Kansas Memo

09/10/2024

09/10/2024

In April 2024, Donald Trump was asked this:

Do you think women should be able to get the abortion pill mifepristone?

Trump: Well, I have an opinion on that, but I'm not going to explain. I'm not gonna say it yet. But I have pretty strong views on that. And I'll be releasing it probably over the next week.

As of September, he has not announced a policy.

09/09/2024

PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES, PRE- AND POST-COVID

Comparing real, inflation-adjusted personal consumption expenditures before and after the Covid pandemic, attempting to remove the effect of the pandemic. Spending has risen faster after the pandemic than before.

Comparing real, inflation-adjusted personal consumption expenditures before and after the Covid pandemic, attempting to remove the effect of the pandemic.

09/08/2024

WICHITA EMPLOYMENT SITUATION, JULY 2024

For the Wichita metropolitan area in July, most employment indicators worsened from the prior month. Wichita continues to perform poorly compared to its peers.

For the Wichita metropolitan area in July, most employment indicators worsened from the prior month. Wichita continues to perform poorly compared to its peers.

09/08/2024

EMPLOYMENT, PRE- AND POST-COVID

Comparing job growth before and after the Covid pandemic, attempting to remove the effect of the pandemic.

Comparing job growth before and after the Covid pandemic, attempting to remove the effect of the pandemic.

09/06/2024

Survey of Economists
Tripling the tariffs [on Chinese steel and aluminum products] would lead to measurably higher steel and aluminum prices for American producers and measurably higher finished-good prices for American consumers.

09/03/2024

In his article "The Media Are About to Help Trump Fail His Way Back to the White House," Michael Tomasky criticizes how the media covers Donald Trump and the 2024 election, arguing that their attempts at "fairness" end up legitimizing Trump's falsehoods. Tomasky points out that the media often fails to call out Trump's lies and extremist views directly, instead opting for neutral or even misleading headlines that give undue credibility to his statements.

He uses several examples to illustrate his point, such as a recent headline from *Politico* that suggested Kamala Harris was "evading" questions about her identity, despite her straightforward dismissal of a racially charged comment by Trump. Similarly, Tomasky criticizes the *New York Times* for treating Trump's vague and unworkable housing plan as though it were comparable to Harris's more detailed proposal, simply to appear balanced.

Tomasky further highlights the media's failure to properly report on Trump's inflammatory rhetoric, such as his baseless claim at a Moms for Liberty event that schools are performing surgeries on transgender children without parental consent. Major outlets like the *New York Times* and *Washington Post* largely ignored this statement in their coverage, which Tomasky argues is indicative of a broader problem: the media's reluctance to confront Trump's lies head-on for fear of appearing biased.

Tomasky contends that this approach ultimately does a disservice to the public, as it prioritizes the appearance of fairness over the truth. He concludes that journalists and editors need to stop worrying about accusations of bias and focus on accurately reporting the facts, even if that means being harshly critical of Trump and his policies.

Tomasky, Michael. "The Media Are About to Help Trump Fail His Way Back to the White House." *The New Republic*, 3 Sept. 2024, https://newrepublic.com/article/185528/media-trump-moms-liberty-2024.

09/03/2024

While Donald Trump says he built the greatest economy ever, growth in gross domestic product during his administration was bested many times. From 1930 to 2023, there were 48 years when GDP grew faster than in Trump's best year.

09/03/2024

Covid Deaths in Counties
Deaths per million county residents. March 1, 2021 through March 9, 2023. Size in proportion to population.

In summary, the chart suggests that counties with higher support for Trump in the 2020 election experienced higher rates of COVID-19 deaths per million residents from March 1, 2021, to March 9, 2023.

09/03/2024

Trump’s Tariffs
On the campaign trail, former president Donald J. Trump praises his import taxes on Chinese imports. But he is wrong on the data, and wrong on the economic effects.

On the campaign trail, former president Donald J. Trump praises his import taxes on Chinese imports. But he is wrong on the data, and wrong on the economic effects.

09/03/2024

JOB GROWTH DURING THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION

After Donald J. Trump took office, the rate of job growth in the nonfarm and private sectors slowed from the prior administration. Government job growth increased.

09/03/2024

REAL DISPOSABLE PERSONAL INCOME IS RISING

Real disposable personal income is the income available to persons for spending or saving. It is equal to personal income less personal current taxes, after adjusting for changes in prices due to inflation.

Comparing real disposable personal income before and after the Covid pandemic, attempting to remove the effect of the pandemic.

09/03/2024

I really appreciated my former president Donald J. Trump paying his respects at the first and second anniversaries of the deaths of U.S. soldiers in Afghanistan in August 2021.

(Wait … I can’t find any news of this. Maybe someone can help.)

Also, does anyone know how many U.S. soldiers died in Afghanistan while Trump was president?

And while I’m thinking of it, does anyone know if Trump negotiated for the Afghan government to release any Taliban prisoners?

09/03/2024

The opinion piece argues that the Electoral College is outdated and no longer represents the will of the people. Originally designed to protect against the dangers of pure democracy and ensure smaller states had a voice, it now often disregards the popular vote, as seen in the 2016 and 2000 elections. The author suggests reforms, such as proportional allocation of electoral votes or a hybrid system, to make the College more reflective of the popular vote while still protecting political minorities. Despite the difficulty of enacting such reforms, the need for change is urgent to restore public trust in the electoral process.

A relic of another time, the electoral college distorts the results of our presidential elections and thwarts the will of the people.

08/31/2024

Vehicle Fatalities in States

08/31/2024

Smoking in Congressional Districts

Percentage of adults who report current smoking. 2021. Shown as difference from mean district value 15.75.

08/31/2024

Teen Births in Congressional Districts
Births to females 15-19 years per 1 ,000 females in that age group. 2021. Shown as difference from mean district value 13.96.

08/31/2024

Firearm Mortality by State
Number of deaths per 100,000 total population. Average annual rate for 2014 through 2022. Adjusted for age. Size proportional to state population.

Regression analysis indicates that political leanings, as reflected by the percentage of votes for Donald J. Trump, play a significant role in determining firearm mortality rates across states. The population size does not show a significant direct effect in this model.

08/30/2024

Does Donald Trump really believe the 2020 election was stolen?

Based on what he did with money he raised, the answer is not really.

After the 2020 election, President Trump and his allies raised over $250 million through claims of election fraud. Much of this money was redirected to a leadership PAC called Save America, established by Trump, allowing him to use the funds with few restrictions for purposes beyond the legal efforts to contest the election. Despite the funds' intended purpose for "election defense," they were largely spent on other expenses, including personal costs for Trump, donations to associates, and payments to affiliated companies, with a significant portion remaining unspent.

08/30/2024

GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT IN COUNTIES

In summary, the chart suggests a negative correlation between the percentage of votes for Trump and per capita GDP in counties, indicating that counties with higher Trump support generally have lower per capita GDP.

08/30/2024

GDP GROWTH DURING THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION

After Donald J. Trump took office, the rate of Gross Domestic Product growth increased slightly from the prior administration, until the pandemic.

08/30/2024

JOB GROWTH DURING THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION

After Donald J. Trump took office, the rate of job growth in the nonfarm and private sectors slowed from the prior administration. Government job growth increased.

08/27/2024

Midwestern cities like St. Louis are actively seeking new immigrants to counter decades of population decline and labor shortages. While immigration is a contentious national issue, local governments in conservative regions view it as a solution to their economic challenges. St. Louis, through the International Institute, plans to attract 2,000 immigrants this year and hopes to increase that number to 15,000 by 2030.

The strategy is driven by the need to replenish an aging workforce, prompting even Republican-led states like Kansas and North Dakota to recruit foreign labor. Businesses in these areas are partnering with nonprofits to hire refugees, such as those from Ukraine. However, national immigration reform has been stalled since 1990, forcing local governments to manage immigration issues with limited federal support.

In Missouri, the political climate remains divided, with local leaders like those in St. Louis working to welcome immigrants, while state politicians often adopt hardline stances on immigration. Despite these challenges, St. Louis and other cities continue their efforts, recognizing immigrants as vital to their economic revitalization.

The success of these initiatives is uncertain due to political opposition, funding shortages, and logistical challenges. Yet, as the U.S. population ages, the need for immigration reform becomes increasingly clear, with experts suggesting that demographic realities will eventually force policy changes.

MLA citation: "The Midwest Cities in Search of New Migrants." *The Guardian*, 2024.

Although immigration remains hugely controversial, a number of places in Republican-dominated areas are eager for an influx of workers