Kevin Myatt's Weather Wonders

02/21/2025

We can catch our breath for a while. It'll be cold the next couple of mornings -- lots of teens, some single digits -- but each afternoon gets a little warmer until some parts of Southwest and Southside Virginia are scraping 60 around Tuesday with lows only in the 40s. Precipitation -- most likely rain -- does not show up again until late next week.

Beyond that, it does appear Arctic air will return in some fashion for the first week of March, and there may be some interaction with moist southerly flow. At this stage, no one can say if there will be more winter storms or if we've had our last this season. But it may be back on the table around that time.

I plan to take a break from weather posting here for a while until something interesting/inclement starts happening again. Unless that is much sooner than I think, the next post here will probably be next week's Cardinal News weather column on Wednesday. Much appreciation to everyone who has been along for the ride and for being respectful and supportive in making this a social media corner of decency and sense.

(Photo below: Snowy field at Virginia Tech)

02/20/2025

THURSDAY MORNING SNOW UPDATE

Bands of snow are moving eastward into western Virginia on this Thursday morning. (National Weather Service radar courtesy o f RadarScope app.) These are caused by the lift of an upper-level low-pressure system, not strictly by surface flow over the mountains -- the bands lining up parallel to the mountains as opposed to narrow streamers perpendicular to the ridges is one clue of that. As a result these will move past the mountains across Southwest and Southside Virginia this morning with a quick burst of moderate to heavy snow in many locations, resulting in briefly lowered visibility and quickly re-covered streets and roads. Accumulations are not likely to exceed an inch with these bands because they are fast movers. Periods of lighter snow showers and flurries will continue behind the snow bands, gradually becoming more focused on the mountains as typical upslope snow showers and squalls with gusty northwest winds bringing in a new batch of Arctic air.

We will have a cold weekend with teens-20s lows, some single digits, and 30s-40s highs. The early to middle part of next week promises milder temperatures and little or no precipitation. Late next week into the weekend looks to be the next period of potential widespread precipitation followed by renewed Arctic air heading into the first week of March. There may be a pattern again favorable for the possibility of wintry precipitation episodes during that timeframe. Spring isn't here yet, just a calm break from a memorably active weather pattern.

02/19/2025

NEW THURSDAY MORNING POST HERE: https://www.facebook.com/share/p/1ADAYG1HPW/

WEDNESDAY EVENING SNOW UPDATE

Beware of a possible sneaky snow on Thursday morning and overnight refreezing of melted snow from Wednesday on roadways.

After many 1-2-inch snow reports today around the region, some a little more or a little less, Southwest/Southside Virginia will see only some light flurries or snow showers through the evening and most of the overnight as the new coastal low pulls away.

From the pre-dawn hours of Thursday until about mid-morning, an upper-level low approaching from the west may trigger a quick round of fairly vigorous snow showers across our region. These are caused by the atmospheric lift of the system high above us, not strictly from upslope wind flow over the mourntains, so could well survive past the mountains if this in fact comes to fruition. Aside from some Southwest corner and western fringe higher elevation areas that might get a couple or three inches from this, additional accumulations are unlikely to exceed an inch anywhere else, but as cold as it will be with possible refreezing of melted snow from today, roads may become slippery and visibility could be reduced in stronger snow showers during the morning commute.

After that, it's windy and cold as a reinforcing shot of Arctic air pushes in, with widespread teens lows and some single-digits by Friday morning. However, temperature slowly moderate through the weekend and there are no further precipitation systems expected for at least a week. Temperatures may even scrape 60 a day or two in the early to middle part of next week.

It's not spring bursting forth, but it is a much needed calmer weather break. That's what this week's Cardinal Weather column is about, linked in the first comment below.

THURSDAY MORNING SNOW UPDATE

Bands of snow are moving eastward into western Virginia on this Thursday morning. (National Weather Service radar courtesy o f RadarScope app.) These are caused by the lift of an upper-level low-pressure system, not strictly by surface flow over the mountains -- the bands lining up parallel to the mountains as opposed to narrow streamers perpendicular to the ridges is one clue of that. As a result these will move past the mountains across Southwest and Southside Virginia this morning with a quick burst of moderate to heavy snow in many locations, resulting in briefly lowered visibility and quickly re-covered streets and roads. Accumulations are not likely to exceed an inch with these bands because they are fast movers. Periods of lighter snow showers and flurries will continue behind the snow bands, gradually becoming more focused on the mountains as typical upslope snow showers and squalls with gusty northwest winds bringing in a new batch of Arctic air.

We will have a cold weekend with teens-20s lows, some single digits, and 30s-40s highs. The early to middle part of next week promises milder temperatures and little or no precipitation. Late next week into the weekend looks to be the next period of potential widespread precipitation followed by renewed Arctic air heading into the first week of March. There may be a pattern again favorable for the possibility of wintry precipitation episodes during that timeframe. Spring isn't here yet, just a calm break from a memorably active weather pattern.

02/19/2025

NEW WED PM SNOW UPDATE: https://www.facebook.com/share/p/1F6U1CYtes/

WEDNESDAY MORNING SNOW UPDATE:

At this point, 5:30 a.m., I am expecting snow today to be on low end, 2 inches or less, for most of Southwest/Southside Virginia, based on radar presentation, short-term models, moisture-robbing effects of Gulf Coast convection and the energy transfer later today to a coastal system. It will still be slippery in many places as the snow accumulates on roadways. Expect intermittent periods of light snow until about mid-afternoon.

Thursday morning could be a sneaky round, given the attention that has been focused on Wednesday and its arrival just before and during morning commute, possibly even producing as much or a little more for some than today's snow. This will be caused by a northern stream upper-level low and will likely survive crossing the mountains with the upper-level lift it will bring. We'll revisit that this evening.

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02/19/2025

NEW WEDNESDAY UPDATE HERE: https://www.facebook.com/share/p/1BGKxjUYGj/

TUESDAY EVENING UPDATE ON WEDNESDAY SNOW EVENT

My Cardinal News article about the snow is linked, with a very generalized map about what accumulations to expect across Virginia.

General idea: A large area of light to moderate snow spreads from west to east across most of Virginia on Wednesday morning, starting well before dawn in the Southwest corner, reaching the Blue Ridge/Roanoke Valley near sunrise and farther eastward into the morning. Most of this snow area sweeps across by early to mid-afternoon. Generally about 2-3 inches can be expected, with closer to 1 for some and 4 in a few spots.

Farther east, toward Richmond and Hampton Roads, the snow will intensify by late Wednesday afternoon and evening as a low-pressure system deepens just offshore of the Carolinas. That's where the best chance of 6-plus inches will happen.

Overnight Wednesday into early Thursday, a second area of snow will move west to east across much of the state. This could effectively double snowfall amounts to the 4-6 inch range or even a little more in some of the southwest corner, and add perhaps up to another inch over parts of western and central Virginia. Don't be surprised if some spots cleared after Wednesday snow are re-whitened on Thursday morning.

There is still a chance Wednesday's snow will dry up a little more and be very minimal with lots of inch-or-less totals or moisten up just a tad with more widespread 3-6 inches. This could vary across our region with streaks of dry slots or somewhat heavier bands, always difficult to pinpoint ahead of time.

There is NO ICE with this.

After this snow episode, there is no more precipitation beyond some mountain snow showers expected for the next week, and we get back in the 50s in the afternoon by the early to middle part of next week. The next few mornings will be quite cold, though, some single-digits and teens lows by Friday morning.

Most of Cardinal News’ southern Virginia coverage area expected to see 1 to 4 inches, but the Southwest corner and some parts of Southside could get a little more.

02/18/2025

MONDAY NIGHT UPDATE FOR WEDNESDAY SNOW EVENT:

There is a reason the "big dog" snowstorms that spread a foot or more over most places across our Southwest/Southside Virginia region only happen about twice a decade on average. (For those counting, December 2018 was our last, but it was one of four in nine years.) Even when the overall pattern is conducive for such an event, it's hard to get the upper-level wind features lined up just right to make it happen. With the southern stream "energy" outrunning the northern stream shortwave, they're not quite lining up for a major (12+) or even widespread large (6+) snowstorm for the bulk of our region this time around.

Below is the National Weather Service-Blacksburg office's current forecast map for Wednesday as of Monday evening, and it is fairly close to anything I could draw up at this point, as it appears 2-4 inches of snow is the reasonable median range for much of our region, with perhaps some 6-inch amounts east of the U.S. 29 corridor (Lynchburg to Danville). Somewhere farther east, this may in fact blow up into a legitimate snowstorm of 6-10 inches. There are still some variables, such as whether a low-pressure system will amplify more quickly to the southeast which could drive up our amounts, whether the moisture field approaching from the west will dry out further and erode the amounts even a little more, and whether there will be a following wave of snow stretching into Thursday morning from the northern-stream shortwave.

Expect snow to spread across our region at or just before sunrise Wednesday and continue intermittently, light to moderate in intensity, through at least mid-afternoon, possibly longer, especially east of the Blue Ridge.

I will continue to watch this for any changes on Tuesday. There will probably be some at least modest boom and bust surprises somewhere as it unfolds on Wednesday.

02/16/2025

Weather woes continue, as gusty winds now have raised power outages across Virginia back to the 200,000 level they were just after the ice storm last week. Flooding has inundated homes in the southwest corner of Virginia as well, and several thousand hadn't got their electricity back from the ice storm especially along the Blue Ridge south of Roanoke before the flooding and high winds came.

Snow is expected Wednesday. This is looking like a moderate event at this point, 3-6 inches or so across our region, but could still edge up or down some. A total miss is very unlikely as is a widespread foot-plus storm, some of the pieces aren't coming together for that to happen. I know a lot of people like snow and would like a big one, but frankly, I think with all the other weather suffering currently ongoing and many thousands unlikely to have power restored before the snow arrives, this would be a bad time for a blizzard.

Strong westerly winds gusting over 50 mph were bringing in Arctic air, setting up a likely midweek snowfall.

02/16/2025

Just almost too much weather to keep up with in Southwest/Southside Virginia. Today, it's flooding. Sunday it will be high winds. Wedneday, very likely, it will be snow. Latest update on Cardinal News (no paywall).

Rain will subside on Sunday, but winds will kick up, likely causing more tree and power line damage. Snow is likely for Virginia by Wednesday.

02/15/2025

Weather hazards to come for Southwest/Southside Virginia:

(1) Patchy freezing rain mainly along and west of the Blue Ridge early Saturday. Nothing to the scale of what we just experienced but there could be some slick spots especially in higher elevations for a short time.

(2) Periods of heavy rain with some flooding possible Saturday into Sunday. Many rivers are already high because of recent bouts of precipitation. West Virginia and border areas of Virginia have the highest threat of flooding because the heaviest rain will track to the west and because many of the mountainous areas there have thick snow cover that will partially melt in the heavy rain.

(3) Strong winds that may gust to 60 mph at times by late Sunday as a cold front moves through. Limbs loosened and weakened by recent ice will be more susceptible to falling, and unfortunately there will probably be more scattered power outages (or re-outages in some places). This will also be the beginning of a period of Arctic air with below-normal temperatures lasting at least 10 days, possibly longer.

(4) Widespread snow is probable around Wednesday and Thursday with a storm system tracking across the South and up the East Coast. Atmospheric features are lined up in historically favorable patterns for larger snow events in or near our region, but of course it will be in the details whether this ends up a small, medium, or large snow event or even a near-miss for our region. Sleet mix cannot entirely be ruled out for at least part of our region at this distance, but the track and setup look very unlikely to be another ice storm. We'll revisit this situation as we get closer.

02/13/2025

It's been a bad ice storm over a big chunk of Cardinal News'
Southwest/Southside Virginia coverage area, maybe the worst in 30 years. 200,000 are without power and there is widespread tree damage. Sunny push into 40s today but a cold front's gusty winds will break some more limbs later. Weekend soaking rain -- possibly starting as freezing rain for some, eek! -- and then sharply colder weather next week with more winter storm potential.

The outages are 2/3s of what they were during Helene. Temperatures are expected to reach the 40s today over much of Southwest and Southside Virginia, but gusty winds behind a cold front may bring more ice-laden limbs down.

02/13/2025

WEDNESDAY EVENING UPDATE 8:30 PM

One more wave of rain/freezing rain arrives in Southwest/Southside Virginia just before midnight and continues until just before sunrise. Temperatures are variable in short distances between 31 and 34 degrees, and thus, whether this is additional ice accumulation or not will vary considerably. The strip from the Blue Ridge south of Roanoke across Southside to the Richmond metro area has endured the brunt of the ice storm with many reports of tree damage and the bulk of the approximately 150,000 Virginia utility customers without power. About 80% of Floyd County is without power, most of that happening since this morning.

A warm surge finally arrives Thursday with sunshine, pushing temperatures into the 40s and 50s to melt a lot of what has fallen, but there will be some wind too and that may add to tree/power issues. A cold front sweeps across Thursday afternoon and leads to chilly morning temperatures the next couple of mornings.

Weekend rain might start with some patchy freezing rain in western and northern parts of our region on Saturday morning, but will mostly be just a soaking weekend rain as the parent storm tracks well north and west of our region and drags a lot of warmth and Gulf moisture northward. Arctic air slides in behind that storm and takes control of the weather for much of the last half of February. There is a possible winter storm to watch for the middle to latter part of next week.

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02/12/2025

WEDNESDAY MORNING WINTER STORM UPDATE:

Power outages getting as bad as feared especially in stripe from Blue Ridge through Southside to Richmond. More intermittent freezing rain today, but many areas poke a little above freezing today. Hopefully they'll stay there with more rain/freezing rain and marginal temperatures tonight, but where it's 32 or below, and especially in heavily snow-covered areas to north that didn't get as much freezing rain, there will likely be more icy trouble tonight before a sharp warmup to 40s and 50s during the day on Thursday.

Temperatures may rise a few critical degrees to just above freezing later today over parts of the southern half of Virginia, but progress will be stubborn with widespread snow cover and cold air being banked against the higher terrain.

02/11/2025

TUESDAY EVENING UPDATE, 5:45PM: Most locations along and south of the U.S. 460 corridor are entering the freezing rain portion of this winter storm, while a mix of snow and sleet continues to the north, all snow the closer you get to the Interstate 64 corridor which has seen some 8-14 inch snow amounts today. Sleet and ice will continue to push northward through the evening, and many areas that have had heavier snow today are going to see off an on ice through Thursday morning. Farther south, ice will begin to be a problem overnight especially along the Blue Ridge south of Roanoke, but also just about anywhere that manages to stay 28-32 degrees could collect enough ice to sag trees (already sagging from wet snow in many cases) or cause scattered power outages. Travel will continue to be icy or slushy in most areas overnight and should largely be avoided if possible. A messy and rough winter storm still has some acts to play out after what was snow fun for many winds down. END UPDATE

02/11/2025

MIDDAY TUESDAY UPDATE:

Snow continues this afternoon mostly north of the U.S. 460 corridor (Blacksburg-Christiansburg-Roanoke-Lynchburg) with some sleet along the southern edge of the snow area, while areas farther south are in a lull with only patchy light sleet and snow. The first band of strong lift has moved northward, but it did what it had to do for a fairly widespread snow this morning, with many 2-4 inch reports. Some locations north of U.S. 460 are likely to top 4 inches this afternoon as snow continues.

Moisture will stream back over the region later this afternoon, beginning as a sleet/snow mixture that might add another an inch or two and then changing to freezing rain (where it is 30-32) or light rain (where it is 33-34). It is during the evening and overnight that we will have to watch for damage to trees and powerlines in areas that get the most freezing rain.

Freezing rain will again be a risk intermittently on Wednesday and then perhaps more widespread on Wednesday night and early Thursday, though many locations may manage to get above the freezing mark Wednesday afternoon and possibly stay there overnight. Thursday will see a quick warmup that melts much of what has fallen, possibly reaching 50 degrees in lower elevations east of the Blue Ridge. END UPDATE

02/11/2025

TUESDAY MORNING UPDATE, 5:45 a.m.: Snow has spread across much of Southwest/Southside Virginia as of 5:30 a.m., with mixed precipitation just south of the North Carolina state line and slowly encroaching into the snow from the southwest west of Interstate 77. Most forecast guidance overnight has tilted a bit colder aloft for longer, so this may allow snow and later sleet to hang on longer at many locations, delaying the start of freezing rain a few hours. 3-7 inch snowfall amounts now appear likely along much of the Interstate 81 and U.S. 460 corridors, gradually tapering to the south and east while increasing to the north and west. (Current National Weather Service snow forecast map gives a general idea of this.) Freezing rain develops overnight and continues intermittently into Wednesday, with possibly a second round for many Wednesday night, so significant icing may be delayed, not denied. I'll keep an eye on the sleet/ice/rain line today to see how its progress affects going forecasts.

02/11/2025

Monday PM update on Tuesday winter storm.

New Cardinal News story linked below (no paywall!), including a new snowfall forecast map across Virginia.

Short takes:

* Snow begins spreading into Southwest Virginia around 2 a.m. Tuesday morning and likely reaches NRV around 4-5 a.m., Roanoke/Blue Ridge area by 6 a.m., and eastward shortly after sunrise. This first band is very critical to snowfall amounts -- if it is weaker, shifted north, or more mixy than expected, snowfall will be on the low side.

*Snow will change quickly to sleet, freezing rain and rain in southwest corner and along southern edge of state. This changeover will advance northeastward through the day. Its rate of advance will largely determine how much snow accumulates -- the slower it advances, the more snow accumulates before changeover.

* US 460 corridor (Blacksburg/Christiansburg to Roanoke to Lynchburg and east to Richmond) is borderline zone between bigger snowfall amounts over 4 inches to the north and lesser amounts with more sleet/ice to the south, and various locations along this route could slide either way. Somewhere near this corridor, give or take 20 miles north or south, there may be a tight gradient where 1-2 inch amounts are separated from 4-5 inch amounts by 5-10 miles.

* The Blue Ridge south of Roanoke -- Bent Mountain, Floyd and Carroll counties -- may be particularly in line for heavy icing by Tuesday afternoon and evening.

* The more sleet occurs, the less snowfall and ice accumulation there will be, but it will continue making roads slippery.

* We may have another round of freezing rain on Wednesday night. The overall trend is warmer the rest of the week, but there may be enough trapped cold air with snow cover and cold-air damming for ice on Wednesday night.

* I'll post again in the morning to see where we are with this winter weather episode.

Snow, sleet, and freezing rain are expected to cover most of Virginia on Tuesday, with slick roads and power outages likely to develop.

02/10/2025

Sunday night 2/9 update on Tuesday winter storm:

Cardinal News article linked below.

A few pertinent facts:

Precipitation looks to start 4-7a.m west of the Blue Ridge and a little later to east, starting as snow, changing to sleet, freezing rain and rain from south and southwest during the day.

Still a lot of variance and bounce in forecast guidance on snowfall amounts, based on many factors. Map with article is toward median expectations (2-5 for most of our region, less than 2 near NC border, 4+ more toward I-64). May simply come down to how fast it falls before mix window closes in on it. I've seen similar situations break both ways, toward more or less snow, over 25 years of watching regional winter storms.

Ice could become a serious factor especially along the Blue Ridge south of Roanoke and perhaps parts of the New River Valley and the I-77 corridor by late Tuesday. There may be a second round of freezing rain late Wednesday and Thursday.

Several moving parts to this still. Hope to have a little more clarity by Monday evening.

Variable factors could still raise or lower snowfall amounts especially in a stripe across Cardinal News’ Southwest and Southside coverage area.

02/08/2025

UPDATED SUNDAY NIGHT POST HERE: https://www.facebook.com/share/p/1BNPKT3DEN/

Saturday AM 2/8 update regarding 2/11 winter storm:

Just going to quickly post what I also posted on X/Twitter & BlueSky this morning, verbatim, plus the NOAA Weather Prediction Center graphic on probability of at least 0.25 inch liquid equivalent snow and sleet. (2.5 inches or more if all snow).

Expecting more detailed update/Cardinal News article by Sunday night. Attending to other things most of Saturday/Sunday daytime.

Chances of impactful snow to mix winter storm on Tues quite high for most of SW/S'side Va. Phone apps & forecast models are spitting out varying snowfall numbers. Minute differences about how quickly/how far north it mixes & how much it snows before it does are why numbers vary.

f you made me guess now, I'd say 2-4 inches near U.S. 460 (Bburg/Cburg to Roanoke & Lynchburg), 1-2 to south & 4-8 to north. Sleet/ice after snow but short of major ice storm. Bigger amounts can happen with hard thump of AM snow and/or deep locked cold to keep it snowing longer.