16/12/2023
Fight predictions and analysis for UFC: 296-
Leon Edwards vs. Colby Covington
This fight has some bad blood and obviously Colby pi**ed Leon off talking bad about his deceased father. I think this will play into the fight quite a bit and much will depend on Leon’s composure. Does he let Colby get Leon angry and will he make an Aldo mistake? Colby hasn’t finished anyone in years and Tyron breaking a rib hardly counts. So I don’t expect that to happen. I expect Leon to win a grinding decision win. He has shown his wrestling has come really far. He held his own somewhat in the Usman fights with regards to wrestling and takedown defense. Enough to get the win in their second fight. He’s probably put a lot of time into his wrestling and cardio the last few years in particular and I think it will be enough to takedown defend, jab, and leg kick his way to victory. Edwards by decision.
Alexandre Pantoja vs. Brandon Royval
Pantoja takes this easy in my opinion. He beat Brandon Royval two years ago via submission. A year before that Royval was knocked out by Moreno in the first round. I just don’t think he has the tools to get Pantoja. Pantoja’s chin is insane and he is highly motivated and emotionally invested in his title reign. Possible Brandon pulls out a submission but I don’t think that’ll happen. I would guess they’re gonna punch each other clean in the face until Royval folds, and then Pantoja chokes him out. Pantoja by submission .
Shavkat Rakhminov vs. Stephen Thompson
Poor Wonderboy. They fed him to the young undefeated Kazakh who can wrestle and submit like a mf. Shavkat can strike,but he’s a primarily a submission machine. And he fights smart while actively hunting for a finish. He likely will not trade with Thompson on the stand up and instead wrestle him for three rounds. Stephen is a karate master who is known for his great striking at distance. His wrestling has shown to be subpar and he’s gotten manhandled quite a few times now. I’d like to think Stephen is experienced enough to avoid getting tapped out, so would lean toward decision for Shavkat. But idk, Shavkat is a different beast so maybe submission. Shavkat by decision.
Tony Ferguson vs. Paddy Pimblett
Tony has looked awful in his last few fights. I know he’s a long-time fan favorite, a former interim Champ, and there’s a lot of hype with Goggins as a training partner, but he looks old and worn. Pimblett isn’t a top fighter but he should easily take out Ferguson. He’s fairly well-rounded and hungry for his continued ascent. I expect Pimblett to get a Tko victory first or second round. Tony turns his back too much and isn’t fast like he used to be. . It will be sad but hopefully Tony doesn’t take too much damage and retires with dignity.
Paddy by tko.
Josh Emmett vs. Bryce Mitchell
This is late notice fight for Bryce and props to him stepping up. He’s a good wrestler for sure, but Josh is just as good. I think Josh takes this because the dude is just insanely strong and obviously more prepared. I would guess decision for Josh, but maybe a knockout. He seems to hit like a truck. Bryce will has his work cut out for him but this is a big opportunity for him to possibly get him to a title shot if he were to pull it off.
Emmett by decision.
