United States Storm Intercepters

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0139 PM CST Thu Jan 11 2024 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ARKLATEX REGION... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes, damaging wind gusts, and large hail are possible tonight over the Arklatex region, and nearby parts of southeastern Oklahoma, east Texas, Arkansas, and western/northern Louisiana. ...20Z Update... ...East TX and Arklatex into the Ozark Plateau tonight... Low-level moisture continues to advect northward across East TX, with low 60s dewpoints now reaching as far north as Rusk County TX. That matches fairly well with the last RAP guidance, which then brings 60s dewpoints into the TXK vicinity around 03Z. Elevated thunderstorm development is still anticipated tonight (00Z-03Z) from the Arklatex into nearby central AR within the strong warm-air advection preceding the shortwave current moving through the Four Corners region. Strong deep-layer vertical shear should support rotating updrafts and some potential for large hail. As mentioned in the previous outlook, upper 50s to low 60s dewpoints might be sufficient for surface-based supercells capable of all hazards, including tornadoes. Additional development is still expected to the west of this earlier, predominantly elevated activity as the strong mid-level jet progresses over the warm sector and a cold front surges westward. Storms are then expected to form along/ahead of this cold front from eastern OK int northeast TX and track rapidly east-northeastward across the ENH area. Primary storm mode will likely be bowing line segments, with an attendant threat for strong to significant gusts and tornadoes, particularly across east-central/southeast AR early Friday morning. Some storm development is also possible close to the primary surface low a

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1205 AM CST Thu Jan 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO FRIDAY EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA...MUCH OF CENTRAL GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA INTO SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms, with potential to produce high winds and a few strong tornadoes, are possible across parts of the Southeast Friday through Friday evening. ...Discussion... There appears little substantive change in the latest available ECENS/ECMWF and GEFS concerning the forecast evolution for this period. Strong surface cyclogenesis is likely to proceed Friday across the Mississippi Valley through Atlantic Seaboard, as a vigorous supporting short wave trough pivots northeast of the southern Great Plains. It still appears that the center of the growing cyclone will undergo a period of rapid deepening across the lower Ohio Valley during the day, including minimum surface pressures falling on the order of 15-20 mb in a 12 hour period, though the 00Z NAM/03Z RAP take a track to the northwest of the other guidance into the Great Lakes region through late Friday night. Regardless, associated strengthening of deep-layer wind fields probably will including a developing swath of 90-120+ kt cyclonic/southwesterly flow at 500 mb across the lower Mississippi Valley, through portions of the Northeast and Mid Atlantic by the end of the period. In the 850-700 mb layer, 50-90 kt south to southwesterly flow is generally forecast to overspread the inland advancing warm sector. There remains some uncertainty concerning just how expansive of an unstable warm sector may develop, with perhaps low-level warming and moistening becoming sufficient, in the presence of strong forcing for ascent, for weak boundary-layer desta

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1158 PM CST Wed Jan 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE ARK-LA-TEX... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms, associated with tornadoes, wind damage and isolated large hail, are likely to develop across parts of the Ark-La-Tex this evening into the overnight. A severe threat is also expected to develop further south across parts of east Texas and Louisiana. ...Ark-La-Tex... An impressive upper-level system will translate quickly eastward through the Desert Southwest today, reaching the southern Plains this evening. Within the base of the trough, a 100 to 120 knot mid-level jet will move through west Texas this evening, as the nose of the jet overspreads the Ark-La-Tex. Ahead of the system, moisture will return northward across east Texas and Louisiana, with the nose of the moist sector reaching southern Arkansas by early evening. In response, a pocket of instability is forecast to develop across southeast Oklahoma, southwest Arkansas and northeast Texas, where convective initiation is expected during the mid evening. Thunderstorms are likely to rapidly increase in coverage during the late evening. Most hi-resolution models develop a line of strong to severe storms and move the line slowly eastward across southwest Arkansas and far northeast Texas during the early overnight period. As lift and shear increase due to the approach the mid-level jet, conditions are expected to become favorable for severe storms. Model forecast soundings across the Ark-La-Tex by 06Z have surface dewpoints near 60 F as far north as the Louisiana and Arkansas state line. Even so, MLCAPE should reach the 500 to 1000 J/kg range at the northern edge of the moist sector by late evening. Very strong lift associated with the exit region of the mid-level jet combined

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CST Wed Jan 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...MUCH OF CENTRAL GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA INTO SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms, with potential to produce high winds and a few strong tornadoes, are possible across parts of the Southeast Friday through Friday evening. ...Discussion... Models continue to indicate that strong cyclogenesis will proceed Friday across the Mississippi Valley through Atlantic Seaboard, as a vigorous supporting short wave trough pivots northeast of the southern Great Plains. It still appears that the center of the growing cyclone will undergo a period of very rapid deepening across the lower Ohio Valley during the day, perhaps with minimum surface pressures falling in excess of 15 mb in 12 hours, before continuing to deepen while migrating northeastward into the lower Great Lakes region by late Friday night. Associated strengthening of deep-layer wind fields is forecast to include a developing swath of 90-120+ kt southwesterly flow at 500 mb across the lower Mississippi Valley through portions of the Northeast and Mid Atlantic by the end of the period. In the 850-700 mb layer, 50-90 kt south to southwesterly flow is generally forecast to overspread the inland advancing warm sector. There remains some uncertainty just how expansive of an unstable warm sector may develop, with perhaps low-level warming and moistening becoming sufficient for weak boundary-layer destabilization northeast of the lower Mississippi Valley through parts of the Tennessee and lower Ohio Valleys during the day. More substantive low-level moistening seems probable off the north central/northeastern Gulf of Mexico, into the

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 PM CST Tue Jan 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN TEXAS...WESTERN/SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA INTO WESTERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorm development is possible Thursday night across parts of the southeastern Great Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley, where storms may increasingly pose a risk for severe hail, wind and tornadoes prior to daybreak Friday. ...Synopsis... To the east of persistent amplified mid/upper ridging within the split flow across the mid-latitude eastern Pacific, one notable short wave impulse of northern Canadian Arctic origins is forecast to dig southeast of the Canadian Rockies and Prairies during this period. Models generally indicate that it will at least begin to progress across the international border into the northern U.S. intermountain region and Rockies by late Thursday night, but there is sizable spread still evident concerning this evolution. This in turn appears to impact the model depiction of a significant downstream short wave impulse (of northern mid-latitude Pacific origins), particularly by late Thursday night, after digging southeast of the Great Basin toward the Southwestern international border area. Guidance, still generally indicates that it will begin pivoting to a negative tilt and accelerate through the southern Great Plains, but latest model runs, including the NAM and the Rapid Refresh, suggest that the impulse may bottom out and take a more northward track than what the GEFS and ECENS output have been indicating that past several days. Regardless, strong mid/upper forcing for ascent is forecast to contribute to a deepening surface troughing across the southern Great Plains through the Ozark Plateau and lower M

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 8 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 710 PM EST Tue Jan 9 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Central and south Florida Coastal Waters * Effective this Tuesday evening from 710 PM until 1100 PM EST. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...A squall line will persist for a few more hours while moving southeastward from central into south Florida. The storm environment will remain favorable for isolated damaging winds and possibly a couple of tornadoes with embedded circulations. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles east southeast of Naples FL to 100 miles northeast of Fort Myers FL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings.

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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 4 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 705 AM EST Tue Jan 9 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southeastern Alabama Northern Florida and central/eastern Florida Panhandle Southern Georgia Coastal Waters * Effective this Tuesday morning and afternoon from 705 AM until 200 PM EST. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...A severe squall line, with embedded potentially tornadic circulations and damaging nontornadic winds, will sweep eastward across the watch area through the remainder of the morning, into early afternoon. A few supercells also are possible ahead of the line with a threat for tornadoes (some strong), severe gusts and isolated hail. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 85 statute miles north and south of a line from 10 miles south southwest of Crestview FL to 55 miles east northeast of Valdosta GA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CST Tue Jan 09 2024 Valid 121200Z - 171200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range model output (including the ECENS/GEFS and ECMWF/GFS) continues to indicate that rapid, strong cyclogenesis will proceed Friday across the Mississippi Valley through Atlantic Seaboard, as a vigorous short wave impulse pivots northeast of the southern Great Plains. As the center of the growing cyclone tracks from Arkansas into and through the lower Ohio Valley during the day Friday, lowest surface pressures may fall as much as 15-20 mb in 12 hours. Latest guidance is more suggestive that the stronger mid/level cooling might tend to shift north of the moistening warm sector overspreading the central into eastern Gulf Coast states by midday. While warm mid/upper layers could potentially be mitigating to destabilization and severe weather potential during the afternoon through evening across Alabama and Georgia into the Carolinas, this may be compensated for by a continued increase in low-level moisture. Increased inhibition and weaker mid/upper support might actually be more conducive to discrete supercell development in the presence of intense wind fields (including 50-80+ kts in the 850-700 mb layer) and low-level shear. And models suggest that a dryline structure might develop ahead of the cold front trailing the cyclone as it progresses eastward. Due to lingering uncertainties severe weather probabilities are being maintained at 15 percent across the eastern Gulf into southern Atlantic Coast states vicinity. However, it is still possible that severe weather probabilities will need to be increased in later outlooks for this period. Conditionally the environment appears potentially conducive to strong tornadoes and high convective wind gusts. Following diminishing convective potential over the coming weekend,

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 AM CST Tue Jan 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN TEXAS...MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND WESTERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorm development is possible Thursday night across parts of central and eastern Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley, where storms may increasingly pose a risk for severe hail, wind and tornadoes prior to daybreak Friday. ...Discussion... To the east of persistent amplified mid/upper ridging within the split flow across the mid-latitude eastern Pacific, one notable short wave impulse of northern Canadian Arctic origins is forecast to dig southeast of the Canadian Rockies, into the northern U.S. intermountain region and Rockies by late Thursday night. Downstream of this perturbation, another short wave trough, of northern mid-latitude Pacific origins, is forecast to dig through the Southwestern international border area, before rapidly pivoting east of the southern Rockies/northern Mexican Plateau through the southern Great Plains by the end of the period. As stronger mid/upper forcing for ascent associated with the lead perturbation approaches the Ark-La-Tex vicinity, it still appears that a surface low may begin to consolidate within deepening surface troughing across the southern Great Plains into lower Mississippi Valley. Timing of the onset of more rapid deepening is becoming a bit more unclear, but still seems probable prior to 12Z Friday. Once this occurs, a more substantive inland influx of low-level moisture, off a still modifying boundary-layer over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico, is expected to contribute to increasing near-surface or surface-based destabilization. This appears likely to be aided by steepening lapse rates a

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 PM CST Mon Jan 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA...THE SOUTHERN HALF OF GEORGIA...AND ROUGHLY THE EASTERN HALVES OF THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected impact much of the eastern Gulf and southern Atlantic Coast states today, accompanied by a risk for very strong and damaging wind gusts and a few strong tornadoes. ...East/Southeast... A strong/deepening upper low is forecast to shift east-northeastward across the Midwest/Ohio Valley area today, accompanied by a broad zone of intense deep-layer cyclonic flow that will surrounding this system. An associated/occluded surface low will shift northeastward across the Midwest toward the Upper Great Lakes, while a strong cold front expected to be crossing the Tennessee Valley/central Gulf Coast region moves quickly eastward across the East Coast States through afternoon/evening. Along the front, within an amply unstable warm sector, an organized band of strong/locally severe storms is forecast to be ongoing across the Alabama vicinity at the start of the period. Given highly favorable deep-layer shear, owing to winds increasing and veering with height through the troposphere, wind gusts locally capable of producing damage, and the possibility of strong tornadoes, will exist. Additionally, any pre-frontal, cellular storms which may evolve with time would likely become supercells, posing particular risk for a strong tornado. With time, as the line of storms advances eastward across Georgia and the Florida Panhandle through midday, some increase in low-level theta-e advection off the Gulf Stream into the Carolinas is expected. This will act to partially offset the wide

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 2 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 430 PM CST Mon Jan 8 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southeast Louisiana Coastal Mississippi Coastal Waters * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 430 PM until 900 PM CST. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms, some with supercell structures, will continue to spread northeastward through late evening. A couple of tornadoes, isolated large hail up to 1.5 inches in diameter and isolated damaging gusts will all be possible. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles north and south of a line from 70 miles west northwest of Houma LA to 35 miles south southeast of Gulfport MS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings.

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 135 PM CST Mon Jan 8 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southwest Louisiana Southeast Texas Coastal Waters * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 135 PM until 900 PM CST. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to strengthen this afternoon and evening while posing a threat for tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail. A strong tornado appears possible given a rather favorable environment. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles north and south of a line from 65 miles west northwest of Houston TX to 15 miles east southeast of Lafayette LA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings.

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CST Mon Jan 08 2024 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA/MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA...AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of strong/damaging wind gusts and tornadoes are expected across the Gulf Coast States this afternoon through early Tuesday morning, spanning from southeast Texas and southern Louisiana across southern Mississippi, southern Alabama to the western Florida Panhandle. Strong tornadoes are possible. ...Synopsis... A powerful upper cyclone over the southern Plains this morning will eject east-northeastward today, eventually reaching the lower/mid MS Valley by early Tuesday morning. A very strong mid-level jet (around 90-110 kt) associated with this cyclone will translate eastward across TX and the lower MS Valley through tonight. Primary surface low over the TX Panhandle this morning is expected to develop across OK today, and it should reach the mid MS Valley by the end of the period. A secondary surface low should develop across coastal/southeast TX today, and into LA and central MS by late this evening. Low-level mass response and warm/moist advection is already occurring in earnest across coastal TX. This trend is forecast to continue as a surface warm front lifts northward across coastal portions of LA/MS/AL and the FL Panhandle this evening through tonight. A cold front attendant to the secondary surface low will continue to sweep quickly eastward across TX and the lower MS Valley through the period. ...North/Central Texas into ArkLaTex today... A line of elevated convection is ongoing this morning across parts of north/central TX along the cold front. This activity should tend to remain elevated in the short term, but some threat for occasiona

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 AM CST Mon Jan 08 2024 Valid 111200Z - 161200Z ...DISCUSSION... The latest medium-range guidance (including the ECENS/GEFS and ECMWF/GFS) appear similar with the depiction of the evolving pattern late this week. Of particular note, one vigorous short wave impulse (emanating from the northern mid-latitude Pacific, before digging inland across the Pacific coast into the Great Basin by early Thursday) is forecast to continue digging across the southern Rockies and Southwestern international border vicinity during the day Thursday, before rapidly pivoting across the southern Great Plains/lower Mississippi Valley through the upper Ohio Valley/lower Great Lakes by 12Z Saturday. As it does, there appears increasing consensus that it will support strong surface cyclogenesis across the Mid South through lower Great Lakes vicinity late Thursday night through Friday evening. Latest guidance indicates that this will be accompanied by sufficient low-level moisture return off the Gulf of Mexico to support a destabilizing warm sector across parts of eastern Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley late Thursday through Thursday night, aided by strengthening mid/upper forcing for ascent. Coupled with intensifying wind fields and shear, this is expected to support the initiation of severe thunderstorm development, which seems likely to organize and be maintained within the swath of mid/upper support overspreading much of the Gulf through southern Atlantic Coast states by Friday night. This may be accompanied by a swath of strong, damaging winds and the risk for tornadoes.

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 AM CST Mon Jan 08 2024 Valid 111200Z - 161200Z ...DISCUSSION... The latest medium-range guidance (including the ECENS/GEFS and ECMWF/GFS) appear similar with the depiction of the evolving pattern late this week. Of particular note, one vigorous short wave impulse (emanating from the northern mid-latitude Pacific, before digging inland across the Pacific coast into the Great Basin by early Thursday) is forecast to continue digging across the southern Rockies and Southwestern international border vicinity during the day Thursday, before rapidly pivoting across the southern Great Plains/lower Mississippi Valley through the upper Ohio Valley/lower Great Lakes by 12Z Saturday. As it does, there appears increasing consensus that it will support strong surface cyclogenesis across the Mid South through lower Great Lakes vicinity late Thursday night through Friday evening. Latest guidance indicates that this will be accompanied by sufficient low-level moisture return off the Gulf of Mexico to support a destabilizing warm sector across parts of eastern Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley late Thursday through Thursday night, aided by strengthening mid/upper forcing for ascent. Coupled with intensifying wind fields and shear, this is expected to support the initiation of severe thunderstorm development, which seems likely to organize and be maintained within the swath of mid/upper support overspreading much of the Gulf through southern Atlantic Coast states by Friday night. This may be accompanied by a swath of strong, damaging winds and the risk for tornadoes.

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1146 PM CST Sun Jan 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA...NORTHERN FLORIDA...PARTS OF THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT AND THE CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms may impact much of the eastern Gulf and southern Atlantic Coast states Tuesday, accompanied by a risk for very strong and damaging wind gusts and a few strong tornadoes. ...Synopsis... Within the prevailing split flow across the eastern mid-latitude Pacific, it still appears that mid/upper ridging will undergo amplification through this period. As this occurs, mid-level troughing is forecast to begin to dig across Pacific Northwest, and a strong downstream trough, initially approaching the Mississippi Valley, likely will remain progressive. Strong cyclogenesis appears likely to proceed from the Mississippi Valley through much of the eastern U.S., with the center of the primary surface cyclone generally forecast to track from east central Missouri through lower Michigan by late Tuesday night. Models indicate that the mid/upper trough axis will take on a negative tilt while pivoting northeast of the Mississippi Valley, with difluent flow aloft overspreading much of the Southeast. Further intensification of lower/mid-tropospheric wind fields may include 50-90+ kt southerly to southwesterly flow in the 850-700 mb layer overspreading much of the eastern Gulf/southern Atlantic Coast region during the day Tuesday, accompanied by a moistening warm sector. ...Southeast... Associated with the strong synoptic forcing for ascent, a strong to severe squall line, perhaps closely preceded by discrete supercell development, may be ongoing ahead of an eastward surging cold front across parts of central/southern Alabama into the north central G

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1146 PM CST Sun Jan 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA...NORTHERN FLORIDA...PARTS OF THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT AND THE CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms may impact much of the eastern Gulf and southern Atlantic Coast states Tuesday, accompanied by a risk for very strong and damaging wind gusts and a few strong tornadoes. ...Synopsis... Within the prevailing split flow across the eastern mid-latitude Pacific, it still appears that mid/upper ridging will undergo amplification through this period. As this occurs, mid-level troughing is forecast to begin to dig across Pacific Northwest, and a strong downstream trough, initially approaching the Mississippi Valley, likely will remain progressive. Strong cyclogenesis appears likely to proceed from the Mississippi Valley through much of the eastern U.S., with the center of the primary surface cyclone generally forecast to track from east central Missouri through lower Michigan by late Tuesday night. Models indicate that the mid/upper trough axis will take on a negative tilt while pivoting northeast of the Mississippi Valley, with difluent flow aloft overspreading much of the Southeast. Further intensification of lower/mid-tropospheric wind fields may include 50-90+ kt southerly to southwesterly flow in the 850-700 mb layer overspreading much of the eastern Gulf/southern Atlantic Coast region during the day Tuesday, accompanied by a moistening warm sector. ...Southeast... Associated with the strong synoptic forcing for ascent, a strong to severe squall line, perhaps closely preceded by discrete supercell development, may be ongoing ahead of an eastward surging cold front across parts of central/southern Alabama into the north central G

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1154 PM CST Sun Jan 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of strong wind gusts and tornadoes are expected from southeast Texas across the central Gulf Coast this afternoon into early Tuesday morning. Greatest severe potential is anticipated overnight from southeast Louisiana across southern Mississippi and southern Alabama, and into the western Florida Panhandle. ...Synopsis... A potent, positive-tilt mid-level shortwave centered over the Four Corners will undergo significant amplification as it emerges over the Southern Plains through the forecast period. South of the primary vort max, a 90-100 kt H5 jet streak will round the base of the trough and move quickly eastward, intensifying further, as it overspreads the mid-MS valley into early Tuesday. Coincident with the robust forcing aloft, a lee cyclone over northeast NM will quickly deepen below 1000 mb as it tracks eastward over the TX Panhandle and OK. South of the low, strong low-level mass response will rapidly advect a modifying Gulf air mass northward into portions of central/southeast TX and eventually across the central Gulf Coast. Strong low-level warm advection ahead of the intensifying upper-level and surface cyclone will support numerous showers and thunderstorms across the southern Plains and lower MS Valley today into early morning Tuesday. Strong kinematics and sufficient buoyancy within the onshore warm sector will support organized storms capable of all hazards, including a couple strong tornadoes. ...North TX into the ArkLaTex... Showers and embedded thunderstorms should be ongoing early this morning within a strong low-level warm advection regime ahead of the surface l