Sept 19, 2024
Video from yesterday... 2x speed. Near Cresco, IA. Was on one of the few severe warned cells. On radar, it actually looked classic supercell w/ hook, but all the low-level supportive shear was too far east. Still cool to see the vertical and horizontal movement of air. Other than some rain, and the stoplight in Mabel, IA....this was the most action I caught on the chase. Got some good photos though, I'll share soon.
Forecast Discussion for Severe Weather Today - Sep 19, 2024
Eastern Minnesota will see a chance for thunderstorms today. If you're looking for a breakdown - here's my analysis before hitting the road for chase day!
Forecast Discussion Aug 25, 2024
An upper level trough and associated shortwave are making their way across the Dakotas. This evening (Sunday) poses a risk of severe weather. All harzards possible. Location is mostly limited to northern MN. A few cells could become supercellular. Wind shear may be a limiting factor in the risk for tornadoes.
Monday, more warm air advection will bring tropical temps to MN intensifying the already large unstable air mass. Dewpoints will remain high as well. As the cold front approaches, storms may begin firing along the MN / Dakota borders as early as 3pm…but major initiation should occur around 5pm. Storms will intensify and move quickly. All hazards possible. The greater risk of any of these storms would be wind gusts up to 70mph and larger hailstones 2” or greater.
Weekly Forecast Discussion - Aug 2, 2024
Quick discussion on weather set up this week. Great weather Mon/Tue. Rain likely on Wed/Thur continuing into Fri. Chance of storms is lower, but if so - more likely Thursday afternoon. Rainfall totals: ~1.00" near Southern MN, 0.50" central MN, 0-0.25" northern MN.
Supercell over Winthrop, MN. Solid rotation #mnwx
GEFS (Ensemble) showing Streamlines (wind flow), very rough Jet stream / High pressure ridge (green) parked over most of western US
mid-latitude flow over the next few days. Low pressure trough visible around frame 8...making its way east over Montana/Dakotas before flattening out. Following after the low pressure should be another ridge of high pressure = Sunshine for the weekend.
Massive rotation. Brush, CO
Massive winds, power out. Tornado Warned. Newton, KS
Currently, staged in Great Bend, KS waiting for first cell (the big one) initiation. Clouds and early convection looking fantastic.
Low pressure (SD) Tues weakening and New low Wed (Iowa)
Weather discussion 5/7/2024:
FEEDBACK: Let me know if this format is helpful, or if you have any feedback like: more to the point, more technical discussion, etc
TUESDAY (today): Small chance of isolated not-too-serve storms this afternoon/evening across SW/Central areas of MN. Northeast of the Twin Cities, stretching down to Rochester area, there is a line of small storms developing moving N/NE. These should move out of the area as the evening goes on. Any storms that do develop should be fairly small and brief... although, the potential for wind gusts and hail is possible. Maybe even a short funnel?! Tornadoes are very unlikely.
Why? One reason, we didn't get enough sky clearing this morning to heat up the ground and create the instability needed. We do have some good wind shear (different speed and direction of wind in different heights of the atmosphere) and moisture (dewpts) to initiate storms.
Parts of Central/Southern MN could see a few of these cumulus clouds graduate and drop some rain... but again, it should be fairly isolated and brief. The eastern edge of MN is the area that could see more 'severe' storms, but for the most part this will be reserved for even further east, south central WI and IL.
WEDNESDAY: Another chance of more widespread, non-severe rain/storms Wed evening.
The Low pressure that is just hanging out to our west will occlude Tues evening thru Wed afternoon. AKA: "wrap a cold blanket around itself and weaken". High above us the polar jet is returning to a more 'normal' meridional flow (west to east) and a jetmax (extra strong part of the jetstream) will pass over Iowa.
This will lead to a surface low pressure strengthening over Iowa Wednesday morning. Later in the day, as the jetmax moves on, it will take the low pressure with it, doing a bit of a 360 one last look at MN... giving us another potential for weather in the evening. Again, doesn't look severe...but could yield more wide spread and longer duration rainfall a
