South Asia SocEcon News (2024)

26/07/2023

Crisis Point: Shared Challenges Plaguing Pakistan and Iran in 2023

* Discord with west

Iran:
-sanctioned about nuclear programs
-major geopolitical rival of US and NATO
in western Asia

Pakistan:
-abandoned by west after betrayal in supporting
Taliban insurgency for 18 years
-IMF, largely funded by US and allies, is indifferent
towards helping Pakistan during its
balance of payments crisis

* Shortage of imports/basics

Iran import shortages:
-wheat, rice, and cooking oil
-steel, aluminum, and plastics. factories not operating at full capacity
and higher prices for goods
-food, medicines, clothing
-water - fight over Helmand river against Afghanistan

Pakistan:
-forex crisis resulting in shortages for:
*food
*energy
*raw resources for pharmaceutical industry
-floods in 2022 that did 30 billion in damage
-only enough forex to cover few weeks of imports

* The collapse

Iran:
-GDP has contracted by around 50% since 2012
-inflation
better to invest in stock market than
keep money in bank account due to inflation
-unemployment 9-15%
-shortages of imported cars, electronics

Pakistan:
-30% inflation per annum
-50% food inflation per annum
-manufacturing lost 7 million jobs
-collapse of many manufacutring industries including textile, auto, phones,
pharmaceuticals, steel, etc.
-energy and fuel shortage

18/04/2022

No one could have predicted what would happen from 2007 to 2022.
Learn what were unbelievable events in politics during this period.

Benazir Bhutto -
She was assassinated.

It is believed that TTP may have been responsible
for her assassination. Ultimately,
it is believed by some to be a plot by
islamists supported by Pakistan military.

In her earlier rule in 90s,
military created Islami-Jamhuri itehad to
remove her from being prime minister.

Asif Ali Zardari -

He became prime minister after getting
sympathy vote following his wife's assassination.

He started as Mister 10%. He ended as Mister 110%.
Name refers to belief he received 10% of every government deal during
his wife's and his rule.

He is not popular like Zulfiqar Ali or Benazir in PPP history.
He is unlikely to be able to return to politics due to lack of charisma
and corruption during his last rule.

Nawaz Sharif -

Corruption scandal ended him up in prison.

Earlier he tried to fire General Pervez Musharraf,
which lead to 1999 military coup.

Supreme court maybe was influenced by military to
ban him from politics.

Imran Khan -

He became first prime minister from Tehreek e Insaf party.

He promised to reduce corruption, build millions of houses,
increase access to education and healthcare

He did increase access to healthcare for millions of
Pakistanis receiving it for first time in history of country.

The government has recovered billions of rupees from
anti corruption investigations under Imran Khan.

Covid pandemic, low tax base and inability to get further
loans for Pakistan disabled him from being able to
finance his promised projects described earlier.

As of date of this post, he is facing a no-confidence
vote in parliament

Trends:
Anti-military prime ministers are gone (Benazir Bhutto, Nawaz Sharif) - (by ban or by assassination).
Unexpected new faces came to power (Asif Ali Zardari, Imran Khan).

31/03/2022

4 countries, 5 women, 7 decades

*Indira Gandhi
-started "Remove Poverty" campaign of government spending by
central government upon the rural and urban poor of India
-during her period, inflation destroyed benefits
from government spending
-became a national leader directly loved by the people,
as center government was source of revenue of "Remove Poverty"
campaign, bypassing the traditionally held power of rural castes
at state and local level
-created an emergency period where she suspended constitutional rights,
dismissed local legislatures, censored the media, declared curfews;
also sterilized millions of people to reduce population growth rate
-allied and supported Bangladesh during its victorious war of independence against Pakistan

*Benazir Bhutto
-became pro-democracy leader after ex*****on of her prime minister father
during dictatorship of General Zia Ul Haq
-became first female prime minister among Islamic countries
-survived a military coup attempt, an uprising in Karachi a major city,
and a schizm within her own PPP party
-affected by allegations of corruptions. Pakistan became
2nd most corrupt nation on the planet during one of her terms.
She was also considered an ineffective administrator.
-became a "symbol for something greater in Pakistani politics" twice in her life.
First, she became leader for restoration of democracy
against longest dictatorship in Pakistani history.
Second, there is a government welfare program which makes
payments to millions of poorest families in Pakistan named
after her. Following her assasination by militants, she became a "patron saint"
of the poor through the welfare program named after her and also
a "martyr of democracy".
-belonged to Pakistan's People's Party, where she supported
privatization and ultimately adopted the idea of social-democracy
moving the party away from its socialist history

*Sirima Bandaranaike
-first female prime minister in the world even ahead of Margaret Thatcher from
the advanced colonising country
-transitioned Sri Lanka to a socialist country, nationalizing banking, industry, trade,
education and media
-survived a military coup and insurrection of radical students
-had nationalist policy, for example switching English to Sinhala as
administrative language, excacbating divide between Sinhala and Tamils
into civil war
-was a great negotiator and a leader in Non-Aligned Movement

*Khalida Zia
-first female PM of Bangladesh (Bangladesh National Party - center-right party)
-achieved pro-entrepreneural policy & economic reforms & restoration of law and order
-provided education to girls (70% illiterate) and food support to poor (1/2 of
Bangladesh's population below poverty line)
-had policy of good relations with all and received international investment in energy, infrastructure and
business

*Sheikh Hasina
-leader of Awami League (center-left party)
-completed some Millenium Development Goals and opened up Telecom to
private sector
-has projects of: improving postal service [after Covid crisis], adding cooling units to postal stations for perishable food items and digitalization of services
-created idea of creating caretaker government before each general election
in order to have diffuse tensions between 2 largest parties about fairness
of elections
-signed 30-year water treaty over Ganges with India
-repealed indemnity to killers of Bangladesh founder and supports
removing laws placed upon Supreme Court that allow people to use religion for politics

18/12/2021

* Afghanistan: What Shariah did

97% poverty rate
mass starvation - some 1 million children could die of starvation by winter
isolation from humanity - Not even ONE COUNTRY recognized the government. not even ONE MUSLIM country recognized the government
racist mono-ethnic government, ethnic violence, massacres, genocide -
Afghanistan is a muli-ethnic, multi-racial country.

Pashtun 42% ,
Tajik/Qizilbash 27%
Hazara/Sayyid 9%
Uzbek 9%
Aimak 4%
Turkmen 3%
Baloch 2%

Out of 33 Taliban ministers, 31 are Pashtun! Only 1 is Shia!

There are massacres of Tajiks in Panjshir and Hazara.

Sunni-Shia violence - for several weeks after Taliban takeover, bombings occurred against Shia mosques.
Shia Hazara have been captured, tortured and killed

Lessons:
There are some people in Muslim coutries like Pakistan who say, "We should have Sharia law and we will become
just like Saudi Arabia".

What really happens? Sharia law makes country like Afghanistan. MASS MISERY AND VIOLENCE

Pakistan is far more similar economically to Afghanistan than ultra wealthy Saudi Arabia.
Which scenario is more likely to happen?

Pakistan, Indonesia, Syria, Iraq are multi-ethnic and multi-sectarian countries. Sharia will cause mass
violence and destruction between ethnicities and sects.

Saudia Arabia has oil, gas, support of US weapons and military, partner with US, India, China, Russia, etc.
Saudi Arabia has multiple advantages that makes it so wealthy. Pakistan, Indonesia, etc. have none of these advantages.
Sharia did not cause Saudi Arabia`s wealth.

Look at other countries under Sharia law:
Sudan - civil war, constant coups and political instability, loss of much territory, population and oil
North of Nigeria - 2 million internal refugees, 10000 deaths since Sharia law started. Sharia North is
the poorest part of Nigeria. Nigeria is one of the largest oil producers on the planet, but 40% of the population
has stunted growth from starvation. Nigeria is one of the top most corrupt countries on the planet.
It has 100 billionaires from oil/government funds in a country where so many people are starving.
Somalia - total failure. mass poverty, starvation, violence. one of the worst countries on planet.

When some Muslims say, "We should have Sharia to become like Saudia Arabia." It actually means let us become like
Afghanistan.

04/10/2021

* 12 ways Pakistan has helped Taliban and intervened in Afghanistan's internal affairs

Pakistan is accused of supporting Taliban since 1996 to 2001 and then later
from 2003 - 2021.

It has been accused for following actions:
* training Taliban
* providing skilled and unskilled people to fight for Taliban
* dressing up Pakistani soldiers and sending them to fight for Taliban
* directing combat
* logistics support - supplying ammunitions, fuel, spares
* weapons - guns, grenades, landmines
* air support - helicopter, drone and air force raids
* treating Taliban members in hospitals
* allowing Taliban to escape into Pakistan during some 20 years of US Nato action in Afghanistan

More recently in Taliban's invasion of Panjshir, Pakistan has been accused of:
* special forces deployment
* use of drones
* use of helicopters

The latest accusations above come including from another neighbor of Afghanistan,
Iran which has been monitoring the situation in its neighbor since decades.

An Afghani civilian who fled from Kabul to Panjshir said on a video that Panjshir resistance
encountered Pakistani drones and then fled into safer positions.

Strongest evidence against Pakistan:
1) Pakistani anti personnel and anti vehicle landmines have been found in Afghanistan
2) 30 trucks spotted passing from Pakistan to Afghanistan in 2001 carrying ammunition, grenades, etc. 30 trucks
is a large number, making this a stronger piece of evidence.
3) credible witness. UN Human Rights Watch has reported Pakistani collaboration with Taliban since 2001
4) logistics support - fuel, spares, ammunition - i.e. level of logistics support that the Taliban could not have
found on black market. It could only be possible with foreign support
5) a Taliban fighter captured in Panjshir by National Resistance Front forces had a Pakistani tax ID

The Army motto of Pakistan after 1977 military coup of Islamist Zia ul Haqq changed to
an Islamist motto. The goal of the Pakistan army as per this motto is a global fight in the name of religion.

The world is finally taking these accusations to be more believable and actionable.
Some are now considering taking action against Pakistan.

Sanctions have been suggested against Pakistan. These are based on following reasons:
1) support for terror
2) aggresion, breach of peace - against United Nations CHarter
3) intervention - basic international law principle

Several people in influential western countries have argued for sanctioning Pakistan.

This includes:
1) Canada's first ambassador to Afghanistan
2) 22 US Republican Senators

Some Democrat Senators also asked for an investigation into Pakistan's role in supporting Taliban.

Indian lobby is also influential in both Republican and Democrat parties. It is encouraging sanctions against Pakistan.

04/10/2021

* Why Pakistan is key to remove the Taliban government from Afghanistan

Other countries in region, Iran, India, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan,
Russia, China, Uzbekistan, etc. benefit from an inclusive, peaceful and more secular government
in Afghanistan.

Pakistan is the only neighbor that supports the unstable, terrorist, extremist Taliban.

If Pakistan stops supporting Taliban, it will lose its only support.

Pakistan helped Taliban gain power in the first place in 1996 and again in the Blitzkrieg it organized in August 2021.
Without Pakistan, Taliban has no major financial or military support.

Taliban cannot stay in power by itself:
Taliban formed a largely mono-ethnic mono-sectarian government which cannot stay in power without outside support.
97% of Afghanis are facing starvation. This is an unstable situation.
In 1990s, Afghanistan had -5% GDP growth rate per year under Taliban's taxation policy of 50% and extreme regulations
from Sharia law affecting all aspects of business. Taliban cannot run an economy.
In 1990s, some 8 million Afghanis were dependant on foreign aid for food. Taliban cannot take care of most basic needs. They
can handle gaining power and Sharia - hardly any government functions.

After losing support from Pakistan, the Taliban would have drug trade and selling captured US military equipment as its
only major sources of income. Furthermore, such sources of income would make it completely illegitimate before the world community.

After Taliban losing support from Pakistan, the Afghan people would find it much easier to do an uprising against the Taliban.
They could form a new government of their own choosing, one which is more acceptable to regional countries and the world.

04/10/2021

* 6 actions that can finally be taken against Pakistan for its support of Taliban in order
to save Afghanistan

The world does not need to sit helplessly as Pakistan's interference
further destabalizes Afghanistan and puts its population under one of the world's
most wretched tyrannies.

Action can be taken that can finally relieve the long suffering of Afghanistan
under Pakistan's interference.

#1 FATF greylist -
FATF or Financial Action Task Force is a set of rules to help regulate finances within a country
in order to prevent and control finances used for the purpose of terrorism.

Imran Khan had taken it as a goal of his administration to implement the FATF inside
Pakistan and remove Pakistan from the greylist.

To keep Pakistan Pakistan on the greylist destroys a project
which is personally important to Imran Khan's politics and pride.

There are important consequences of being put on the greylist:
1) cut off of relations from international aid agencies such as IMF
2) lowering of rating of country
3) disfavoring targeted country as a trade partner
4) difficulty for targeted country to get investment, and consequently
expected shrinking economy

Action against a country can be elevated to being put on the blacklist.
This includes nations such as Iran and Norht Korea. Both are under sanctions.

#2 withold financial assistance to Pakistan -

Pakistan is one of the biggest aid recipients of US alongside
Israel, Egypt and formerly Afghanistan

Pakistan is highly indebted nation with debt almost reaching now 100%. It needs financial assistance
just to make payments on interest of previous loans. This money also can be used for
government spending, and ultimately as a stimulus for the Pakistan economy.
The country can also not pay for imports necessary including for staple foods, for which
Pakistan is not self-sufficient.

#3 not allow IMF to release funds to Pakistan -

The US is a major supplier of IMF funds and so has a lot of leverage
in who gets a loan.

The effect of denial of IMF loan would be same as cutting off US financial aid to Pakistan.

#4 Threat of sanction alone

The mere threat of sanction has already had effect on Pakistan's economy.

The rupee has depreciated to a new low and the stock market collapsed by 3% one day
after the bill by US senators against Pakistan was introduced.

#5 sanctions against Taliban supporting individuals -

Targets:
military
ISI
other individuals who support Taliban

This is a politically easier option. Sanctions against Iran have been crippling against the entire
population. The sanctions against Iraq may have killed up to 1,000,000 people. Starting sanctions targeting
a few government institutions and politiicans is easier to get support for.

Sanctions are sometimes criticized as not having much effect on the government and
mostly devastating the population.

Effects of sanctions on targeted people:
1) cannot travel
2) cannot have property outside of country
3) top destinations like US, Canada, Australia, UK, etc. no longer accept sanction targeted individuals

#6 sanctions against country, cut off communications, military action -

Pakistan has broken basic international law of non-intervention, aggression.

Article 42 and 43 of the United Nations Charter Chapter VII define punishments
including cutting of communication, withdrawing diplomatic recognition and even military action
for breaches of peace, aggression, etc.

The option of military action was actually carried out in Yugoslavia against the Serbian central
government.

In the case of economic sanction, aid and trade to Pakistan would end. The country does not
generate enough revenues to avoid increasing defecit, has a debt ratio reaching 100% and is
depenedent on trade for fuel and staple food items, in addition to engineering, transport,
technology goods which are necessary for its economy.

In the case of military action, Pakistan would become a military target. In addition to direct losses
from military action, there would also be a loss of investrment both external and internal
and confidence in economy.

If the military becomes weak, this could lead to internal disintegration of Pakistan as the military
is one of the few working institutions left in Pakistan.

09/09/2021

* "Snakes you can hug and kiss": The myth of "changed Taliban"

Has the Taliban been consistent between its words and actions about being
changed?

- women's rights - Women have been beaten for protesting in videos that
became public. A woman who worked with US-Nato forces has been r***d.
Afghan female robotics team, soccer team, army officers, judges, police,
pop star have been targeted with violence, or driven out of country.
Schools have been forced to segregate by gender or stop female education
completely. Women are not allowed to leave the house without a male
guardian in some parts of the country already.
- freedom of press - reporters have been beaten until their skin is blue
or purple.
- no retribution to former enemies - Afghans who worked with US-Nato
forces have been hunted down, r***d, tortured or shot. Their family is
also threatened.
- representation of all of Afghanistan - Racial profiling of Tajiks has
started in Panjshir. Hindus and Sikhs are being forced out of Afghanistan
under oppression of Sharia.
- Durand borderline issue - A Taliban minister has declared that he does
not recognize border between Pakistan and Afghanistan
- safe haven for terrorism - Taliban can't control ISIS in Khorosan
attacks on airport with US soldiers even in Kabul, which should be one of
its most strongly controlled areas. There is also presence of Al-Qaeda and
foreign fighters from Syria, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan.

09/09/2021

* Taliban's takeover: worst threat to South Asia since Genghis Khan

Pakistan
-Durand line as border of Afghanistan and Pakistan has been rejected by a
Taliban minister in his speech. They already declared it null in the first
rule by Taliban
-Pakistan has losts up to 100,000 civilians to Taliban and other Islamist
groups since 9/11.
-Iran almost launched a war against Pakistan, after Taliban massacred its
diplomatic staff in Afghanistan. There is also an increased threat of
conflict with Iran.
-By 2050, more than 50% of Pakistan will be Pakhtun. Do we need a Pakhtun
Jihadist government next door to encourage nationalist Pakhtun hatred for
Pakistan?

India
-Kashmir - There is threat of liberation war from Afghaistan for
Kashmiris.
-PK was winning in Kargil war in 1999 with help of Taliban fighters. This
only encourages repeating this strategy.
-India is now seen as a Hindu fundamentalist country under Modi with
Hindutva ideology. It is a perfect symbol to attack by fundamentalist
Taliban.
-India has alienated Kashmiris by revoking their special status in
consitution keeping foreign non-Muslims from India from owning property in
and settling in Kashmir. This will encourage collusion between Kashmiris
and Taliban.
-India wants a permanent seat in UN Security Council. Attacking India from
Afghanistan with impunity is a way to humiliate it internationally and
prevent it from getting the permanent seat.
- some 80,000 Indians have died since 1980 from terrorist violence. During
most of this time (except 1995-2001), Afghanistan did not have a
government. Now it has one, the Taliban, where several ministers are
internationally recognized criminals.

Bangladesh
-extremists from Chittagong, Bangladesh have traveled by ship to Karachi,
Pakistan in order to reach Afghanistan.

South Asian Muslims
If extremist Muslims in South Asia are going to Afghanistan for training,
it will be like the Egyptians, Algerians, North Africans who fought in
Afghanistan anti-Soviet war and came back to create Al Qaeda and use
violence back in their home countries.

09/09/2021

* 4 reasons why Taliban's takeover of Afghanistan is more dangerous to Pakistan than Iranian revolution

Iran is Persian race. Pakistan has no Persian race. Pakistan does have
Pakhtun race, same as Afghanistan's Taliban.

Iran is Shia. Pakistan is Sunni. Deoband sect of Taliban originated from
North India and is popular in Pakistan.

Taliban tookover in condition of corruption, lawlessness and inept
government. Conditions also exist in Pakistan

Pakistani government did not support Shia revolution in Iran at all. In
contrast, it has supported 20 years insurgency of Taliban with money, men,
training, equipment, harboring Taliban members in hiding places, drone and
aerial bombing support. It has strengthened the Taliban to much stronger.

23/07/2021

Rotten institutions - Authoritarianism and public health : Case study of Pakistan and Bangladesh

There is an observation in political science that democracies are more healthy
than authoritarian countries. What does data in South Asia say about this?

Pakistan's history is more authoritarian with almost half the history under
military dictatorship. Bangladesh has spent relatively more of its history
under democratic government.

Now to see some facts:

Health Statistics PK BD
Children under the age of 5 years underweight 23.1% (2017/18) 22.6% (2019)
Current Health Expenditure 3.2% (2018) 2.3% (2018)
Hospital bed density 0.6 beds/1,000 population (2017) 0.8 beds/1,000 population (2016)
Life expectancy 69.37 years 74.43 years

There is 0.5% lower percentage of children under 5 who are underweight in Bangladesh.

There are 0.2 beds/1,000 population more in Bangladesh than in Pakistan.

Overall, as the strongest indicator, the average Bengali lives 5 years longer than the average Pakistani.

Pakistan spends 0.9% more of its GDP (almost a full point) and still achieves worser health results than Bangladesh.

There may be a few factors that explain the paradox between investment and results.
First, democracies are less corrupt. Second, in a democracy, candidates compete with differing offers on topics
such as health care. In authoritarianism, there is no incentive to perform better than anyone else. Bangladesh
has achieved better results in health, while spending less money as a percentage of GDP than Pakistan.

This data confirms the earlier observation in political science. Democracy is a life force that can be felt inside the body.
It actually makes people live healthier and longer lives.

13/07/2021

Imran Khan's education emergency for Pakistan

The Prime Minister has declared an education emergency in Pakistan.
What are the root causes of this?

There is an observation in political science that democracies are more educated
than authoritarian countries. What does data in South Asia say about this?

Pakistan's history is more authoritarian with almost half the history under
military dictatorship. Bangladesh has spent relatively more of its history
under democratic government.

Now to see some facts:

Education Statistics PK BD
education expenditure 2.9% of GDP (2017) 1.3% of GDP (2019)
literacy rate 59.1% 73.9%
years of education 8 years 12 years
expected at birth

The average Bengali has 4 more years of eudcation. And the country has 14% higher literacy rate overall.
This is despite the fact that Pakistan spends more than double the amount as a percentage of GDP on
education.

There may be a few factors that explain the results.
First, democracies are less corrupt. Second, in a democracy, candidates compete with differing offers on topics
such as education. In authoritarianism, there is no incentive to perform better than anyone else. Bangladesh
has achieved better results in education, while spending less money as a percentage of GDP than Pakistan.

This data confirms the earlier observation in political science. Democracy educates people better.
Democracy impacts people's lives.

17/06/2021

Sri Lanka:case study in democracy and freedom of religion

Buddhism country's religion is highly respected in its constitution
SL has freedom of religion - Hindus and Muslims are each 9% or more of population
SL is one of oldest democracies in Asia

This example shows that a religious society can maintain democracy and freedom of religion.

17/06/2021

Zia ul Haqq dictatorship: key features

Economic growth of this period was not his achievement. Remittances from workers abroad, not policy, produced growth of period. Issuing of passports for working abroad was facilitated first time by a previous administration.

Zia's single goal was Islamisation. He left economic affairs to three other people in his administration.

Zia's ban on political parties encouraged people to vote on ethnic and sectarian lines. Islamisation started attacks on Shias at Muharram, which has become a yearly occurrence since his rule. Unity and peace of country were broken.

Zia weakly remained in power. He lost foreign finance towards end of Afghanistan war. His generals turned against him in opinion. He feared return of democratic opposition Benazir Bhutto. He experienced an investigation into his actions by his civilian PM Junejo, who he had once chosen himself. He faced rebellion in Balochistan where he was forced to give amnesty to rebels.

13/06/2021

Corona and Democracy
Amartya Sen, Indian economist, did a groundbreaking academic study. It showed that famines are not just a shortage of food,
but influenced by free flow of information and accountable government, which are factors that reduce the effect of famines in
democracy. In contrast, in authoritarian China, 20 to 80 million people died in famine due to lack of these 2 factors under
an authoritarian regime.

This is an important lesson for Corona virus. Freedom of press, and regular fair elections, will help South Asian people to push
their governments to take a better response against Corona and its economic consequences.

In era of Corona, freedom of press and democratic election are a matter of life or death. There should be concern about the decreasing
freedom of press in South Asian countries like Pakistan, India and Bangladesh in the last decade.

13/06/2021

Pakistan's periods of rapid economic development
During Ayub Khan's period, Pakistan experienced up to 15% growth rate (fastest in Asia) or 3x that of India, 10% in early 1980s, 6% or more under Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz (among fastest in planet)

South Asia SocEcon News

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31/03/2022

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