Strong thunderstorms are increasing across Southwest Arkansas, Southeast Oklahoma, and Northeastern Texas. Frequent lightning, small hail, and heavy rain. Storm intensity to continue to increase especially for the Texarkana, TX vicinity; however, isolated severe storms are possible extending up to Ashdown, AR vicinity. The Nashville and Murfreesboro vicinity are being watched; however, it is believed "most storms will behave"; however, power outages are possible due to frequent lightning and some gusty winds. Watching this situation closely.
WHAT? An arctic air mass combined with southwest flow aloft supports the increased potential of a winter mix and perhaps snow for portions of Arkansas, Much of Oklahoma, extending into Northern Texas by the middle part of next week.
WHEN? Exact dates are a bit uncertain (Feb 23rd-24th time-frame) *Wednesday afternoon into much of the day Thursday*
DETAILS? Although details are still being worked out, it is likely that the freezing line will spread into much of Oklahoma, Texas, and Arkansas throughout late Tuesday Night into Wednesday (northwest to southeast).
MOUNTAIN ISSUES? In most cases, shallow cold air is delayed into valleys to some extent or completely avoided in certain cases. Should colder solutions materialize, the Ouachita mountains (SW Arkansas, NE Texas, and NW Louisiana vicinities) will be the area where a cold rain or wintry mix will likely be experienced. In the previously mentioned regions, a winter mix would be more likely cold air comes more aggressively and in more depth.
UNCERTAINTIES: Ensembles of features supporting *a stronger cold front pushing into the region and sloshing around the mountains are favored. This would increase the potential of a wintry mix over the Southern Plains and mid-South. The Euro model is "much warmer" with winter mix confined to the north; however, the CMC/ICON is "much colder" with winter mix area-wide. The GFS is a blend between the two. Details will be refined as we draw near. There is a higher likelihood of wintry mix for Oklahoma, Northern Texas, and portions of Central Arkansas; however, watch closely the Arklatex region for faster cold air infiltration. AGAIN remember the Mountain issues that are being monitored. Remember last time (winter mix stayed north of I-30).
