Jay's Wintry Mix

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With a busy winter coming up and lots of views on this page, I am going to start looking at doing sponsored posts to advertise businesses, events, etc...I will have more info soon!

We have a blizzard warning !In Louisiana
01/21/2025

We have a blizzard warning !

In Louisiana

Congrats to the educators of our great county for a well deserved day off! Western Loudoun says you’re welcome!Tomorrow ...
01/20/2025

Congrats to the educators of our great county for a well deserved day off! Western Loudoun says you’re welcome!

Tomorrow I’ll update about some upcoming snow windows and also announce the snowfall contest winner. Stay warm!

Who else got an off day tomorrow?

We have now entered the it’s too cold to snow portion of winter 😞 . Congrats to the Gulf CoastSchool tomorrow or nah?
01/20/2025

We have now entered the it’s too cold to snow portion of winter 😞 . Congrats to the Gulf Coast

School tomorrow or nah?

A wintry afternoon for many folks in the far north and west suburbs but the forecast was a bust for the most part. Waki...
01/20/2025

A wintry afternoon for many folks in the far north and west suburbs but the forecast was a bust for the most part. Waking up to temps that had risen overnight was not on the bingo card. Some of Loudoun did okay i guess but most areas like Fairfax…manassas…dc…not good .

Poorly modeled…poorly forecasted but glad that some people got a good snow but if was further North and west than I thought.

The best part of today was seeing the Ravens lose

Anyone watching eagles game? At any rate the storm is wrapping up…maybe a few more bands west to east.How much do you ha...
01/19/2025

Anyone watching eagles game? At any rate the storm is wrapping up…maybe a few more bands west to east.

How much do you have so far?

230pm update….heads up Leesburg. A really strong band seems headed our way. Sidewalks and roads caving. I know many of u...
01/19/2025

230pm update….heads up Leesburg. A really strong band seems headed our way. Sidewalks and roads caving. I know many of us are seeing different things right now. What are you all seeing ?

Radar seems to look good for a while

Finally starting to snow now in Leesburg and winds are picking up a bit. Radar is stating to fill in. We should be seein...
01/19/2025

Finally starting to snow now in Leesburg and winds are picking up a bit. Radar is stating to fill in. We should be seeing heavier snow soon.
Most of the accumulation was suppose to be between 1 and 5 so we will see. Definitely warmer than anticipated this morning but we didn’t waste much precip

Is it a bust? If we get less than 3….yes

It’s warmer than the models had this morning and it looks like precip won’t be here now till about 10. The models haven’...
01/19/2025

It’s warmer than the models had this morning and it looks like precip won’t be here now till about 10. The models haven’t really changed the snow outputs but after dropping to 32 last night around 10pm …temps rose a bit overnight

The heaviest snow is suppose to fall between noon and 5pmm so it looks like our patience will get tested today.

Good thing we won yesterday and no school tomorrow. This is looking like the lower side of 3-6 but we’ll see how it plays out.

Here is the 00z gfs…still going with 3-6And oh….we just destroyed a 15-2 team on the road in a hostile environment and a...
01/19/2025

Here is the 00z gfs…still going with 3-6

And oh….we just destroyed a 15-2 team on the road in a hostile environment and are one win from a Super Bowl

Incredible. Jayden Daniels may be the best qb in the league as a rookie!

Okay..its time to fully focus on Washington Football being 2 wins away from a Super Bowl appearance. What???Here is the ...
01/18/2025

Okay..its time to fully focus on Washington Football being 2 wins away from a Super Bowl appearance. What???

Here is the current NWS map. I think 3-6 inches area wide is a pretty good forecast with more in the N/W Burbs where it should be colder aloft for better ratios.

We dont know yet where the best bands will setup(there is a certain dome that we always need to worry about :) My other red flag is that its not a very moist storm and it moves fast. If the model precip forecast is right, we should have no trouble hitting our mark but i feel like storms have not been as wet as advertised lately....so throwing that out there. Hope we overperform on the field and in the back yard tomorrow!

The NWS map that shows who is a winter storm warning(3-6) vs winter weather advisory(2-4) is below. Pink: wsw purple wwa...
01/18/2025

The NWS map that shows who is a winter storm warning(3-6) vs winter weather advisory(2-4) is below. Pink: wsw purple wwa

I would put Leesburg in the 3-6 category but it is what it is. The gfs and euro both look good for a solid snowfall for the entire dmv

Brought up the possibility of an Inauguration Day snowstorm about 10 days ago….missed it by a day

I do think a combo of 5 inches plus Siberian blast will close school on Tuesday . More later

Getting a lot of questions on driving I-81 tomorrow towards JMU/Tech,etc....i would try to stay off that road between 9...
01/18/2025

Getting a lot of questions on driving I-81 tomorrow towards JMU/Tech,etc....i would try to stay off that road between 9am and 2:00pm....this is how much snow the GFS has by 10am EST...so if you want to go down there...leave super early like around 4am or today to be safe.

Happy we get to see Jayden Daniels play football today day!. A winter storm warning has now been issued for Western Loud...
01/18/2025

Happy we get to see Jayden Daniels play football today day!. A winter storm warning has now been issued for Western Loudoun(Do you all consider Leesburg eastern or western:). Still waiting to see what happens with the rest of the counties.
The trend last night was a slight shift with the track favoring the N and W Suburbs. I think 3-6 inches in the favored suburbs is reasonable and 2-4 inches closer to DC. This is the current NWS map but it will change several more times today.
Looking closely at the GFS and Euro both models agree on a 7/8am start time but i will update that for you too as we get closer. Best chance for heavy snow between 1 and 4.
Dont forget, you get 10% off if you mention this page at Fire Works Pizza - Leesburg today

I was waiting for the euro to get on board. Dr no finally said yes. More details tomorrow. Good night
01/18/2025

I was waiting for the euro to get on board. Dr no finally said yes. More details tomorrow. Good night

This morning i predicted a winter Storm watch would be issued tomorrow. As usual, I got the forecast wrong and it was is...
01/17/2025

This morning i predicted a winter Storm watch would be issued tomorrow. As usual, I got the forecast wrong and it was issued this afternoon. This will be a classic north and west of dc will do better then dc south and east. The watch right now is only for west and north of town

The GFS model believe it or not is the most robust model. The least robust is Dr no(hard to believe right) but even that Model gives us a good 3-4 inches.

The Winter Storm watch is for up to 5 inches.....We will keep monitoring this to see if we can get more than 5 but looks for a snowy Sunday probably starting at 7am and ending in the later afternoon. The Eagles Rams game in Philly should be snowy! Go Rams!

Just wanted to quickly update you on the Midweek storm next week because there have been many questions about it. While ...
01/17/2025

Just wanted to quickly update you on the Midweek storm next week because there have been many questions about it. While it has the most potential for the big dog...it is also right now mostly a southern storm snow and Ice storm. It woudnt take much to bring it up here but i don't have much confidence right now that it will happen.

I will have a new update on the sunday storm later on. Winter is not going away anytime soon so we will keep having opportunities.

Things are trending up for a legit snowstorm Sunday. Would not shock me if we got a winter storm watch issued tomorrow T...
01/17/2025

Things are trending up for a legit snowstorm Sunday. Would not shock me if we got a winter storm watch issued tomorrow

Timing is earlier too…maybe 7 am start time

15 degrees with howling Siberian winds for Inauguration Day with blowing snow and snowcover. Wild stuff

Still not giving up on next week

A little appetizer snow tonight but still looking at the chance of decent storm for Sunday. I think a 2-4 inch event is ...
01/16/2025

A little appetizer snow tonight but still looking at the chance of decent storm for Sunday. I think a 2-4 inch event is fairly reasonable with timing between 1pm and 9pm as of now. We have models that show more but we also have DR no who is on the lower end now after being the most robust just 12 hours ago.

The more we get--the better the chance of no school Tuesday because severe cold is on the way. This was todays 12z euro for Wednesday morning. Tuesday morning was a bit warmer at +2 lol.

The inauguration day forecast looks just brutal--could look like North Dakota with 19 degrees and snow on the ground. How is Carrie Underwood going to sing in that?

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This Pattern is oozing with potential. Potential to break hearts like the 12z GFS showed when the cold pattern suppressed the storm track too far south or Potential to mend hearts as it showed a blizzard at 18z. One nice thing about the upcoming pattern is all the digital snow that we get to see but digital snow aint cutting it. We need it on the ground ...and fast. If we dont take advantage of this window...winters might be cooked around here lol

Reports of unidentifiable flying objects in Loudoun!

how much do you have so far? Looks like Leesburg as of now is split between the yellow bands lol

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