Jay's Wintry Mix

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With a busy winter coming up and lots of views on this page, I am going to start looking at doing sponsored posts to advertise businesses, events, etc...I will have more info soon!

Here is the latest hrrr rainfall totals. Still some wild ranges. We will update the radar around noon but most of the st...
03/16/2025

Here is the latest hrrr rainfall totals. Still some wild ranges. We will update the radar around noon but most of the stuff will occur this afternoon and early evening

Anyone been outside lately? It got warm and muggy! Tomorrow will be our warmest day for a while and we will be checking ...
03/16/2025

Anyone been outside lately? It got warm and muggy! Tomorrow will be our warmest day for a while and we will be checking the radar. Anyone think we will overperform lol?

Outbreak is underway unfortunately in Mississippi. Per my RadarScope app
03/15/2025

Outbreak is underway unfortunately in Mississippi. Per my RadarScope app

HRRR model distribution of rain tomorrow. Some will not be happy.
03/15/2025

HRRR model distribution of rain tomorrow. Some will not be happy.

Pretty scary day on tap for the Deep South tomorrow. There is a high risk for a significant tornado outbreak. For us….we...
03/14/2025

Pretty scary day on tap for the Deep South tomorrow. There is a high risk for a significant tornado outbreak. For us….we are under low risk for severe weather Sunday afternoon but nothing compared to what they may get

I feel like most of what i post is bad news which i kind of like doing. But looking at the Euro seasonal, it seems to pa...
03/14/2025

I feel like most of what i post is bad news which i kind of like doing. But looking at the Euro seasonal, it seems to paint a picture of a normal temp summer with a bulk of the heat to our west. Its also showing above normal precip now based on its latest run.

the bad news lol...it was very wrong this winter. It was way to warm! Seasonal outlooks are a crapshoot. But one thing that never fails in DC is Summer Heat. But will it be moderate heat or high heat? Also next winter shows more promise but that's a different post.

Finally, its showing less activity in the tropics but that's also a different post.

03/14/2025

Anyone get pictures of Lunar Eclipse? Was it worth staying up for?

A few things about Sunday. 1) Not a washout. Don't cancel sunday morning plans or skip church!2) Window for action is be...
03/14/2025

A few things about Sunday.

1) Not a washout. Don't cancel sunday morning plans or skip church!
2) Window for action is between 2-5. It does not mean we will get 3 hours of storms but that is the window when we could see a period of weather....with a risk of Severe. Could see some good wind gusts and a better chance for thunder/Lightning than we saw last week
3) Someone wont be happy. This is not an equal distribution storm system. You all should be used to it by now
4) Monday will be chilly and windy behind the storm.
5) Could be pretty bad for tornados near the Gulf Coast on Saturday

Cold Air Damming. We love it in the winter but it can really spoil a spring day if you like warmth!
03/13/2025

Cold Air Damming. We love it in the winter but it can really spoil a spring day if you like warmth!

One of the reasons I always hold on to hope for March snow is the Superstorm of March 13 1993. I remember calling 202 93...
03/13/2025

One of the reasons I always hold on to hope for March snow is the Superstorm of March 13 1993. I remember calling 202 936 1222 to hear that we were under a blizzard warning when it was still 50 degrees out! I got about 17 inches in Herndon plus a ton of sleet and then severe cold after the storm went by. Years later…I heard the storm had the rare triple phase of 3 jet streams. There had been no storm like it since in terms of power and magnitude from the gulf coast to Maine!

It looks like the chances of severe weather are much better Sunday than last weeks storm. But not everyone is going to c...
03/13/2025

It looks like the chances of severe weather are much better Sunday than last weeks storm. But not everyone is going to cash in. Hopefully we can get more details by Friday but Sunday looks like it could have some exciting moments

Then more March wind after the storm

What a boring March so far. The only excitement today has been to see how much the high pressure over southeast Canada w...
03/12/2025

What a boring March so far. The only excitement today has been to see how much the high pressure over southeast Canada would drop our temps. Turns out--by about 10 degrees!

There is a chance for more exciting weather on Sunday as it looks like we could see a better chance for Severe weather than with the storm last week.

but yes...i cant think of a more boring March in recent memory. We just punted a winter month away lol

03/11/2025

73 at Dulles. Not ready to be 7 degrees away from 80 in early March although I think we hit 80 twice last winter in both January and February?

Do we hit 75 today? The high res models get us to 72. The Euro just 67. Lets see who performs better today. I know most ...
03/11/2025

Do we hit 75 today? The high res models get us to 72. The Euro just 67. Lets see who performs better today. I know most dont care but I do and thats the most important thing :)

Capital weather gang has declared winter over. Congrats to all those that this makes happy!
03/10/2025

Capital weather gang has declared winter over. Congrats to all those that this makes happy!

Watching a powerhouse Midwest storm that may affect next Sunday with some wind and rain. Other than that…pretty quite we...
03/10/2025

Watching a powerhouse Midwest storm that may affect next Sunday with some wind and rain. Other than that…pretty quite week with a general warming trend although Wednesday may not be as warm

But Sunday is the day to watch

We need to get rid of the northwest flow next winter. Yes it was cold and windy but very little interaction between the ...
03/09/2025

We need to get rid of the northwest flow next winter. Yes it was cold and windy but very little interaction between the Northern and southern jet stream so it was just so dry overall. The best storm threats never could climb the coast. The flow and cold were epic though for the lake effect regions but for the big cities on the east coast…snowfall was meh

Only 103 days till we start losing daylight! 👀😂This afternoon will be breezy and tomorrow begins the warmup!Did the time...
03/09/2025

Only 103 days till we start losing daylight! 👀😂
This afternoon will be breezy and tomorrow begins the warmup!

Did the time change mess anyone up? Or is it too soon to know lol

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This Pattern is oozing with potential. Potential to break hearts like the 12z GFS showed when the cold pattern suppressed the storm track too far south or Potential to mend hearts as it showed a blizzard at 18z. One nice thing about the upcoming pattern is all the digital snow that we get to see but digital snow aint cutting it. We need it on the ground ...and fast. If we dont take advantage of this window...winters might be cooked around here lol

Reports of unidentifiable flying objects in Loudoun!

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