09/11/2024
We're in the eye of the hurricane now; after the flurry of the fall and regional festivals, and before the onslaught of guild and critics awards. Granted, we've still got some awards buzz in the form of the Gotham Awards, and some rumors/reactions from screenings for upcoming titles. It's not much when you put it in the context of the whole season, but it's definitely part of the process that gets the snowball rolling down the hill.
The Gothams are an esoteric bunch with their tiny and segregated nominating committees, and now unwritten rule that all eligible films must have some sort of independent quality to them. Can we say that Challengers is firmly an Oscar contender because the five-person nominating committee put it in the Best Feature Category (and nowhere else)? No. But we can always glean a few things from this list, such as the fact that Anora and Nickel Boys continue to be the critics' favorites that they were during their respective festival runs. Those two films, along with The Brutalist, are the ones I expect to get the most love from the top critics groups like NYFCC, LAFCA, and NSFC. Anora will be especially strong if it continues the outstanding box office run it's been on. Nickel Boys and The Brutalist don't release until December, so they'll need all the love they can get to boost their financial prospects when it comes time for the Oscars to weigh in.
Moving from the little to the big fish, both Wicked and Gladiator II ("Glicked" if you're tuned into the forced marketing campaign) have been seen by a wide enough sample of people for us to make some assumptions. The reactions to Wicked have been almost all glowing, with many saying that it's much better than they expected. The combination of several craft nominations (with possible wins), good enough critic scores, a big box office haul, and fervent fan support have convinced me to slot it into my predicted Best Picture lineup. We're also in a year that's leaning very indie, especially when you compare it to the behemoths that lined the Best Picture category the past two years. I think there's a want by people and voters to get another blockbuster in along with Dune: Part Two.
(1/2)
