Mr. Konopinski's Weather Channel

  • Home
  • Mr. Konopinski's Weather Channel

Mr. Konopinski's Weather Channel Mr.

Konopinski's Weather Channel is your go to place for weather related issues including major events like hurricanes, tropical storms, snow storms, and other weather phenomenon in Sussex, Morris, Passaic and Warren County in New Jersey.

16/02/2024

Good afternoon
A quick system will move through our region tonight and exit just after breakfast in the morning. 2 to 4 inches for most of Northern NJ with locally over 4 inches. The pocket zone is central NJ who could drastically overperform if the bands of snow arrive. 6 plus easily possible. Stay safe.
Mr. Konopinski

Good morning,Please post totals below!530am update. The band of frozen precip has settled in and northern areas of NJ ar...
13/02/2024

Good morning,

Please post totals below!

530am update. The band of frozen precip has settled in and northern areas of NJ are totally hanging on. Now we wait and see as the day progresses where the heaviest bands line up and see what totals we have. Stay safe.

Mr. Konopinski

Good eveningSmall update. Certain weather models keep predicting a more southern shift. Some more dramatic than others. ...
13/02/2024

Good evening
Small update. Certain weather models keep predicting a more southern shift. Some more dramatic than others. Below are a bunch of model runs that show difference ranges of intense snow. Anyone in that range will be 8 to 12 with higher amounts easily possible. Currently these models have been shifting far enough south it is starting to rapidly decrease totals in Northern Sussex County like High Point. The storm could easily shift xx miles south or xx miles north and chop off the bottom or top of NJ at this point. However I don't believe northern Sussex will get this dramatic cut off. We will have to wait and see exactly where that line of precipation cut off is in the morning. This swath of heavier snow seems to be about 50 to 75 miles wide which is centralized now around route 78. Regardless, stay safe and enjoy the snow even though it will be heavy.
Mr. Konopinski

12/02/2024

Good afternoon,
This is a weather system the models just can't seem to figure out location of the heaviest snow. Let's first talk about timing. Starts around midnight as rain for some in the state. However most counties above i78 will start as snow. The storm will exit around noon on Tuesday. As far as amounts go, 8 to 12 for anyone north is i78. Could someone see over 12 inches, easily. It really depends where the heavier snow sets up. I will be posted during the storm at any radar changes. This could be a dramatic shift across those counties depending. Regardless, it is an easy snow day for everyone in Northern and most of Central NJ.
Stay safe
Mr. Konopinski

11/02/2024

Good evening,
No post tonight for snow totals. I am going to wait until morning. Right now I'd say 4 inches plus for anyone north of i80, but it's more complicated beyond that. Enjoy the game.
Mr. Konopinski

10/02/2024

Good morning
I never post this early about a storm but the current models seem to be showing a frozen precip event for Tuesday. So be on alert for some upcoming posts regarding this system. The possibility of a measurable snowfall event for February Monday night into Tuesday. Stay tuned.
Mr. Konopinski

Good morningA low pressure system is here. I waited a while to post to see if there were any changes to how the models w...
28/01/2024

Good morning
A low pressure system is here. I waited a while to post to see if there were any changes to how the models were handling the high pressure. Keep it simple for everyone. There will be a changeover to a mix or snow after sunset for many north of route 80. However the only areas I see of concern are over 1000 ft and north. So the normal culprits like Highland Lakes, Sparta Mtn, West Milford, High Point could see some accumulations to this storm. For now I will say 1 to 2 inches for those areas are possible. Anyone over 1500ft has the best chance but we will see how the cold air enters the storm. So expect a possible post from me later tonight. As far as school delays go, they are possible for areas effected by the above snow. But the snow should be done before sunrise. Stay safe. Some areas may hold on this morning to a mix for a while until they maybe reach 34 or 35 degrees.
Mr. Konopinski

Good morningA very Interesting system is on its way for tomorrow (Friday). For us in Northern NJ, I do not believe this ...
18/01/2024

Good morning
A very Interesting system is on its way for tomorrow (Friday). For us in Northern NJ, I do not believe this one is the jackpot for us. Below is a bunch of different models and their snowfall prediction for NJ. The areas circled in red are the areas of higher accumulation. The problem is that area can shift up, down, left or right and change where that "band" of heavier snow sets up. The reason for this is an inverted trough and generally with the areas north and south of these troughs recieve less snow totals due to Boeing science stuff which is evident on most model runs. So in simple terms I believe areas north of route 78 will likely recieve 1 to 3 inches with possible areas locally of over 3 inches (more south the better). Areas south of route 78 will be in a 3 to 5 inch range (with maybe a 6 inch somewhere). Temperatures will be in the 20s so expect the precip to stick to everything. If this area of concern shifts north or in any direction, I will post an update about totals. Now for the timing. The real storm seems to arrive by 7am. However, it will be very light with periods of "heavier" (not like 1 inch per hour rates heavy but steadier) and this will most likely take place around noon. The storm should be tapering off around 8pm. The question will be what schools decide to do. Is this snow day worthy? I don't know 100% but it is possible. A delayed opening won't do anything, but possibly an early dismissal depending on the school location with the timing. Many in south jersey will have to close. I will continue to monitor this storm as the day processes. Not as easy of a storm to predict as the last one. Stay safe.
Mr. Konopinski

15/01/2024

Good morning,
A small snow system is coming to our area late tonight (Monday) until tomorrow afternoon (Tuesday). This is a nuisance snow storm. Storm will begin around 7pm but really begin at midnight. The total liquid precip in this storm is only 0.3 to 0.4 inches which means with the temps in the 20s we are looking at least at light powdery snow vs the concrete snow from the last system. A quick 3 to 5 inches for most of Northern NJ with our most northern areas having a possibility of seeing 5+. If this outcome changes I will let everyone know. I do believe schools won't really have a choice but to close. They could totally try and delay and wait to see till morning to make a final decision. However, since the snow will still be falling into the lunch time hours, their hands maybe tied.
Stay safe.
Mr. Konopinski

Good Evening,I am not one to hype storms. However this next event, which to many is "just rain", are seriously underesti...
08/01/2024

Good Evening,
I am not one to hype storms. However this next event, which to many is "just rain", are seriously underestimating the safety concerns associated with this event. This storm will produce blizzard conditions for anyone NW of the center. For us in NJ it will be a rain/wind/flooding event. Rain will begin tomorrow (Tuesday) 10am which may quickly begin as a frozen precip before a switch over with no real accumulation. Followed by an increase in rain intensity as we approach nightfall. In total I would not be surprised to see 2 to 4 inches in additional rainfall. This is 2 to 4 inches on top of over 6 inches of snow or even over 12 inches of snow for many in Sussex County. This rain coupled with winds in excess of 30 to 50mph. I'm not just talking about just gusts here. I would expect major flooding in areas of NJ like Wayne, Lincoln Park, Pequonnock, etc. If you have experienced any flooding in the past, please prepare accordingly. Power outages are also very likely given the soaked ground and wind concerns. Please stay safe and don't take this storm lightly. It is a major cyclone with a central pressure at 979mb. That's equal in pressure to a Cat 2 hurricane. Schools may have to alter schedules as well.
Mr. Konopinski

Good morning!Some solid totals across the Northern Counties. Wantage breaking over a foot of snow. Maybe some delays for...
07/01/2024

Good morning!
Some solid totals across the Northern Counties. Wantage breaking over a foot of snow. Maybe some delays for schools tomorrow? I guess we will see.
Stay safe.
Mr. Konopinski

Good morning,Some snow showers to finish off the morning. Reports of near 12 inches in areas of Sussex and Warren County...
07/01/2024

Good morning,
Some snow showers to finish off the morning. Reports of near 12 inches in areas of Sussex and Warren County. Those bands really did a number on those towns. 6 inches for me in Oak Ridge, NJ. We had a change over for about an hour at 9pm, that packed our totals down. Stay safe on the clean up and be aware of some lingering snow through the day. Heart attack snow out there!
Mr. Konopinski

Good eveningJackpot zone in red. Hearing lots of reports of near or over double digit totals inside this region.Stay saf...
07/01/2024

Good evening
Jackpot zone in red. Hearing lots of reports of near or over double digit totals inside this region.
Stay safe
Mr. Konopinski

06/01/2024

Good evening,
Currently 27 degrees and snowing in Oak Ridge, NJ. Snow has begun for all of NJ as of 4pm. We should start to see accumulations increasing into the night time hours. Stay safe and please post totals and observations here through the night and tomorrow.
Mr. Konopinski

Good morningNo changes to the forecast. Storm should arrive at around 3pm. I will post during the storm with live update...
06/01/2024

Good morning
No changes to the forecast. Storm should arrive at around 3pm. I will post during the storm with live updates and asking totals.
Stay safe
Mr. Konopinski

Picture is what around 3pm will look like on radar.

Good evening,Well looks like a weekend of wintery weather. The storm will arrive in our area (NJ) around dinner time on ...
04/01/2024

Good evening,
Well looks like a weekend of wintery weather. The storm will arrive in our area (NJ) around dinner time on Saturday and should be completely done by breakfast Sunday with a few lingering showers into maybe lunch time. The snowfall rates can be up to or even over an inch an hour in certain sections of NJ over the night time hours. The map posted below is used to show where the rough rain snow line will set up. Areas about 20 miles or so north and south of that line will be areas of mix precip and the lowest accumulations. Below that is all rain. Above that line will be some sharp cut offs depending who will hang onto the snow the longest and not have any mix precip. Areas north of rt 80/287 intersection have the highest possibility of 6 inches or more. Below that intersection will be under 6 inches. So my snowfal totals are as follows: Northern Morris County, Sussex County, northern Passaic County, and northern Warren County will be roughly 5 to 8 inches. Maybe someone gets over 10 inches in extreme NW NJ or the ridge of West Milford/Green Pond, HP or Highland Lakes if the wrap around actually happens that's on a few models. Areas on the southern edge of Morris County will be 3 to 6 and on down till you reach the rain snow line. This will be a heavier quick dump of snow and leave Sunday almost completely clear in the afternoon. Sorry no real potential for any school delays on Monday. Onto the next system mid week after this one is gone. I will update if any changes exist and the storm shifts a few miles West or East which could change the totals.
Stay safe,
Mr. Konopinski

04/01/2024

Good afternoon,
I will post a detailed description of the storm after dinner tonight. I will be discussing timing, location, and snow totals for our Northern NJ area.
Thanks,
Mr. Konopinski

Good evening,No real details yet besides the system seems to be arrive Saturday evening and going into Sunday. If you ar...
03/01/2024

Good evening,
No real details yet besides the system seems to be arrive Saturday evening and going into Sunday. If you are north of this "Fall Line" the NWS is calling it, you have the greatest possibility of snowfall. I will keep everyone updated. More to come Thursday as the system develops and starts to show up on the 84 hour models.
Stay Safe
Mr. Konopinski

01/01/2024

Good morning
Possibily for the first real snowfall of the season this weekend. I am currently monitoring a system for Saturday and or Sunday with potential to drop plowable snowfall. No need to hype up anything as of yet because I have seen storms like this disappear off the weather models in 12 hours. I will keep everyone updated as the storm develops.
HAPPY NEW YEAR!
Mr. Konopinski

Good Afternoon,That was a solid Nor'easter. Thank god that was not frozen precipitation. Here are the totals from Sussex...
18/12/2023

Good Afternoon,
That was a solid Nor'easter. Thank god that was not frozen precipitation. Here are the totals from Sussex and Morris Counties. Temps will continue to slowly drop over night. So be careful on wet surfaces in the morning.
Mr. Konopinski

Good morning,Currently it is 33 degrees in Oak Ridge, NJ. We have changed over to snow/mix. I have attached a radar imag...
11/12/2023

Good morning,
Currently it is 33 degrees in Oak Ridge, NJ. We have changed over to snow/mix. I have attached a radar image at the time of this posting that will show where the snow will fall. Stay safe.
Mr. Konopinski

Good Afternoon Northern NJ,Any morning commuters coming from areas about 800 feet and above, please be careful in the mo...
10/12/2023

Good Afternoon Northern NJ,
Any morning commuters coming from areas about 800 feet and above, please be careful in the morning. Areas of Sussex and Morris County, please check out the attached pictures. Areas of quick heavy snow could fall for you. Models seem to be showing anywhere from 1 to 3 inches. Now what sticks on the ground is really dependent on your location. Higher elevations over 1000ft will see the highest opportunity accumulating snow. The cold air will rush in over night and change the rain we are currently having to snow.
Stay safe
Mr. Konopinski

Finished with about 4 inches in Oak Ridge, NJ. Bands will continue intermittently into the evening. Maybe another 0.5 in...
14/03/2023

Finished with about 4 inches in Oak Ridge, NJ. Bands will continue intermittently into the evening. Maybe another 0.5 inches for certain areas depending on elevation, temperature and banding.

3 inches Oak Ridge NJ as of 825am. The bands are still wrapping around the region.
14/03/2023

3 inches Oak Ridge NJ as of 825am. The bands are still wrapping around the region.

14/03/2023

8am Oak Ridge NJ. Snowing steady.

2 inches in Oak Ridge NJ at just over 900ft and snowing hard as these bands just sit and rotate over the region.
14/03/2023

2 inches in Oak Ridge NJ at just over 900ft and snowing hard as these bands just sit and rotate over the region.

14/03/2023

Good morning
The bands have set up across NJ. Areas 15 miles away have zero and other areas are approaching 2 inches. Be careful if you have to travel in the northern counties at elevation over 800ft.
Mr. Konopinski

Good eveningNow we wait and see what happens with these deformation bands and where they set up as well as how far east ...
14/03/2023

Good evening
Now we wait and see what happens with these deformation bands and where they set up as well as how far east does the low pressure track. No more forecasting. We are in now casting mode and we wait and see. These bands will bring intermittent snow and rain to the area (on and off in intensity) throughout the day on Tuesday. You may wake in the am to only have to clean off your car.
Stay safe.
Mr. Konopinski

13/03/2023

UPDATE!
Good morning,
The models seems to agree the low pressure retrogrades (rotates counter clockwise and moves left) over Cape Code. Some models have that low shifted west over Rhode Island. The westerly shift would cause more snow over NJ. Where this low pressure pauses and retrogrades over will be super important in determining where those backside weather bands happen. I am going to move totals around for NJ. Areas in Northern Passaic County (Ringwood, West Milford) Northern Morris County (Jefferson, Rockaway) and Eastern Areas in Sussex County (Highland Lakes, Vernon, High Point) above 800-1000ft will likely be the ones receiving 3-5 inches of snow. Possibly more depending on banding. Areas on the western and southern portion of the counties will dramatically decrease (Morristown, Washington Twp, Chester, Hampton) are likely to see less snow. I will give these areas 1-3 Inches with certain areas of Morris County not getting any accumulation. Most of this snow will stick to grass, decks, cars, and elevation roadways. The wide range will be due to the elevation and long/lat of your specific town. This is why the NWS Winter Storm Warning for Morris County as of this morning is 4-10 inches because it has to take into account all the information mentioned above. Nothing has changed about the timing as of now. I will keep everyone updates through the storm about this low pressure centralization as well as the banding that will occur over NJ. This March snow storms are inherently challenging because of the surface and millibar temperatures so elevation plays a major factor. If this low starts to track more east, expect a decrease in totals. Stay Safe.
Mr. Konopinski
Mr. Konopinski's Weather Channel

12/03/2023

Good evening
This is one of the hardest storms to "predict" totals for and will be a dynamic system we will have to alter totals for along the way if the storm changes. This system begins Monday morning and will set up a rain snow line near i80 or i287. Monday accumulations are light. During the afternoon/ evening on Monday is when the low pressure moves off shore for the intensification process. The storm will start to move northward Monday late evening/ Tuesday morning. The major or the snow will happen on Tuesday and continue well into Tuesday afternoon. Onto the totals. These are almost sheer guessing at this point with the models not really knowing how the storm will phase with the proper location of the low pressure track but here we go.
Sussex County obviously has the highest probabilities of major snowfall. 6 to 10 inches for Sussex County. Higher totals as north as possible. Northern Morris County will be 3 to 6 and southern Morris County at 2 to 4. The cut off on this system will be dramatic because of the rain/snow line from the temperatures. I will do my best to update during the event. Stay safe.
Mr. Konopinski

Address


Website

Alerts

Be the first to know and let us send you an email when Mr. Konopinski's Weather Channel posts news and promotions. Your email address will not be used for any other purpose, and you can unsubscribe at any time.

Videos

8am Oak Ridge NJ. Snowing steady.

Good morning The bands have set up across NJ. Areas 15 miles away have zero and other areas are approaching 2 inches. Be careful if you have to travel in the northern counties at elevation over 800ft. Mr. Konopinski

Hurricane Ian Fort Myers Beach 1:45pm Over 10 foot storm surge reported on this camera Video Courtesy of Severe Studios

Hurricane Ian Eye Wall Sanibel Island 1:00pm Video Courtesy of Severe Studios

Hurricane Ian Update: Sat. Imagery 9/28/22 9:15am is impressive!

Shortcuts

  • Address
  • Alerts
  • Videos
  • Claim ownership or report listing

  • Want your business to be the top-listed Media Company?

Share