Weather Tiger

25/11/2025

Reality: in 2025, it was not very realistic. In a year when AI images of ALF dunking a basketball through Saturn’s rings overtook podcasts rating hot sauce as the most valuable economic sector, perhaps it was inevitable that the weather would follow the bots, the stock market, and the rest of us into post-reality fever dreams.

And, indeed, this was a downright strange hurricane season, perhaps one of the most unusual on record. Yet somehow, amidst the cavalcade of exploding Starships and diseased monkey escapes, the most impactful storm of 2025 on the Gulf and Southeast Coasts was not a hurricane, but a blizzard. In fact, this hurricane season had less U.S. landfall activity than 98% of the last 125 years. That’s weather I wouldn’t modify, even if illegal weather modification in Florida wasn’t now punishable by a $100,000 fine.

It was far from a quiet season, however, as 2025 saw three Category 5 hurricanes and more Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) than two out of three years since 1950. If there is no additional activity to come, that will be— I am not making this up— a 67th percentile performance. (I will pause so readers under 15 can scream 6-7 for several minutes.) Thankfully, like detailed plans for bombing Houthi rebels, 10 of this year’s 13 named storms were sent directly to the Atlantic. While the continental U.S. remained at 100% OPSEC, reality bit in the Caribbean, where merciless Melissa ravaged Jamaica and vicinity.

Pour yourself a tall glass of nutritious, delicious beef tallow and click below to read the rest of my look back at the dizzying highs and soporific lulls of the bizarre 2025 hurricane season, a year that defied logic, convention, and, often, convection.

We've got 67 problems, but the 2025 hurricane season wasn't one (on the Gulf Coast, anyway).

28/10/2025

Wrapping up a brutal and singular day in Atlantic hurricane history, as Melissa takes its place at the far limits of the fury that a tropical cyclone can unleash.

Hoping for the best for Jamaica and all in the path of this monster.

Melissa ties the record for strongest Atlantic hurricane landfall, devastating Jamaica.

28/10/2025

Category 5 Hurricane Melissa is hours away from making landfall in west-central Jamaica this morning. Unfortunately, Melissa continues to intensify towards a late morning landfall. As confirmed by Hurricane Hunter aircraft, minimum pressure in the eye has dropped below 900 millibars, which makes Melissa only the 7th Atlantic hurricane on record to breach that threshold. There is also a chance that Melissa could best the all-time pressure record during any landfall, which is 892 millibars in the Middle Keys during the 1935 Labor Day Hurricane. Maximum sustained winds are estimated at 180 mph, tying Melissa for the sixth-strongest hurricane ever in the Atlantic.

As I laid out yesterday, this is a cataclysmic wind, surge, and flood event for Jamaica. I will have an update this afternoon on how landfall played out, but for now, please keep Jamaica in your thoughts and prayers. They need them.

27/10/2025

Hurricane Melissa will reach Jamaica tomorrow morning at or near Category 5 intensity.

This will be the worst hurricane strike on record for Jamaica and also produce major impacts in eastern Cuba, the southeast Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos, and potentially Bermuda-- but thankfully, no impacts on the continental U.S.

Full details on expected impacts across the Caribbean and beyond in today’s newsletter:

Melissa is on track to be the most severe hurricane landfall in Jamaica, and one of the worst anywhere in the Atlantic Basin on record.

27/10/2025

Hurricane Hunters confirming Melissa is 2025's third Category 5 hurricane, with sustained winds of 160 mph. Unfortunately, little weakening is expected before Hurricane Melissa reaches Jamaica tomorrow morning and Cuba on Wednesday.

New forecast discussion out later this morning.

23/10/2025

For 142 very pleasant days of the 2025 hurricane season, the waters of the Caribbean Sea were still. All the storms that mattered this year formed to the north or east, and then turned north in an orderly fashion towards Bermuda. And it was good.

But on the 143rd day, Tropical Storm Melissa moved over the waters. And Melissa unfortunately looks to make up for lost time heading into the weekend, posing a serious threat of major hurricane impacts on Jamaica, Cuba, and the Bahamas— but no risk to Florida.

We will be very fortunate if Melissa does not cause a humanitarian disaster in the northern Caribbean islands next week, even as the continental U.S. remains out of the crosshairs of this strange season.

My latest on this potentially intense storm:

Melissa, churning in the Caribbean, is a major hurricane threat to Jamaica, Cuba, and the Bahamas, but continues to pose little risk to the continental U.S.

21/10/2025

Newly-formed Tropical Storm Melissa in the central Caribbean is forecast to strength and meander into the weekend, and may well eventually become a major hurricane.

Cuba, Jamaica, Hispaniola, and the Bahamas are at the greatest risk, but despite long-term track uncertainty, Melissa is not expected to be a U.S. threat.

My latest thoughts on Melissa in today’s daily tropical bulletin.

Newly-formed Tropical Storm Melissa is a major threat to the western and central Caribbean, though there remains almost no risk for the continental U.S.

17/10/2025

If the 2025 hurricane season only had one last shot to threaten land, would it seize it, or just let it slip? With La Niña back, back again, and a vigorous tropical wave moving into the Caribbean next week, we’ll need to keep an eye to our south in late October. For what it's worth, an eventual U.S. threat. is quite unlikely, though not impossible.

This week’s hurricane column has the latest on how the upcoming potential for development in the Caribbean fits into late-season climatology.

The official onset of La Niña conditions may boost late-season development prospects in the Caribbean next week, which is an area worth watching for U.S. interests.

11/10/2025

I had a chance to discuss the strong coastal low set to impact the U.S. East Coast, what to expect over the rest of the 2025 hurricane season, and, of course, to review and assign a numerical rating to "The Life of A Showgirl" live on Fox Weather today. Fun interview!

Dr. Ryan Truchelut of WeatherTiger discusses a strong coastal low set to impact the U.S. East Coast, what to expect over the rest of the 2025 hurricane seaso...

09/10/2025

Is hurricane season CANCELLED!?

After nine consecutive years with at least one major hurricane landfall on the Gulf Coast, in 2025, we’ve told tropical cyclones to leave us alone and they have. There has been just one weak tropical storm so far in either the Gulf or Caribbean, which would be the least activity since 1962 if nothing else were to form there. It’s honestly lovely.

With no indication that the next couple of weeks won’t continue to keep it 100 on the land, the sea, the sky, and most U.S. landfall activity after October 15th caused by lumbering Central American Gyres, I’m using the opportunity of a calm Tropics to better know the Life of a Slow Gyre.

With no U.S. threat from Jerry, I take a look at the life of a Central American Gyre and whether one is likely to develop this October.

01/10/2025

Like an email from Mr. António Guterres informing you that you have won 67,000,000 USD in the U.N. Global Raffle, things that seem too good to be true usually are. Yet with five-sixths of hurricane season now behind us in terms of landfall activity, 2025 has been quieter than over 95% of years for the continental U.S., with just one modest tropical storm strike thus far. Given the unlikely way Imelda avoided the U.S. this week, maybe we really did hit that raffle jackpot.

I’m wrapping up Humbertimelda mania, looking at what the home stretch of hurricane season is historically packing, and checking how the forecast for the next couple of weeks lines up with climatology. All that plus spooky, scary skeletons in this week’s hurricane column.

Wrapping up Humbertimelda mania and looking at historical October hurricane risks.

27/09/2025

Saturday morning Tropics:

Potential Tropical Cyclone 9 will strengthen to a tropical storm and move north-northwest through the Bahamas this weekend, far enough offshore to have marginal weather impacts on Florida’s East Coast. Nine will approach the Carolinas by Tuesday and should be close enough to have at least coastal rain and wind impacts there, though a landfall is trending less likely.

Overall, as of Saturday morning, we still don’t have a great handle on PTC 9. The surface circulation is still forming, and the storm will be embedded in a complex environment mashed between many competing influences for the next 5 days. Coastal Georgia and the Carolinas should continue to monitor the situation closely as more changes at medium- and long-range are probable with an uncertain forecast.

PTC 9 is expected to approach the Carolinas in around 3 days, with an uncertain forecast thereafter.