Pohlner's Post-Its

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Pohlner's Post-Its

Harford County, MD's #1 prognosticator of winter weather and related school closings and delays
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20/01/2024

TIME FOR A NAP

Well, at the end of our second dose of snow this week, I finished with about 3.5” of fresh accumulation at my house in Forest Hill (4” on Tuesday). Just down the road, others got more thanks to some heavier bands that brought the juice. Thanks for riding with me y’all. That was one hell of a week and I loved every second of it! I hope you and your family and friends have been able to enjoy all of this glorious snow. Live it up while you can 🙂. Feel free to share your final totals and location in the comments below.

Looking ahead, temps will gradually warm up throughout the week and thaw out our snow pack. I for one am not looking forward to wiping dog paws constantly as my back yard will turn from a winter wonderland into a freaking swamp.

Interesting snow potential lies ahead as I’m currently watching the end of January and mid-February. As always, I’ll have my finely tuned brain on all things weather. Stay with me folks, I’ll keep you posted!!!!

19/01/2024

SNOW REPORTS !!!!

Good morning snow lovers and haters!

Snow started early this morning as advertised and it’s ripping at my house in Forest Hill. The NWS has upped their totals yet again to include 6-8” for some spots across central and northeast MD!! Winter Storm Warnings have spread west as I thought they would. I still like my initial call of 3-5” for Harford County but the potential is there for an overachiever. For the counties in pink, the dynamics are there for up to 1” an hour 🙂!!!!!

If you want to join in on the fun and help us get a wider view of how this snowfall is affecting our area, comment below with pics and totals from your neck of the woods. I’ll be back later tonight with a final update and a long range look ahead!

19/01/2024

OFFICIAL POHLNER’S POST-IT !!!!

Now that many school systems have done the inevitable and shut down for Friday (some for the weekend too), let’s talk weather baby.

We’ve been watching Friday for about a week now and it’s time for impact! Snow is on its way and I have a cornucopia of images and projections to share. Make sure you click and read through the pics below as I won’t get to all of it here. Gotta finish Reacher with Mrs. Post-It’s 🙂.

I’m calling for 3-5” across Harford County with the potential for more. Best chances for those high totals are to the northeast. Take a look at the NWS map below as the pink (warning) counties keep spreading to the west. Harford and Cecil counties are awfully close. Snow should start around 4-6 am and lay quickly. It’s going to be cold as hell and well below freezing. Snow will last until late afternoon/early evening (4am-4pm is my guess).

I’ll be back in the am with another update and to start a post for some “nowcasting” where we can share conditions and totals. Lastly, I want to say welcome to all of my new followers who have taken a leap of faith and joined this ridiculously wonderful page. I hope your friends have told you what you’re in store for 😉. See you on the flippity-flip!

18/01/2024

LUNCH BREAK UPDATE ❄️!

Short range models have come in juicier with higher totals stretching west and a bit south from the coast. The NWS still has 2-3” as their projection (***update: they have upped their totals!!!!! Check comments for image) for much of the area and I tend to agree as a safe bet. That being said, higher totals are definitely possible (up to 5”).

For my HCPS peeps, there is no way school happens tomorrow. Stamp it, lock it, put it in your pocket. With the timing and duration of the snow, neither a delayed arrival or early dismissal would help things be safer for anyone. If it was up to me I’d make the call tonight but I can see them waiting until early in the am, just to be sure.

Check back for an update later tonight along with an official forecast on one of my super scientific post-it notes.

18/01/2024

MORNING UPDATE - SNOW IS COMING !!! ❄️ ❄️

First off, if you don’t understand the picture reference below it’s all good. It’s pretty obscure and you probably have to be in your mid-40s to get it 🙂. 5 bonus points if you do! Now, let’s get to the weather:

We are 24 hours from our second shot at snow this week. The latest from the NAM has light snow starting in northeast MD before sunrise on Friday and lasting through the day. This model also has the low staying around the coast a little longer allowing for higher totals to creep west from the coast. This is very hard to predict. The NWS has backed off a bit from last nights map but the idea of 2-3” continues to seem like the right call for now. Check out maps/totals below from short and long range models.

As for schools, even if this system arrives later than advertised I can’t see kids being brought in, only to leave in more dangerous conditions. Smells like another day off on Friday to me! Check back this evening for an update. As always, I’ll keep you posted!

17/01/2024

FRIDAY SNOW UPDATE ❄️ ⛄️ ❄️

I’ve got a fever, and there’s only one prescription. More snow baby!!!!!

The latest model runs are in (see below) and there is consensus for more snow. It looks to move into our region early Friday morning. The 3 global models like a start around 7 am but the NAM (short range model that had a better grip on this past snow) has an earlier start. Either way, snow looks to last throughout the day and jack up roads and school schedules yet again. Totals appear to be anywhere from 2-3” of fresh snow. It could be more if the low stays closer to the coast.

Stay with me as I’ll be keeping an eye on this baby and post updates throughout. For my HCPS brethren, maybe I’ll see you on the slopes!

16/01/2024

ARE YOU THIRSTY FOR MORE ???????

Before we get into Friday morning, let’s talk about current conditions and tomorrow. See below for a picture of my neighborhood. Unless plow trucks can work some crazy magic (they’ve already been through a number of times), any road that looks like this will be an absolute skating rink tonight and tomorrow morning. Pair the impending refreeze with bus stops and walking routes being covered, I 100% guarantee a delay tomorrow for HCPS and surrounding counties (call should come tonight) and I’m not ruling out the possibility of another closure.

Now, on to Friday!!!!! All 3 global models and many others bring more snow to our region early Friday morning. A safe call would be to add on another 1-3” of snow but it could be more. See below for some different estimates as of now. With timing and temps, my Pohlner-sense is tingling y’all.

As always, things can change for the better or worse. I guess it depends on how you look at it. If you’re a snow lover, I hope you get a chance to go out and enjoy it today. Watching my own kids and students sledding, crashing, laughing and throwing snowballs filled my cup!

As always, stay with me and check back for updates. January is bringing it!!

16/01/2024

SNOW REPORTS !!!!!

Well, it took some time for the heavier precip to fill in to the northern half of MD last night but it did as advertised. While we still have some light snow and wintery mix falling down, I finished with a fluffy 4” in Forest Hill and schools are closed :):).

If you’re feeling up to it, post pics/videos from your neck of the woods so we can see how it all played out. I know some spots probably snowverachieved (hey-oohhhhh!!!). Also, with a refreeze coming tonight, I wouldn’t rule out the possibility of a delay on Wednesday. Just throwing it out there!

I’ll be back later with a look at Friday’s snow so stay with me, we’re just getting started!!!!

15/01/2024

EVENING SNOW UPDATE !!!

Now that I’m thawed out from a round of snow golf, let’s talk some weather!!! Not much has changed since my morning post to be honest. Still looking at a spread of 2-4” with a chance for more. For my HCPS friends: while the velvety smooth voice of Jillian Lader has completed phase 1 of the master plan with the 2-hour delay call, I would still expect a closure to be announced at around, ohhh I don’t know, 5:30 tomorrow morning?

Here are the updated short range models along with my highly scientific first call that I’m sticking with. The northern half of Maryland is seeing light snow right now but, expect heavier precip to fill in as we continue through the evening and into the early morning hours. Roads will deteriorate.

If anything changes, I’ll holler atcha boo. Otherwise, I’ll see you in the am!

P.S. Still looking at Friday for another shot at snow! Details in the am

15/01/2024

SNOW UPDATE ❄️ !!!

After some areas got hit with pesky snow bands this morning (causing travel issues for many), the bulk of the action is still to come. Model updates are in and continue to bring freezing cold temps and snow late this afternoon through tomorrow morning.

For all of my Harford County peeps, my official post-it forecast calls for 2-4” of accumulating snow. While it’s not a major hit, this should be more snow than we’ve seen in close to two years 🙂. See below for updates from all of the major models.

For all you HCPS teachers and students, it’s hard for me to imagine that we don’t get a call from the great Jillian Lader, Manager of Communications for Harford County Public Schools. Smells like a 4-day weekend to me! Stay tuned for an update later this evening. As always, I’ll keep you posted!

15/01/2024

HELLO CLARICE

Here she comes. NWS just upped totals, leaving the potential for some spots to get up to 5” of snow!

14/01/2024

National Weather Service is feeling the Tuesday tingles!

14/01/2024

MODELS TRENDING SNOWIER !!!

Good news for snow lovers as overnight model runs are consistent and coming back with snowier solutions for Monday night into Tuesday. While this doesn’t have the potential for huge numbers, it could be the most snow many have seen in quite some time.

I’ll have a full update later this afternoon after futsal, outdoor soccer and lacrosse trainings are done with. Sunday Funday! We might go to Bed, Bath and Beyond too. I don’t know if we’ll have enough time though.

13/01/2024

TUESDAY MORNING SNOW ????

The latest updates are in and while Tuesday’s potential snow totals have dwindled, there is still a strong chance that northeast Maryland could see up to 2 inches of snow out of this. See below for the latest projections from long and short range guidance.

While much is still to be settled and figured out, the frigid cold temps and timing of this system (Monday night into Tuesday) could certainly cause hazardous driving conditions and affect schools on Tuesday morning.

In other weather news, we could see some snow showers tomorrow morning/afternoon and we are continuing to keep our eyes on another shot at snow on Friday this week!!!!

As always, check back for updates throughout the 3-day weekend. I’ll keep you posted!!!!

12/01/2024

FLOODS…SNOW…EARLY DISMISSALS…CATS and DOGS LIVING TOGETHER. It’s Friday and we made it baby!

See y’all in the am for an update on all things weather 🙂

12/01/2024

TUESDAY SNOW UPDATE ❄️ ❄️ ❄️ ???

Looking at the latest guidance, most models look to be on board with the idea of frigid temps and winter weather headed to the northeast in the Monday night-Wednesday timeframe next week (see below). The GFS, ICON, UKMET, RGEM (fwiw) and Canadian models all like it while the mighty European model does not. The EURO was actually the first model to sniff this chance at snow out, but has since backed off the past two runs with a whole lot of nada. We will have to watch this storm closely as I think we’ll have a better idea by Saturday as many snow lovers are hoping to see the Euro jump back on board.

While this isn’t going to be “the big one” by any means, it still has plenty of potential to dump a number of inches of snow on Harford County, or as I like to call it “Little America”, along with much of the northeast.

Stay with me folks. As always, I’ll keep you posted!!!

11/01/2024

MONDAY PM - TUESDAY SNOW ?????

Still there and looking beautiful.…

10/01/2024

SNOW NEXT WEEK ????

I’ve been watching this next chance at snow for 3 days now and the European model (1st pic) continues to like the idea of snow at the start of next week. The GFS (2nd pic) has bent the knee and trended towards the idea as well. Timing is up for debate as we are a long way out but it looks to be late Monday into Tuesday as of now.

As always, things can change. Stay with me friends, I’ll keep you posted!

10/01/2024

SMELLS LIKE A CLOSURE….

Dangerous conditions out there in Harford County tonight and the numbers keep growing. While the winds haven’t been as strong as advertised, the rain and flooding is living up to the hype. My sump-pump is putting in work! Unless there is a drastic improvement and waters recede by tomorrow morning, I can’t imagine sending buses and children out in this mess. I’d expect a call from JL Cool J in the am.

10/01/2024

The sultry voice of Jillian Lader, Manager of Communications for Harford County Public Schools does it again! The wind gusts could get intense tonight. Lots of trees down in northern Harford already. Enjoy the delay teachers and students, and stay safe 🙂.

09/01/2024

While we have strong winds and heavy rain headed our way that could definitely cause problems in the northeast with power outages, flooding, and downed trees, etc, I’m still looking at the cold that is headed our way and our next chance of snow on Tuesday-Wednesday next week. Long way out so, you know…..

08/01/2024

For all my HCPS brethren dismissing 3 hours early tomorrow…..

Along with the rain, wind gusts could get gnarly tomorrow evening into Wednesday (see below). Talk to me Jilly Bear!!!!!!!

08/01/2024

JANUARY 16 / 17 ?????

While it looks like we have a couple of rain storms to get through this week and this coming weekend, I’ve been watching the 16th/17th time period for a day or two now and it continues to peak my interest as a possible snow event for the mid-Atlantic.

Now this is a long ways out so you know the deal. But hey teachers and students, at least were not talking about weekend snow!

Stay with me y’all, I’ll keep you posted!

07/01/2024

WELCOME….the huddled masses, yearning to breathe free!

Thanks to all of my new followers and the OGs from back in the day when we shook the pillars of heaven here on facebook world. If you just jumped on board and you’re not sure what the hell is going on, scroll down through my page to find my manifesto and it’ll give you some insight as to what you’ve gotten yourself into 😂. Lots of action headed our way in January y’all. Let’s get it!!!

06/01/2024

TIME FOR NOWCASTING!!!!

As our storm starts chugging it’s way into central and northeast Maryland, let’s see where we are at.

Looking at the latest model runs (below) and temps, northeastern Maryland, including glorious Harford County still looks to start as snow in the early afternoon and last for a few hours before changing over. As usual, the rain/snow line will be tight and cause a sharp cutoff with many folks in Maryland getting rain while 15 miles away gets snow. Looking at short range guidance, there’s definitely a chance for folks up in the northern edge of Maryland counties to hold off that rain/snow line much longer and see some fairly significant accumulation. Don’t be surprised to get some freezing rain mixed in as the changeover to rain occurs later today.

No one knows for sure how this is going to play out. Some folks will get less then expected, some will get more. My super scientific post-it note forecast could be completely wrong 😂. All I know is, iiiiitttttt’s time!!!!!!!! Stay with me throughout the day for updates. I’ll need your help to let us all know how things are going in your area. We are a team!!!!!

05/01/2024

LUNCHTIME UPDATE !!

Afternoon updates of the NAM and RGEM like the idea of a quick hit of snow for much of the northern half of MD, from around 10-2 on Saturday. Latest updates from the GFS and Canadian agree. See below!

05/01/2024

MORNING UPDATE

Below you will find last nights updates from short and long range guidance. The European model continues to suck while the GFS trended to suckville as well for most of you fellow snow lovers. The Canadian continues to be an outlier with a snowier outcome for many here in northeastern MD. The NAM and HRRR (short range) looked ok late last night (pictures below) but this morning’s run was less than desirable for snow. The NWS actually upped their projections for the northern portion of MD a bit so we’ll have to see what today brings….

I’m still thinking much of Harford County will see this baby start as snow around 10am-noon on Saturday with a changeover to rain by later in the afternoon. Don’t be surprised if freezing rain mixes in before the changeover to all rain. Out of here by Saturday night. I’ll update tonight with more details!! Now, off for some post-grad work before angry 16 year olds arise from their dungeons for the day!

04/01/2024

Quick Lunch Update

Afternoon runs came in with the low ticking to the south. You can see it pretty clearly with the GFS and NAM pics below. This doesn’t mean a change to big snow totals but a better chance at seeing some fluffy white goodness. I like the trend. Still a pretty quick changeover to rain but, I’m happy to see the blue! You know how it goes with following model runs: Flip flop floodle doo, flip flop flee. Click on the pics for details.

04/01/2024

QUICK UPDATE!

NWS have come out with their first call. Overnight runs have come in and don’t look great for snow lovers. We will start to watch the NAM as well, which will become more trustworthy as we get closer. Click the pics below for brief descriptions.

I will continue to monitor and update with my call for Harford County totals coming soon. And no my fellow teachers, this one will not affect schools on Monday as I’m sure you already figured. As I’ve mentioned before, January looks to be action packed! Sorry to be so brief but you know….life!

04/01/2024

EVENING UPDATE !!!!!

As we inch our way closer to Saturday, here are the latest updates. While the storm to be, is moving faster and not as powerful as once hoped (for snow lovers), many are still in the game to see some accumulating snow. Let it be known, this is not a raid the grocery store storm. Leave some chicken ramen for the rest of us. What will stick and what will not is up in the air. Where the rain/snow line goes exactly is up in the air. Lots of question marks…….

To recap today’s events in weather-nerd land: this afternoon’s runs of the European model and GFS sent many snow lovers down a spiral of depression. The Euro is the pits. The 18z update just came out and shifted even further NW. The good news is that the evening GFS run brought us back to life! The Canadian model continues to be the apple of my eye and the ICON and UKMET seemed like pretty reasonable solutions. You can see images below from all of these models with potential totals and descriptions.

To wrap up where we are: I believe the northern half of Maryland still has a good shot to see some decent snow, especially to the west. There will be a sharp cut off running parallel to I-95. Where that will be exactly is the hard part. Just a few miles will make a big difference. We are still looking at a Saturday afternoon-Sunday morning event.

2 days to go folks. Stay with me. As always, I’ll keep you posted!

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SNOOOWWWW !!!!!!

DON'T GIVE UP ON WINTER YET After yet another underwhelming snow for northeast MD, you might be ready to give up on winter but we aren't there just yet. Two things: 1) There is a chance of snow showers coming through early Monday morning. HRRR and NAM are both showing them with a trace-1' possible. Enough for a delay? Maybe..... 2) While we might warm up later this week, don't throw in the towel on winter just yet. The end of February looks active and cold enough for snow. I'll take a look at the potential Monday morning snow showers at halftime of the Super Bowl and drop a quick update here on Facebook. If you're watching, enjoy the game! #thepohlnerexpress #pohlnerspostits

LIVE UPDATE!!!!!!

Salt lines are on the roads!!

It's snowing!!!!!!

SNOW!!!!!! It's not much but I'm excited!

Monday morning present?

SNOW ON MONDAY?????????? With temps warming up big-time through Friday this seems impossible but, multiple models are in agreement 4 days out so I will be tracking. C'mon snow!

I smell a Post-It coming....

Get ready Harford County residents. Monday feels like the day.

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It's snowing!!!!!!

Monday morning present?

I smell a Post-It coming....

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