MN Chaser

01/03/2025

Severe weather season is firing up. Already starting to see multi-day convective outlooks and 2%-5% TOR/Hail/Wind outlooks. Next couple days look active in western OK (Sun), all the way up to NE/IA (Mon)

25/02/2025

Really enjoying the new Pivotal Weather beta on mobile 🤩

21/02/2025

Discussion on upcoming weather pattern.

Weekend/Early Next Week
- Two Low pressure systems will brush by north of MN, drawing up warm surface air from south west. SW MN could see 50's on Tuesday! Much of Central MN will see 30's-40's most of the week.
- Aloft, mostly zonal ( west-> east) and NW winds will bring some pockets of moist air in from the west
- This sets us up for a couple potentials for some light rain/mix precip Mon-Wed.

Late Next Week
- High pressure system will move in over central Saskatchewan, towards the end of the week... with clock-wise flow, cooler (but still seasonal) surface temps expected to close out the week.

Disclaimer: using GFS, ECMWF models and some comparison with other Ensembles...these are big picture forecasts MANY days out...things will evolve.

20/02/2025

This is the deepest snow we have seen all season...

13/02/2025

~3ft of frost depth in a lot of the state. Wow!

With the cold...early/solid ice on the lakes has been great for fishing, some more steady snow will be good for Ag...but it's gonna take a while for grounds to thaw this spring for construction. 🥶

The last time there was frost this deep in the state was in 2019. https://www.dnr.state.mn.us/climate/journal/frost-depth-minnesota-winter-2025.html

13/02/2025

Excited to be attending the National Storm Chaser Summit this weekend! Great chance to catch up with folks and meet some new people too.

The summer season is just around the corner!

02/02/2025

Happy Groundhog Day! - Punxsutawney Phil has predicted six more weeks of winter!

However...are we just being PUNX'd? Historical data of Punxsutawney Phil's predictions actually seem GROUND-less -- and his accuracy creates a SHADOW of doubt to his credibility.

Phil's record since 1886:
- Overall accuracy rate: approximately 39%
- Has made around 139 predictions
- Seen his shadow about 108 times (predicting 6 more weeks of winter)
- Not seen his shadow only 21 times (predicting early spring)

Some important context:
- NOAA has analyzed the data and found no reliable correlation between Phil's predictions and actual weather patterns
-The definition of "early spring" vs "six more weeks of winter" is somewhat subjective anyway - and varies by region
- Weather patterns are too complex to be predicted six weeks in advance, especially by a groundhog
- The tradition continues more as a cultural celebration than a scientific forecasting method

Fun fact: Staten Island Chuck, another weather-predicting groundhog, claims a higher accuracy rate (~80%), though this claim is disputed and has less historical data to back it up.

If you want to play it safe, stick with March 20 as the first day of spring!

12/01/2025

Good (early) morning. Snow already starting to fall in the metro area. Here's a pic leaving the ice house a bit ago.

An Alberta Clipper system will bring some more snow to much of MN tonight thru Sunday afternoon.

Accumulation totals have increased slightly...
North of I-94: 3-5" possible
Metro: 2-3"
Southern MN: 1-2" (or less)

Be prepared for cold temps early next week.

09/01/2025

Finally some snow?!?! A chance for a dusting of snow this afternoon (Thurs). Biggest consideration is Sat night into Sun...where a widespread system could bring 1-2" of snow to most areas. Some areas may see 3". Winds will pick up Sun afternoon and may cause some minor blowing snow.

08/01/2025

Happy Earth Rotation Day!

January 8th is celebrated as "Earth's Rotation Day", commemorating the day French physicist Léon Foucault demonstrated the Earth's rotation.

On Feb 3, 1851, Foucault suspended a pendulum (now known as the "Foucault pendulum") from the top of the Panthéon. He demonstrated, as the pendulum swung back and forth, the plane of the pendulum's swing appeared to change over time due to the Earth rotating beneath it...concluding, this was direct visual evidence of the Earth's rotation.

Foucault created an equation to show the time it would take for the pendulum to complete a rotation, for any given latitude. For example, at the Equator, the plane would would never change. While at the North Pole, the plane would complete a full rotation in 24hrs. In Paris, where the demonstration took place, the plane would rotate 270º in 24hrs.

Despite visual evidence, other scientists didn't take him seriously. But Foucault was persistent...even winning favor of Napoleon III, who was a bit of an amateur scientist himself. He was eventually acknowledged by the scientific community, finally electing him into the French Academy of Science...3 years before he died, in 1868.

31/12/2024

04/12/2024

Hey friends! After being heads down on a fun project, excited to be getting back here (more to come on the project too!). Ooof-dah... not great news to share.

Wed Morning: We've got an Arctic front moving through the area early tomorrow (Wed) morning. We should see some light snow (sweepable size accumulation)... and plummeting temperatures. This combo will create some slippery conditions for anyone in a morning commute.

Wed Afternoon: behind the front, very strong NW winds will develop with gusts of 40-50 mph across much of MN. We could see temps fall well below teens during Wed afternoon, then into single digits by evening.
Wind chills: -10 to -20 degrees by Thur morning.

Thur: cold with temps in the teens. Winds should be significantly lighter as a high pressure moves in to settle things down a bit.

28/11/2024

Happy Thanksgiving!

14/10/2024

HAPPY BIRTHDAY to Mrs. MN Chaser!
Fall is here. Brisk mornings this week with widespread frost. Warming trend with a chance for 70º on Thursday! Possible rain in the forecast Friday/weekend.

11/10/2024

The sky is on fire tonight! (all cell phone shots, no edits)

05/10/2024

😬🙂

Copy: warm and dry
Paste: to the forecast for the next 2 weeks

03/10/2024

Happy Thursday! Fantastic wrap to the week and weekend forecast. Temps on the warmer side - 80's on Saturday! Breezy Sat and Sun. Evenings are still in the 40's+ in Twin Cities...but frost warnings are making their way into MN and working their way south.

30/09/2024

Here's your 4 day for the Twin Cities Area. Still holding on to a bit of summer. Warm and Clear. Cooler evenings with not as long of peak heating during the day. Low humidity + strong winds in some areas of MN = Red Flag fire warnings. Be extra careful if you enjoy bonfires this time of year! 🔥