Market Minute

19/07/2024

Not a great day for corn. Closed -6 cents off our highs, virtually unchanged

We rejected right off that short term downward trendline

$4.03 is still the most hold level (Closed at $4.04 3/4 today)

A clean break below probably brings another -20 cents of downside (but wouldn’t be shocked to see the algos get a $3.99 print only to reverse us higher)

A break above $4.12 would look nice, but really we need over $4.26 range before we talk about the potential for the bottom being in

$4.03 and $4.26 still the levels to watch. Until then I think we’re range bound

***
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19/07/2024

Poor day for the grains as corn takes a hit. However, soybeans led us higher. After being down double digits and posting a new low, they rallied back to close higher.

Grains saw some pressure surrounding the political news. Trump is probably going to win the election. As you all know he chose JD Vance as his VP. So this pick solidifies what he wants to do with tariffs.

Today JD Vance gave a speech in Milwaukee which added pressure to corn & beans.

In his speech he said that Biden supports normal trade relations with China and they disagree with that. Vance said he sees China as the biggest threat to the US. So grains see this as a negative due to the potential relationship issues with China it could bring. China is of course by far the biggest buyer of US grain.

Along with this, Vance does not want to continue funding Ukraine for their war and ag. The US has been a huge funder for both, helping Ukraine remain more competitive on the global corn & wheat market. So if we no longer fund them, it could be slightly friendly for demand but isn’t going to make a major difference immediately.

The other big news was China.

Unknown (most likely China) FINALLY bought old crop US soybeans. 510k MT of new crop beans & 150k MT of new crop meal.

So this was friendly and probably part of the reason beans bounced back today. It is good that we are finding some demand at these lower prices.

However as you all know we currently have the worst new crop book of sales ever. Until today China had bought virtually zero US beans. Something to keep in mind is that we do typically see China start to ramp up on sales from July and into August. If China comes in and starts buying a ton, it could help stop beans from continuing their free fall.

Looking at weather, it is still bearish.

The next week lacks rain for the corn belt as most of it will be kept south, but it is suppose to be cooler than normal. So pretty much ideal for now.

However weather isn’t going to be a major market mover from here. As weather season is behind us.

Read the rest of todays update where we go over some levels to watch in the grains to confirm bottoms & everything else you need to know

Read Here 👉 https://txt.so/cK2C4s

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19/07/2024

Update on 2014 vs 2024 Corn 🌽

Still very similar so far..

In 2014 we didn’t find a bottom until $3.18 and continued lower until October.

After finding a bottom we did rally all the way to almost $4.20 by the end of the year.

Will history repeat or will we get a counter seasonal rally?

Longer term these lower prices should create more demand. But how low do we go before hand?

I don’t see us getting all the way to $3.18 but I’d be lying if another -50 cents of downside was impossible.

Would really like to see us hold $4.03 on Dec corn, otherwise we are probably looking at another -20 cents of downside.

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18/07/2024

Levels to Watch in Corn 🌽

$4.03

Must hold level. We bounced there several times this week. A break below probably offers another -20 cents or so of downside. (Although I wouldn’t be surprised to see the algos get a quick $3.99 print & bear trap)

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$4.12

Out short term resistance. We’ve topped out there several times. This is also the lows from the June 28th USDA report. Opens the door to $4.26 range.

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$4.26

Our July 2nd high. This is a huge level. A break above would be a convincing bottom indicator.

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$4.46

Our lows from February. Now this is a long ways away from today. But a break above this would probably be enough of a reason to scare the funds out of their record shorts.

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Overall:

I’d say we are range bound until $4.03 gives or we crawl above $4.26

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Sep Corn:

The same concept follows Sep as it does Dec.

First resistance is $4.00. The trend changer level is $4.14. The must hold is $3.90.

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16/07/2024

Funds are short a record 357k contracts of corn.

For the funds to cover they will need a reason.

Can be a fundamental reason such as demand. A supply reason such as weather. Or a technical reason such as them losing money on their position.

Right now weather isn’t going to scare them. Weather has been ideal the entire growing season. The typical “weather scare” is in the rear view mirror.

I think these low prices will ultimately create more demand and will long term help push prices higher. But again that’s long term.

Technically, we will likely have to see a key level taken out for them to start getting nervous. That level is likely the $4.46 area which was our February lows. That level does feel like a long ways away from here.

The funds will cover eventually. But how short can they go? And how long can they stay this massively short? History suggests they don’t stay this short for very long.

Demand is already increasing. In Fridays USDA we saw an increase in production, yet our carryout decreased due to being offset with demand. Low prices will only bring that much more demand. Demand rallies last longer than supply scare rallies as well.

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(Fund chart credit: Karen Braun)

15/07/2024

Soybeans continue to fall, entering into that “bear market” zone.

Still some support in this area, as this was many of our old resistance points.

However, these last time we entered this zone it lasted a brutal 6 years (although 2 of them were during to the trade war).

Lots of nervousness today with the Trump re-election odds skyrocketing, increasing the fear of another trade war.

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15/07/2024

Dec corn completely fails to follow through Fridays key reversal left by the bullish USDA report

Gave back the past 2 sessions gains

Posting a new low close of $4.04

Not so sure corn didn’t come all the way down here to at the very least see $3.99 print…

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15/07/2024

Grains destroyed yet again. Corn continues to fall despite a very bullish USDA report Friday where we saw stocks come in -10% lighter than expected.

Soybeans continue to be hit the heaviest as the probability for a Trump re-election increased massively following the attack attempt during his rally. Many are saying this won him the election.

His re-election probability increasing has spooked the markets with the idea of another trade war where we lose all of our exports to China.

There is a lot of debate on this. Some think this could create more nearby demand, as China might try to get stuff on the books before Trump is in office.

There is other talk that when he’s in, Trump could go into phase 2 of the trade war. Which could potentially be a good thing as China might be held to meet their purchases.

Who knows how negative Trump probably getting elected is going to be. But it will add to risk in these markets. So if you have stuff you have to move, you might want to look at more downside protection strategies.

Weather has been pretty much ideal and very bearish for the grains. However there is some wind and derecho threats out there that could do some damage.

It’s the middle of July. So that typically summer weather scare window is gone.

On the charts, we did some heavy damage across the board. Corn put in a key reversal Friday, only to completely fail. Both beans and wheat printed new lows today. So the charts look ugly and indicate potential more downside here short term.

Did corn really fall all the way down here not to print a $3.99?

So if you are in that situation where you have to move grain off the combine. You could consider puts. Insurance in case we continue to fall.

Big picture outlook. Friday gave us what I’ve wanted to see for a long time. Low prices curing low prices.

They increased our demand 250 million bushels between this year and last year. That’s a massive increase for one report.

If that trend continues and we see that month after month, especially at these low prices. That will create heavy demand. Especially if this crop isn’t quite the monster of a crop everyone thinks it is……..

Give todays audio a listen where we go over all of us this. What to do if you’re going to have to move grain off the combine near the lows, why demand should increase moving forward & more

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11/07/2024

USDA Numbers for Tomorrow:

Looking for yield essentially unchanged. Too early to make adjustments lower especially given the timely rain.

Looking for corn production up from last month due to the higher acres. Beans down due to the lower acres.

Old crop carryout expected to be higher with higher stocks in June. New crop carryout also expected to be higher.

USDA will add some corn bushels. However, we will likely see them offset some of that with demand numbers.

World carryout is expected to see a slight increase in corn, with slight decreases to beans & wheat.

Wheat production is expected to see slight increases across the board.

The trade is expecting small cuts across the board for South America crops.

That includes the Brazil corn crop, however CONAB actually raised their Brazil corn number this morning. Keep in mind, the USDA's number is still far larger than CONAB though.

***
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11/07/2024

We already know the funds are record short. Holding nearly -350k contracts of corn.

The shortest ever going into the report for both corn & beans. The shortest since 2020 for corn & 2018 for beans. This is the shortest since 2016 for wheat.

The funds have been short 2 years in a row going into this report for corn. This is the first year since 2019 going into it short for soybeans. This is the 5th year in a row going into the report short for wheat.

Massive shorts.

So if there is a positive surprise, could lead to big buying.

I am not saying it will be a positive report, just pointing out that if it is, it could lead to even more upside….

(Chart from Karen Braun)

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11/07/2024

Grains finally see some life led by wheat.

Looks like mostly a relief bounce and fund repositioning going into tomorrow’s USDA report.

CPI data came in at 3.0%, lower than the expected 3.1%. So this helped pressure the dollar and was a small friendly boost to the grains.

Currently the weather looks ideal for most of the corn belt, as it is expected to dry out the next 10 days following the timely rains that the hurricane brought to the eastern corn belt.

Kansas and Nebraska however are expected to be very hot and very dry with temps +100 and little rain.

These recent rains were very timely for the crops. Potential for that typical weather scare rally is pretty much gone as we get into mid-July.

Yes, soybeans are made in August, but they typically do not react to weather in August like corn does in the summer months. The outlook for late July into early August also offers rain currently.

The market will start trading less and less weather from here on out unless something crazy happens.

Look at the received rain vs the areas that needed rain and you can see just how timely they were.

USDA tomorrow..

This will include the updated new crop balance sheets that include the data from the June acres report. So it will include the increase in corn acres and slight cut to bean acres.

Yield is expected to be virtually unchanged. It is very unlikely that they make yield adjustments lower this early, especially given the good weather a large portion of the corn belt has seen.

They are looking for corn production to be higher than last month. This is because they are using the new planted acres that are higher.

Soybean production is expected to be a little lower due to the lower acres.

Old crop carryout is expected to see a slight increase because June stocks were higher. New crop carryout is also expected to be higher.

They will add bushels to corn production. However, they will probably offset this with something on the demand side of the balance sheet that makes it a little less burdensome…..

Read the rest of today’s market update where we breakdown the upcoming report, ways to manage your risk depending on your situation, the funds, if wheat is near a bottom and more

Read Here 👉 https://txt.so/316kAw

***
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11/07/2024

11/07/2024

Previous Price Changes for Tomorrows USDA Report

Past two years have been blood baths for the grains

Third time the charm?

Yield adjustment from June is unlikely

Yield Estimates:
🌽 Corn: 180.8 (179-181 range)
🌱 Bean: 51.9 (51-52 range)

(Chart from Jake on Twitter)

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10/07/2024

Soybeans break $10.75 🌱

Down -60 cents in 3 days 🩸

Officially in the bear market zone 🐻

How cheap do we have to go to create enough demand to rationalize higher prices?

China purchases today encouraging.. but will need far more as new crop sales have been nonexistent

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10/07/2024

New 3 year lows today for Nov soybeans. Down -50 cents in 48 hours. Corn & wheat hung in there today.

Yesterday both corn & beans posted their worst single day losses in over a year.

Reason for the recent heavy sell off?

First is the hurricane.

Areas getting rain are the EXACT areas that needed rain.

I circled the exact same area in the forecast & drought monitor.

Crop conditions yesterday showed improvement. The best ratings since 2020.

Right now these numbers suggest a trendline crop. However, in a wet year like this one, crop conditions aren’t always perfect. Again these are essentially an eye test. Don’t take into account nitrogen loss, root structure issues etc.

But for now, this is what the market trades and it is not bullish today.

Next is the funds.

They continue to hammer their selling.

COT data came out yesterday. The funds are short -350k contracts of corn. Which is an all-time record. This number is even bigger today.

No they do not historically stay this long for very long, but they are just riding the wave lower. They have also never not gotten long in a year, but have yet to do so this year. We will need a shift in supply or demand to change their minds.

Along with the funds we have the US farmer holding a massive amount of grain.

This is one of the biggest problems we have along with ideal weather.

The funds are short 350k contracts (1.7 billion corn bushels)

The farmer is holding 600k contracts (3 billion corn bushels)

Nearly double what the funds are short.

However, another way to look at this is:

Does it really matter if there is all this grain out there if it is not for sale?

At a certain point, buyers will have to pay up if farmers refuse to sell. Not many want to sell grain for a loss. But currently the market thinks all of this will have to be sold…..

Read the rest of todays market update where we go over everything you need to know in the grains

Read Here 👉 https://txt.so/AewKnA

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09/07/2024

If are gonna bounce, now would be a good time to do so

Breaking below that channel support on Nov beans

Also quickly approaching those old bear market resistance levels of $10.75 on the continuous front month chart

We’ve sold off -50 cents in the past 48 hours

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09/07/2024

Grains absolutely destroyed today. Corn and soybeans both have their biggest daily percent losses in over a year.

The funds continue to double down on their shorts. They are record short corn. The COT data shows they are short -340k contracts (it’s more now)

The forecasts have rain in the eastern corn belt. The heat dome that was building didn’t materialize. Then we have the hurricane adding to this wetness.

Rain makes grain is the mentality of the market.

The market is trading a crop close to trendline. I don’t think 180 is in the cards but I do not expect the USDA to lower yield Friday.

Crop progress came out today and crops improved. Stopping that trend of lower conditions.

Crop conditions suggests trendline yield. If we are 180 there is plenty of downside of course.

We won’t know what the final crop looks like until January or even later.

But if crop conditions continue to improve and the forecasts stay friendly, it is going to add pressure.

Today the market sees 180 corn.

Now this sucks short term. We could be in for a brutal few months. But long term what this does is build demand. Which is what this market really needs.

Today we sold some corn to China. Not a large amount but they also bought some from Ukraine.

If China is buying do I want to be selling? China tries to buy at the cheapest.

If you’re in that situation where you have to move stuff off the combine, there is still a ton of downside price risk. A lot more than there was a few weeks ago.

Mother Nature has been very cooperative. We increased our acres.

Longer term, +6 months from now I think these lower prices lead to more demand and help prices.

3-4 months from now we could find out the crop isn’t there. Then we find out we increased demand so much because we got so low.

That is how you create a bull market like 2021 & 2022..

Listen to today’s audio where we go over why this could create a long term demand market and what you should be doing if you have or don’t have storage

Listen Here 👉 https://txt.so/TXOWXO

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08/07/2024

Dec corn takes out the USDA report day lows

Today was the biggest single daily percent loss (-3.83%) since June 23rd of 2023

$4.00 is the next psychological support level

Short term with the weather being bearish, not much there to spark any life

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08/07/2024

Corn poking its head into that 2014-2020 bear market territory

In previous years in that range we often found support in the $3.18 area

Will this be a case of old resistance turns to new support..? (Pre ethanol boom years resistance turned into 2014-2020 support)

Or will we go full on back to trading in the $1.00 range bear market between $3.00-$4.00 that lasted for 6 years?

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08/07/2024

Here is an updated view on how 2024 corn is stacking up with previous years.

2014 still catching some eyes as we are very similar price level wise and price action wise.

In 2014 we saw $3.18 corn..

Short term I think we are going to struggle. Could be a brutal few months.

Longer term lower prices will help demand and I think we could see higher prices long term (6-9 months).

But how low can we go before we find a bottom?

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02/07/2024

Grains tried to rally early in the day off the back of some short covering, but ultimately closed well off our highs as weather in the US looks pretty ideal for the crops and bearish for the markets the next week or so.

Wheat was pressured from rains in Australia to go along with reports of better yields out in Russia.

Despite the bearish forecasts, corn has held up the past 2 days following the brutal USDA report. So that’s a friendly sign. Negative news but positive price action.

Forecasts are pretty wet and are showing below average temps. Both of which are bearish for futures.

Despite areas such as Iowa, South Dakota, Minnestoa getting even more needed rain, the markets thought process is that rain makes grain. Sure, some areas are getting too much. But even more areas are getting a perfect amount.

The eastern corn belt has been dry in comparison, but they too are expected to get decent rains.

What might be even more important to the crops is that the next week is cooler than normal. Crops can handle some lack of moisture if the heat is not there.

These timely rains are making the likelihood of seeing that usual summer drought or weather driven scare very unlikely here.

Which short term means unless we do get some weather event or demand story, we don’t have a reason to scream higher soon.

It is now July. Rain in the forecast is always going to be bearish.

The funds are now holding a record short in corn…..

Read the rest of todays grain market update where we go over the possibilities for a demand led rally later in the year & more

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02/07/2024

Soybeans also approaching 2014-2020 bear market levels 🌱 🐻

In the past, we have seen the $10.75 range act as big resistance multiple times throughout the years

Will we see old resistance turn to new support..?

Or return to bear market territory..?

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02/07/2024

History doesn’t repeat.. but it often rhymes

Here is an update on 2024 vs similar years

Many are still scared this is a 2014 repeat.. reasonably so

2014 we went straight down.. in 2010 we had the wettest summer on record for the entire corn belt and the market didn’t realize until later.. in 2020 we saw a demand led rally.

Be prepared for either scenario.

Some food for thought though:

The funds were actually heavily long the entire year in 2014..

The funds were short the entire year in 2020 until harvest..

The funds have yet to gotten long this year. Currently holding a record short position.

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02/07/2024

With the chance for a weather scare rally getting smaller and smaller.. what's left for the market?

A rally later in the year is still possible, but it will have to be led by demand.

The USDA was very very bearish corn. But one thing it did was longer term help demand.

At a certain point, low prices cure low prices.

Just take a look China's corn market prices vs the US.

Unlike the US, China's prices haven’t gone straight down.

China has been in an uptrend all year, we have not.

We are now trading at a large discount to China.

The last time we saw this big gap? The end of 2020. Just some food for thought.

Why wouldn’t China want to come in here and lock up cheap corn?

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01/07/2024

Head & Shoulders Complete 🌽 📉

We completed the implied downside move for the head & shoulders pattern

(Target is taking range from the Head to Neckline, then subtracting that from Neckline)

Can corn finally bottom..? Or more pain to come?

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01/07/2024

After a brutal 30 days and a near $2.00 sell off..

I think wheat finally found a bottom for now 🌾

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29/06/2024

Corn approaching those bear market levels where we were trapped for 6 years from 2014 to 2020 🌽 🐻

Will we enter back into that territory.. or see a case of old resistance turned to new support..?

Personally I don’t see $3.00 corn.. but I guess anything is possible

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29/06/2024

Garbage USDA report that led to corn seeing one of the biggest losses in a year.

It wasn’t the numbers themselves, but more the fact that it took forever for the report to come out. All the algos had it.

When it did come out, corn acres and stocks came in higher with acres at 91.5. This tanked corn and July & Sep corn traded below $4.00

The idea was today’s numbers increased carryout. However going into July, August, Sep I see that decreasing.

I don’t think yield is 181. With all this water, floods etc. our harvested acres are probably going down.

Obviously this report was very negative for corn on the surface. But one thing we did do today was create more demand.

If you dig in deeper, demand is getting stouter and stouter. Yield is debatable but I don’t see anyone calling for 181. I think it could be tough to match last years yield.

Today’s report sucks for prices today. Prices could suck for a while. But this helps prices go higher later. Because it helps create more demand.

This is why I see a counter season rally. We could even rally into harvest. If this happens it’ll be a demand led rally, which is a rally that lasts.

The risk is of course that rally doesn’t come and this is a repeat of a year like 2014. If you’re someone who can’t handle corn sub $4.00 or if nervous that’s where we are headed.. be proactive. Lock in a floor.

It’s tough to market in a year like this one. We haven’t even had the opportunity to make a sale above break even for most guys.

The funds are so massively short. Record amounts for this time of year.

We don’t have this crop in the bin yet. Nobody has a clue what the crop is gonna look like. What we are doing is.. the lower we go the more demand we create.

What happens when you get more demand? You get higher prices.

I don’t see a lot of farmers puke selling. We have prices below the cost of production. The charts are saying we are overdone.

This report isn’t going to help us soon. It is going to feel like the sky is falling for a while. But looking longer term our demand could very well lead us higher and create a counter seasonal rally..

Nobody is talking about demand right now. But it’s there. China is sniffing around for corn. Look at prices in Chinas corn market vs ours.

The USDA says that the farmer is holding 3 billion bushels. Does the farmer actually? If so basis indicates it’s not for sale anyways.

These flooding acres haven’t made any impact to the market yet, but longer term they will. A headline of rain in June is always going to push the market lower.

Listen to todays audio where we talk about the main takeaways from this report, how we could see a counter seasonal rally, and everything else you need to know

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28/06/2024

USDA ACRES & STOCKS

Acres:
🌽 91.475 vs 90.353 est
🌱 86.1 vs 86.753 est
🌾 47.24 vs 47.757 est

Stocks
🌽 4.993 vs 4.873 est
🌱 0.969 vs 0.962 est
🌾 0.702 vs 0.684 est

Overall bearish corn, friendly soybeans

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27/06/2024

Tomorrow is the biggest USDA report of the year.

If you remember last year, it sent corn down over -30 cents and beans up nearly +80 cents.

Typically corn acres increase from March to June. Feels like that might not happen this year due to Mother Nature and the current market conditions.

So what’s the future for grains look like if we come in below the estimates and get a bullish report vs if acres come in high and we get a bearish report?

Looking specifically at corn. The first scenario:

Bullish report. Acres come in low, maybe stocks come in on low end.

Now this will provide an initial spark and could send us much higher. Doesn’t feel like it today, but we could see $5 corn. The only negative is that this would slightly kill our demand, and have a more negative impact on prices longer term.

Second scenario:

Bearish report. Acres come in high, maybe stocks come in on high side.

Short term this would cause some pain. Sub $4 corn would be a very real possibility. However a bearish report will longer term help us create more demand and eventually lead to higher prices. But it will likely take several months for the market to see some recovery, and it could be a brutal several months. Short term many farmers might not be in the good spot with the heavily depressed prices. So that’s scary for a lot of guys.

However, if we go lower it will create that much more demand. The lower we go now, the higher we are able to go later. And longer term I don’t think our production is going to be there. Which would create an even more bullish scenario long term.

Demand is already at a spot where we could have a record yield yet see our carryout decrease year over year. That is bullish.

Either way, you have to be prepared to see corn $0.50 to a $1.00 lower, or $0.50 to a $1.00 higher. You have to have a plan for both.

If you’re someone who wouldn’t be able to withstand corn being sub $4.00 or will have to make sales down here you have to be proactive. Have a plan.

Listen to todays audio where we go over everything to know ahead of tomorrows major report & how to position yourself

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