23/01/2024
Annual Academy Awards Nominations Predictions (2024):
Woooow. So, I really left this place inactive for a whole 365 days, huh...
Well, anyway, the Oscar nominations announcement are in 8 or less hours, and I always enjoy typing away like a mad man about these 23 categories and my predictions for them regardless of any attention they receive. So, might as well not let this habit die hard.
Let's get on with it. Obviously starting with the categories the average person finds boring just to ensure they read the whole thing.
(also, in case you're curious, I'm ordering these from most to least likely, at least from my perspective)
Best Animated Short:
1. Once Upon a Studio
2. Humo
3. Ninety Five Senses
4. Eeva
5. Letter to a Pig
I watched half of the shortlist for these. So, I'm mainly being biased towards what I watched (since I barely did research for the other ones, which I feel like it's gonna come back to bite me in the ass).
Anyway, Once Upon a Studio is Disney's tribute to themselves for their 100th anniversary, and since last year the worst of the nominees won by sheer virtue of being campaigned by Apple TV, I refuse to believe this won't make it.
Outside of that, Humo/Smoke got a BAFTA nomination, was helmed by a collaborator of Guillermo Del Toro and they're Mexican, so of course I'm rooting for them. Ninety Five Senses was cool and fairly accesible, might as well go for it. Eeva and Letter to a Pig were really cool (especially "Letter", which is my favorite out of the shortlist so far). They're technically not safe and I don't have any real reason to assume they'll be nominated, but like I said, I liked them, so I'm backing them up here.
Best Live Action Short:
1. The Anne Franke Gift Shop
2. Invisible Border
3. The One Note Man
4. Avocado Pit
5. The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar
I've no clue about this category, I really just cherry-picked names here and went with one of the big ones (Almodovar's Strange Way of Life or Wes Anderson's Henry Sugar), because I just don't think both will make it in for whatever reason. So, yeah, there's that.
Best Documentary Short:
1. The ABCs of Book Burning
2. Barber of Little Rock
3. Nai Nai & Wai Po
4. The Last Song From Kabul
5. The Last Repair Shop
Again, my lazy-ass barely did research this year, but I did look up some precursors on top of cherry-picking names. I believe some, if not all of these have it (my brain is fried, sorry). Could still easily go 0/5 here, but it's a humble attempt.
Best Documentary Feature:
1. 20 Days in Mariupol
2. Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie
3. American Symphony
4. Eternal Memory
5. Beyond Utopia
I tried to do more of my homework here. "20 Days" is in the International Feature shortlist and has gotten a few nods around the precursors, so that's a no-brainer. Still is somewhat popular and hey, it's about Michael J. Fox! Might as well shoot your shot.
I have no clue what the other 3 are about, but in 2020 a documentary called American Factory was nominated and won, and this year we have an American Symphony too. so, there's that. Beyond Utopia and Eternal Memory are cool titles. Yeah, that's all I have. Moving on.
Best Sound:
1. Oppenheimer
2. Ferrari
3. Napoleon
4. Maestro
5. Killers of The Flower Moon
The first of many tech categories. Oppenheimer is winning this, don't even think twice about it. Ferrari go vroom vroom and Napoleon go boom. So, those make sense (they've also been nominated in the precursors, lol. I'm not winging it on EVERY category). Maestro & Killers of The Flower Moon just kind of make sense, since they're vying for Best Picture too, and I doubt the prestigious Academt will give Mission Impossible or The Killer consideration (they should, but they won't). So, that's it.
Best Visual Effects:
1. Guardians of The Galaxy Vol. 3
2. Godzilla Minus One
3. Napoleon
4. The Creator
5. Poor Things
INSANE Oppenheimer and The Killer got left off, but whatevs...
Guardians and Godzilla are obvious ones (GODZILLA SWEEP, BABY). Napoleon would also make sense, not only due to their explosions, but due to their vast landscape VFX shots as well (Where TF is The Killer in the shortlist then, Academy?! HUH?!)
Anywho... The Creator seems like that one not-so-great movie with terrific effects that gets acknowledged every year, so, there ya go. Finally, out of the vfx shortlist there are 3 main contenders, imo: Spiderverse, Society of The Snow and Poor Things. The foolish thing might be going for Poor Things, since Spiderverse might be a more sensible choice (and not without precedent or precursors!), but I'm doing it, because Poor Things is my #2 of the year.
Best Make-up & Hair-Styling:
1. Poor Things
2. Barbie
3. Maestro
4. Oppenheimer
5. Ferrari
I don't know if I need to add anything here. These five just make a lot of sense. They're on the shortlist, they've gotten some nods on their Guild, Baftas and Critic's Choice. Really, why wouldn't you? Make-up are integral to Poor Things & Barbie's fantasy worlds, Maestro, Oppenheimer & Ferrari are transformational for their main actors. I feel like something will creep up to ruin these 5 for me, but what can you do about it?
Best Costume Design:
1. Poor Things
2. Barbie
3. Oppenheimer
4. Napoleon
5. Wonka
First four make a lot of sense. They got nods and are no-brainers. The last spot is one I'm playing with. Logic dictates I go with Maestro (you know, a Best Picture contender) or The Color Purple, but I always get screwed by something unexpected, so out of spite I'm going with Wonka, even though they're working with less momentum than the other 4.
Best Production Design:
1. Barbie
2. Poor Things
3. Killers of The Flower Moon
4. Oppenheimer
5. The Zone of Interest
Barbie, Poor Things, KOTFM and Oppenheimer should be obvious lock-ins. I feel the last spot is a triple threat between something unexpected from the shortlist, Maestro or The Zone of Interest. My logic here is to follow the BAFTA push.
What is the BAFTA push you may ask? Well, it's this strange phenomenon where an underdog contender in awards season (more often than not a Foreign Language film for the Oscars) gets a great deal of nominations at the BAFTAs and end up overperforming come Oscar nominations. It has happened with Cold War, Parasite, Another Round, Drive My Car and AQOTWF without mistake on the last 5 years. This doesn't always lend to tech categories, but this year, The Zone of Interest is my bet for the BAFTA push. It *has* to happen, it just KEEPS happening. So, Zone of Interest it is.
Best Original Song:
1. I'm Just Ken (Barbie)
2. What Was I Made For? (Barbie)
3. Road To Freedom (Rustin)
4. The Fire Inside (Flamin' Hot)
5. Dear Alien Who Art In Heaven (Asteroid City)
Listen, I know this year there are THREE goddamn Barbie songs contending. The best one (I'm Just Ken), the one annoying Billie Eilish stans pretend is the best one (What Was I Made For?) and... the other one (Dance The Night). However, (and this might be a mistake) I'm just not buying it. Not 3 of them. No way. So, I'm sacking Dance The Night.
Road To Freedom is a power ballad just ACHING for a nomination and it's made by Lenny Kravitz. Am I gonna go his way? Yes, siree. Then there's "The Fire Inside". The song from the Cheetos movie? Yeah. Why you ask? Because it's Diane Warren. This is HER category. She's royalty here. Last year I was a contrarian and didn't go with her and I was wrong. Not making that mistake again.
Finally, I'm just going with a personal favorite. Dear Alien Who Art In Heaven was a lovely song in a lovely scene from a lovely movie. Wes is alien (hehe) to this category, but I'm rooting for an upset.
Best Original Score:
1. Oppenheimer
2. Killers of The Flower Moon
3. Spiderman: Across The Spiderverse
4. Poor Things
5. The Zone of Interest
The first four have nominations out the w***o. Hell, Goransson is the main contender to win it all. Yeah, I'm not doubting them. The last spot is the tricky one here, 'cause some crustfckery might just happen.
It might be good crustfckery, like The Boy and The Heron being a pleasant shocker. It might be bad crustfckery, like John Williams swooping in with Indy 5 for another nomination. Right now, though, I'm sticking with the BAFTA push for The Zone of Interest. I haven't watched it, nor had a chance to, but there's plenty of praise surrounding the score. So, again, trust the BAFTA push.
Do keep in mind, though. Any of those 3 could make it. Hell, Spiderverse could even get knocked out. Now THAT would be true crustfckery. I also don't feel super safe regarding Poor Things, if only because they're a first-timing score composers, but well, we'll see...
Best Editing:
1. Oppenheimer
2. Killers of The Flower Moon
3. The Holdovers
4. Poor Things
5. Anatomy of a Fall
Jennifer Lame is winning this for Oppenheimer, and Thelma fcking Schoonmaker is the GOAT. Don't doubt them, don't even joke about it. Gotta keep in mind, Best Editing tends to be code for Best Picture contenders, so that makes me go with Poor Things and The Holdovers in particular. The last spot is up for grabs, imo. Any other option only has one precursor. There's no favorites here. I'm going with Anatomy of a Fall (though I probably should go with The Zone of Interest and the BAFTA pus, shouldn't I?). I might regret it, especially if the Academy fcks it all over and goes with Maestro instead, but I'm hoping for a late surge of support for Anatomy and Triet. So, there's that. Fingers crossed.
Best International Feature:
1. The Zone of Interest
2. 20 Days in Mariupol
3. Society of The Snow
4. The Taste of Things
5. Fallen Leaves
The top 2 are lock-ins, imo. Society of The Snow made some tech shortlists, showing it has momentum going. The Taste of Things is French, so I'm going with that and the last spot is just me going with a favorite. Fallen Leaves was lovely. Could it get snubbed? Absolutely. Perfect Days might swoop in and save dozens of jobs for Neon campaigners (who have done a S**T job with it), I'd also not be surprised if the committee pulls some crustfckery here too and some unexpected contender from the shortlist destroys all precursor logic and gets in here. If any of them do it, I hope it's my fellow patriot Lila Aviles, but momentum ain't looking too good for her. Oh, well...
Best Animated Feature:
1. The Boy and The Heron
2. Spiderman: Across The Spiderverse
3. Elemental
4. Suzume
5. Chicken Run: Dawn of The Nugget
The award is up for grabs between Spooderman and Boy and The Heron. They're obviously making it. Elemental overperformed just enough in the box office for Pixar to stay alive in the race, so they're making it. The bottom 2 I have no clue about. It's about picking child-friendly but not too child-friendly (you know, since voters often don't bother with these). Chicken Run has the benefit of Netflix backing it, so that makes sense to me, and Suzume... idk. I'm just betting on it.
Best Cinematography:
1. Hoyte van Hoytema - Oppenheimer
2. Robbie Ryan - Poor Things
3. Rodrigo Prieto - KOTFM
4. Matthew Libatique - Maestro
5. Lukasz Sal - The Zone of Interest
First 4 have gotten the right precursors (well, the ASC). Lukasz Sal is my pick for the fith spot, because, again, BAFTA push. I'll be damned if it doesn't happen.
Best Original Screenplay:
1. The Holdovers
2. Past Lives
3. Anatomy of a Fall
4. Maestro
5. May December
The race for this is between Past Lives and The Holdovers, so they have to be here. Anatomy of a Fall and Maestro have that BP momentum going, so they're in too. May December went from being a serious contender to being on a lifeline, but I'd like to think they're still pulling through for this award at least. If I have to see that fcking sport shoes movie because of snobbery from the Academy, I'm getting violent.
Best Adapted Screenplay:
1. Oppenheimer
2. Killers Of The Flower Moon
3. Poor Things
4. Barbie
5. American Fiction
I'm pulling my hair out with this one (and every other category after this). Oppenheimer, KOTFM and Poor Things SHOULD be locked in. Barbie was the front-runner for Original Screenplay (which was B.S.) before the Academy set things straight for once. There's a chance their support falters here since Adapted was the one stacked category this year, but I'm betting it's too big to die.
Finally, we have the last spot, which is KILLING ME. Logic dictates American Fiction is THAT one Best Picture nominee with a bonus nomination or two. It won at the Critics Choice (apparently...), so it'd be ludicrous to not predict them... but... but the BAFTA push. The Zone of Interest is right there. It EASILY could be them, but alas I'm playing it safe here (and calling myself an idiot 5 hours later).
Best Supporting Actress
1. Da'Vine Joy Randolph - The Holdovers
2. Emily Blunt - Oppenheimer
3. Jodie Foster - Nyad
4. Sandra Huller - The Zone of Interest
5. Julianne Moore - May December
Da'Vine is here to win. There's no doubt about that. The other 4 spots just make my head spin. See, Blunt is making it. She's on the BP front-runner and has all 4 major precursors (Globes, Critics Choice, SAG and BAFTAs, Danielle Brooks for The Color Purple has the precursors too, but her movie is waning in momentum. She could get bamboozled here. Foster has 3 precursors (Globes, Critics, SAG), but she's on a movie that doesn't exist, being the possible sole nod for it. So, SHE's the one getting bamboozled right?
Oh, and there's the last spot. Is America Ferrera for Barbie happening? Maybe...? There's no correlation on the voting groups the Globes and CC (which are the precursors she has). So, she could easily miss out, but what do we have left? Rosamund Pike in Saltburn? She has Globes and BAFTA. Claire For in All of Us Strangers? She only has BAFTA. Penelope Cruz in Ferrari? Only SAG. Will the Academy give May December another chance? Maybe???Again, WTF is this race?!
So, this is the one bit I kept re-writing over and over, and here's my final answer: Ferrera ain't making it, nor Pike (Saltburn has no momentum, but could admittedly swoop in last second). I'm fully predicting a full The Color Purple snub, so I'm not going with Brooks. I AM, however, betting on Foster just 'cause she seems too consistent of a pick in spite of being a sole nominee. As for the final two? I'm going all in on two risky bets. Sandra Huller pulling a ScarJo and getting in Supporting for The Zone of Interest (she has the BAFTA push on her side) and Julianne Moore for May December. I've a feeling I could only get 2/5 here, but this is an abnormally difficult year for this category.
Best Supporting Actor:
1. Robert Downey Jr. - Oppenheimer
2. Ryan Gosling - Barbie
3. Robert De Niro - KOTFM
4. Mark Ruffalo - Poor Things
5. Dominic Sessa - The Holdovers
The three Rs have all the precursors (and Downey Jr is 2/5 in terms of winning). The tricky waters here are the 4 contenders for the last 2 spots: Willem Dafoe and Mark Ruffalo for Poor Things, Dominic Sessa for The Holdovers and Sterling K. Brown for American Fiction.
All men have their pros and cons going for them, so, really, you can go with any of them.
Technically, Dafoe and Ruffalo are what make more sense. The Academy has been feeling trigger-happy on double nominations and Poor Things on recent years and could easily embrace both men. However, I'm feeling some crustfckery happening here. I'm possibly trying to think too outside the box, because logic dictates Sessa is too risky of a nominee. He only has BAFA, and The Academy often blow off young newcomers, but he's in a movie that has nothing but upwards momentum. So, I'm picking him ahead of Dafoe, since out of the two Poor Things men, Ruffalo has the showier role and seems a little more beloved by The Academy in recent years. If May December were to overperform, though (unlikely) I'm praying for Charles Melton pulling a miracle here.
Best Actress:
1. Emma Stone - Poor Things
2. Lily Gladstone - KOTFM
3. Sandra Huller - Anatomy of a Fall
4. Margot Robbie - Barbie
5. Greta Lee - Past Lives
The award is between Lily and Emma, they're in. Sandra Huller has all but SAG which is ludicrous but she still feels relatively safe. Margot Robbie is on the biggest movie of the year and has all precursors. That said, I feel like if anyone here is getting Tom Hank'sed (Captain Phillips in 2014), it could be her and someone else I'll get to, so she's fourth, but still in, imo.
I'm taking a huge risk for the last spot, though. I'm calling for a last surge in a Greta Lee push for Past Lives, with Carey Mulligan taking the fall. My logic is this: The Academy chose McDormand for a third time in 2021 instead of her for Best Actress, when they had no reason to. She's a very likely choice for the Tom Hanks spot. Maybe Maestro will keep enough momentum to keep her in play, but I'm taking this risk anyway.
Best Actor:
1. Cillian Murphy - Oppenheimer
2. Paul Giamatti - The Holdovers
3. Bradley Cooper - Maestro
4. Jeffrey Wright - American Fiction
5. Colman Domingo - Rustin
This is the safest line-up possible. I kept getting this feeling that either Wright or Domingo might get snubbed (and I STILL have it), but there's no clear answer for which of them is missing. It could be Domingo, since he might be the only nod for his movie if Lenny Kravitz doesn't come through. It could be Wright, since he has less precursors than Domingo. The problem is, if not them WHO?
Andrew Scott didn't get any nods, DiCaprio has kept losing momentum (missing BAFTA and SAGs), Keoughan only has BAFTA... so who? I thought of Teo-Yoo in Past Lives puling an upset, but I'll play it safe for now and regret it later.
Best Director:
1. Christopher Nolan - Oppenheimer
2. Martin Scorsese - Killers of The Flower Moon
3. Yorgos Lanthimos - Poor Things
4. Jonathan Glazer - The Zone of Interest
5. Alexander Payne - Anatomy of a Fall
The single hardest category to full predict. On top of these 5 you also have Greta Gerwig (Barbie), Justine Triet (Anatomy of a Fall) and Bradley Cooper (Maestro) threatening to cause chaos. All of them have any combination of BAFTA, DGA, Globes and Critic's Choice. So, here's my process of thought.
Triet is a little too late (she's my #6 vote). Gerwig might be too mainstream for her to happen again, her snub will be ugly, but I'm feeling it. Cooper is maybe not seen as legitimate enough. So, Glazer, with help of the BAFTA push makes it in.
That said, if anyone is getting Affleck'ed (Argo in 2013), it could be Payne, because what I'm predicting above is ugly. 3 women making legitimate Best Picture contenders, ALL getting snubbed for director in favor of an abuser? The Academy are not above that, but if anyone is taking the fall for the sake of not letting that disaster happen, it could be him. Personally, I'm predicting a Holdovers overperformance, so, I'm keeping him on.
Best Picture:
1. Oppenheimer
2. Killers of The Flower Moon
3. Barbie
4. Poor Things
5. The Holdovers
6. Maestro
7. Anatomy of a Fall
8. American Fiction
9. Past Lives
10. Zone of Interest
This is the PGA Top 10, which NEVER matches, but seriously, if not "Zone", what else? Maybe the BAFTA push doesn't go all the way this time, maybe American Fiction takes a fall, maybe something else ges snubbed in an UGLY fashion, but nothing else; not Color Purple, All of Us Strangers, Nyad or either animated contender (Spiderman, Boy and The Heron) feel legitimate enough with our current knowledge. NOTHING else makes enough sense to replace American Fiction of The Zone of Interest. So, yeah, a "first" in history. What a safe way to end these predictions.
Anyway, that's all for now. I'll make a reaction post after the nominations, but until then, that's all.
(Thanks to anyone who's still here, btw. Sorry for not doing anything, ever.)
