03/10/2022
The standard identification for missing persons are: fingerprints, dentals and DNA. So what happens when the skeletonized remains are cremated and lost before an X-ray or DNA are obtained? Are there other methods available?
I recall in my statistics course that one of the assignments was calculating the probability that another student in our class shared the same birthday. Then they increased the challenge by adding additional factors: same s*x, same birthday, same hair color. With each factor your chances get lower and lower because of the multiple possibilities.
Let’s calculate the possibility that Finley Creek Jane Doe is my mother, Patricia Otto who vanished from Lewiston, Idaho in 1976, using statistics.
There are currently 17,000 unidentified bodies in the US today. My father-in-law, Rob found one of them in 1978, a Caucasian female, age 17-24, blonde hair, 62-64” tall, 115-140 lbs, no jewelry, no surgery, wearing red pants and a white blouse (may have small red hearts).
Only 40% of missing people are women. That cuts the 17k down to only 6,800.
Of those women, 52% are Caucasian. 6800x52%=3,536 Caucasians.
In 1976, the average woman weighed 144 lbs, this body was estimated to be 115-140, so slightly below average but mother, Patty was 140 lbs, so let’s say she was 48%ile for weight. (3,356 x 48%=1,697 women)
The average American woman is 63.7 inches. Patty was 63”, the body was estimated to be 62-64” tall, so 50%ile. (Half of 1,697=848)
Even in the 70’s, half of women visited hair salons and an estimated 1/3 of women were coloring their hair blonde. It would be difficult to calculate this probability due to lack of data. (Half of the 848=424, if 33% dye it blonde, that leaves 139 blondes)
Lastly, each color has 256 possible variations. So to calculate the combo of red pants and a white blouse would be very challenging! You would have to consider red slacks, red corduroy, red shorts, red skirts, red capris, red leggings and so on. Polyester was the choice of material but the popular colors were pastels, baby blue, yellow and peach. There are over 16,000,000 color combinations using only red, green, blue. Let’s just say, these polyester red pants found on Finley Creek Jane Doe are the same red pants Patty was reported last seen wearing. We won’t even attempt to calculate in the white blouse….the possibilities could exceed 1:16,000,000 or a 0.00000625%.
Any statistical geniuses out there that can help us solve this probability equation?
Episode #7 from The Reporter's Notebook came out this morning! This reveals yet another interesting twist and a new possibility!
https://open.spotify.com/episode/6H7YD0ZNVqNcYxkcSKfK9Z?si=tqJtrXrxT0SgXd_X4AraRg&context=spotify%3Ashow%3A0bMbVvRufjR7Sg3DfrqbZV
