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With a busy winter coming up and lots of views on this page, I am going to start looking at doing sponsored posts to advertise businesses, events, etc...I will have more info soon!

Anyone remember this post from Dec 21 lol. Well it’s go time. 5 quick talking points1. Winter Storm watches up. First on...
01/04/2025

Anyone remember this post from Dec 21 lol. Well it’s go time. 5 quick talking points
1. Winter Storm watches up. First one in dc in 3 years
2. 6z euro ticked north. It looks like our area could be bullseye
3. Long duration event. Maybe 20-24 hours.
4. My call is 6-10 but I think we can do better. Double digits is possible.
5. The January 11–12 event is back on the table. Never really gave up on that but hard to focus on
6. Sleep schedule wrecked. Much more later

Beautiful run of the 00z European Model. I am feeling good about the 6-10 as it shows all snow. See you all in the morn...
01/04/2025

Beautiful run of the 00z European Model. I am feeling good about the 6-10 as it shows all snow. See you all in the morning and lets hope for another 37 mile tick north lol.

the 18z European model is in. It is south of the GFS but its also colder with less mixing. Tonight-the 00z runs will hav...
01/03/2025

the 18z European model is in. It is south of the GFS but its also colder with less mixing. Tonight-the 00z runs will have finally be run with the energy for the storm over the Western US so it will be interesting. I still thinking 5-10/6-10 but lets see how tonight shake out. Lots of crazy weather today...thunder, white outs, heavy snow. I dont think Dulles hit an inch though so the snowfall contest will end on Monday January 6th i believe...or late on the 5th.

Okay...who is keeping up their Christmas lights to fake a White Christmas? its rare for us to have snow with Christmas lights still on

Anyone seeing snow? If you don’t see it today I think 6-10+ inches is a decent bet for Monday. Dr no is at it again tryi...
01/03/2025

Anyone seeing snow? If you don’t see it today I think 6-10+ inches is a decent bet for Monday. Dr no is at it again trying to say no to us giving us 7-8 and giving central Virginia double digits. We will see if it trends north over the next 24 hours . I need double digits lol. Gfs is snowier right now for our region.

Last night the gfs imploded but made a nice recovery this morning and now seems to be the snowiest modelAfter looking at...
01/03/2025

Last night the gfs imploded but made a nice recovery this morning and now seems to be the snowiest model

After looking at data last night I am less worried about mixing issues so I am sticking with 5-10 right now but leaning higher of that range.

The gfs is inferior to the euro but because it's our American model people get anxiety when it does strange things lol

Stay tuned for snow squall updates this afternoon

We have a major winter storm that is headed for the region. Here are 5 talking points.1) Clipper tomorrow could drop som...
01/02/2025

We have a major winter storm that is headed for the region. Here are 5 talking points.

1) Clipper tomorrow could drop some snow squalls in the afternoon. Some maybe heavy for a brief period. This is a watch the high res models/radar situation so stay tuned tomorrow.

2) The 18z European model just came out and it continues to be rock steady while the other models waffle back and forth. It shows a very significant snowstorm. Except Winter Storm watches tomorrow

3) Mixing will be possible and even likely in some areas. Hopefully not Loudoun but its not out of the question especially if things trend a bit north/warmer over the next 48 hours.

4) Snow will likely start Sunday evening/night. We will get a better sense of timing when the high res models come out but there should be some big rippage overnight into early Monday morning

5) I am going to start with a wide range(5-10) for not yet knowing where the mix line will be if any. I guess if we you stay all snow you could see a foot. Dunno yet. I posted the 18z euro snowfall map but that is not a forecast. Its just digital snow and its fun to look at
6) Snow is fun. We should have 7 of these a winter to track. Not once every 7 years

A combination of a major snowstorm and an Arctic Air Blast that will follow will bring severe cold. You need to be ready...
01/02/2025

A combination of a major snowstorm and an Arctic Air Blast that will follow will bring severe cold. You need to be ready for this winter onslaught by making sure your furnace is operating at peak efficiency. It's almost always less expensive to prevent problems before they crop up than it is to sit in the cold waiting for someone to repair your system! You dont want to play around!

For this January it's cheaper still with Air Treatment Company 15% discount code ATC15. In addition, because they opened their doors in 1958, they're offering $58 service calls to all Jay's Wintry Mix fans and even trolls through the end of January. Air Treatment services all of Northern Virginia. Check out their 5 star google Review and links in the comments for more info!

Here is the European ensemble chances of hitting half a foot from this storm. The ensembles have 50 different members
01/02/2025

Here is the European ensemble chances of hitting half a foot from this storm. The ensembles have 50 different members

Gfs decides to join the European party. Now showing moderate to heavy snow Monday morningPerhaps we can start talking ac...
01/02/2025

Gfs decides to join the European party. Now showing moderate to heavy snow Monday morning

Perhaps we can start talking accumulations tomorrow and if the north trend will keep us all snow or get sleet in the equation. The timing for teachers as we started talking about 5 days ago really can’t be better

Before my weather post….please learn where your county is on a map!
01/02/2025

Before my weather post….please learn where your county is on a map!

The European Model has been very consistent. The 12z run today would indicate one of our best snowstorms in years. The s...
01/01/2025

The European Model has been very consistent. The 12z run today would indicate one of our best snowstorms in years. The storm develops in the midwest in about 84 hours so this we are not talking about fantasy land anymore. The euro implies snow would start around 8:00pm on Sunday night and continue through Monday. However, you all know nothing with snow is a lock so we will keep watching it. The GFS still is not looking anything like the European so that gives me pause even though the euro is a superior model.

I am issuing a Flizzard Watch for Friday afternoon. We could see a period of snow falling from a clipper that could coat...
01/01/2025

I am issuing a Flizzard Watch for Friday afternoon. We could see a period of snow falling from a clipper that could coat the ground to maybe even 1/2 inch of snow. That is an appetizer to the main meal that is coming which I will post about after the 12z runs. Happy New year. Nice morning for those that are racing although it sounds windy outside.

Happy new year! I think we gonna snow
01/01/2025

Happy new year! I think we gonna snow

Afternoon Showers/storms this afternoon on the last day or the year. Winter re-arrives tomorrow and then we watch for ou...
12/31/2024

Afternoon Showers/storms this afternoon on the last day or the year. Winter re-arrives tomorrow and then we watch for our snow event. Snow ranges between the models are 0-14 inches lol. Euro right now is yes...Gfs is no. Gonna be a long week

There is a model battle between the euro and gfs. The euro continues to show a significant snowfall for Sunday night and...
12/31/2024

There is a model battle between the euro and gfs. The euro continues to show a significant snowfall for Sunday night and Monday

The gfs shows a much lesser event that dosent begin till Monday afternoon. I thick the delay in the gfs is hindering its potential.

Teachers….you will just need to handle this situation with patience and maturity as an example to your students 😂

I am always amazed at how warmth always seems to make a comeback. After having one of the coldest starts to December in ...
12/31/2024

I am always amazed at how warmth always seems to make a comeback. After having one of the coldest starts to December in years....we could end the month near normal temps. For a big part of the country....above normal again. I think January is going to end up cold though for much of the country. I will update on the storm tomorrow

Dr No(the European) is far more impressed with the prospects of a snowstorm for Sunday Night and Monday than the GFS. If...
12/30/2024

Dr No(the European) is far more impressed with the prospects of a snowstorm for Sunday Night and Monday than the GFS. If the European is right...it could be significant. If the GFS is right...its a mix bag of junk but probably both solutions would affect school. Long way to go. Meanwhile, New Years Eve looks somewhat rainy. But then again so did last night lol and nothing happened. Massive Bust

Still Watching late next weekend into Monday for a potential winter storm. Looks like it could be a mixed bag. Yes….i kn...
12/30/2024

Still Watching late next weekend into Monday for a potential winter storm. Looks like it could be a mixed bag. Yes….i know the timing would be of significant interest

Sidenote: just realized we don’t play anymore home games this year. What a way to end! There will be a lot of night games next year I’m guessing. HTTR

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