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Coastal Mississippi Weather

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Coastal Mississippi Weather

Anticipated Significant weather events explained in detail by Meteorologist T Scott Barry, for coastal Mississippi.

03/25/2024

Weather forecast writings have been discontinued on this page.

The author of this page has re-located, and there is an absence of viewership.

02/12/2024

►► HAILSTORM chances will INCREASE during these overnight hours, of 2/11 - 2/12, overnight Sunday night & Monday morning in Southern Mississippi ◄◄

The combination of EXTREME *CONTRAST* in JET MAXIMA from upper levels to lower levels in the atmosphere will COME together during LATE Sunday night, EARLY Monday morning, 2/11-2/12, to PRODUCE MORE THUNDERSTORMS for which I believe will contain HAIL OCCURRENCES in Southern & Coastal Mississippi.

("What's causing this?") It is in the area of SPEED SHEAR aloft. The STARK contrast between a WEAK low level jet of 30-35 kts fused together with an ENORMOUS mid-level jet of 75 - 95 kts, the latter of which will INTENSIFY between 3 AM and 6 AM early Monday morning. This yields SPEED SHEAR of between 40 to 60 kts between these levels. An incredibly RARE vacuum aloft a WIND SPEED JET MAX up to 145 kts is indicated at 40,000 ft aiding to ventilate and keep strong updrafts going, with what should be long-lived supercells.

The amount of surface Cape required, although in modest amounts, will nonetheless be sufficient between 750 J/kg to 1,500 J/kg, adequate enough to support the sustained updrafts in the EXTREME SPEED shear of the atmosphere.

Bring this together with SHARP CONTRASTS in Precipitable water content, and this drier air on the Western periphery will only help escalate the hail potential during the overnight & early Sunday morning hours.

Forecasting models have been quite hushed & muted with this event so far with repeated iterations MISSING OUT on the convective robust initiation earlier in the night and appear to STILL be missing out on what's coming.

With 60 meter rapid height falls in just a short 9 hour period between 12 Midnight and 9 AM Monday, this should give way to strong forcing and ascent required to initiate ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS -- WITH HAIL -- throughout the night, Sunday night, 2/11 and early Monday morning, 2/12. The upper dynamics will be aided by a vorticity lobe that tracks across Southeast Texas in to Western Louisiana EARLY Monday morning, 2/12.

Those of you sensitive to HAIL striking your vehicles, you should go ahead and PLACE your vehicles under a carport or in a garage during these overnight Sunday night, 2/11 - Monday morning 2/12 hours, until after the broken clusters of T-storms push off to the East after mid-morning Monday, 2/12/2024.

Time of writing: 1040 PM, 2/11/2024, Sunday night, VALID for overnight Sunday night, 2/11 - early Monday morning, 2/12 in Southeast Louisiana and Southern Mississippi.

01/17/2024

"How COLD was it this morning, 1/17/2024?"
Here are the measured, actual LOW temperatures across Coastal Mississippi, from Wednesday morning, 1/17/2024.
► 18° Bay St. Louis, MS
► 19° Biloxi, Keesler AFB
► 20° Gulfport-Biloxi Int'l Airport
► 20° Pascagoula, MS

01/17/2024

► Weather ALERT ◄
Pipe-bursting COLDEST AIR,
Coastal Mississippi on Wed. 1/17/2024

Ready yourselves to PROTECT all UN-insulated, above-ground piping, as TONIGHT, Tuesday night & Wednesday morning, 1/16-1/17/2024 brings the COLDEST air of the season.

Forecast LOW temperatures for Wednesday morning will be in the Upper Teens (18° - 19°) for the Gulfport-Biloxi area on the coast.

Durations of FREEZING temperatures will span for about 18 hours' worth, from 5 PM Tuesday evening up to 11 AM, Wednesday morning, at which point temperatures will rise to ABOVE freezing at 11 AM, Wednesday morning, 1/17/2024.

01/15/2024

Freeze warning for Southern & Coastal Mississippi for Tuesday morning, 1/16/2024. Temperatures in Coastal Mississippi will reach the mid-to-upper 20's, staying COLD through all of Tuesday & Wednesday. Here are forecast low & high temperatures for Tuesday, 1/16/2024

01/10/2024

Here is a STORM SUMMARY of events for the Coastal Mississippi area:
FROM the 1/8-1/9/2024 BIG STORM EVENT:

► Rainfall for Gulfport, MS: 2.09"
► Rainfall for Biloxi, MS: 1.83"

► HIGH WIND GUST TO: 62 mph Gulfport & 59 mph Gulfport, 2 separate times.

► Tornado Watch & Severe T-storm & Tornado warnings were released in Southern, Coastal Mississippi, on 1/8-1/9/2024.

-- Narrative:

Peak WIND GUST in Gulfport, MS: 62 mph at 538 PM & 59 mph at 318 AM, during your Squall Line passage.

The Squall line passage for Gulfport-Biloxi and surrounding communities came BETWEEN: 240 AM to 410 AM, pre-dawn Tuesday morning, 1/9/2024.

A Tornado WATCH was hoisted for Coastal Mississippi between 840 PM and 7AM, late Monday night 1/8 - 1/9, early Tuesday morning.

A number of severe thunderstorm warnings & a couple tornado warnings were released for Southern Mississippi.

The MORE SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE STORM that I spotted on radar was at 550 PM to 650 PM on Monday evening, 1/8/2024, a storm that hit rural HANCOCK county, near Kiln, MS and darted Northeastward in to Northern Harrison County. This storm dropped 1" to 1.25" hail, and had a strong circulation. A hook echo could be seen on radar during that time period between Hancock County & Harrison County, MS yesterday evening.

The squall line did produce a PEAK WIND GUST to 59 mph, (severe criteria), at 318 AM, 1/9/2024 in Gulfport, MS, during the thunderstorm passage. Gulfport, MS also recorded a secondary PEAK wind gust at 538 PM, of 62 mph.

Attached here, shows LOCATIONS of HIGH WIND / WIND DAMAGE events (blue W's), in Southern Mississippi AND HAIL occurrences, (green H's), from the 1/8-1/9/2024 severe storm event.

01/09/2024

Tornado Warning for East Harrison County & Jackson County at 1231 AM. Here is radar at 1233 AM, 1/9/2024.

01/08/2024

548 PM, 1/8/2024, Mon. Night ~~
WEATHER ALERT -- A LARGE, verifiable HAILSTORM has entered HANCOCK COUNTY, Mississippi. Prepare for at least 1" sized hail, passing near and North of Kiln, MS. Radar image taken at 548 PM.

01/08/2024

**** SEVERE Thunderstorms, HEAVY RAINFALL, & HIGH WINDS WILL come for Coastal Mississippi, on Monday Afternoon THRU LATE MONDAY NIGHT, 1/8/2024 ****
**** HIGH WINDS GUSTING to 45-55 mph will occur throughout the region from Monday afternoon, 1/8/2024 onward through late Monday night ****
**** WIDESPREAD HEAVY THUNDERTORMS, with ACTIVE LIGHTNING will occur across SE Louisiana & Southern Mississippi, with FLOODING RAINFALL in the Baton Rouge area ****
**** EXPECT a TORNADO WATCH to be hoisted for Southeast Louisiana & Southern Mississippi starting LATE MONDAY afternoon 1/8/2024, and carrying well in to the LATE NIGHT hours ****

► I. Generalize overview.

This next storm system coming on Monday & Monday night, 1/8/2024, for Coastal Mississippi will PRESENT SEVERAL WEATHER obstacles. #1.) HEAVY RAINFALL & FLOODING, #2.) HIGH WINDS. #3.) ACTIVE thunderstorms with frequent lightning. #4.) TORNADO risk.

I do expect a Tornado Watch to be hoisted by Monday night. I do expect there will be flooding that lasts about 1 hr to 3 hrs.. I do expect ACTIVE thunderstorms containing lots of lightning & HIGH upwards to 50-55 mph Gulfport-Biloxi, from Monday afternoon THRU LATE MONDAY NIGHT.

These next sections I devote to the TIMING and MAGNITUDE of the sensible weather.

► TIMING of HIGH WIND GUSTS.

HIGH WIND GUSTS for Coastal Mississippi: 4 PM to 4 AM ---> 50 – 60 mph WIND GUSTS; HIGHEST, 7P to 11 PM, 55-60 mph. These winds on Monday night, are sufficient to cause POWER interruptions, in losing electricity. Watch for the squall line & HIGH WIND GUSTS to reach Gulfport-Biloxi, between 2 AM and 3 AM, pre-dawn Tuesday morning, 1/9/2024.

► TIMING of HEAVIEST RAINFALL

HEAVIEST RAINFALL & T-STORMS for Gulfport-Biloxi, MS: 12 Noon, Monday, thru 5 AM, pre-dawn Tuesday, 1/9. SQUALL LINE coming between 1 AM and 4 AM, pre-dawn, Tuesday morning.

► Severe Weather Parameters.

There WILL BE instances of HIGH WIND GUSTS throughout Southeast Louisiana on Monday afternoon through LATE Monday night. These HIGH WIND GUSTS will run between 40 to 55 mph, lesser Northwest, HIGHEST Southeast.

I have also determined that there IS a Tornado risk on account of the HELICIITY forecast at 300 – 500 m2/s2. The 2 MOST prominent SEVERE WEATHER RISKS are: HIGH WINDS & TORNADO RISK.

However, I feel that HEAVY RAINFALL & FLOODING is a GREATER RISK than the TORNADO RISK. For this reason, it may become NECESSARY to expect FLOOD WARNINGS, for STREET FLOODING that lasts 1 – 3 hours.

In Gulfport-Biloxi, MS BEST CAPE arrives between 12 AM to 3 AM, pre-dawn Tuesday morning, amping up to a MAXIMUM of 1,000 J/kg at the coast, and UP TO 1,700 J/kg, inland to Perry & Green counties of Southern, Mississippi. So, expect damaging wind gusts WELL INLAND from Coastal Mississippi.

The 500 mb jet will run between 70-75 kts.
The 850 mb jet will run between 60-65 kts, and accelerates to 65 to 75 kts towards 12 Midnight, which becomes apparent that the squall line should firm-up & MATURE in STRENGTH about the time it gets EAST of New Orleans, East of your Lake Pontchartrain bridge, and STRONGEST upon reaching COASTAL MISSISSIPPI counties, between 2 AM and 5 AM, pre-dawn Tuesday morning.

Other severe indices are as follows:

-4 to -5 Lifted Index.
SWEAT index: 439 to 547,
Total Totals: 52 to 54, high, supporting an isolated hail instance early Monday evening.
Helicity: 300 to 500 m2/s2 (very HIGH & supportive of tornadic circulations)
K-index: 37 HIGH, supporting THUNDERSTORMS.
Calculated WIND GUST, GFS: 54 kts
Showalter Index: -1 to -3, indicating ELEVATED instability.

► Forecast RAINFALL TOTALS:

-- For Gulfport-Biloxi, MS

The last 3 iterations of both H-Rap and NBM, have indicated rainfall totals of nearly 2 1/2” (2.50”) here for the Gulfport-Biloxi area, specifically because the scattering of showers goes ON for SO LONG, from 12 Noon thru 5 AM, Monday afternoon thru LATE, overnight Monday night. The lower-side here is WRF at only 1.60” And the Gfs & ECMWF are at 2.05” to 1.84”. I’ll lean heavily on the weighted NBM & H-Rap, and call for 2” to 4”, (2.00” to 4.00”) of rainfall here, especially given that Nam (2.49”) and the FV3 have support for this rainfall amount.

-- Message written at 11 PM, Sunday night, 1/7/2024
FOR: Coastal Mississippi
ON: Monday afternoon, 1/8/2024, thru LATE, OVERNIGHT Monday night / pre-dawn Tuesday morning 1/9/2024. Good for sharing!

01/07/2024

**** SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, HEAVY RAIN & HIGH WIND event is COMING for Coastal Mississippi for late Monday & Monday NIGHT, 1/8/2024 ****
**** HIGH WIND GUSTS of 45-55 mph starting LATE Monday afternoon, continuing through LATE MONDAY NIGHT ****
**** HEAVY RAINFALL will cause short-term flooding of streets for about 1-3 hours starting LATE Monday night ****
**** ACTIVE LIGHTNING will accompany this wind & rain event this time, on Monday & MONDAY NIGHT, 1/8/2024 ****

► I. Overview.

You can expect weather-making headlines in Southern Mississippi as I do expect a SEVERE WEATHER THREAT to unfold and take shape across Coastal Mississippi, STARTING Monday evening, continuing LATE Monday night, 1/8/2024 when heavy periods of rain & T-storms START, then I expect SEVERE WEATHER Monday NIGHT & LATE OVERNIGHT Monday night. Lighter rain showers will begin Monday morning in Coastal Mississippi from passing warm-air, moisture advection showers, in the fast-flowing ribbon of air above the surface.

I do expect you can count on a Tornado Watch to be released for Southern, Coastal Mississippi, by MONDAY NIGHT, late, 1/8/2024.

I foresee the 3 HIGHEST THREATS from weather being: #1.) HIGH WIND GUSTS. #2.) Flooding Rainfall. #3.) TORNADO RISK.

My expectation is that you will NOT have to WAIT for severe storms Monday NIGHT, in order to get the HIGH WINDS. HIGH WIND GUSTS will already be blossoming, well out AHEAD of the convective thunderstorm mass, BEGINNING LATE Monday afternoon, in between the increase of showers that come passing through. The coast should ENJOY WINDS GUSTING to 45 to 55 mph from 4 PM onward to 2 AM, pre-dawn Tuesday.

My only tempering back of the tornado threat would be on account of boundary layer stabilizing effects of SHOWERS going up EVERYWHERE during Monday afternoon, COOLING the surface temperatures. The more showers ongoing Monday afternoon & Monday evening, and the more WIDESPREAD they are BEFORE the 9 PM to 12 Midnight timing, then this will CUT DOWN on the available CAPE required for SEVERE WEATHER. (“How??”) By COOLING the surface temperature. CAPE production IS DEPENDENT upon the SURFACE temperature & boundary layer near the surface. The cooler it stays the less surface CAPE there is, but ELEVATED Cape can STILL be present. When this happens, the FREQUENCY of severe occurrences is reduced, but NOT eliminated; just reduced in lesser numbers.

I’ll circle back ‘round to this tornado threat as the high definition models come closer in time with tuning-up the event.

► II. Timing.

What about the TIMING of SEVERE STORMS??

So, the timing as the way I see it, is looking like will see a THICK BAND of HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS for Gulfport-Biloxi, – LIKELY SEVERE WEATHER between 11 PM late Monday night, and 5 AM, Tuesday morning, pre-dawn hours.

► III. Severe Weather.

CAPE, the convective available potential energy, doesn’t start to RISE UNTIL LATE Monday NIGHT. (“What’s Cape?”) For your understanding, CAPE is the necessary FOOD required by SEVERE thunderstorms in order to EXIST in PRODUCING SEVERE WEATHER. (“What if there is NO Cape?”) Then there is no severe weather. (“Does it need quantifying?”) YES!!! Just like 1 banana won’t survive your stomach the entire day, TOO LITTLE CAPE will also NOT BE ENOUGH to produce severe weather.

Every situation on HOW MUCH CAPE REQUIRED is different, depending on the warm season, cool season, and HOW MUCH WIND gets involved.

In this case we have LOTS & LOTS of WIND involved. I’m concerned there may be TOO MUCH WINDS. It is possible to have TOO MUCH WIND & NOT ENOUGH CAPE. I see around 600-900 J/kg available for the Coastal Mississippi area. This IS on the LOW side. Nonetheless, HIGH WIND GUSTS will come from ambient pressure gradient winds between 4 PM Monday afternoon & 4 AM Tuesday morning. So, there does NOT need to be thunderstorms present to RECEIVE the 45 mph to 55 mph WIND GUSTS.

Winds at 5,000 ft / 850 mb are forecast 60 – 65 kts. Then, 70-75 kts at 500 mb, nearly 19,000 ft aloft.

► IV. Thunderstorm CHANCES / SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES

Looking at the TEXT products, the % probability for THUNDERSTORMS at Gulfport show between 45% to 58% LOCK on receiving THUNDERSTORMS for late Monday night.

The SEVERE Probabilities from same text products are showing HIGH PROBABILITIES for SEVERE WEATHER:
34% to 38% for Gulfport receiving SEVERE WEATHER
I believe HIGH WIND GUSTS from AMBIENT WIND FIELDS on LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON & MONDAY NIGHT will qualify for NEAR severe wind gusts between 50-55 mph, NON-thunderstorm wind gusts.

I’m enclosing a goodly number of visuals, for you to see the display of items I have touched on here, in this writing.

Message written on: Saturday night, 1125 PM, 1/6/2024
FOR: Coastal Mississippi ON Monday & Monday NIGHT, 1/8/2024.

01/06/2024

Here's your LAST 2 HEAVY RAIN & WIND episodes in Gulfport-Biloxi, Mississippi! From 12/24/2023 & 1/5/2024, tonight, at 823 PM in 52 dbz rain at 823 PM, and peak wind gust to 38 mph.

01/05/2024

*** A Rain event has been scheduled for Coastal Mississippi for late Friday afternoon & Friday night, 1/5/2024 ***
*** A surface low crossing Southeast Louisiana will bring GUSTY winds for a short period, late afternoon thru early night ***
*** Elevated Instability will bring A few T-storms; one or two Severe WIND GUSTS ***

► I. Timing of Rain Event.

For Gulfport-Biloxi: Heaviest Rainfall comes between 4 PM – 10 PM Friday afternoon & night, 1/5.

► II. Rainfall Amounts.

For Gulfport-Biloxi, MS this is looking like a slight bit HIGHER rainfall there, I think, with 1” to 3”, (1.00” to 3.00”) is what I’m expecting here for Harrison County & surrounding coastal counties. Lending most recent support for INCREASED rainfall in Coastal, Southern Mississippi is your 2 most recent iterations of H-Rap, at 2.66” and 1.49”. Even the drier ECMWF shows 1.12”. The LOWEST forecasted was last night’s JMA & Icon at 0.53”-0.57”; earlier version, 12Z of HRap was 0.73”. HIGHEST forecasted was from Wrf, at 2.60”, but it has since shrunk its grandstanding, with the newer 00Z cycle output, with GREAT inconsistency in its past 2 iterations going from very high to very low.

With Precipitable Waters starting quite low at 0.7” to 0.9” at 6 AM Friday New Orleans to Baton Rouge, there is a steady progression UPWARD to 1.5-1.6” PW, peaking about 3 PM and then quickly going back down, progressively, such that heavy rainfall would only occur for 1 or 2 hours.

► III. Synopsis

A low pressure area will be located offshore the Central Texas coast at 7 AM, Friday morning, 1/5/2024. During Friday morning, this low will slowly move Northeastward to a position about 75 miles South of Vermilion Parish of Southwest Louisiana at 1 PM Friday, of 1007 mb strength. A broad fetch of East-Southeast winds will begin to INCREASE over Southeast Louisiana during Friday afternoon & Friday night.

Between 3 PM Friday afternoon and 9 PM Friday night the low pressure area continues Northeastward, WHILE elongating North-to-South, crawling from South-Central Louisiana, across Southeast Louisiana in to Southern Mississippi, late Friday night. In response, the Southeast WIND flow INCREASES giving momentum to the individual THUNDERSTORMS along the COASTLINE of the LOWER Southshore parishes, to the extent strong wind gusts could be encountered with 35-45 mph GUSTS in the heaviest cellular activity.

By 12 AM Midnight, late Friday night, (Pre-dawn Saturday), the surface low pressure area deepens slightly to 1005 mb located in a position, between Hattiesburg & Meridian, Mississippi. A WESTERLY surface wind shift takes over the region by that time and all rain ends everywhere LATE Friday night, near 12 Midnight.

-- Winds low-to-mid levels of Troposphere –

This is ONE are that has CAUGHT my eye.

While there is NO SURFACE instability NOR any production of Cape over land areas, what catches my eye are the rather DISTINCT, SHARP GRADIENTS in JET MAXIMA aloft, that I’m spotting at 850 mb & 500 mb.

At various times Friday afternoon, I see SUDDEN HIGH WIND maxima of 70-80 kts at 500 mb. This, coinciding with a well-defined LOW-LEVEL JET, LLJ, wind maximum that moves its way across the Southern Louisiana region Friday afternoon & night. This wind maximum at 850 mb is forecast at 65-70 kts. What’s important here is the CHANGE in SHARP GRADIENTS between these intervening layers.

I have conducted studies in the past on the SPEED SHEAR DIFFERENTIAL between these heights and convective, ELEVATED instabilities, for which SCANT surface Cape existed. Here, there is NO surface Cape, so I cannot highlight anything MUCH more than some heavy rain periods, with embedded thunder.

► IV. Severe Threat; Wind Gusts & small hail.

Looking on forecast Skew-T soundings centered on the Southshore parish, for Friday afternoon & I identify as MUCH as 40 to 45 KTS of 850-500 mb SPEED SHEAR, from both GFS and H-Rap models in the 2 PM to 4 PM time frame at the ONSET leading edge of showers & few T-storms. With the given anticipated INCREASE omega, upward vertical motion in these layers, it could be possible that some small hailstones could be generated by ELEVATED instability and this speed shear. 0-6 km shear is unusually high at 65 to 70 kts, but it’s the 850-500 mb shear I look at most.

Because this INCREDIBLY STRONG, COMPACT concentrated low-level jet of 65-70 kts is present at a TIMING during the convective showers & T-storms are IN THE AREA, in all 3 models, Nam, ECMWF, & GFS, it cannot be ignored that a FEW INSTANCES of SEVERE HIGH WIND GUSTS of 50-60 mph could briefly occur in a few spots. BEST TIMING on this is from about 2 PM – 8 PM. While the directional surface FLOW favors great helicity especially in the lowest 1 KM, the mitigating SURFACE instability should remain DIS-connect with elevated instability & elevated rotation.

Any few instances of severe will occur Friday afternoon through early Friday night, in CLOSE TIMING with Section I. given above.

► V. Thunder Potential?

This is GAINING some momentum very recently on tonight’s forecast models, the thunder potential. NAM is UP now to 59% chance for thunder, on Southshore parishes, and GFS is UP to 34%. Blend of Models is up to 42% between 6 PM and Midnight, Friday night, for Gulfport, Biloxi.

As for Coastal Mississippi, more convective potential is noted there, as well, with a RECENT UPRISING of heavier rainfall forecasted by your 18Z & 00Z iterations of your H-Rap model.

► VI Temperatures.

On the back, Western side of this departing low pressure area late Friday night, a West-Northwest wind flow will bring in drier & cooler air. Temperatures start in the upper 30s Coastal Mississippi Friday morning, to mid 40’s in New Orleans Friday morning, rising to daytime highs to the mid 60’s.

On ya’ Saturday, lows will start in the mid to upper 40’s, and rise only to 59 to 62 across the area. This is a Pacific origin airmass, so no cold, continental, polar air mass with this exiting wind shift.

Message written 1015 PM, Thursday night, 1/4/2024:
FOR: Coastal Mississippi ON Friday afternoon & night, 1/5/2024.

12/24/2023

*** RAINY Christmas Eve, Day & Night, for Coastal, Southern Mississippi, 12/24/2023 ***

*** Expect lengthy periods of steady rain on Sunday & Sunday night throughout the area, with heavy rainfall totals likely ***

► I. The Surface Weather Pattern.

An elongated low pressure will reside from Western Minnesota, Southwestward in to Western Kansas at 6 AM Sunday morning, 12/24, while High pressure is positioned across New England. The circulation about these two features will draw Southeast winds & a broad ascent of slight warm air advection across Southeast Louisiana and Coastal Mississippi on Sunday & Sunday night.

12 hours later, by 6 PM Sunday evening, 12/24, Christmas EVE, the parent low becomes established over Eastern Oklahoma. Cold high pressure over Eastern Idaho, (1036 mb), and NW Wyoming will propel a cold front through the Dakotas & Central Plains states by this time, 6 PM Sunday.

Although, a pre-frontal trough with Westerly wind shift reaches the East Texas West Louisiana border about 12 Midnight, 12/25, Christmas Eve night, this Westerly wind shift reaches in to Southeast Louisiana around daybreak Christmas Day morning. However, the COLDER air lags behind about 12-15 hours later, so let’s call a truce by giving you a nice, mild Christmas Day instead, and then we’ll furnish you the colder Christmas air the following day, Tuesday, December 26, in exchange for putting up with a rainy Christmas Eve shopping day. So, in summary: 1st: Rainy Christmas EVE DAY & NIGHT. Followed by 2nd: Nice, MILD Christmas Day, 12/25, with NO rain on Christmas DAY. Then, 3rd: COLD DAY after Christmas, 12/26.

Temperatures on your Christmas EVE shopping DAY, Sunday, 12/24, will be COOLISH, but not cold, holding in the low 60’s for most of the day. An umbrella is needed, and bring plastic bags to shield your presents from the rain. Rain will be with you throughout the day.

Temperatures on your Christmas DAY, Monday, start mild around 59 to 60°, warming in the 60’s to near 70° for your HIGH on Christmas Day. NO rain. (“Sunny day, too?”) Hey, don’t push it! You’re in recovery from Christmas Eve.

Day after Christmas, 12/26, Tuesday: COLDER, lows in the mid to upper 40’s in Southeast Louisiana; mostly staying in the 50’s during the day, briefly touch about 60°.

► II. Upper-Level Weather Map.

So, it is in the upper levels of the atmosphere that is curiously “shaking that Christmas tree” to bring you the rain on Christmas EVE DAY & Christmas EVE, night. (“How so?”)

At 9 AM Sunday morning, 12/24, a full-latitude UPPER TROUGH is aligned from the Inter-Mountain Western States of Wyoming & Colorado stretching Southward to West Texas, Southward in to the Rio Grande of Northern Mexico. This upper-trough will LIFT out EASTWARD in a negative-tilt fashion. (“What’s that mean negative tilt?”) It means a STRENGTHENING TROUGH. This will impart STRONG dynamics and LIFT, upward ascent to produce LONG RAIN DURATIONS across Southeast Louisiana & Coastal Southern Mississippi for both Sunday, daytime & Sunday nighttime, 12/24.

By 9 PM Sunday night, 12/24, the upper trough orientation will extend from Southern Oklahoma to East-Central Texas, to your Southwest Louisiana coast.

A strengthening LOW-LEVEL Jet, (“What’s that?”) A RIBBON of FAST-MOVING WIND in the boundary layer to 5,000 ft above ground level, will INCREASE during the morning & Sunday afternoon spreading from SW to Northeast across the region. This will mean WIND GUSTS of 30 to 40 mph in Southeast Louisiana, MAXING to the HIGHEST along the Mississippi Gulf coast with WIND SPEEDS INCREASING to 40-45 mph in WIND GUSTS Sunday afternoon & Sunday night. The HREF ensemble mean shows wind gusts to 40 mph along coastal Harrison & Jackson Counties from 5 PM Sunday, onward to 1 AM Monday, and the MAX ensemble shows up to 45 mph.

Similarly, your H-Rap also shows WINDS GUSTING to 40-50 mph on coastal counties of Mississippi in response to the MASS INCREASE in the low-level jet to 50 kts several thousand feet about the surface. (“Yippee! Will this bring me severe weather?”) Unfortunate in that department, but your level of CAPE is much too low to produce severe weather from convective thunderstorms; although I do expect HEAVY periods of rain, from the beefier dynamics spanning across the region.

The better, more persisting upper-divergence during the day & night looks to MISS Southeast Louisiana to the EAST, occurring over Southern Mississippi Coastal Counties. Here, I do expect HIGHER rainfall totals in Southern Mississippi, than Southeast Louisiana.

Still, GOOD RAINFALL amounts will be achieved in both regions, on account of Southeast Louisiana / Southern Mississippi being the PRIMED LEFT-EXIT region of a 250 mb jet core that will be entering the Northern Gulf of Mexico, providing UPPER DIFLUENCE & DIVERGENCE. The PEAK THRUST of this jet core is 150 kts located over Corpus Christi, TX, at 12 Midnight, late Christmas Eve, night. It’s just, the rain area seems to slip to the East too fast before the BEST rate of CHANGE in the left-exit region materializes. If it held back LONGER in the night, then HIGHER RAINFALL totals would ensue, but it seems modeled progressively enough to where we won’t see another Dec. 2nd episode on this go-around, with steady advancement of the rain shield Eastward.

► III. Rainfall Timing.

-- >> For New Orleans:
Light, measurable rain will begin BEFORE dawn, on Sunday, 12/24.
Rainy throughout the day, on Sunday, 12/24.
HEAVIEST rainfall for New Orleans: 4 PM to 11 PM, Sunday, 12/24.

-- >> For Baton Rouge:
Light, measurable rain will begin BEFORE dawn, on Sunday, 12/24.
Then, rainy in the morning; brief respite early afternoon, Sunday, 12/24.
HEAVIEST rainfall for Baton Rouge: 5 PM to 9 PM, Sunday, 12/24.

-- >> For Gulfport-Biloxi, MS
A light, trace of sprinkles will start BEFORE dawn, Sunday, 12/24.
Then, light, occasional rain during the daytime, Sunday, 12/24.
HEAVIEST rainfall for Gulfport-Biloxi: 8 PM to 1 AM, late Sunday night, 12/24.

► IV. Rainfall Amounts & Locations.

The past 3 iterations of GFS, 12Z/18Z, 00Z have been pushing Coastal Alabama with MOST rainfall, while past 2 iterations of ECMWF, 12Z/18Z, have been pushing for New Orleans/Slidell, Houma, for the MOST rainfall. This places MY AREA in Coastal Harrison County as a COMPROMISE BEST FIT between the 2. (“What’s the magnitude of most amounts?”) Between the 2? Between 4-5” from ECMWF. Between 4-6” from Gfs.

-- Flooding Rainfall, (Outside this service area) --

I do believe that Mobile, Alabama will have FLOODING on Christmas Eve, with 3” to 5” of rain there in Mobile, Alabama. Also HIGH rainfall for Mobile County, Baldwin County, Alabama, and Jackson County, Mississippi, (near Pascagoula).

► For Baton Rouge:

Total Projected Rainfall:
Model #1 -- 1.41”
Model #2 -- 0.56”
Model #3 – 0.62”
Model #4 – 0.90”
Model #5 – 0.70”
Model Avg. -- >> 0.84”

► For New Orleans:

Total Projected Rainfall:

Model #1: 1.36”
Model #2: 1.19”
Model #3: 0.54”
Model #4: 2.17”
Model #5: 1.04”
Model Avg. -- >> 1.26”

► For Gulfport-Biloxi, MS:

Total Projected Rainfall:

Model #1 -- 1.63”
Model #2 -- 0.65”
Model #3 -- 0.98”
Model #4 -- 2.66”
Model #5 -- 1.07”
Model Avg. -- >> 1.40”

My expectations, between 1” to 3” of rainfall for Coastal Mississippi Counties of Hancock & Harrison Counties. Then, 2” to 4” of rainfall (heavier), in Jackson County, Mississippi; possible flooding there; HIGHER further EAST in to Mobile & Baldwin Counties, Alabama.

For New Orleans, I expect 1” to 3” of rainfall there.

For Baton Rouge, I expect lesser amounts of 1/2" to 1 1/2", (0.50” to 1.50”).

I do expect Coastal Mississippi to receive HEAVY rainfall amounts, with possible FLOODING in Jackson County, Mississippi, to as far West as Harrison County Mississippi. The rainfall amounts will go UPWARD in to Mobile County & Baldwin Counties, Alabama for even HIGHER totals, supposing 3” to 5” there.

► V. T. Scott’s thoughts.

My thinking is that with the Precipitable Water mapping being as progressive as it is peaking at 1.70” Sun. Aftn & evening in SE Louisiana, then advancing quickly Eastward in to Coastal Ms. Sunday night, that there shouldn’t be that big risk of flooding once seen back on the Dec. 2nd event, earlier this month. PW’s of 1.70” aren’t as high as it could be. Simulated radar shows a progression to the big band of heaviest rainfall, as well, and NOT stalling out. While there will be what I identify as a PERSISTENT upper divergence, with 250 mb winds from South to North over Central MS, and from West-Southwest to East-Northeast across the Northern Gulf, this creates diverging air (difluence aloft), and confluence, convergence at the surface which will promote a longer lived rain event, but simulations by BOTH the Hi-Def. models are NOT that impressive with QPF output. While winds will be gustier further East along the Coast of Mississippi, once the rain sets in, the rain has a calming effect in disrupting the ambient wind fields, so 30-40 mph in GUSTS should cover it, most places.

Respectable PVA (CVA) at the mid-levels looks to push in to SW Louisiana between the 6 PM – 9 PM time frame on Sunday night, in the negative-tilt trough. I see this as ENHANCING a THUNDER threat, even in spite of ABSENT Cape, so don’t be surprised to hear thunder and see a few flashes of lightning on Christmas Eve night. The Nam & Gfs thunder threat is quite low at between 20%-40%. So, too is the ECMWF & H-Rap lightning flash density forecast; however the newer NBM goes upwards to the 42% to 53% bracket for Sunday night, in advance of an 18-25X unit cycle vorticity lobe swinging through the trough. I’m feeling that the H-Rap & WRF are too low with rain amounts UNDER 1”, but the progressive nature of the system, should keep most areas under 2”.

-- Message written at 110 AM, Pre-Dawn, Sunday morning, 12/24/2023, FOR: Sunday & Sunday night, 12/24/2023 in Southeast Louisiana & Coastal Mississippi.

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