Weekday Morning and Daytime Meteorologist for ABC 6 (KAAL-TV) in Rochester, Minnesota.
**FRIDAY FORECAST** (July 26, 2024)
Quiet, warm and muggy weather is expected this weekend. A slight chance of a spotty Sunday afternoon shower with higher rain chances coming late Sunday night into Monday morning. Summer heat & humidity to linger through next week.
T-STORM CHANCES & SUMMERTIME HEAT: There will be few chances for t-storms over the next several days as summertime heat & humidity build into the region.
🔴The weekend is looking mainly quiet, however a few showers may sneak into far southeast MN and northeast IA on Sunday afternoon as a low pressure trough lifts from the Southern Plains into the Midwest. Further west, a trailing trough will approach late Sunday night into Monday. Still some uncertainty on the overall track and possible intensity of any t-storms that may roll through.
🔴A high pressure ridge will build into the central part of the country through the week. A few disturbances will track along the northern and eastern periphery leading to chances for showers and t-storms in the Wednesday to Friday period. There are still several unknowns regarding these systems and where exactly they track which depends on the strength of the ridge and where that zone sets up. It's possible it'll be over or close to our area.
🔴As the ridge builds, summertime heat & humidity will lead to well above average (80°) temperatures mainly in the 80s. Dew point temperatures will be in the 60s and 70s for most days which will lead to high humidity as heat indices (feels-like temperatures) may touch or climb into the 90s for a few days.
Summer isn't going anywhere anytime soon as we flip the calendar to August next week!
Happy FINALLY FRIDAY!
High pressure overhead will keep us quiet and dry heading into the weekend. Temperatures and humidity will be on the increase with rain chances holding off until early next week. I track it all as we're LIVE on-air and online until 7:00 AM.
WATCH LIVE: https://www.kaaltv.com/live/
**THURSDAY FORECAST** (July 25, 2024)
Temperatures and humidity will be on the rise through the weekend. The next rain chance comes on Monday with more heat and humidity to follow next week.
WEEKEND OUTLOOK: Temperatures and humidity are expected to climb, but at least the weekend is looking quiet with plenty of sunshine.
🔴A ridge of high pressure will build across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region leading to a more southwesterly flow aloft resulting in warming temperatures and higher humidity. Meanwhile, a cutoff low pressure system will reside across the Southern Plains. This system will move northeast into Iowa and southeast Minnesota on Monday bringing the chance of showers and t-storms.
🔴Temperatures will gradually warm as they climb above average (80°). Humidity will also get a boost.
❗️FRIDAY: Sunshine with high temperatures in the low 80s. Dew point temperatures will rise into the 60s so it'll definitely feel a little more humid. There will be a south wind around 10-25 MPH.
❗️SATURDAY: Another day of sunshine with high temperatures in the low/mid 80s. Dew points are expected to climb to near or in the 70s which will put the heat index (feels-like) around 90°. A south wind will gust up to 25 MPH at times.
❗️SUNDAY: We'll see more clouds from an approaching storm system, but still plenty of sunshine. High temperatures again in the mid-80s with dew points near 70° leading to a muggy day. There will be a southerly breeze with gusts up to 25 MPH at times.
🔴A storm system will approach from the southwest on Monday as additional energy pushes in from the west leading to showers & t-storms. There are still some uncertainties on the timing of these waves and how they'll play out. Details to come.
![[THURS. 6:12 AM] - Today will be your typical July day with temperatures around average with highs near or in the low 80...](https://img4.medioq.com/007/198/122177137520071983.jpg)
[THURS. 6:12 AM] - Today will be your typical July day with temperatures around average with highs near or in the low 80s. Humidity will be a bit noticeable and the wind fairly light.
**WEDNESDAY FORECAST** (July 24, 2024)
We're in for a quiet stretch of weather until Monday when the next rain chance arrives. Temperatures will gradually warm through the weekend with more heat and humidity soaring into the region by the middle of next week! 🥵
CRANK UP THE HEAT & HUMIDITY: Summer is far from over as heat and humidity are set to soar heading into next week.
🔴Temperatures are set to gradually inch up the rest of this week and into the weekend. Highs will go from near 80° on Thursday into the mid-80s by Sunday. Humidity will be tolerable as dew point temperatures are expected to generally be in the 60s.
🔴The next chance for any rain will come Monday as a frontal system slides through leading to showers & t-storms. Thereafter, a warm front will lift north through the area heading into Wednesday as a high pressure ridge sets up over the central part of the country extending into the Upper Midwest resulting in summertime heat and humidity soaring into the region. The storm track will also shift to the north and east around the periphery of the high pressure.
🔴Temperatures aren't going to be overly hot, with upper 80s likely through the middle of the week - some may get close to or exceed 90° - but the humidity will make it feel really tropical as dew point temperatures are expected to be well into the 70s. The combination of the air temperatures and the dew point equals the heat index, or what it feels like on the skin. Heat indices in the mid/upper 90s will be likely with some places close to 100° which will be more likely further west.
Summer marches on!! 😁🥵
[WED. 9:05 AM] - Smoke from Canadian wildfires will thin out a bit across southeast Minnesota and portions of north Iowa today as high pressure over the Great Lakes will lead to a northeast wind keeping the bulk of the smoke further west.
However, smoke will return on Thursday and into Friday. Little, if any, will reach the surface as most is expected to stay elevated leading to hazy skies at times.
Good Wednesday morning and Happy HUMP DAY!!
I'm tracking a few morning showers & t-storms across north Iowa. Otherwise, a quiet and seasonably mild day is expected, but heat and humidity are on the move. We're live on-air and online until 7:00 AM.
WATCH LIVE: https://www.kaaltv.com/live/
TUESDAY T-STORMS & WILDFIRE SMOKE: Showers and a few t-storms will be possible for some. The sky may also look hazy at times due to smoke from Canadian wildfires.
🔴A shortwave trough (disturbance) will swing through the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region today sliding a cold front through the area leading to showers & t-storms mainly around or after lunchtime into the afternoon and evening. These will be scattered about and not everyone will see them.
🔴The front will likely be near/south of the MN/IA state line where the bulk of any t-storm development is expected to be during the afternoon and evening. While severe weather isn't expected, a strong t-storm is possible that may produce small hail and gusty winds given modest instability and wind shear.
🔴IF we get any breaks in the clouds, you may notice some haze due to smoke from Canadian wildfires. It's mostly expected to stay aloft in the atmosphere, however can't discount some mixing to the surface as the cold front passes through. The Minnesota Pollution Control Agency has a Moderate (yellow) AQI in place for all of southeast Minnesota through today. High pressure builds in on Wednesday and with a northeast wind that should scour out some of the smoke and keeping it mainly to the west,
[TUES. 8:35 AM] - **RADAR UPDATE**
Showers and t-storms continue to slowly track across west/central Minnesota this morning. These are moving to the southeast and are expected to weaken as they push into southeast Minnesota around lunchtime.
Additional scattered showers & t-storms are possible this afternoon & evening, but not everyone will see them.
![[TUES. 5:21 AM] - Fog has developed in some areas this morning. It's thicker in some spots while more patchy in others. ...](https://img5.medioq.com/407/198/122176809764071983.jpg)
[TUES. 5:21 AM] - Fog has developed in some areas this morning. It's thicker in some spots while more patchy in others. Be prepared for rapid changes in visibility this morning.
**MONDAY FORECAST** (July 22, 2024)
A warm, humid and hazy Monday afternoon will give way to the chance of showers and t-storms late Monday night and again on Tuesday. Then, we dry out the rest of the week with warming temperatures into the weekend.
T-STORMS & SUMMERTIME HEAT TO RETURN: Showers & t-storms will be possible late Monday night and again on Tuesday afternoon. A pattern change will bring summertime heat & humidity back to the region this weekend into next week.
🔴A shortwave trough (disturbance) will slide through the region late Monday night (after midnight) leading to showers and t-storms. Some may linger into early Tuesday morning especially near/south of I-90. This boundary will be near the area on Tuesday afternoon leading to more scattered development. Any showers & t-storms will end Tuesday evening.
🔴SEVERE: The threat for severe weather is low due to the fact there is lack of wind shear to keep t-storms organized. However, with ample instability, a strong t-storm will small hail is possible along with heavier downpours.
🔴The rest of the week is looking quiet as a high pressure ridge begins to nudge into the area resulting in the return of summertime heat and humidity which will arrive over the weekend once the ridge gets established and amplifies pushing the jet stream to the north.
🔴High temperatures will be trending above average from Thursday into next week as they push into the mid/upper 80s. The Climate Prediction Center's latest temperature outlook has the entire Upper Midwest in a high probability of above average temperatures in the 6-10 day period which closes out the month of July.
WILDFIRE SMOKE & HAZY SKIES: Canadian wildfire smoke once again is making its way into Minnesota.
🔴Satellite imagery as of Monday morning shows wildfire smoke making its way south into the Upper Midwest and Northern Plains due to northwest flow aloft at jet stream level.
🔴Smoke will linger through the day and possibly even into Tuesday leading to hazy skies. Most of the smoke will stay elevated above the surface. The Minnesota Pollution Control Agency has issued a Moderate (yellow) AQI for today and Tuesday which means air pollution levels are elevated and may cause health effects for people who are vulnerable to air pollution.
🔴According to the Canadian Interagency Forest Fire Centre, Inc. more than 800 fires are burning across Canada as of Monday morning.
![[MON. 5:12 AM] - Good Monday morning!A **DENSE FOG ADVISORY** is in place for areas mainly near and north of I-90 until ...](https://img4.medioq.com/007/198/122176585880071983.jpg)
[MON. 5:12 AM] - Good Monday morning!
A **DENSE FOG ADVISORY** is in place for areas mainly near and north of I-90 until 8:00 AM. Visibility of 1/4 mile or less is possible in some areas.
**FRIDAY FORECAST** (July 19, 2024)
Spotty showers and t-storms will be around through the weekend. There will be LOTS of dry time in between and a lot of places may not see anything at all. Daily rain chances continue through the middle of next week with near average temperatures.
WEEKEND OUTLOOK: We enter into a more active pattern with daily chances for rain through the middle of next week (although lots of dry time) with near average temperatures and higher humidity. Still, not bad for late July.
🔴A shortwave trough (disturbance) will dive southeast from the northern plains into Iowa later Friday night into the overnight. It'll be close enough that some showers and a few t-storms will be possible especially near the I-35 corridor. A few may sneak further east into Saturday morning.
🔴This trough will eventually get cutoff from the main jet stream and reside over the central part of the country through at least the middle of next week leading to daily chances for showers and t-storms - most will occur during the afternoon and evening. It will also keep the summer heat and higher humidity out of the area as temperatures are expected to be near average (80°).
🔴WEEKEND FORECAST
SATURDAY: A few light showers are possible for some in the morning. Isolated showers and t-storms will bubble up during the afternoon as daytime instability interacts with moisture. Highs will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s along with dew points in the 60s will lead to a bit of a humid day.
SUNDAY: A few afternoon isolated showers and t-storms will be possible with most staying dry. Highs will again be near average around 80° with some humidity.
Have a good weekend! 😀
JULY 19, 1994: An F3 tornado tracked intermittently across Howard & Winneshiek Counties in northeast Iowa, from just west of Schley to 7 miles north of Decorah. One farmstead was completely destroyed with multiple others sustaining heavy damage.
This same storm produced a wind gust of 98 MPH in Cresco and caused over $500,000 in damage - one of the worst storms to hit the Cresco area.
Multiple other tornadoes touched down that day across northeast Iowa including an F1 tornado that moved east across Allamakee County from 2.5 miles west-northwest of Waukon to 2 miles south of Church. Also, an F1 tornado did significant damage to a farmstead just west of Elma.
![[FRI. 5:42 AM] - HAPPY FINALLY FRIDAY!! It'll be another quiet day and much like the last few days, it'll start with sun...](https://img4.medioq.com/607/198/122175992276071983.jpg)
[FRI. 5:42 AM] - HAPPY FINALLY FRIDAY!! It'll be another quiet day and much like the last few days, it'll start with sunshine before clouds build this afternoon as additional moisture arrives.
A low pressure system will dive southeast from the northern plains and will be close enough to pop a few light showers and t-storms late tonight mainly near the I-35 corridor.
**THURSDAY FORECAST** (July 18, 2024)
Another banner of day with comfortably warm temperatures and low humidity. One more pleasant day for Friday and then humidity and rain chances will be on the rise through the weekend.
JULY 18, 1936: This day marked the end of the hottest period on record for Rochester. The heat wave broke all-time high temperature records for the city including 108°F on July 14. The average high temperature during the period of July 6-18 was 102.8°F.
The warmest Minnesota temperature on record was also tied in this heat wave, when it reached 114°F on July 6th in Moorhead.
The 1936 heat wave occurred during the Great Depression and Dust Bowl of the 1930s and was one of Minnesota's worst heat waves. More than 700 people died in Minnesota during the heat wave, with some estimates closer to 900.
![[THURS. 5:10 AM] - Thursday will be very similar to Wednesday with the only real difference being that temperatures will...](https://img4.medioq.com/607/198/122175829856071983.jpg)
[THURS. 5:10 AM] - Thursday will be very similar to Wednesday with the only real difference being that temperatures will be a touch warmer with highs in the mid/upper 70s.
Otherwise, high pressure overhead will lead to another quiet, and comfortable day with sunshine to start before some clouds bubble up during the afternoon.
**WEDNESDAY FORECAST** (July 17, 2024)
We're seeing quite the change from hot and humid to cooler and more comfortable weather. It'll stick around into the weekend before the humidity and rain chances return heading into next week.
SEASONABLY COOL, DRY STRETCH: We're in for quite a treat over the next several days as it's not going to feel like the middle of July as we get a temporary break from the heat and humidity.
🔴Canadian high pressure will setup over the Upper Midwest leading to a reprieve from the heat and humidity that has gripped the area over the last few days. Cooler than average temperatures and much drier air will lead to some comfortable days ahead along with lots of sunshine and some bouts of clouds in between.
🔴A low pressure trough, or cutoff low, will setup across the central part of the country from Thursday into next week. That will lead to cooler than average temperatures across much of the central part of the country from Minnesota south to Texas along with unsettled weather and rain for some.
🔴High pressure will shift further east on Saturday. It'll keep the deeper moisture south, but moisture return will be ongoing across the plains as dew points increase leading to higher humidity and showers and t-storms as some weak waves move through.
🔴Moisture will start to nudge into southeast Minnesota and north Iowa on Sunday as the high pressure scoots further east and the air flow becomes more southerly. The low pressure trough will still persist over the central part of the country as weak shortwaves, or disturbances, move through leading to daily chances for showers & t-storms from Sunday to Wednesday. Temperatures will also climb back to near or above average in the 80s along with higher humidity.
![[WED. 5:19 AM] - Canadian high pressure will settle overhead leading to a quiet day along with pleasant temperatures for...](https://img3.medioq.com/807/198/122175634328071983.jpg)
[WED. 5:19 AM] - Canadian high pressure will settle overhead leading to a quiet day along with pleasant temperatures for mid-July.
Highs are expected to be well below average (80°) with most seeing temperatures in the low/mid 70s! Dew point temperatures will also be in the 50s making for a much more comfortable day. 😁
Good Wednesday morning! Happy Hump Day!
We begin a stretch of cooler than average and less humid weather that will last into the weekend. I'm tracking some pleasant July weather and when rain and humidity returns. Join us on-air and online until 7:00 AM.
WATCH LIVE: https://www.kaaltv.com/live/
**TUESDAY FORECAST** (July 16, 2024)
A spotty shower is possible today, and that it's for rain for several days as drier and much more comfortable weather settles in. Say goodbye to the heat & humidity for now!
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**FRIDAY FORECAST** (July 26, 2024) Quiet, warm and muggy weather is expected this weekend. A slight chance of a spotty Sunday afternoon shower with higher rain chances coming late Sunday night into Monday morning. Summer heat & humidity to linger through next week.
**THURSDAY FORECAST** (July 25, 2024) Temperatures and humidity will be on the rise through the weekend. The next rain chance comes on Monday with more heat and humidity to follow next week.
**WEDNESDAY FORECAST** (July 24, 2024) We're in for a quiet stretch of weather until Monday when the next rain chance arrives. Temperatures will gradually warm through the weekend with more heat and humidity soaring into the region by the middle of next week! 🥵
[WED. 9:05 AM] - Smoke from Canadian wildfires will thin out a bit across southeast Minnesota and portions of north Iowa today as high pressure over the Great Lakes will lead to a northeast wind keeping the bulk of the smoke further west. However, smoke will return on Thursday and into Friday. Little, if any, will reach the surface as most is expected to stay elevated leading to hazy skies at times.
[TUES. 8:35 AM] - **RADAR UPDATE** Showers and t-storms continue to slowly track across west/central Minnesota this morning. These are moving to the southeast and are expected to weaken as they push into southeast Minnesota around lunchtime. Additional scattered showers & t-storms are possible this afternoon & evening, but not everyone will see them.
**MONDAY FORECAST** (July 22, 2024) A warm, humid and hazy Monday afternoon will give way to the chance of showers and t-storms late Monday night and again on Tuesday. Then, we dry out the rest of the week with warming temperatures into the weekend.
**FRIDAY FORECAST** (July 19, 2024) Spotty showers and t-storms will be around through the weekend. There will be LOTS of dry time in between and a lot of places may not see anything at all. Daily rain chances continue through the middle of next week with near average temperatures.
**THURSDAY FORECAST** (July 18, 2024) Another banner of day with comfortably warm temperatures and low humidity. One more pleasant day for Friday and then humidity and rain chances will be on the rise through the weekend.
**WEDNESDAY FORECAST** (July 17, 2024) We're seeing quite the change from hot and humid to cooler and more comfortable weather. It'll stick around into the weekend before the humidity and rain chances return heading into next week.
**TUESDAY FORECAST** (July 16, 2024) A spotty shower is possible today, and that it's for rain for several days as drier and much more comfortable weather settles in. Say goodbye to the heat & humidity for now!
WOW! Take a look at this derecho, or long-lived windstorm, EXPLODE in size across Iowa and Illinois yesterday. Wind gusts up to 80 MPH and several tornadoes were reported as these t-storms barreled east. You can see how powerful these t-storms are by using infrared satellite imagery. Instead of using sunlight to reflect off of clouds, the clouds are identified by satellite sensors that measure heat radiating off of them. Clouds will be colder than land and water, so they are easily identified. Infrared imagery is useful for determining thunderstorm intensity. Strong to severe t-storms will normally have very cold tops and dark colors (red, black, etc.). Infrared imagery can also be used for identifying other features.
The Storm Prediction Center has upgraded the severe weather potential across eastern Iowa, southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois - including the Chicago area - to a Level 4 out of 5! 🔴Significant damaging wind gusts of 60-90 MPH are possible along with some tornadoes. 🔴Southeast Minnesota and north Iowa remain in a Level 2 out of 5 with a strong t-storm or two still possible with strong winds, hail and a tornado possible. The animation is the HRRR model and its representation of how the severe weather threat may unfold. Notice how the t-storms quickly intensify into a bowing segment that pose the significant wind threat.
**MONDAY FORECAST** (July 15, 2024) A strong t-storm is still possible later today for some, although the higher likelihood for severe weather is south into eastern Iowa. A few more light showers are possible on Tuesday, otherwise it'll turn cooler and much more comfortable the rest of the week.
**FRIDAY FORECAST** (July 12, 2024) Heat & humidity will crank up this weekend. We've certainly had worse in previous summers, but take precautions if spending time outdoors. There's also the chance of showers & t-storms mainly late Saturday night. Have a good weekend! Stay cool!
**THURSDAY FORECAST** (July 11, 2024) A spotty shower or t-storm is possible this afternoon with a quiet and warm day expected on Friday. Heat and humidity is set to ramp up this weekend. It'll also come with chances for showers and t-storms although several uncertainties remain on their development.
**WEDNESDAY FORECAST** (July 10, 2024) Showers & t-storms will be around until about sunset tonight, but most areas will stay dry. Temperatures will gradually warm the rest of the week with heat and humidity kicking in this weekend with some of the hottest air of the season so far.
**TUESDAY FORECAST** (July 9, 2024) A few spotty showers and t-storms are possible this afternoon and evening and again on Wednesday. Summertime heat and humidity is set to kick in this weekend with some of the warmest air of the season so far.
**FRIDAY FORECAST** (July 5, 2024) Showers will continue on and off through the rest of today until about sunset. Additional chances for rain are likely over the weekend, but plenty of dry time in between. Looking ahead to next week, more rain chances with warming temperatures.
[THURS. 12:50 PM] - **RADAR UPDATE** Showers and t-storms are developing ahead of a cold front across portions of southwest/west Minnesota and north Iowa. So far, they are well-behaved, but as instability (energy) continues to grow, a strong-to-severe t-storm is possible. Hail, wind and a brief tornado or two are possible. TIMING: Still looking like around 2:00 PM to 7:00 PM for best chance for any severe t-storms.
[THURS. 8:45 AM] **RADAR CHECK** Energy swinging around the base of an upper level trough digging south across the northern plains is leading to showers and isolated thunderstorms across southeast Minnesota. Once these pass, outside of a few spotty showers, much of the area will be dry until a surface low pressure and cold front swing through later this afternoon leading to another round of showers and t-storms, some of which may be strong.
