Frederick Flakes Forecast

  • Home
  • Frederick Flakes Forecast

Frederick Flakes Forecast Here for ❄️ and 🏫 closures. Not a meteorologist. Just an anon FCPS employee predicting closures.
(2)

16/02/2024

This Saturday’s storm might not be effective in closing schools (much to my third grader’s chagrin) but it will probably be significant enough to halt morning activities. Sun will peak out later in the day and on Sunday, making the snow a fleeting sight. I’d get out and sled 🛷 or build an Olaf ☃️ sooner than later Saturday morning.

15/02/2024

I am looking at ❄️ early Saturday. But as my third grader so eloquently put it, “This snow is USELESS!”

14/02/2024

Hearing from you all, it sounds like most roads are pretty dry. While temps will get to freezing tonight, there’s not much left to freeze, except on the mountain. A delay feels unlikely, but possible.

Roads in the eastern part of the county look great, and 🌬️ + ☀️ will dry them out. I drove from Linganore to Walkersvill...
13/02/2024

Roads in the eastern part of the county look great, and 🌬️ + ☀️ will dry them out. I drove from Linganore to Walkersville and Wormans Mill with no problem. However, our county is big. How are you Sabillasville and Wolfsville? Refreeze could be an issue if upper county has significant snow.

13/02/2024

Snow changeover has been happening for awhile. Heavier snow will likely make ground temperatures colder and accumulate snow.
Happy to be right 😎 AND happy to close!

12/02/2024

🎶 Winds in the east, misting coming in, like something is brewing, about to begin. Can’t put my finger on what lies in store, but I feel what’s to happen all happened before 🎶

This storm has been as contrary as a flying British nanny ☂️ and I would like it to just simmer down and make a decision. Several models are more consistent now which means that it’s very likely that we will be at least delayed tomorrow. Because there are some models that show us as getting limited snow, and it’s also possible that the ground might not be cold enough for significant accumulation, I’m not suggesting heavily that a full closure will happen. However, it is a possibility!  the timing of this storm, along with precipitation starting early could be two solid factors that influence that possibility. If the roads are covered at 3 AM, buses can’t get started at 5 AM. 

What I think is most likely to happen is that around 5 AM, we will have a delay with a reevaluation. If the ground is cold enough for accumulation, then we will be closed. However, if the ground is not cold enough to hold accumulation and most of the precipitation is tapering off, then we will be open two hours late. At this time, I think that is the most likely scenario. 

If I need to reevaluate this thinking this evening, I will. 🤞

12/02/2024

I know y’all want an update. My school position is not one where I sit down for a planning time or lunch time. I will update after 4 or ASAP. But I’ll just say this - I’m pleased with the model changes 🤩

🎶You remind me of a [storm] that I once knew 🎶This storm has been like many we saw early in the season - inconsistent mo...
12/02/2024

🎶You remind me of a [storm] that I once knew 🎶

This storm has been like many we saw early in the season - inconsistent models that have changed at nearly every model run. I’ll save the reasoning for that for actual meteorologists. BUT, what does this mean for Tuesday? Nothing too exciting I’m afraid.

Most models now agree that the Catoctins will see snow, and light accumulation. Could this mean a delay for Tuesday? It COULD, but I’d bet more on hearing an exorbitant amount of millennials complaining about their knees tomorrow than us getting a delay.

Model runs still will happen tonight and tomorrow, so we’ll see what, if any, changes happen between now and then.

11/02/2024

There’s absolutely no model agreement for Tuesday morning right now.

If the storm moves in sooner on Monday night, temperatures drop faster, making a delay more likely. I know it’s warm right now, but a lot of cold rain can cool down the ground quickly and help snow stick. It’s certainly happened before, even this season. But will it happen this time? I’m not confident enough to say it will.

I’ll check in again tomorrow night during the Usher concert where Taylor’s boyfriend is playing football.

10/02/2024

I don’t feel fully confident in making any sort of prediction for Tuesday morning yet. Models have moved all around for days. However, I will hypothesize by tonight. 

08/02/2024

I see models for next week and beyond getting a lot of attention. As always, when I have something to tell you, I’ll tell you.

22/01/2024

No delay, but I suspected that. Be careful young drivers, and report snow drifts!

21/01/2024

I’m changing my thinking a bit. You all have shared a lot of pictures from across the county, and they have been of snow that’s drifted into the road, causing hazardous conditions and accidents. The Sheriff’s office reported this as well. This wasn’t limited to one area. You all reported these conditions in Mt Airy, Walkersville, Thurmont, Middletown, Myersville, Wolfsville, Jefferson and Brunswick. Some of you even said your school lots weren’t fully plowed.

While the wind definitely is helping to dry out most roads, it’s also making other roads more dangerous. That plus freezing temperatures overnight (the wind will subside), anything wet will freeze. That doesn’t guarantee a delay, but it does raise red flags for me.

I hope FCPS considers this, and thinks about the possibility of a delay. I do think it’s more likely that we will than I previously thought, but I’m not very confident that they will agree with my red flags. I still say salt heavily tonight, and set your alarms tomorrow. If we are delayed, I will be grateful for the consideration for our young drivers and bus drivers.

21/01/2024

I know what y’all are thinking. There’s snow drifts, frigid temperatures and melting snow. This must mean a delay tomorrow, right? Well, not necessarily.

There’s definitely a few treacherous roads right now. Many of you sent me pictures of 355, and I drove through a few snow drifts in Yellow Springs this morning. It’ll be icy tomorrow morning for sure. But there’s also a lot of wind, drying out roads. And most importantly, there’s clear backroads, main roads, school lots and sidewalks. I don’t think any bus will have trouble getting up a mountain tomorrow morning. We thought buses might have struggled Thursday morning, but they didn’t, and there was no delay.

For those reasons, I doubt we’ll delay tomorrow. Young drivers and staff should be cautious and salt salt salt tonight. Take your time tomorrow morning, because I think the buses will be firing up at 5:30. Is it possible that we’ll delay anyway? Yes, it’s definitely possible, but not likely. Would I love to be wrong? Of course. But, I’m usually not 😇

Edited: THAT’S A LOT OF SNOWY ROADS! I’m thinking a delay could be more possible!

19/01/2024

Seeing more snow, specifically squalls, on the radar. Get home tonight and plan to stay put if you can.

This is a LOT more snow than any model projected!

I am thinking about what nearly 8” of snow (maybe more) means for Monday. 😬❄️ How much snow do you have?

18/01/2024

My prediction for tomorrow hasn’t really changed! The storm looks like it could move earlier (5am), and everything will stick. I don’t see how any central MD school system will open.
Edit: I do love being right ❄️😎

Let’s get down to business. Maybe to defeat some huns, but mostly just to talk about Friday.❄️I have 4 models here. GFS➡...
18/01/2024

Let’s get down to business. Maybe to defeat some huns, but mostly just to talk about Friday.❄️

I have 4 models here. GFS➡️Euro➡️ Canadian➡️ NAM (which is hyper local). The HRRR model run for Friday morning isn’t ready yet. It’s also hyper local.

All four show snow starting around 7am and ending in the afternoon for most of central Maryland. Not a lot of snow, mind you. Although, it could be more than a few inches due to the cold and how long the storm will last. But the TIMING is everything.

Buses are on the road way before 7am. However, it’s frigid outside, and whatever falls WILL stick. So, a delayed opening would be bad news bears - much more snow will be falling by 9am and into the morning. An early release isn’t great either. Even if roads are ok at 9am, they won’t be at 1 or 2 when buses would be dropping off students. So, even though accumulation won’t be much, it’ll cause some badly timed slippery roads.

SO - for NOW, I think a closure Friday is pretty likely. I’ll check in again tomorrow afternoon/evening and see what models look like. They’ve been pretty consistent for a few days now, so that’s a good sign!

As for tomorrow, I’m bringing multiple layers to my crosswalk duty 🥶

17/01/2024

A delay is possible tomorrow, even for counties that were delayed today. Refreeze is absolutely the main factor, and not all buses are clear! I have ideas about Friday - I’ll share more tonight! ❄️🤞

16/01/2024

Very confident in a delay for FCPS tomorrow. Lots of delay schedules have been sent out. Lots are looking much better!
ETA: I love being right 😎

16/01/2024

I know FCPS is on a delay, but really, admin is emailing staff to stay home because lots are not being prioritized. I’m really glad to hear that admin want to keep their staff safe!

16/01/2024

MANY closures this morning. Just waiting on a few to re evaluate. What are your ❄️ totals? That helps determine opening status tomorrow!

15/01/2024

Roads were ok earlier but not so much anymore. Models still holding: 3-4”+ likely. More in some places.

HIGHLY DOUBT that CC, HOCO, BCPS, MoCo or PG will be in school all day tomorrow

Edited to add: Yes, I know FCPS is delayed for staff and closed for students tomorrow. Remember that the storm is not over, and more will fall tonight. That delay might turn into a closure, but because we’re not talking about buses, I see the system being less cautious. 

15/01/2024

I’ve checked every model again just now. Timing might move in faster, as in tomorrow afternoon. Totals look to be in the 3-4” range across all of them. If you were supposed to report to a school on Tuesday, it’s likely you won’t be.

Call it what you want to, but it looks like some snow Monday into Tuesday is happening. We have the GFS➡️Euro➡️HRRR➡️NAM...
14/01/2024

Call it what you want to, but it looks like some snow Monday into Tuesday is happening. We have the GFS➡️Euro➡️HRRR➡️NAM models. Timing for this looks like the wee hours of Tuesday. This is ideal for closings as it means snow has a chance to accumulate. Now, FCPS has a work from home day that day, but that’s not true for support staff and 12 month employees. Other counties are not working from home. So what does that mean for Tuesday? I think other counties won’t be coming until later, if at all. One inch of snow by 6 AM isn’t much, and that could be enough for a delay. More snow than that looks like a closure for in school counties.

Pretreatment might go out, but it’s only effective for ice and if the temps will be above 15 degrees. They might not be 🥶

These models have flopped around a lot the last few days, so expect some more changes. However, that’s what I see happening for now.

If we only get 3” of snow, it’s unlikely we’d be closed or delayed Wednesday.

13/01/2024

Lots of model runs today that look favorable for Tuesday ❄️❄️ but there’s still time. I’ll know more by Sunday. As for what that means for a PD Day… not sure yet.

12/01/2024

A few of you have asked me about the storm coming on Tuesday. First of all, FCPS is having a teacher workday that day, but I still will make a prediction for other counties.

Second, I’m not sure that the storm is going to happen and be impactful quite yet. It’s still far away, and the models are not in agreement yet. One model shows significant snow for upper elevation areas and a lot of Frederick county, while another model shows absolutely nothing. I’ll update more by Sunday night.

And no, I’m not worried about tomorrow’s rain affecting anything. 😅

10/01/2024

Looks like we’re on time. I’m not totally surprised by this - the storm moved through faster and crews had all night to work on downed trees. But, I still hope last night’s flooding has subsided. Careful bus drivers and staff!

10/01/2024

My last thought for the evening: a delay is definitely possible, but mostly due to the amount of down trees and flooding, not the rain (which is subsiding). Crews need time to fix outages and cull fallen limbs. Not every downed tree is being reported, but there are a lot of roads closed. 

Many of the small rivers and creeks that flow into the Monocacy are overflowed. The Monocacy is very close to overflowing. No one can tell what Baker Park looks like right now, but I’m sure its doing its job and is absolutely flooded. Remember that that IS its job, and protects downtown from flooding.

My only hesitation is that many road closures and flooding conditions have not been reported right now. And, things have all night to level out. Unfortunately, it looks like we’ll have to do the 5 AM wake up and see. Is that frustrating as a parent or as a School employee? Absolutely. But that’s why I’m here, so that at least you know that it IS a possibility, and you can plan tonight, just in case.  

Are you ready for it? Baby, let the games begin. 🐍But what does this actually mean for tomorrow? A few counties have al...
10/01/2024

Are you ready for it? Baby, let the games begin. 🐍

But what does this actually mean for tomorrow? A few counties have already called a delay for tomorrow, but they have massive flooding. Do we? Well… I wouldn’t say massive. We have a good amount of road closures though. Could we have a delay? We could. But only if more flooding continues throughout the night, blocking roads. If there’s multiple schools with power outages, its also likely. I’ll update more as I know more.

And if you come here with a “for some wind and rain? Not in my day!” comments, I’ll remind you of all the school days I missed in the early 00s for flooding due to massive storms. 🙃🙃

09/01/2024

I love being right, but I also love keeping kids and staff safe. AND I love when families can plan for their safety. That’s why I’m here!

Address


Website

Alerts

Be the first to know and let us send you an email when Frederick Flakes Forecast posts news and promotions. Your email address will not be used for any other purpose, and you can unsubscribe at any time.

Videos

We’re definitely into the unknown with this storm 🥶

Shortcuts

  • Address
  • Alerts
  • Videos
  • Claim ownership or report listing

  • Want your business to be the top-listed Media Company?

Share