: Hail is also possible within a more potent cell, and can’t fetch out that large hail may also be possible (1-1.5 in diameter). TIMING - SOUTHWEST AL: Roughly 11-3 pm - SOUTHCENTRAL AL: Roughly 2-5 pm - SOUTHEAST AL: Roughly 4-6pm

Rainy+breezy day TOMORROW: Currently, as of tonight, we have #HurricaneNicole, which is barreling down on the eastern coast of FL making landfall sometime tonight. Here locally, we will start to feel the effects from Nicole beginning tomorrow afternoon, as the outerbands will filtrate in as the centered low pressure of Nicole inches closer towards the FL panhandle into GA. **The impacts you can expect here locally tomorrow afternoon-tomorrow night will vary on location** -Southeastern AL: Rainfall totals: 1.50”-2.00”+with max wind gusts (35-45mph) being possible at times. -Southcentral AL: Raindall totals: 0.50”-1.00” with max wind gusts (30-35 mph) being possible at times. -Southwest AL: Rainfall totals: 0.00”-0.50” with max wind gusts (20-30 mph) being possible at times.

Future "Feel Like" temps tomorrow morning! So, are you ready for the downright cold temps when walking out the door tomorrow morning?! Brrr🥶

Rain & Storms TOMORROW: Tomorrow South Alabama will break the dry spell after nearly four weeks of not seeing a trace of rain in sight! -Future Radar below shows a robust coverage of shower and storm activity throughout the day tomorrow. Many will receive anywhere from (1/2 of an inch to 2 inches of rain).

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