Sean Sublette, Meteorologist

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Sean Sublette, Meteorologist Owner, Sublette Weather and Consulting. Helping you weather the digital world. subletteweather.com

A soaking — but mild — rain ahead in RVA, then another cold shot follows. Timing:
10/12/2024

A soaking — but mild — rain ahead in RVA, then another cold shot follows. Timing:

Flipping the script... Richmond has now climbed above freezing for 713 consecutive days: the 4th longest stretch on reco...
07/12/2024

Flipping the script... Richmond has now climbed above freezing for 713 consecutive days: the 4th longest stretch on record.

(Of course this includes summer... but it indicates a lack of deep cold over the last couple of winters.)

This morning (Sat) was the bottom of this cold spell in RVA.Not as cold tonight, and a substantial warm up begins tomorr...
07/12/2024

This morning (Sat) was the bottom of this cold spell in RVA.
Not as cold tonight, and a substantial warm up begins tomorrow.

Tonight will make 9, RVA.Saturday night will be close... but will probably make 10.After that... above freezing for seve...
06/12/2024

Tonight will make 9, RVA.

Saturday night will be close... but will probably make 10.

After that... above freezing for several nights.

Friday morning post:Key weather messages and highlights for this weekend and next week in RVA.
06/12/2024

Friday morning post:

Key weather messages and highlights for this weekend and next week in RVA.

Yep. Cold this morning in RVA.
04/12/2024

Yep. Cold this morning in RVA.

Tuesday afternoon post.Cold holds serve for a little longer in Richmond, but a return to normalcy is in order soon. More...
03/12/2024

Tuesday afternoon post.

Cold holds serve for a little longer in Richmond, but a return to normalcy is in order soon. More in The Richmonder below:

This does not mean the rest of winter will be so cold, as there are already signs of this weather pattern giving way before the first of next week.

I mean it's cold in Virginia.But still.
03/12/2024

I mean it's cold in Virginia.
But still.

Need to clear up rumors or stories about oceans or weather? Join me Thursday at 7pm ET. I'll be talking with my friends ...
03/12/2024

Need to clear up rumors or stories about oceans or weather? Join me Thursday at 7pm ET.

I'll be talking with my friends Dave & Ellen about their new book: using humor to tackle science myths in an era of wild conspiracy theories.

Register for the live stream at:
https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register/WN_hPuxUyoLTR-uDG8sUNuvGQ #/registration

Numbers are in for RVA.2024 was the 4th warmest fall (Sep-Nov) since daily weather records began in 1897.
01/12/2024

Numbers are in for RVA.

2024 was the 4th warmest fall (Sep-Nov) since daily weather records began in 1897.

Monday morning post.It's going to rain for several hours on Thanksgiving in Richmond and then get cold — and stay that w...
25/11/2024

Monday morning post.

It's going to rain for several hours on Thanksgiving in Richmond and then get cold — and stay that way — for a week to 10 days afterwards (perhaps longer).

Easily the coldest so far this season. There are signs that December will be the first month significantly colder than normal since June 2023.

There will be a lot of fussing and whining about it.
People will snicker about climate change.

But know this: It's been so warm for so long, we've forgotten:

Normal lows in RVA in the first week in December are in the low-mid 30s.

2024 has had 45 days that were at least 10° warmer than normal.
It's only had 6 that were at least 10° colder than normal.

Below: High/Low temperature forecast (ensemble mean) for RVA over the next 2 weeks from the ECMWF.

Friday afternoon post.To be fair, 30.4° at my place in western Chesterfield County this morning, but 34° where long-term...
22/11/2024

Friday afternoon post.

To be fair, 30.4° at my place in western Chesterfield County this morning, but 34° where long-term records are kept.

After some rain on Thanksgiving & Black Friday, the first consistently cold weather settles into Richmond Saturday & following week. Expect the first freeze on one of the mornings between Nov 30 and Dec 3.

Not just the risk, but how different areas are preparing to deal with the consequences. Louisiana is largely putting its...
20/11/2024

Not just the risk, but how different areas are preparing to deal with the consequences. Louisiana is largely putting its head in the sand as the Gulf of Mexico advances. They are just not ready. At all.

Within the story are several good points about what is happening in Hampton Roads, specifically Norfolk.

Communities across the United States face extreme weather, but some are prepared to thrive. Find out how your city ranks.

"Does it really snow less than it used to?"Yeah.
19/11/2024

"Does it really snow less than it used to?"

Yeah.

Top-level thoughts about winter 2024-25 in Richmond.
19/11/2024

Top-level thoughts about winter 2024-25 in Richmond.

Have a great weekend, RVA. Plenty cool for the marathon on Saturday morning with daybreak temperatures in the mid-upper ...
15/11/2024

Have a great weekend, RVA. Plenty cool for the marathon on Saturday morning with daybreak temperatures in the mid-upper 40s.

Friday morning post.The last soaking rain like this in Richmond was just over 6 weeks ago, when 1.65" fell between Sep 3...
15/11/2024

Friday morning post.

The last soaking rain like this in Richmond was just over 6 weeks ago, when 1.65" fell between Sep 30 and Oct 1.

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Thursday afternoon 5pm. No significant changes. Storm is behaving as expected. Helene crossed into Cat 3 territory earlier this afternoon... strongest winds now 125 mph... and it comes onshore tonight. A difficult 24 hours are ahead from the Florida Big Bend through the western Carolinas. Hope all will respect the warnings. Still looking for local info? NWS Southern Region has a good portal at: https://www.weather.gov/srh/tropical

Come see us in Richmond at the end of October! Big thanks to Regarding Weather for putting this together every year... and it keeps getting better!

1pm Thursday. New Tornado Watch for Richmond and areas north to Fredericksburg, south into NC, west toward Lynchburg, and east to the Middle Peninsula and Hampton Roads. This goes until 8pm this evening. Remember, a Watch means conditions are ** increasingly favorable ** for the development of tornadoes AND individual storms/squalls with damaging straight line winds over the coming several hours. At this time, there are no active Warnings, BUT there are 2 large spiral bands of rain coming north out of eastern NC right now that very much have our attention for later this afternoon. Biggest concern in the next few hours is from Petersburg to Surry and Suffolk — south to the NC state line.

Rain outlook for Virginia from Tropical Storm Debby
Rain outlook for Virginia from Tropical Storm Debby

When and where the rain will be heaviest, and when flooding potential will be worst. Recorded 3:15pm Tuesday.

Thanks to Jennifer Narramore from Tornado Talk for joining our Across The Sky podcast this week. Reminding us that tornadoes leave deep human scars over the long term. Whether it was 5 months — or 50 years ago. Listen wherever you get your podcasts: Apple: https://tinyurl.com/yeaxdzkd Spotify: https://tinyurl.com/y5yubxp2

Quickie explainer on the aurora borealis.

What is a severe thunderstorm, anyway? And why are there different levels of warnings? And what does it mean when my phone screams at me, and the screen turns white with black text? All those answers in 90 seconds.

Thunderstorms getting an apparently slow start on the Plains this afternoon have been suppressed by a cap in the atmosphere. And quick explainer on what that means.

A quick bit about what different EF-scale tornadoes can do to your house. And a brief acknowledgement to the scale's namesake.

Thunderstorm season is here! New Across The Sky Podcast with Meteorologist and Blixtexperten and Chris Vagasky — tackling those pesky lightning myths. Get it wherever you get your podcasts: Apple: https://tinyurl.com/yeaxdzkd Spotify: https://tinyurl.com/y5yubxp2

As part of the NASA Earth Day media outreach, I talked to Dr. Kate Calvin about the new PACE satellite that launched a couple of months ago, and its importance in monitoring phytoplankton in oceans & lakes to better manage algal blooms, and particulates in the atmosphere to improve air quality forecasts. https://richmond.com/news/state-regional/weather/nasa-ocean-pace-algal-blooms-air-pollution/article_4a6e0408-0266-11ef-b48d-83ed8c2b29f2.html

For Earth Day, CNN's Bill Weir joined our Across The Sky podcast — talking more about optimistic climate change reports, the importance of story telling, and why he shifted from sports to the climate change beat. Wherever you get your podcasts: Apple: https://tinyurl.com/yeaxdzkd Spotify: https://tinyurl.com/y5yubxp2

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