Kevin Myatt's Weather Wonders

04/08/2025

Some below-freezing temperatures possible Tuesday morning west of the Blue Ridge, and then across most of Southwest and Southside VIrginia come Wednesday morning. We are too early in the season for frost advisories/freeze warnings but you may have some tender outdoor vegetation you want to take care of.

Temperatures will plummet the next couple of mornings to below freezing areawide. The growing season doesn't officially start until April 11th east of the Blue Ridge, and April 21st west of the Blue Ridge as these are the typical average last days climatologically for a frost/freeze for these areas. You may have sensitive plants outside given the recent warm weather, so you may need to protect them by bringing them indoors or covering them the next two mornings.

04/05/2025

If/where the low clouds manage to get burned off on this Saturday across Southwest/Southside Virginia, temperatures will spike into the 80s at many locations. Clouds and sporadic mostly light showers kept this from happening on Friday as had been expected, except in some areas near the North Carolina border.

Prospects for a halfway decent and much-needed rain have increased for Sunday in our region as a complex of stalled fronts and low-pressure systems that is bringing repeated rounds of severe storms, tornadoes and flooding to the Mississippi and Ohio river valleys finally shifts eastward. There will be at least a marginal risk of a few severe storms late Sunday, though it appears instability and shear will be greatly weaker that what has occurred to our west. The principal effect appears to be rather persistent periods of showers, starting during the day on Sunday and increasing overnight into early Monday, that could drop somewhere near 3/4 to 1 inch or rain on many locations, perhaps more on some.

Behind this front and a couple of reinforcing shots, colder air moves in for next week, with likely widespread frost/freeze potential by Wednesday morning. We may not be late enough on the calendar or bloomed/budded/greened out enough yet for frost and freeze warnings to be issued everywhere in our region, but some of you have tender outdoor plants, so take appropriate precautions.

There may be some late-week showers also and, possibly, mountain snow showers by next weekend as the next shot of colder air moves in.

We appear to be entering a cooler and somewhat damper period for the next several days after the possible warmth spike on this Saturday.

(Photo: Late-day sun obscured by mid and high level clouds, from the Greenfield area of Botetourt County late Friday)

04/03/2025

Once a warm front can lift northward and erode the cool, damp wedge where it is still in place, temperatures will shoot up quickly into the 70s in much of Southwest/Southside Virginia on this Thursday, and strong southwest flow will enable unseasonably warm 80s to near 90 highs Friday and Saturday. Most of the rain and storms that are bombarding states west of us will remain northwest of us as weather systems stall, nudging the western fringes of our region, with perhaps a few stray showers or even a sproadic thunderstorm elsewhere. Shower and storm chances pick up Sunday with the approach of a cold front, then cooler next week, perhaps genuinely cold a couple of days toward mid-late week.

In the meantime, here is Wednesday's Cardinal Weather column about factors that make a storm severe. (No paywall)

When a severe thunderstorm warning gets issued, it refers to two specific storm effects, and those aren’t lightning or pouring rain.

04/02/2025

A high-end severe storms outbreak, with large hail and long-track tornadoes, looks very likely later on this Wednesday for the lower and middle Mississippi River valley extending northeast into the Ohio Valley. That will be the start of a four-day intermittent deluge that could dump 6-12 inches of rain on a wide swath a few hundred miles west of our Southwest/Southside Virginia region. (My native area of northeast Arkansas, where I lived for nearly 30 years, appears to be dead center of both the tornado and flooding danger.)

Unfortunately, that rain does not look like it will spread evenly eastward, as fronts stall and back up to our west then get pushed through quickly over the weekend. Periods of showers through the weekend, peaking on Sunday, may total less than inch for a large part of our parched region, as shown in the attached 7-day rain forecast map from NOAA's Weather Prediction Center.

Wednesday's storms may edge far enough east that the western fringes of our region have a marginal to slight risk of a few severe storms on Thursday. Today's wedge of trapped cool, damp air against the mountains is expected to erode for some unseasonably warm days that could even push 90 late this week. And then in classic bipolar April fashion, unseasonably cold air, frost/freeze mornings and mountain snow showers may be possible by late next week.

03/30/2025

Highs of 83 and 82 were first time for back to back 80s in Roanoke since Nov. 6 and 7. Average first 80-degree day since 1912 is March 30 and since 2000 it's March 27, so pretty much right on time for first lower 80s highs of year in the Star City. Many locations rainged from mid 70s to lower 80s across Southwest and Southside Virginia on Friday and Saturday.

Next couple of days will play out in a familiar manner, with a likely large-scale severe storms outbreak to our west on Sunday, periods of showers ahead of a cold front here Sunday and Monday, and at least some risk of severe storms in our region as the cold front presses into warmth and some humidity on Monday. But the pre-frontal rains are likely to dry up quite a bit crossing the mountains, again, with lesser amounts in Virginia than areas to the west, so some needed wetting of dry soil but not the soaker we really need. Gusty west to northwest winds pick up behind the front by late Monday into Tuesday.

Perhaps another chance of similar happening at midweek and toward next weekend, with some trends suggest a cooler period ahead by the second week of April. Temperatures pull back from recent warmth to mostly 60s and 70s highs, with some 30s to lower 40s lows on Wednesday morning.

(Rainfall forecast map below through Tuesday PM, courtesy of NOAA's Weather Prediction Center)

03/27/2025

One of the wettest Februarys on record in Southwest and Southside Virginia has been followed by what may end up as one of the driest Marches on record. This week's Cardinal News weather column:

After a historically wet February, March could end up among the driest on record in much of Southwest and Southside Virginia.

03/26/2025

Same song, umpteenth verse in this dry, windy March. Red flag warning for extreme fire danger has been issued along and east of the Blue Ridge, but fires can spread quickly anywhere in Virginia and nearby states on this Wednesday.

For Wednesday March 26th, Dry vegetation, very low humidity and gusty northwest winds up to 30 mph will result in an elevated fire risk, perhaps some critical fire risk, across the area for Wednesday. Any burning should be postponed and use extra caution if using outdoor equipment that may produce sparks. Please discard ci******es, extinguish camp fires, and do not dump hot ashes from wood stoves!

03/25/2025

We're in need of some more significant rain but it's not going to happen with this next storm system.

A clipper system will move through the area today, bringing scattered light rain showers. Rain totals will be minimal, with most seeing less than 0.10". Tonight, freezing levels fall to around 4000 feet, allowing for some snow showers in the higher elevations of the western mountains. No more than a dusting is expected, outside of Western Greenbrier County, where up to an inch is possible. Quieter and drier weather returns Wednesday, with a gradual warmup through the rest of the week, with 70s and even a few 80s possible by Saturday.

03/22/2025

A 200-acre brush fire closed Virginia 311 in the Hanging Rock area between Salem and Catawba on Friday afternoon, now reopened on Saturday morning with lingering smoke. Conditions for spreading fires will be even worse by Saturday afternoon behind a passing windy cold front. Hopefully showers on Monday can dampen the surface some before more windy cold fronts next week, but dryness is again becoming a substantial problem after our soggy/icy February.

Due to warm temperatures, very gusty winds, relative humidity values less than 25%, and dry fuels, critical fire weather conditions are expected today. Check for state and local burn bans, and avoid outdoor burning today. Fires could quickly spread out of control in these conditions!

03/20/2025

Thursday's cold front looks to pass through Southwest/Southside Virginia with only a few showers ahead of it. But gusty winds behind it may stir the risk of fires spreading, bring more dust blowing in from Texas and the Desert Southwest -- and, somewhat ironically, trigger snow showers blowing over the mountains by late Thursday and early Friday. It's just a chilly speedbump in an overall springlike pattern that still looks springlike, but a bit cooler, as the season finally flips on the calendar. Watching end of month for possible late cold push, but uncertain for now. This week's Cardinal News weather column:

The calendar catches up with a springlike weather pattern with Thursday morning’s vernal equinox, just before a windy reminder that it can still get cold.

03/17/2025

Dry air pulled into much of central and western Virginia (with some Texas dust, though less than last week) by the powerful low-pressure to the northwest significantly curtailed heavy rain and storms over Southwest and Southside Virginia on Sunday, but narrow lines of storms did form near the West Virginia line and west of I-77 on Sunday afternoon, eventually redeveloping eastward into evening, dumping heavy rain on some locations repeatedly while others not far away stayed dry. Some storms, such as the one pictured over Craig County west of New Castle (photo by me), garnered severe thunderstorm warnings for localized hail or damaging winds. Other storms dumped large hail on the Greensboro, N.C., area and then tracked north-northeastward into Southside, but weakened as they did so. Considering over 30 fatalities in the states west of us from tornadoes, we can consider ourselves blessed that one factor in potential severe storms for our region -- never expected to be as bad as to our west -- went mostly awry.

This week will follow a familiar pattern with a chillier, breezy Monday in the 40s and 50s, a couple of warmer days with many 70s highs, then a cold front with showers and maybe some storms by Thursday, and colder again by Friday. There might even be snow showers in the mountains overnight Thursday into early Friday. Then temperatures moderate upward into the weekend.

It does appear that spring has sprung, but early spring always means a few brief pushes of colder air between warmups.

03/16/2025

Quick Sunday morning update 3/16/2025: A series of bands of showers are moving across Southwest and Southside Virginia this morning. So far nothing too extreme, some brief heavy rain. As the day unfolds, with the strong wind shear (winds may be quite gusty out of southeast even outside of storms) and somewhat increasing instability, additional bands such as the one now just touching the southwest corner of the state may pose at least some risk of damaging winds or an isolated tornado through the late morning into afternoon. Chances of severe weather will be greater the farther east you are in Virginia.

03/15/2025

Rough Friday night and early Saturday morning in the nation's mid-section, many report of tornadoes in Missouri, Arkansas, and adjacent states. Likely to develop into another extremely dangerous day in the Deep South with another tornado outbreak possible, as intense and shifting winds aloft align with instability and deep moisture transport.

For Virginia, the situation follows a familiar script on Sunday, with a squall line or broken line of storms expected to traverse west to east during the morning, arriving in the southwest tip near or just before sunrise and crossing the Blue Ridge around mid-morning. Wind shear aloft will be supportive of possible strong downdrafts and even rotation that could spawn a few tornadoes, but instability will be limited and will likely quell the severe risk below what it could be, with the storms' morning arrival after a prior day that isn't likely to have much sunshine. East of the Blue Ridge, instability will be greater by late morning into afternoon, and the threat of severe storms and possible tornadoes will ramp up. It does not appear likely that this will be the same caliber outbreak anywhere in Virginia that the Mississippi River Valley experienced Friday night or the Deep South and Tennessee River Valley will likely see on this Saturday, but there is a risk of some damaging storms on Sunday. Most locations will see at least brief heavy rainfall.

There may be another thin line of showers and storms by late Sunday afternoon or early Sunday evening just ahead of a cold front that will bring breezy and colder weather to our region by Monday, 50s highs, 30s lows. But that will be short-lived as highs shoot back into the 70s by Tuesday with another cold front approaching by Thursday with a showers/storms chance and then another cooldown late in the week.

(Maps below: Storm Prediction Center severe risk map nationally for Saturday and focused on Virginia for Sunday.)

03/13/2025

Almost 80 (79) at both Roanoke and Lynchburg on Wednesday, and over 80 (81) at Danville, the warmest day since Nov. 8. Two more days of sunshine (though more partial) and many 70s temperatures before a rainy, possibly stormy, weekend sets in. Temperatures will only back up slightly for a day or two before warming up again next week. This week's Cardinal News weather column takes a look back at some of the loopiness of the past week of weather in Southwest/Southside Virginia. Also remember that there is a lunar eclipse early Friday morning for those who want to stay up and see it (and hoping partial cirrus and mid-level clouds aren't too thick).

Some atmospheric and astronomical oddities occur as the weather brings out coats and shorts on the same day.

03/11/2025

This is the stretch many of you not inclined to winter have been longing for since November. 70s highs and lots of sunshine over most of Southwest/Southside Va through Friday. We'll pay for it with a rainy weekend & maybe some storms, and of course the rise of spring allergies.

High pressure along the Gulf states will bring dry air and abundant sunshine to the region today. Temperatures will be around 10F to 15F warmer than normal.

03/06/2025

Kind of a wild weather day in Southwest/Southside Virginia, with some heavy rain, thunder and lightning, gusty winds, hail, mammatus clouds, rainbows, and even some dust that blew in from Texas obscuring the mountains in a tan shroud for a while. Windy cold and mountain snow showers enter the picture overnight and early Thursday. We'll be warm again next week. ... New Cardinal Weather column in first comment. ... Photos below are of mammatus clouds and rainbows I got in southwest Roanoke County on this Wednesday.

03/04/2025

We're about to do one of those March switch-flips and the ride could be a little bumpy on Wednesday with the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms across much of Virginia. A powerhouse low pressure tracking northeast through the Great Lakes will drag a strong cold front into the region, with enough lift and instability coupled with strong atmospheric shear for thunderstorms on Wednesday. This may ultimately develop into a squall line that presses through most of western Virginia along and west of the Blue Ridge by midday and then encounters greater daytime heating and stronger shear east of the Blue Ridge and especially toward the ocean. Locally damaging winds are the main severe threat but tornadoes are also possible especially east of the Blue Ridge.

By Thursday morning, we'll be back in winter with gusty northwest winds and mountain snow showers. The cold front will usher in a few days of 40s-50s highs/20s lows type weather for Southwest/Southside Virginia, a little below normal. Some forecast models try to bring a precipitation system through by late weekend or early next week that could be mixed rain and snow, but I have high degree of skepticism about this.

Next week begins a prolonged warmup, but probably not lasting the rest of the month, as there are some signs colder air could mount a return in the latter half of March.

(Graphic: Storm Prediction Center risk zones for Wednesday)

03/01/2025

FIRE POTENTIAL TODAY, STORMS BY WEDNESDAY .. AND A STATEMENT ON WEATHER SERVICE CUTS

It may have been soggy with rain, snow and ice for a two-week stretch in mid-February, but so quickly, surface fuels are already dry again, and with some gusty winds and low humidity there is fire danger across much of Virginia on this Saturday. So much so that the National Weather Service has issued a red flag warning for fire danger for many areas east of the Blue Ridge, and is noting enhanced fire danger in other areas not covered by the warning. Please avoid starting fires on this first day of March.

Down the road: Rain and thunderstorms become likely by Wednesday with an approaching cold front pushing into mild, moist air. There is a risk of severe thunderstorms in our region – it may be a severe weather outbreak across much of the South and Southeast into the Mid-Atlantic. Details on that are still uncertain this far out. Behind that cold front, snow showers develop in the mountains by Thursday and much chillier air moves in for a few days. At this point there is no solid signal of another winter storm developing for our Southwest/Southside Virginia region before a likely prolonged warmup starting around March 11 or so.
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I often share National Weather Service graphics here, as I am today, and I would be remiss if I didn't acknowledge the personnel cuts numbering somewhere around 1,000 across NOAA, including hundreds in the National Weather Service, over the past few days. I have long held to the policy of no politics in my weather posts and comments, so I'm not interested in triggering a political debate here, and will advocate no partisan political position, as I am sure there are a range of viewpoints among my readers and supporters about these cuts and even more so the broader political landscape. But do understand that multiple weather service offices are critically understaffed presently with very active and potentially deadly weather ahead. I do not have full information on the scope of cuts at regional weather service offices such as the one at Blacksburg. I do know that a few Virginia Tech meteorology alumni lost their jobs in various forecast offices around the country. My heart goes out to everyone who lost their jobs.

One personal observation I will add here is that streamlining and reorganizing the weather service was going to happen in the near future with the rise of artificial intelligence technology and I think it would have been wiser to let professionals invested in the mission do the reorganizing in a methodical, surgical way rather than the more disruptive meat cleaver approach. Also, if the flow of National Weather Service data is more severely restricted or reduced in the future, it would hamper what I do on social media and Cardinal News and what you have supported for many years. Sometimes I differ or disagree with some elements of weather service forecasts and products, but it is freely available, taxpayer-supported data from satellites, radar, forecast models, and the output of many dedicated, hard-working human meteorologists that enables me to do what I have had the honor and privilege of doing for 20 years in the Roanoke/NRV/Southwest/Southside Virginia area. The same goes for ANY and ALL private weather forecast entities, WITHOUT EXCEPTION – The Weather Channel and Accuweather do not launch satellites or build and maintain radar stations. You can have whatever opinion you want on whether weather data collection, forecasting, computer modeling and warnings are something that government should do and taxpayers should support, and to what level, but this is where we are.

The combination of gusty winds, low fuel moisture, and low humidity will set the stage for dangerous burning conditions today and this evening! Outdoor burning is highly discouraged!