Daily forecasts for Calvert, Charles, and St. Mary's Counties, led by Jason Mitchell Your local forecast team includes Forecaster Jason Mitchell.
Foot's Forecast was founded in January 2004 by Richard Foot, an Earth & Environmental Science Teacher in Baltimore County, MD and 1996 graduate from Penn State in Earth Science. After the February 2003 blizzard and the September 2003 impact of Hurricane Isabel, Mr. Foot and his 10th grade science students from Dundalk High School in Baltimore County decided to place their forecasts on the internet
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While thunderstorms on Sunday ended up being more scattered than I thought for Southern MD, there will be another chance for thunderstorms later this Monday afternoon and evening. Any storms may produce gusty winds and torrential downpours.
-Forecaster Jason
The National Weather Service has issued a Severe Thunderstorm Watch for the area until 10PM Sunday. This is a classic summertime setup for numerous thunderstorms to develop later this afternoon and evening. Some thunderstorms may produce damaging winds and hail due to the atmospheric dynamics in place.
-Forecaster Jason
5:55 PM Sat Storm Update | A cluster of thunderstorms is tracking eastward through portions of the area. Brief gusty winds and heavy downpours can still be expected.
There will be a renewed chance for showers and thunderstorms on Sunday, especially late in the afternoon and in the evening. Some thunderstorms may become intense.
-Forecaster Jason
4:51 PM Sat | Storm Update | A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING is in effect until 5:15 PM for much of Charles. The storm moving into the county from Virginia may produce 60 mph winds.
-Forecaster Jason
The stretch of dry conditions this week in the area is likely coming to an end, as a slow moving storm system will bring a return to chances for showers and thunderstorms this weekend.
For this Friday, temperatures have reached the lower 90s with some increase in humidity from the past few days. The humidity will continue increasing tonight.
Saturday, expect low to moderate chances for showers and thunderstorms throughout the day. However, I do think there will be a good deal of time without any rain at a given location, so I would not count on it being a washout. Temperatures will top out in the mid 80s with a steady southerly breeze at 10-15 mph.
Sunday looks to have similar conditions, although the chance for showers and thunderstorms will be slightly higher. Some chances for showers and thunderstorms will likely continue into Monday. A cold front will drive through the region Monday night, which will allow for an airmass more typical of early September to settle in for Tuesday.
-Forecaster Jason
A high pressure system overhead has led to seasonable temperatures with a break from oppressive humidity for the past few days. This nice weather will continue for the next couple days. For Wednesday, expect high temperatures in the mid to upper 80s with sunshine and a steady northerly breeze around 10-15 mph. Temperatures look to reach closer to 90° on Thursday.
The next chance for rain will come by Friday evening as a storm system moves in. A low chance for showers and thunderstorms may continue into the weekend. High temperatures will generally remain around 85-90° through the weekend, with the humidity trending upward by Friday.
-Forecaster Jason
As of late Friday afternoon, the main circulation from Debby has sped off into New England. The only main impact left for Southern MD is storm surge flooding at high tide along the waters this evening. The morning high tide in North Beach was one of the highest water levels observed there in the past 6 months. Considerable flooding also impacted Annapolis.
Rainfall amounts from this storm were considerably less than I expected in some areas, especially for central and southern St. Mary’s. The storm tracked further west up through the Appalachians than expected. Additionally, when the storm meandered off the Carolina coast, there was more dry air that got wrapped into it than anticipated, which led to less rain on the eastern side of the storm. A few showers may linger through the evening.
High pressure will build in for this weekend, leading to pleasant weather conditions. The humidity will start lowering by the afternoon on Saturday. Temperatures will top out in the upper 80s with sunshine. Sunday will have similar conditions with highs in the mid 80s. It will remain dry with comfortable conditions through Monday. Slight chances for rain may return Tuesday.
-Forecaster Jason
12:45 PM | The Tornado Watch has been dropped for the entire area.
-Forecaster Jason
Debby pounding Solomons Friday morning with strong winds, resulting in minor impacts to some structures.
-Forecaster Jason
TORNADO WARNING for northern central Charles until 8:15 AM.
-Forecaster Jason
**TORNADO WATCH extended until 2PM; continued gusty winds and tidal flooding**
Rain bands associated with Tropical Depression Debby will continue moving through the area this morning into the early afternoon. The concern remains for isolated tornadoes. Southeast winds are gusting to 40 mph across the area. As a result of these strong onshore winds, tidal flooding is impacting areas along the bay and the Patuxent.
-Forecaster Jason
The National Weather Service has just issued a TORNADO WATCH for Southern MD until 7AM Friday. An isolated tornado or two will be possible heading into the overnight hours as bands from Debby rotate into the area. Residents should have a way of being notified in the event a Tornado Warning is issued for a given location overnight.
-Forecaster Jason
**Rain from Debby to continue into Friday; tidal flooding and isolated tornado threat to increase by Thursday night**
While breaks in the rain can be expected, showers in association with Tropical Storm Debby will continue across the area through Friday. Additional hazards will become an increasing concern by Thursday night.
Debby will track northward along the eastern edge of the Appalachians on Friday, which will put our area on the eastern side of the system. Due to the atmospheric dynamics in place, this introduces the potential for individual storm cells to produce an isolated tornado Thursday night into Friday.
Winds will increase Thursday night, with southeast winds at 20-35 mph into the day on Friday. This will likely result in minor tidal flooding during times of high tide for Solomons, as a storm surge of at least 1 foot is expected on the Patuxent River.
-Forecaster Jason
Update on Debby and Impacts for Southern MD:
As of early Wednesday afternoon, Tropical Storm Debby is barely moving while situated off the South Carolina coast. Rain is continuing for coastal Georgia and South Carolina, with many locations there having already received 8-12 inches of rain.
The upper level pattern will allow Debby to resume a more northward motion by Thursday. Over the past couple days, computer models have shifted westward with its track through the Mid Atlantic heading into Friday. This would put the heaviest rain west of our area.
For this Wednesday, a frontal boundary is already in place near the area, which is helping to generate showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. Some thunderstorms may continue into the evening.
Thursday, additional showers and thunderstorms can be expected as moisture continues to stream northward. The remnant circulation of Debby will be tracking northward through Virginia on Friday. Expect a continuation of showers and thunderstorms. There may also be a threat for an isolated tornado due to the atmospheric dynamics in place from the storm’s circulation.
Saturday is now looking drier. Through Saturday morning, I am thinking Southern MD will have 1-3” of rain. Rainfall amounts may still be higher in any spots where thunderstorms may end up being more concentrated.
-Forecaster Jason
Hurricane Debby made landfall earlier Monday morning in the Big Bend area of Florida, as a Category 1 hurricane with 80 mph winds. While significant storm surge and wind impacts are ongoing there, the largest concern from Debby in the U.S. will be tremendous rainfall. Debby will take a slow track northward along the Southeast coast over the next couple days, and is likely to dump more than one foot of rain in some areas. A high-impact flood event is possible for coastal Georgia and South Carolina.
For Southern MD, there is the potential for heavy rain from Debby in the late Thursday-Saturday timeframe, although there is some uncertainty in its track. There will be an increase in moisture into this area even ahead of Debby’s remnants by Wednesday, with a good chance for showers and thunderstorms each day. Through Saturday, I do think we will see a total of 2-4 inches of rain from this week, and the possibility certainly exists for higher amounts.
If Debby does track right over this area, flooding will be a concern. It will likely not rain the entire time later this week, but Friday does have the best shot at being a washout.
-Forecaster Jason
5:57 PM 8/3 Storm Update | Thunderstorms are approaching Southern MD from the south and the west.
-Forecaster Jason
The National Weather Service has issued a SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH for the area until 9PM.
-Forecaster Jason
Friday turned out to be one of the hottest day on record for August 2 in Southern MD area. While the heat will back off a bit this Saturday, it is still going to be a particularly hot and humid day with highs in the low to mid 90s. There will at least be a steady southwesterly breeze throughout the day.
The chance for late-day showers and thunderstorms is higher than the past couple days, with scattered to numerous coverage of thunderstorms expected. The best chance for storms will be during the evening. Thunderstorms will be capable of producing strong winds and torrential downpours that may lead to flash flooding.
Hot and humid conditions will be sticking around on Sunday. Scattered thunderstorms may pop up in the afternoon or evening.
I am also watching Tropical Depression #4, which formed near Cuba. This is expected to strengthen into a tropical storm, with impacts to Florida early next week. There is the potential for this system to head northward towards the Mid Atlantic later in the week.
-Forecaster Jason
The National Weather Service has issued an Excessive Heat Warning for Southern MD from noon through 8PM Friday. Temperatures will soar into the mid to upper 90s, and with the high humidity it will feel as though it is up to 110°.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are also expected later today. The highest chance will be from mid to late evening.
-Forecaster Jason
Severe Thunderstorm Warning has been extended until 8:45PM for the southern half of St. Mary's.
-Forecaster Jason
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING for St. Mary's and southern Calvert until 8:00PM.
-Forecaster Jason
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING in effect until 7:15 PM for northern Calvert. This storm is moving south from Dunkirk and may produce 60 mph winds.
-Forecaster Jason
The National Weather Service has posted a Heat Advisory for the area for Thursday afternoon and early evening. Actual air temperatures in the mid 90s combined with high humidity will make it feel as though it is around 105-109°.
Temperatures this Wednesday have reached around 90° with the heat index around 100-105°. Isolated showers and thunderstorms have developed. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase each day through Friday.
-Forecaster Jason
5:45 PM 7/30 | Showers and thunderstorms are getting ready to push into Southern MD. Right now it looks like these storms will clear out after 9-10PM.
Rain chances for will be minimal for Wednesday, but we may see thunderstorms return on Thursday. Hotter temperatures will also be in place, with highs in the mid 90s on Wednesday and upper 90s on Thursday.
There is the possibility that pop up showers and thunderstorms may continue during the afternoon and evening hours for Friday and Saturday.
-Forecaster Jason
This weekend is turning out to be one of the rare weekends we have had this year with no real chances for rain. The humidity is also not as high as what we have dealt with for much of the month. Temperatures this Saturday are peaking close to 90°.
For Sunday, we will start off with morning lows in the upper 60s. It will certainly feel like summer later in the day as temperatures head into the lower 90s under sunshine.
The workweek will begin with increasing humidity and a return of chances for showers and thunderstorms. This activity may be hit or miss on Monday, with a better chance on Tuesday. The most likely time would be in the afternoon and evening hours each day. Chances for showers and thunderstorms may linger into Wednesday. High temperatures will be around 90° during this time.
-Forecaster Jason
Showers and thunderstorms ongoing this Wednesday afternoon in Southern MD will clear out by late evening. Not much will change with the weather pattern on Thursday. A few showers and thunderstorms will be likely again in the afternoon and evening, although it does not look like the entire time will be a washout. High temperatures will be in the mid 80s.
A cold front will sweep through Thursday night, which will lead to a pleasant conditions for Friday. The humidity will be noticeably lower by Friday afternoon as temperatures climb into the mid to upper 80s.
The weekend is shaping up to have a continuation of the nice weather for late July, although there will be a slight increase in the warmth and humidity. High temperatures will be in the upper 80s on Saturday and around 90° on Sunday. The high pressure system responsible for this weather will start to move away on Monday. Chances for showers and thunderstorms may enter back in late Monday.
-Forecaster Jason
The National Weather Service has posted a Flood Watch for Charles and areas to the north and west until 11PM Tuesday. Showers and thunderstorms will be likely across the area later this evening. Some thunderstorms will produce torrential downpours that may lead to flash flooding in some spots. The greatest risk for flooding will be in Charles and across the DC metro.
-Forecaster Jason
Temperatures this Sunday afternoon are topping out in the upper 80s. An isolated thunderstorm may develop later this evening, but most locations will remain dry.
There will be a much better chance for showers and thunderstorms during the day on Monday as a disturbances moves in. While widespread severe weather is not expected, I would not rule out a stronger storm. High temperatures will be in the mid 80s with fairly high humidity.
More showers and thunderstorms will be possible late Tuesday afternoon and evening. It does look to be a hotter day with highs in the around 90°. With a frontal boundary remaining in place, expect a continuation of this kind of weather into the second half of the week. Temperatures will reach 85-90° each day with pop up showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening.
-Forecaster Jason
The notable heatwave from the first half of the week is gone, and a Canadian airmass is briefly starting to move in! Expect a mix of sun and clouds on Friday with temperatures topping out in the mid 80s. The humidity will be much lower than what we have had lately. A northerly breeze will be present.
The humidity will start to creep back up on Saturday. There will be a chance for a few showers in the afternoon as a disturbance passes through. High temperatures will be in the mid 80s again.
Chances for rain look lower on Sunday, with a better chance of afternoon or evening showers and thunderstorms on Monday. Temperatures look to head back near 90° by Monday.
-Forecaster Jason
I captured this view of the shelf cloud that appeared from the line of thunderstorms that swept through our area this evening.
The line of thunderstorms tracked over 150 miles. At 4:30 PM, it stretched from Martinsburg, WV down to Lynchburg, VA. When it was crossing portions of Southern MD in the 7:30-8:00 timeframe, the line stretched from Philadelphia down to the VA/NC border.
-Forecaster Jason
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I captured this video of the severe thunderstorm that swept through Southern MD Wednesday evening. A microburst is a significant downward push of wind from within a thunderstorm. Due to the manner in which it is pushed out of the clouds, it can result in sudden changes in wind direction, which can be seen at the end of the video. The clouds from this thunderstorm stretched nearly 40,000 feet high. While intense thunderstorms were not expected this day, there was more energy in the atmosphere than anticipated. That was due to the humidity being higher than computer models had indicated. A weak lifting mechanism in the atmosphere was present, and an intense thunderstorm cluster developed around the DC metro, taking took advantage of the increased energy present. The storm cluster then proceeded to hold together all the way into southern St. Mary's. Andrews AFB had a wind gust to 61 mph, while the Pax River NAS had a gust to 54 mph. The highest impact from this event was actually around the Andrews AFB/Clinton area. For Prince Georges Co, more than 44,000 customers were without power. -Forecaster Jason
4/4/2024 | Graupel (a form of winter precipitation that can develop due to very cold temperatures aloft) in California, MD
2/28/2024 - Strong winds in Leonardtown, MD, as an intense cold front blasted through
Recap of the storm that resulted in snow across much of Southern MD, and how impacts varied drastically over the area
MLK Day 2024 - The first measurable daytime snow in Southern Maryland since 2022!
Strong winds in Solomons on 1/13/24
The first SNOWFLAKES of the 2023-2024 season have arrived at my house in California early this Tuesday afternoon! While the temperature is in the lower 40s, very cold temperatures higher up in the atmosphere are allowing for this. -Forecaster Jason
Heavy rain and gusty winds in Solomons on 11/21/23
Tropical Storm Ophelia in Solomons, MD
Video Update from Forecaster Jason on the potential Tropical Cyclone that will bring heavy rain, strong winds, and tidal flooding to Southern MD
Live video update on Idalia and expected impacts for the U.S. -Forecaster Jason
RECAP of Saturday's Storm & Look Ahead: The notable heatwave that gripped the area during the second half of last week ended with vicious thunderstorms for many locations on Saturday. Numerous trees came down throughout Charles and St. Mary's, and winds reached 60 mph at the Pax River base. I passed through on Chaptico Road in St. Mary's just after fire crews worked to remove downed trees from the road. As of mid Sunday afternoon, over 1,000 power outages remain in Southern MD, with most of them in Charles. Fortunately, northerly winds behind the cold front that passed through have brought much cooler temperatures and lower humidity. For Monday, there will be a slight increase in humidity, but temperatures will remain more normal with highs in the mid 80s. An isolated shower or thunderstorm is possible during the day, but I think most locations will remain dry. Similar conditions will continue for Tuesday and Wednesday. The next organized storm system looks to move in by late Thursday. -Forecaster Jason
A Flood Warning from the National Weather Service is in effect for the southern half of St. Mary's through late Sunday night. Flooding on some small creeks and streams may occur due to the heavy rain earlier. Somehow, April ends weather-wise in Southern MD on almost the exact same way it started, just not quite as intense as the first day. A line of thunderstorms developed right over the area in the afternoon. The center of the low pressure system also passed right over the area, making for the some of the lowest atmospheric pressure here in years. On the backside of the system, wind gusts officially reached 35 mph at the Pax River base, and the gusty winds were evident in Solomons. -Forecaster Jason
Video update on the pre-Christmas 2022 storm that is resulting in a variety of hazards for Southern MD and many other parts of the country
Power flashes Friday evening in Calvert. This was taken in Solomons, with the power flashes coming from Lusby. SMECO is reporting over 1200 customers without power, and most are in Calvert. -Forecaster Jason
Update on the tropical systems in the Atlantic, including potential impacts to the U.S. next week
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