Clayton Wood for Knox County Commissioner

11/02/2024

I have been surprised and a bit frustrated at how poor the data is that is available on voting.

Anyone else feel a low grade anxiety related to this election? When I feel that way, I generally feel better and calmer by reviewing data.

World of data did a great job during COVID with that important information.

There is not a website in this world that will report voting results in a massively consequential Presidential election showing you each state, that states rule on voting, where early votes are in that state, which counties and precincts are voting and how that compares to this time in 2020.

Pretty big market opportunity. Votehub has a decent site. L2 data has some great info but don’t love how it is laid out. Where are my fellow political junkies getting their data fix?

One man stands above the rest in terms of reporting on early voting and explaining what it means. Jon Ralston of Nevada is excellent.

https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-early-voting-blog-2024

For the rest we keep hearing people touting polls.

At this point I do not care at all about polls, I do not think they are accurate, they were wrong in 2016 and wrong in 2020 and I believe they will be more wrong this time.

There are lots of new voters in this cycle. That is not modeled well in any of the polls I see.

They make guesses based on demographics.

If you are a 20 year old male first time voter, based on 2020 Biden Trump that should be good for who?

Do you have a different guess based on Joe Rogan, Shawn Ryan, Jake Paul and Theo Von (if you don’t know they are all podcasters who are incredibly popular with young men to the tune of bigger than all the broadcast networks with that demographic)?

Do you think Trump has lost or gained support since 2020?

Do you think Kamala is less or more popular than Biden in 2020?

One thing I can tell you for certain is that in Georgia, GOP counties are up massively in early voting compared to 2020 (30 percent plus in several) and that the more red the county, the higher the voting totals in terms of participation.

I can also tell you that in Nevada (read Jon Ralston) Kamala can only win if independents are favoring her over Trump significantly.

Also in Wisconsin the Democrats will lose statewide unless they have massively more in person voting in Milwaukee on Tuesday not just than in 2020 but in any Presidential cycle in history including 2008 Obama?

Why is no one talking about that? Remember 2008? A change election? People not happy about the economy? In person absentee voting is up 50 percent from 2020. Wait why does that make me so happy? Because of WHERE it is up. It is not up in the highest D areas. It is up in the highest R areas.

Waukesha county is one all Wisconsin political junkies know well (it is where Scott Walker declared his run for President) and Trump has underperformed here relative to other Republicans (he gets 60 percent here not the 66 to 70 percent others got) but no sane prediction has it breaking blue.

It’s the economy stupid.

In many states including Wisconsin, the in person voting was won easily by Trump, same as PA, but they said “wait we need to keep counting this mail, and all of it is for Biden”.

Would you be interested in knowing there are less mail in votes?

If you want Trump to win Wisconsin, you want more married voters, you want more rural voters, you want more working poor voters. Guess what the data shows (L2 is best for this)?

Over a million in person absentee votes cast in Wisconsin already.

Milwaukee is much more important than Madison for that state. You have to crush the GOP in Milwaukee or you cannot win. Early votes? 33% of early ballots returned in person in Milwaukee are coming from Republican voters, but crucially, the early voting is way down from where it was in 2020.

Early voting is up in the rest of the state by a lot (30 and 40 and 50 percent).

Unless Democrats for the first time ever decide to flood in person on Election Day in Wisconsin, the man who Brett Favre endorsed at a massive Green Bay rally this week will win the state, and may win it by such margins that his coattails pick up with new Senator Hovde beating incumbent Tammy Baldwin.

Why is this not a major news story?

Well if you are the GOP, the narrative of it’s a close race and we need every single vote works better for you than “GOP is cruising in Wisconsin” but more importantly, if you are a leftist journalist in Wisconsin (is there any other kind) you know it will hurt you in the fight for state races. It also seems clear to me that the GOP holds in the 8th and 3rd and 1st all seats Democrats spent a bunch of money to try to pick up.

Also helping Trump, a ballot amendment about whether or not to allow non citizens to vote.

Trump beat Hillary in Wisconsin by 20,000 votes.

Biden beat Trump in Wisconsin by 20,000 votes.

I think this cycle Trump wins Wisconsin by 50,000.

Follow along with Nevada’s 2024 election in our early voting blog. Get the latest updates, insights, and key information as voters head to the polls.

10/03/2024

Hurricane Helene was devastating.

At this point I am so proud and grateful of all the ways that people have come together to help.

With communications still limited and many places cut off, there is still a lot we do not know.

The reaction already has definitely shown us all some important things, for those who are paying attention.

I am puzzled somewhat and it has been twenty years, but the reaction to this disaster compared to Katrina has been radically different in terms of:
Nonprofit response,
Media coverage,
Governmental response,
Political fallout.

This is a once in a thousand years event for Western North Carolina and some parts of East Tennessee.

I am not certain if Helene will surpass Katrina, but I feel confident that it is at least the second deadliest hurricane on the US Mainland in the lifetime of almost all of us.

The nonprofit response has been interesting to observe.

In 3 weeks after Katrina over a billion dollars had been raised by nonprofits. There has been absolutely nothing like that in this first week after the devastation of Helene.

Samaritan's Purse is a massive organization that does good work around the globe, but it has been hit very hard at its own headquarters area of Boone, North Carolina. I trust that organization, and I am glad folks have been donating to them.

The American Red Cross has taken massive reputational hits since Katrina for the way it handled that disaster, the way it handled Sandy, the way it handled money given to help Haiti etc. It takes in more than 3 billion a year, and while it has some incredible volunteers, it has also had some serious missteps. The commentary when someone suggests giving to them that immediately followed on post after post, was interesting.

There is a sad (and to me disgusting) impulse for some non-profits that is a race to relevance. "Hey look at us, we are helping flood victims!" Do you know where the needs are? Do you have relevant experience? Can you help best with your time, or talent or treasure? If your "help" is mostly about marketing and PR for your organization, it is to me exactly what Jesus warned us against doing in Matthew 6.

Still the non-profit help that has been encouraging to me has been the army of volunteers who are helping neighbors. Tons of people whose only fanfare has been to let folks know they are taking supplies over to hard hit areas. I have been so encouraged to see people all over my area demonstrate why we are called the Volunteer state.

I was also speaking with a business owner yesterday who has friends in the Asheville community who lost their business. She said, "people often complain about churches, but I am so glad they are all over the place in our area, because they are the ones who are helping." Praise God! That is true, and that should be true, and I am glad she is noticing.

The media response has been pathetic. I think part of that should point us to a recognition that much of the world of media and reporting has been hollowed out and cut in the last twenty years. News Helicopters circled New Orleans constantly after Katrina, whereas today citizen reporting from smartphones has been worlds better than any of our national press. They do not have reporters, and when they do, they have been in the wrong place. There has been more coverage of golf course damage at Augusta than of towns that were scoured from the earth by flooding. You see the same stupid shots of cars with water damage in parking lots and trees that fell on a house in the kind of damage that happens thousands of times a year somewhere in our country, and almost zero of places where new canyons exist where a week ago there was a town.

The choices and failures of the media coverage of this disaster has a large impact on nonprofit support and awareness, governmental response and political fallout from the failings to respond well.

George W Bush was criticized for his "slow" response to Hurricane Katrina. Katrina hit on Monday, August 29th. Relief operations with National Guard troops began the next day, August 30th.

In total, 50,000 guard troops were sent.

The response to Katrina began BEFORE Katrina hit. George Bush declared parts of LA a disaster area on the Saturday before the storm hit. By September 1, President Bush had gotten the Senate to approve over 10 billion in aid. 51 plus billion more was approved on September 7th.

I write all that to remind you that the media over and over and over put the blame for the devastation of Katrina on the President of the United States. The contrast is remarkable.

FEMA is bragging today in release HQ-24-235 that President Biden has given out $20 million in aid...

Political ramifications...

Well first of all the scale of the disaster matters. If 200 people died, that is deeply tragic, but if we find out that it is more like 500-1000 people and ESPECIALLY if we find out that another 100 people die this week because of incredible incompetence in helping rescue survivors, there should be a large fallout.

Ronald Reagan famously said, “The nine most terrifying words in the English language are ‘I’m from the government and I’m here to help.’” If initial reports (and I want to be very clear that there is still tons of confusion and misinformation out there) are true that say that the FAA shut down flight zones where heroic private pilots were using their planes and helicopters to help, it is shameful and there should be consequences. The tendency of bullies is to bully, the tendency of authoritarians is to make problems worse by consolidating control away from the skilled and courageous and to the paid and fearful.

Let the mule trains deliver supplies. Sure, require coordination, but let the church groups deliver the water. See which politicians are allowing the people the freedom to help, and which politicians do not trust people and are poorly micromanaging in a fearful and unproductive way.

Finally, even as I write about the devastation, I want to say that what should be next for parts of Western North Carolina is a return to normalcy as soon as possible, wherever it is possible.

If you work in a tourism-based job, I can guarantee that living in a FEMA trailer and signing up for welfare will not provide you with the dignity and joy you had before that job disappeared.

It is very challenging for business owners to balance compassion for those close by, and what is best for their people. If you have a restaurant close to where a flood devastates a community, closing for a week and giving out free food while keeping your workers busy helping seems wise and commendable. Closing permanently because people want your community to become a memorial to all that was lost will absolutely crush all those who are still alive. Western Carolina is an absolutely gorgeous and special place, and as soon as you are safely able, aside from gifts and donations, for those who love it, come on back to Highlands, and Cashiers, and Black Mountain, and Asheville, and Waynesville, and all the incredible places that rely on your visits to feed their families.

Pray for East TN communities that were hit hard. Rejoice that churches and neighbors are helping. Pray for Western Carolina communities that in some cases no longer exist. Pray that help comes quickly for all the survivors. Pray that the infrastructure is put back in place with urgency. Thank the Lord that we can rely on more than the MSM and recognize how little you can and should trust many of those whose failures mark this moment.

Be watchful. We all should be praying. We all should help as we are called and able. We all should notice what we can learn from what is happening. My trust in some people and groups has increased in the last week. My already low trust in other people and groups has fallen further. Please share below in the comments if you know of great ways to help. Please also share as you find contrasts between the truth and what is being reported (even in the light of incredible devastation that makes shock and harsh language feel appropriate in some ways as always I will only delete comments that have curse words).

May God continue to have mercy on us as we seek to be watchful and mindful and helpful.

03/05/2024

It is so much work to run for office.

Sadly many who are willing to make the sacrifice are narcissistic or egomaniacs. The kind of know it all’s who have been planning on ways to grasp higher so they can wield power since grade school. They aren’t the kind of people I want to see in office.

Toni Scott is a humble servant leader. She is a former public school teacher. She is going to do a fantastic job as the 5th District County Commissioner.

She needs your help tomorrow. If you haven’t voted yet, please get out and vote. If you have already voted, grab your friends and family who haven’t voted and get them to get to the polls. There are 5 candidates and it should be a very close race and we need your help.

It is hard to get a smart Christian conservative with a great personality to be willing to run. Now the doors have been knocked on, the signs have been put up (sometimes multiple times sadly with campaign shenanigans) and the work is almost done. Tomorrow is the big day.

Please get to the polls! Thanks!

02/14/2024

Fifth District voters!

Many of my friends know I ran for office 4 years ago. A question I ask about anything I am praying about doing is “what difference will it make?”

This election cycle, I am thrilled to be able to strongly endorse to all my friends in the 5th District, Toni Scott. I am certain Toni can serve in this role in a way that has a greater impact than I could.

Toni is a servant leader. There are people who have been waiting their entire life to acquire as much power as possible and have been planning to run for office. Those folks often occupy halls of power just as they planned. Toni is the opposite of that. She was convinced to run by the people who know her well and see qualities we need on County Commission.

Toni is smart and wise, but she is also humble. I believe God is calling her for such a time as this to stand for protecting our children, protecting our community and fighting from first principles for liberty.

She went to Farragut, her kids go to Farragut and she worked as a public school teacher. She knows how to support excellence in education.

Today is the first day for Early voting, you can vote across from the artsy movie theater at Downtown West or you can vote in Farragut at the senior center near Village Green that used to be a church.

If you have any questions for me I am happy to answer them! God bless you, so thankful to live in an area where amazing Godly people are willing to serve us as elected leaders.

12/20/2023

Highly recommend adding the daily chapter of Proverbs to whatever else you are doing for quiet time.

I try to pay extra attention to anything repeated each day. Today we have:

10 Unequal weights and unequal measures
are both alike an abomination to the Lord.
and

23 Unequal weights are an abomination to the Lord,
and false scales are not good.

God is just.

His mercy is incomprehensible, and deeply needed by us who He loved so much that He sent Jesus to die and pay for our sins.

He is not neutral on cheating. He is not neutral on hypocrisy. A just system is vital to a functioning Republic. Using different sets of rules for rich or poor, credentialed or not, Republican or Democrat, separated by the false social construct of race, God hates it. He hates it. Those who follow Him should hate it to.

Cheating in the marketplace is evil and it impacts everyone touched by that market (including children who grow up seeing it as profitable to cheat and are led astray). Cheating at a justice level impacts an entire society. It has been widespread throughout human history. It is also evil. We should hate it.

Good questions for me to ask myself:
Are there areas where I judge others where I do not hold myself to the same standard?

Are there areas where I tolerate injustice?

Are there areas where I am hopeful to be the winner in an unjust system instead of working to dismantle it?

Hope you are having a great week! Live for Jesus and celebrate His love in this season and throughout your life.