12/17/2024
**THURSDAY CLIPPER // ACCUMULATING SNOW**
A potent clipper system will dive southeast from Alberta, Canada, into the Northern Plains and Minnesota leading to a round of wintry weather on Thursday.
🔴A vigorous shortwave trough (disturbance), or clipper system, will sweep across the area on Thursday. A surface low pressure will also develop in the Northern Plains and push southeast through southern Minnesota into central Iowa through the day.
🔴Ahead of the system, low-level warm air advection will occur leading to vertical motion and rising air resulting in precipitation developing on the east-to-northeast side of the surface low. Temperatures throughout the atmospheric profile are expected to be below-freezing so snow will be the main precipitation type.
🔴Snow will likely develop sometime around or before daybreak on Thursday with snow showers continuing through much of the day. The heaviest, or bulk, of the snow will likely occur during the morning before wrapping up around lunchtime or in the early afternoon hours. A trailing shortwave will usher in cold air advection and help squeeze out the remaining moisture with snow showers likely continuing into the evening hours.
🔴There have been notable shifts (south and north) in recent weather model runs over the last day or so as the storm system continues to wobble around most likely because the storms' energy is still off the Pacific coast. Once it makes it onshore, the National Weather Service's weather balloon network can sample its data and ingest it into the models with hopefully a clearer and more high confidence track can be narrowed down. Just subtle differences in the storm track can make a big difference in who may see several inches of snow to very little.
🔴Snow accumulation is looking likely as this system has fairly strong dynamics and moisture to work with. The 24-hour probability of at least 2" of snow from Thursday morning to Friday morning is around 40-80% across southeast Minnesota and below 40% across north Iowa. The probability of at least 4" of snow is >40% near and north of Red Wing into east-central Minnesota and western Wisconsin. So, this is a good start and the snow forecast will likely become clearer in the next 12-24 hours.
Be prepared for a slippery Thursday morning and evening commute! 🚗❄️