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Campaign Deep Dive

Campaign Deep Dive takes an in depth look at the most competitive campaigns from around the country

17/11/2022

Breaking News: The New York Times, Politico and Real Clear Politics all call control of the US House of Representatives for Republicans!

All three major outlets have declared they have reached 218 seats which gives them the majority, Republicans are also currently leading in 3 other races (CA 3, CA 22 and CO 3).

14/11/2022

Cook Political Report is now saying a Republican takeover of the US House is extremely likely as more results come in

10/11/2022

Pro Life Republican Governors won big on Tuesday!

08/11/2022

30. Texas’ 34th Congressional District Mayra Flores vs. Vincente Gonzalez

Texas’ 34th District got national attention earlier this year when 36 year old republican and political newcomer Mayra Flores landed an upset victory in a close special election in a heavily Hispanic border district. This district stretches along the Texas Mexico border but then goes up along the Gulf coast and approaches near Corpus Christi from the south. The district Flores won in the upset this summer is a little more favorable than the map she is running in now. The old district was a Biden +4 and the new district is a Biden +15.4 point advantage however there are seats with as much as a 20 point advantage to Biden where republicans are currently competitive. The non white population of TX 34 is an astonishing 92.1% with the vast majority of that population being Hispanic.

For the GOP the incumbent candidate is the very impressive Mayra Flores, who was born in Mexico and moved here as a little girl. She is from the area and has worked as a respiratory therapist. She has four kids with her husband who is a border patrol agent. She was previously a democrat until shortly after Obama became president when she switched parties because of her pro life views. She often mentions how she was raised to put God and Family first.

Flores speaks fluent Spanish and uses this advantage to take her message directly to the Hispanic community. She notes how the democrats have taken for granted their heavy latino support over the years and that their extreme views are out of step with what they believe “ the district is pro family, pro life and Pro God.” She says Hispanics are conservative, but fall into neither far left or far right label. She tries to focus on the kitchen table issues that effect voters most, like the economy, border security and family values.

She has been the subject of racist attacks and has also been accused of being a Q anon supporter after using their hashtags, but explains that she was merely trying to reach their voters in a social media post and does not agree with their views. In interviews Flores does an excellent job speaking in a down to earth manner, and while she is conservative she doesn’t come off as an ideologue.

Flores is facing another member of congress in this race Vincente Gonzalez who has been in office since 2017. The new district map does bring some of Gonzalez’ old district with him, fully 200,000 residents currently have him as their congressman. Prior to being a congressman, Gonzalez was a lawyer (primarily a civil litigator) a fact Flores has attacked him on for “defending criminals” although Cong. Gonzalez notes that criminal defense was a very small part of his practice.

On the issues Gonzalez tries to sound moderate in tone, and on some issues does vote with the GOP such as in opposing an assault weapons ban. He is however for red flag laws to prohibit gun purchases for domestic violence abusers. He talks about the border as a major issue but downplays it in a way that Flores certainly does not. When asked about potential environmental issues for Space X (who has a HQ in the district) he mentioned making sure the company was doing everything right but one could tell the hard left environmentalism that has infected so much of his party, at the very least he lacks the enthusiasm for.

As a congressman he notes bringing $6 billion back to the district as one of the things he is proudest of. On abortion he sounds like a democrat from the 1990s focusing on women being forced to carry a child conceived in r**e and noting that it should be “safe, legal and rare.” According to the almanac of American Politics his social issue voting record is 100% liberal on economic issues he is more mixed. He has voted with Joe Biden 97.3% of the time.

On the financial side of this race, Flores and Gonzalez are at near parity in both the spend battle and the cash on hand battle. In terms of cash on hand Gonzalez has $820k in the bank to Mayra Flores’ $799k. In the spend battle Gonzalez has a slight edge since the beginning of the year spending $3.3 million to Flores’ $2.495 million.

This race has been rated as a tossup by Fox News, the Cook Political report and by Real Clear Politics. FiveThirtyEight gives Gonzalez the narrowest edge possible in their models of 51 of 100 to Flores 49 of 100. There has been one poll in the race from early August where Gonzales had a 4 point lead 47-43 but was well short of the 49 or 50 percent that would give him some protection against independents breaking for Flores. Hopefully Flores can pull off yet another upset win this year.

08/11/2022

California’s 27th Congressional District Mike Garcia vs. Christy Smith

Our next race used to be home to the beautiful Simi Valley and the Reagan library but redistricting robbed the new district of that gem. The new 27th now starts just west of the I-5 freeway, takes in Santa Clarita then juts east inland encompassing Lancaster, Palmdale and Acton as well as several other smaller towns. The district boasts more than its share of celebrities being just north of LA including Donald Glover who grew up near Edwards Air Force Base close to Lancaster and John Wayne who lived in Santa Clarita.

This race is a rematch of the contest in 2020 between Garcia and Smith. Garcia won that matchup by an astonishingly narrow 333 votes. In that contest Mike Garcia overperformed Trump in the district by 6 points which is well above the national average, Biden carried the district by 10.3 points.

The GOP candidate Mike Garcia in this race has quite a resume, he is a first generation American whose stepfather was an LA cop. He got the appointment as a young man to the Naval Academy and served as a “one of the most talented pilots in the Navy” according to the almanac of American Politics, flying more than 30 missions in some of the toughest spots in Iraq including Baghdad and Fallujah. Since then he has gone into business and has served as a Vice President at Raytheon, but refreshingly notes that titles, don’t matter, which is frankly something rate to see among elected officials.

He seems to be the rare conservative who knows why he believes what he believes and can articulate it elegantly. While solidly conservative he does note that we need to engage with those with whom we disagree. On the issues his focus seems to be correct hammering the kitchen table issues voters care most about ie lower taxes, lower inflation, safer communities. He also hammers China on their IP theft and the threat they pose to the global order with their saber rattling on Taiwan.

The democrat in the race is State Assemblywoman Christy Smith, who while a standard democrat does appear to be a talented candidate. She served 4 years in the state legislature and another 9 on a school board she also used to work for the Department of Education. She seems to do her homework and when speaking to groups does a decent job tailoring her message to whom she is speaking. Her ads are pretty decent and she isn’t afraid to go hard against Mike Garcia.

Ideologically, there is little evidence that she ever departs from party orthodoxy. On abortion she labels Garcia as “not for Women, not for us” She focuses on Jan 6, calls climate change an emergency. She stresses inequality and believes we can prevent poverty and homelessness. During 2020 she was in favor of the invasive contact tracing strategy. But like a lot of other democrats in competitive seats she tries studiously to sound moderate “things I fight for are about people not party” and calls for putting “our community first to get things done.” She does however excel at making the conversation about who she is talking to and not about herself, a rare trait she also seems fairly personable.

While Smith has sought to hit Garcia with the standard “extreme” label on abortion, Garcia has been unafraid to hit back. Attacking her for laying off teachers and voting to increase her own pay, calling her a career politician and calling her out for being in favor of cutting funding for the police.

On the fundraising side of the ledger this is the rare race where the republican is clearly outclassing his rival, Garcia has spent $4.66 million since January compared to Smith’s $2.5 million spend. In the cash on hand battle Garcia also holds a decided advantage with $1.88 million to Smith’s $719k. Fox News and the Cook Political Report have this race as a tossup, and Real Clear has it as Leans Republican. Polling in this race has been somewhat all over the place with two polls having Smith up 6 points and 2 points respectively and another having Garcia leading by 2 points. Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight gives Mike Garcia the advantage in his statistical models with Garcia winning in 59 of 100 models and Christy Smith only wins in 41 of 100.

Garcia shouldn’t take his narrow win for granted, and assume the advantages will necessarily carry the day, Smith seems to be a formidable campaigner and does come off as personable. Hopefully Mike Garcia can build on his advantages and keep this seat Red, in a state that doesn’t have enough of it.

08/11/2022

Nevada’s 4th Congressional District Steven Horsford v. Sam Peters

Redistricting in Nevada is a process that is controlled by democrats, despite that fact, all of the democratically controlled seats in the state are now competitive, this lends real credence to the idea of coalitional demographic shifts benefiting republicans. If a red shift among Hispanics weren’t real these seats wouldn’t be competitive. According to Politico, the 4th District’s non-white population in the remap is 59.7%, and the percentage with bachelors degrees in the district is only 18%. If one were citing the first statistic on minority population ten years ago that would all but have rendered a GOP win an impossibility sadly. No longer! The second stat is also decidedly favorable to the GOP as college educated voters have become increasingly democratic in the same time span.

To the geography of the district itself it encompasses most of the land mass of the southern half of Nevada beginning in the northern neighborhoods of Las Vegas and continuing all the way to within commuting distance of Reno. Most of the district’s population derives from Clark County, the home of Las Vegas, but the district also includes such notable places as Area 51 and Yucca Mountain whose controversies have been noted in other Congressional races.

The democrat incumbent here is Steven Horsford, Horsford is no stranger to politics having held office with nearly no interruption since 2004. Serving in the Nevada Senate for 8 years before getting elected to congress for only one term in 2012 and then getting the seat back in 2018 in the wave dem year. In 2020 he underperformed Biden by just under 6,000 voted both netting 51%. In that contest he had the advantage of a libertarian candidate drawing away 2% from his GOP challenger.

Horsford is a standard democrat in ideology, voting 100% of the time with Biden as well as 100% liberal economic and social voting records from the Almanac of American Politics. He is also a member of the house progressive caucus, is in favor or reparations and voted against security for Supreme Court justices after the Dobbs decision was leaked. As recently as a few weeks ago in a debate he rather astonishingly stated that the pandemic was still going on after even Biden had thrown in the towel on that narrative. Horsford seems to buy into economic populism as well lamenting corporate greed.

He has a compelling personal story, he is a Las Vegas native whose mother had him when she was 17, she also struggled with alcohol and drug problems. His father was killed when he was only 19 years old during a robbery at a store where he worked. Horsford had to drop out of college to support his family as a result. Later, he ran a culinary training academy for 10 years, which trained workers for jobs on the strip.

Horsford does a good job tailoring his message to his audience and in a debate with Sam Peters recently he did a better job of keeping his cool than his GOP rival. Although the debate was marked by nastiness all around and there seemed to be no good will between the candidates.

Sam Peters is the GOP candidate for this seat, Peters has an impressive resume serving for 20 years in the military, joining right out of High School, including in Afghanistan. He received a bronze star one of the higher medals for gallantry during his time of service. Peters also got to work on budgeting for the defense department at the pentagon. After serving he started his own insurance business and got his masters in finance.

On abortion, Peters is for a 20 week ban but no further. He notes Nevada’s permissive laws on the subject and did a good job in the debate flipping the issue back on the democrat and their extreme abortion until birth positions that they won’s back down from. He believes abortion isn’t the biggest issue but economic issues are of primary importance. He does a good job stressing the kitchen table issues of Inflation, crime, and immigration.

Fox News has this seat listed as a tossup in their Power Rankings, as does Real Clear. The Cook political report has the seat in their “Leans Democrat” column. On the financials of the race the democrat has a decent advantage with Horsford spending $3.5 million so far this year to Peter’s $1.4 million spent. The cash on hand battle is a little more frightening with Peters down more than 5x $196k to $1.268 million for Horsford. There have been two polls in the race one with the pair even at 43% a piece and the other with Horsford up 3 points. Although both polls are rather old one from August and the other from July.

Hopefully Peters can get some cash in the closing weeks to finish strong and put Horsford in his second retirement from the House.

08/11/2022

New Hampshire’s 1st Congressional District Karoline Leavitt vs. Chris Pappas

In this race we feature two candidates who look quite young, (only one who actually is), and a tale of two families in the ice cream business. The district is only one of two in New Hampshire and features the eastern part of the state taking in Dover along the Atlantic Seaboard and Manchester a little further inland. The district is oddly a hive of comedic talent for Saturday Night Live giving us Seth Meyers, Sarah Silverman and Adam Sandler all of whom hailed from Manchester. The district also boasts the longest lived nun of all time, one Marie Josephine Gaudette who lived from 1902 – 2017.

The republican in this race despite her young age of only 24 years has been active in GOP politics and policy for quite some time. Karoline Leavitt worked in the Trump White House, helping Kayleigh McEnaney prepare for her briefings as press secretary. Since working in the White House Karoline has also worked as communications director for GOP rep Elise Stefanik. Leavitt was born and raised in New Hampshire, is the first in her family to attend college and the first to run for elected office. Her parents own a truck dealership and operate an ice cream stand as well.

In terms of ideology Leavitt seems unabashedly conservative, is Pro Small business and wants to stip away regulations that inhibit growth. In an interview she was quick to reject the premise that America is systemically racist. However she wants to bring more economic opportunity to those in the inner cities. She is in favor of re-instilling a love of country and notes that no one is born racist it is something that is taught. Leavitt is also strongly pro life and supported the overturning of Roe.

The democrat incumbent in this race has held elected office since his opponent was 4 years old. Chris Pappas hails from a family of long standing in New Hampshire, while his forebears also founded an ice cream shop, they have been in the restaurant business for more than a century owning the famous Manchester spot, the Puritan Backroom. Pappas went to Harvard then went on to serve in elected office from the legislature to the New Hampshire Executive council with very few interruptions in the last 20 years. He was elected to congress in the wave year of 2018 and beat Bernie Sanders son in the primary.

Ideologically Pappas is fairly solidly democrat but there are a few issue exceptions that make him stand out. He has however voted with Biden 100% of the time and has a 100% economic liberal voting record. He is pro abortion and wants to codify Roe calling abortion a “private personal decision.” He dodged a question he was asked about abortion until birth and the extreme position which is liberal orthodoxy.

On drugs he departs from his party a little voting against ma*****na legalization. And he highlights the drug crisis. He is also in favor of securing the border and reforming immigration. He pushes more popular talking points as well like banning members of congress from trading stocks. And he does call out Biden for being late to the bus on inflation. He is fairly knowledgeable and has some depth on issues. In a departure from Leavitt who calls New Hampshire routinely the “live free or die state” Pappas will refer to it as the “granite state.”

On the financial side of the race the spend battle has been fairly close, with Karoline Leavitt closely trailing Pappas $1.9 million to $2.27 million. In cash on hand Pappas has more of an advantage leading $2.215 million to $606k. Hopefully Leavitt can keep to parity in the final weeks.

The Cook political report, Fox News and Real Clear Politics all have this race listed as a tossup. The remap only changed the party breakdown very little but in the GOP’s favor going from a Biden +6.1 to a Biden +5.7 district. The latest poll has this as a 1 point race with Pappas up 48-47 previous polls have given Pappas more of an edge as much as 8 points, but none have given him more than 50% which is a good sign for Leavitt.

07/11/2022

Nevada’s 1st Congressional District Mark Robertson vs. Dina Titus

One can call this race the battle of two UNLV professors, one the GOP challenger is a finance professor there, and the incumbent Dina Titus, was a member of the faculty in the political science department. Nevada’s 1st Congressional District used to be drawn tightly around the city of Las Vegas in the redraw it still takes in much of the city but juts out and south east to Henderson and Boulder taking in that splendid engineering and modern marvel of the 1930’s that FDR renamed to spite his predecessor but was eventually re-re-named again, the Hoover Dam. The district has been home to such notables as Harry Reid, originally of Searchlight, Heavyweight Champion Mike Tyson and who could forget Chumlee, one of the stars of Pawn Stars.

The GOP candidate to take on long term incumbent Dina Titus is an impressive one, Mark Roberson dedicated his life serving the United States in the Army, he has been deployed to 10 different countries including Iraq, Afghanistan and Kuwait. In an impressive feat he rose from Private to Colonel (the jump from enlisted to officer is a rarity). And closed out his career working for the Secretary of Defense in the Pentagon. Robertson has deep ties to the district and the area and teaches Finance at the University of Las Vegas Nevada (UNLV).

On the issues Robertson is impressive, he is well spoken and knowledgeable. On economic issues he understands incentives, which should come as no surprise with the finance background. He is in support of finishing the border wall. On life, he is unequivocally pro life (with the exception of r**e, in**st and the life of the mother), he applauds the Dobbs decision and cleverly brings up Ruth Bader Ginsburg’s reservations about Roe when defending his position.

Robertson stresses kitchen table issues such as inflation, crime, poor education, immigration and water rights, which are a bigger deal to Nevada than other states as they are suppliers of water to California and Arizona as well as some of Mexico, fully 20 million people make use of lake Mead’s water, this has become more of an issue in the last few years as the water levels in Lake Mead have been decreasing to its lowest levels since 1937 this past year.

Dina Titus has been somewhat of an institution in Vegas area politics for more than 30 years. She served as State Senator for 20 years from 1988 to 2008 served a term in congress before getting tossed in the 2010 GOP wave election and then clawed back again in 2012 and has held the seat uninterrupted since. Titus grew up around politics in Georgia her uncle was in the GA legislature and her father ran for city council. Interestingly Titus was admitted to the College of William and Mary without a High School Diploma and eventually went on to get a doctorate from Florida State. She taught at UNLV for 34 years retiring in 2011 and wrote several books on Nevada history.

Despite her interesting background her politics doesn’t stray from liberal orthodoxy. She has a 100% liberal and economic voting record according to the 2022 Almanac of American Politics, and she has voted with Biden 100% of the time. She is in favor of codifying Roe and is even open to expanding the supreme court, something so extreme only one or two other tossup seat democrats have voiced it. She calls conservative court victories “against the arc of history” echoing an Obama line. She is also in favor of gun restrictions, and shares the disposition of her former Senator Harry Reid in wanting to junk the filibuster.

In congress she has pushed for consumer protection bills that limit what credit card companies can charge, restricting them from charging excessively high interest rates. She seems to have a passion for animals and has introduced bills to rescue pets in cases of natural disasters and talks about dealing with the Bureau of Land Management and ethical treatment of horses in their wild horse roundups.

On the financial side of the race, republican Mark Robertson is behind, but has kept within range so far this year. In the spend battle Robertson has spent $780k to Dina Titus’ $1.97 million. The cash on hand battle is a little worse with Titus holding $968k in the bank to Robertson’s $295k. Hopefully outside forces come to prop up Robertson in the final weeks.

This race is listed in the Tossup columns on Fox News power rankings, as a tossup on the Cook Political report and as a tossup on Real Clear Politics. According to Politico the party makeup of the district has shifted drastically since the democratic run redraw, with the district dropping from a Biden +25.6 district to a Biden +8.7. There has only been one poll in the race from July and it has Titus up 4 points, 41-37.

07/11/2022

Nevada’s 3rd Congressional District April Becker vs. Susie Lee

Nevada’s Third Congressional District takes in the south western side of the Las Vegas metro area then takes a jog westward as well as south along the state’s borders so the district shares a border with both Arizona and California. The district derives most of its population from The Vegas Metro area and takes in one of the largest Vegas suburbs of Spring Valley. It is home to a variety of athletes and entertainers from Carrot Top, to tennis stars Andre Agassi, Steffi Graf, NASCAR drivers Kurt and Kyle Busch and former Chicago Cub Kris Bryant. Parts of the beautiful Red Rock Canyon National Conservation Area are also in the district.

The GOP challenger in this race is April Becker who won an impressive primary victory getting 65% of the vote in a 4 way race she was endorsed by Kevin McCarthy and Nikki Haley. Becker is a lawyer by trade in Las Vegas and does pro bono legal work to those in need on the side. She does a good job focusing on kitchen table issues like inflation, gas prices and the price of food. She is also attacking her opponent for the bill that adds 87,000 new IRS agents. She does a good job breaking issues down and sounds like a normal person, she can however rely too heavily on the more Fox Newsy talking points.

She has been attacked for her pro life stance, which is to support life except in the cases of r**e, in**st and the life of the mother and to leave the issue up to the states. Nevada’s law currently is quite permissive allowing abortion up to 6 months.

Susie Lee is the democratic incumbent in this seat. She was like many of the other tossup seat reps, elected in the 2018 wave year for democrats. In 2020 she underperformed Biden by 10,000 votes. Like a lot of Nevadans she is originally from somewhere else, Canton, Ohio, and touts her humble beginnings there working a paper route as a kid and coming from a family that “didn’t have much but had enough.” Her (now former) husband is in the casino business as an executive and she was greatly helped being able to match or outspend her opponents.

She has done plenty to help those less fortunate founding an after school program, and a homeless shelter. She also has introduced legislation to limit class sizes. Her family owns 17 homes (14 of which are rented) as well as a private plane. Unsurprisingly she has been labeled as out of touch.

Lee studiously avoids being seen as liberal and avoids using talking points that might make her seem so. While her economic and social liberal voting records are more mixed (56% and 51% respectively) according to the almanac of American Politics, she has voted with Biden 100% of the time and has a 100% pro abortion rating from NARAL.

On the financial side of the race, Susie Lee has a sizable spend advantage from the first part of the year topping Becker $4.3 million to $1.38 million, her cash on hand advantage presently is much less formidable only topping Becker’s $603k with her own $1.2 million stack.

According to Politico the district itself has gotten slightly more pro-democrat in the redraw increasing from a Biden +0.2 district to a Biden + 6.7 district. However, Fox News, Real Clear Politics and the Cook Political Report all have this race listed in their tossup columns, there has been polling in this race but the most recent is from all the way back in July, but it had April Becker up by 3 points. Two other polls have been conducted even less recently one with Lee having a 2 point advantage and another with Becker up by 2.

07/11/2022

New York’s 3rd Congressional District George Devolder-Santos vs. Robert Zimmerman

New York’s 3rd Congressional District confines itself to the northern shore of Long Island starting at the edge of New York City and jutting eastward taking in Oyster Bay and North Hempstead as well as dozens of other small and very small communities along the northern shore. Bill O’Reilly of Fox News fame has lived in the district, but its most famous resident is clearly none other than 26th President of the United States Theodore Roosevelt, whose home Sagamore Hill is in Oyster Bay.

The race itself features two openly gay men vying for the open seat, the republican George DeVolder Santos made light of the rarity of his own circumstance, “I’m a gay republican in New York State, I am probably a walking living breathing contradiction.” Santos has a great American story, and he is still fairly young, his family fled Jewish persecution in Ukraine to Belgium and then to Brazil, they escaped Brazil in the 1980s because of their socialist policies and finally made it to the United States. Santos call himself proof of the American dream he has led a successful finance career following in his mother’s footsteps. His mother had to flee the South Tower of the World Trade Center on 9/11 and was able to escape but, unfortunately died a few years later.

George Devolder-Santos is solidly conservative almost of the smash mouth variety in tone, he is pro cop, pro life and pro law and order. He has received the endorsement of local law enforcement. And he stresses the kitchen table issues of the economy. Santos seems to be a hard working candidate that brings a lot of passion to his politics. And he doesn’t spend much time talking about himself.

Robert Zimmerman is also gay but is more likely to tell you about it. Zimmerman’s background is a smorgasbord of insider appointments and jobs, he got his start working for two different congressmen and later helped a third, he then got into the communications business and is known in democrat circles as somewhat of a PR maven and an effective fundraiser. He got pretty high profile appointments from Democrat presidents, to the Kennedy Center board by Clinton and to the Council of the Humanities by Obama, he is also on the Board of the American Museum of Natural History.

But all these glittering prizes for Zimmerman flow from his involvement in Democrat politics across the decades, he is a longtime member of the DNC and touts his efforts in dismantling the superdelegate system. Ideologically he is solidly democrat with no daylight between himself and the party platform. When asked to describe himself he noted, “grass roots political activism defines who I am.”

He has attacked his opponent for his pro life stance, and smartly tries to stress popular issues like reinstating the State and Local Tax Deduction caps that went into place with the Trump tax cuts. Somewhat oddly on his website he talks about a two state solution for Israel which is kind of a fringe issue to put front and center, but he likes to think himself as someone who supports underdogs. Santos has attacked him as supporting politicians who coddle criminals, the issue of no cash bail has exploded in New York in the last year since they implemented the policy. One shouldn’t underestimate Zimmerman however, he is pretty polished in all his appearances, and comes off fairly well in his demeanor which shouldn’t be surprising for someone who owns a PR shop.

On the financial side of the race, George Santos tried to run in 2020 for congress but was unsuccessful, getting outspent heavily at the time ($400k to $2.2 million) however he has been able to outspend his well connected opponent quite resoundingly since the beginning of the year $2.4 million to $1.63 million. The cash on hand battle is neck and neck though with Santos having $603k to Zimmerman’s $611k.

Real Clear Politics and Fox News list this race as a tossup, the Cook Political Report has it in the “Leans Democrat” column. There has been only one public poll for this race (from early September) and it has Zimmerman up by only one point 42-41. Zimmerman is well below the 50% threshold so that could be a good sign for Santos

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Texas’ 28th Congressional District Cuellar vs. Garcia

This video talks about the heated race between long term democrat incumbent Henry Cuellar and Republican challenger Cassie Garcia, hope you enjoy!

Virginia’s 7th Congressional District Abigail Spanberger v Yesli Vega For the fifth district we will examine, we look at Virginia’s 7th. This is a district now represented by democrat incumbent Abigail Spanberger but was previously repped by republican college professor David Brat in 2018 who famously upset Eric Cantor in his primary. In an odd twist of history it is Cantor’s primary defeat that made a Paul Ryan speakership a possibility, Boehner had groomed Cantor for the job, the defeat rendered that an impossibility and it landed on the reluctant Paul Ryan who then took the mantle. The 7th is in Central Virginia and the Richmond suburbs but now reaches more towards northern VA while barely approaching the Richmond suburbs. Its incumbent Spanberger is another rep who sounds like a moderate if you listen to her but votes like a standard lib for the most part. Her biography however is interesting, she is a former CIA case officer serving overseas. If you listen to her in debates or appearances she is rather measured and not “sound bitey” in what she says, she doesn’t simply repeat MSNBC talking points. She voted against Pelosi for speaker when she was first elected but then voted with many of the other progressive reps for their candidate in 2019 and voted present in 2021. She has gone after the hard left in her caucus for their use of the word socialism, “don’t say socialism, don’t say defund the police when that’s not what we mean” and chastised their constant attacks on trump to no end, “beating the drum about how terrible Donald trump is … its not actually doing something productive.” She also voted against the fderal budget in 2019 citing the national debt as a concern, but now that democrats are running the show has not voiced the same opposition to any of biden’s agenda. This is a trend, Spanberger sounds like a moderate if you listen to her yet has voted with Biden 100% of the time, she only voted with Trump’s stated pos

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Texas’ 28th Congressional District Cuellar vs. Garcia

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