G4 or greater geomagnetic storm conditions expected tomorrow!!
More exciting space weather news to talk about today! And if you think this has been an oddly frequent amount of sunspots, solar flares, CMEs, auroras, etc, then you’d be right! We are approaching the peak of solar max in solar cycle 25. Peak is expected to be July 2025, so frequent activity is expected to continue! (edit: I typed this up before another X flare popped around 11am!)
On Monday, a long duration X flare event occurred. Instead of a wham-bam & done flare, it was at least 9 hours of constant energy fluctuating between X & M levels (high). The sunspot responsible for this was on the west (right) limb of the sun, so not a direct hit….However, due to the duration, it is expected we will get hit by at least some of that CME.
Yesterday an X1.8 magnitude CME erupted with quite a large shockwave of radioactive particles. A direct earth hit! We are currently experiencing a strong solar radiation storm because of it, but there is no increased risk to our health! No worries.
Take a look at the video below, you can see that full halo CME explode and then a “blizzard” of radiation particles afterwards. So cool!! Also, the obnoxiously white object advancing from the right is Comet C/2023 A3 (Tsuchinshan-ATLAS). The brightest comet in 13 years!! We will see that starting sunset on Friday! So, this could be quite the space weather weekend! I’ll make a post on how to watch for it.
The language being used by the SWPC for this G4 forecast is very similar to the forecast we had for the May 10th event earlier this year. I don’t wanna hype it, but it is technically possible we have another extremely rare event coming!
Lastly (and thank you for surviving to the end) I am going to try to teach you all how to use magnetometers to have the very best chance at seeing aurora. Stay tuned!!!!
—Jenny
Hurricane Milton
Y’all gotta checkout this impressive satellite loop of Hurricane Milton! This storm is just unbelievable and historic already on so many levels. One crazy thing to especially note is how small the eye of the storm is at only 4 to 5 miles wide! This is called a pinhole eye which is why this beast is so powerful pushing a non-existent level of a Hurricane Cat 6 profile if there was such a thing. Milton remains an extremely powerful Cat 5 packing winds of 180mph with a pressure drop to 897mb! An incredible site to see for sure but sadly with an unfortunate future devastation ending.
Fall Festival of the Arts & Crafts
If y’all aren’t down here yet for the Fall Festival then you’re missing out! Lots of really cool things going on and it’s a spectacular day in Downtown Washington, Inc.
Happy Sunday everyone! This is Jenny, the resident HLEW space weather geek. With our weather being on the boring side lately, my attention has been more in the space weather realm. As you might have heard, the sun unleashed a pretty strong solar flare (X 4.5) with an accompanying CME (coronal mass ejection) yesterday morning. Not all solar flares have CMEs with them, but when they do—our chances for a geomagnetic storm & subsequent aurora increase depending on a few factors. I’m gonna geek out on some aurora chasing stuff for this post.
Skip to the asterisks if you just want to know our aurora viewing chances. 🤣
First, the CME must be somewhat directed towards the earth (obviously a full direct hit is optimal for aurora chasers). Fortunately, it looks like we will get clipped. Using the HUXT forecast animation (courtesy of the University of Reading in the UK), you can see the large X class flare CME swipe the earth at the end of the clip.
Second, it needs to arrive at night. Seems like a pretty obvious requirement, lol! But since we do not know exactly when it will arrive, it’s entirely possible it will hit during our daytime and give the other side of the world the good show. Timing the arrival of CMEs is not an exact science yet, due to many factors that would require a much longer post. 😆
Third, the magnetic field of the CME itself is a key factor. We measure this as a north/south Bz value. Using a Bz graphic from the spaceweatherlive app, you can see this depicted. The black line is where the earth is located, and it shows the magnetic field values behind & in front of the earth. The more south the Bz, the better! We can look at that graph and know what is coming within ~25ish minutes (depending on solar wind speed).
Kp values are a great tool to use as well, but not the end all beat all. Take Kp value/viewing maps with a grain of salt. Typically, the higher the Kp value forecast, the better our chances of seeing aurora down here…BUT…real
Washington Town & Country Fair VIP Drawing
Congratulations to our 2 Winners: Samantha Seamon & Sandy Adams!!! Each of you have won the EPIC VIP Fair Experience Package to the Washington Town & Country Fair!!!
Washington Town & Country Fair August 7th - 11th, 2024
We bring your official fair forecast once again back to our hometown of Washington, Missouri in just about two weeks! Come join us at the Washington Town & Country Fair August 7th through 11th with these amazing concerts ALL included with your fair admission!!
Amtrak Derailment Near Washington, Missouri
Weather related due to fallen tree.
129 passengers/crew and all are thankfully SAFE!!
This is the wind field off of one of the models (NAM 3K). Bring winds of 50-60mph in some areas around the metro
Twisters VIP Contest Winners!
🎉 CONGRATULATIONS!!! to ALL of our VIP Twisters Contest Winners Co-Hosted by yours truly, Genuine Contracting!
🎁 We had an Absolute TON of entries! Winners… Be on the lookout for your 2 FREE VIP Tickets to be emailed to you later this week! Tickets will be scanned in upon entry with your assigned seat number.
💝 Also, we have set aside a few tix for our disabled followers needing wheelchair accessibility. Regardless if you did not win here, if you would like to attend, please send us a PM and we will respond to the first few messages we get with FREE Tickets for you as well!
✅ We care so much about our community and wish we could take y’all with us but the theatre only holds so many. Thank you to all participants and being the best part of the HLEW Fam!
We can’t wait to meet y’all on Thursday - July 18th, 2024 at 7:00pm. VIP Exclusive Pre-Launch Twisters Movie showing starts around 7:10pm @ Cinema 1 Plus in Washington, Missouri.
It’s Official: New Record High of 103°F Today!
Also, Gotta love outflow boundaries. Almost as if you can see the weather before the weather happens. As stated earlier, storms may develop as it moves through depending on strength and you can see, exactly just that is happening. The front line is the outflow boundary and then right behind it you see all the storms popup out of nowhere. Super cool for us weather nerds!
