NJWeather South Hunterdon County

25/10/2025

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
240 PM EDT Sat Oct 25 2025
SYNOPSIS...
The center of strong high pressure shifts to our north tonight and
Sunday before gradually weakening through the middle of next week. Low pressure develops off the coast of the Carolinas later Monday before tracking out to sea, then another low develops off the southern Mid-Atlantic coast Tuesday into Wednesday. This storm moves northward Thursday before moving away from our area into Friday. A couple of weak fronts may then move through Friday into the start of next weekend.

/THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Sensible weather will continue through the end of the weekend as
surface high pressure remains located over eastern Canada. Aloft, a
few weak impulses embedded in a trough over New England are expected to pass through the Mid-Atlantic region tonight into Sunday as well. No precipitation is expected aside for a stray sprinkle north and west. Otherwise, should just see an increase in clouds later this afternoon into this evening, clearing out after midnight, before increasing again by mid-day on Sunday. Lows will mainly range in the mid/upper 30s to low 40s with highs in the mid/upper 50s to low 60s.

The biggest (and most challenging) aspect to the forecast will be
tonight`s temperatures and whether frost develops or not. As the
area will be socked in clouds for the first half of the night,
temperatures will be slow to cool at first. Although upstream cloud
trends depict a thick layer of clouds encompassing the area early
on, most guidance indicates that skies should become mostly clear
after midnight from west to east. In fact, even the 90th percentile
of the HREF total cloud cover clears out most of southern PA,
southern NJ and the northern Delmarva. With this in mind, have
enough confidence that skies should become mostly clear later on. As a result, opted to issue Frost Advisories from 2 AM to 9 AM Sunday for areas outside of the immediate urban corridor where both the growing season remains active and where low temperatures should fall into the mid 30s.

SkyWarn Trained Spotter - HHNJ-015
R.A.C.E./A.R.E.S. KB2ZZW

25/10/2025

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
216 PM EDT Sat Oct 25 2025
..FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Temperatures falling into the mid 30s will result in frost
formation.

* WHERE...Mercer, Western Monmouth, Atlantic, Camden, Cumberland, Gloucester, Northwestern Burlington, Ocean, and Southeastern Burlington Counties.

* WHEN...From 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Frost could harm sensitive outdoor vegetation. Sensitive outdoor plants may be killed if left uncovered.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold.

SkyWarn Trained Spotter - HHNJ-015
R.A.C.E./A.R.E.S. KB2ZZW

25/10/2025

We are doing well this Year with our Rain Fall with out getting to much.

Below is the latest US Drought Monitor released today. Roughly 78.4% of our area is considered at least abnormally dry, where roughly 43.8% of the area is now considered in a moderate or severe drought.

20/10/2025

Good Monday morning! Showers around this morning, then a gusty westerly breeze develops through the day. It turns warmer Tuesday ahead of a cold front, which then brings some showers Tuesday night. Have a great day!

19/10/2025

**Outdated information**

A cold front will cross the region overnight. The SPC has maintained a Marginal risk for severe weather for the overnight period. ⚡️

19/10/2025

19/10/2025

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
227 PM EDT Sun Oct 19 2025
SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move across the area later tonight night into
early Monday morning. High pressure will briefly nose its way into
the Mid Atlantic region Monday night from the south, before another cold front moves across the area Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning. Another weak front may cross the area Thursday, before high pressure builds into the region later Friday into Saturday.

/THROUGH MONDAY/...
Strong showers and thunderstorms are possible overnight as a
cold front crosses our area.

Timing: Expecting an initial narrow band of showers (and a few
embedded thunderstorms) to cross over the region from 02 to 07Z
(10 PM to 3 AM EDT). The main period of concern with regards to
hazards will be with this initial line. After the initial line,
could have lingering broad area of showers could linger for a
few hours later.

The primary hazard will be gusty damaging winds. With strong
winds just above the boundary layer, if an updraft can get tall
enough, some of those stronger winds could mix down. Given the
large values of bulk shear, including veering directional shear,
there is a small risk for tornadoes. The risk would be limited
to brief QLCS-type tornadoes. This threat is very conditional,
given the very limited instability. There remains a 2 percent
tornado risk for much of our area given the magnitude of the
shear combined with an area of better moisture overnight and
early Monday morning.

***** Very limited chance of Tornado Formation ******* This is a concern with EVERY front like this that comes through. You should ALWAYS listen to National Weather Service for the latest Sever Weather info.

14/10/2025

12/10/2025

12/10/2025

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
402 PM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025
SYNOPSIS...
A coastal storm will affect the region through Monday bringing
significant impacts to parts of our area. Improving conditions
expected by Tuesday as the storm weakens and moves out to sea.
High pressure will begin building back into the region during
the middle to end of next week.

In terms of rainfall, the forecast continues to trend downward as a
more strung out, double barrel low has developed. Main concern with
this system is the tidal flooding and wind, with the remaining a
limited tertiary threat. So far, about an inch of rain has fallen
along the coast. When we`re all said and done, the coast will end up
with about 1.5 to 3 inches, with around a half inch to 1.5 inches
elsewhere. This will fall all over a 36-48 hour period though, with
this looking like a more beneficial rain rather than a significant
freshwater flood event.

In terms of how the timing looks, there will be a push of more
moderate rain overspreading the region this evening into the
overnight hours. That will continue through the morning hours, with
more light and scattered wrap-around showers expected during the
daytime hours tomorrow on the backside of the low as it pulls away.
We finally start to dry out later tomorrow night and transition to a
quieter mid-week period.

Winds will be strongest over the next 12 hours or so before dying
down just before daybreak. Tomorrow still will be breezy though but
nothing like today. Gusts inland could get near 30 MPH at times,
with 40 MPH gusts at the immediate coast.

It will be damp and dreary to start the week, with temperatures
tomorrow in the upper 50s/low 60s. There won`t be much of a drop
overnight with temperatures, as lows will be in the low to mid
50s.

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12/10/2025

Latest key messages on significant coastal impacts from a strong coastal storm along the East Coast. weather.gov