Hurricane Watch Center

11/14/2024

⚠️⚠️TROPICAL UPDATE: 11/14/2024 - 4:00PM

Below are the latest Key Messages from the NHC regarding Tropical Storm Sara.

1. Through early next week, heavy rainfall from Sara will cause potentially catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides over portions of northern Honduras.

2. Elsewhere across Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, western Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo heavy rainfall will cause significant and life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the northern coast of Honduras, and the adjacent Bay Islands where tropical storm warnings are in effect.

4. The system is forecast to approach Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico late this weekend where there is a risk of strong winds. Residents in these areas should monitor the latest forecast updates.

11/13/2024

⚠️⚠️ TROPICAL UPDATE: 1:30PM CST - 11/12/24

Below are the latest spaghetti models for invest 99L.

99L has a 90% chance of developing and is likely to become Tropical Storm Sara.

Residents in Florida should monitor this system closely, as Sara could impact the gulf coast of Florida sometime next week.

11/07/2024

⚠️⚠️ TROPICAL UPDATE: 6:00PM - 11/07/2024

Hurricane Rafael is currently located in the Gulf of Mexico, tracking west-northwest at 9 mph with sustained winds of 105 mph. At this time, Rafael is not expected to directly impact any U.S. interests.

However, residents in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico should continue to monitor the storm closely for any changes in its path.

11/06/2024

⚠️⚠️ TROPICAL UPDATE: 9:00AM -11/06/2024.

Hurricane Rafael is intensifying and is expected to reach major hurricane strength as it nears landfall in Cuba. Currently, Rafael is a Category 2 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 110 mph, moving northwest at 14 mph.

Life-threatening storm surge, hurricane-force winds, and flash flooding are expected to impact portions of western Cuba.

In the Florida Keys, a tropical storm warning remains in effect for Key West, with potential impacts expected as Hurricane Rafael moves closer to the area. Residents should continue to monitor updates and prepare for tropical storm conditions.

11/06/2024

TROPICAL UPDATE: 7:45PM - 11/05/2024

Rafael has strengthened to a Category 1 hurricane, with maximum sustained winds of 75 mph. It is moving NW at 15MPH.

Residents in Key West and surrounding areas should be prepared for tropical storm-force conditions as Rafael’s outer bands approach, which could bring strong winds, heavy rainfall, and possible coastal flooding.

Below is the latest forecast cone from the NHC.

11/05/2024

TROPICAL UPDATE: 10:00AM - 11/05/2024

Below is the latest forecast cone for Tropical Storm Rafael.

Rafael is getting better organized and is expected to strengthen into a hurricane before entering the Gulf of Mexico. Once in the gulf it is expected to weaken as conditions aren’t as favorable.

A Tropical Storm warning has been issued for the Florida Keys.

11/04/2024

⚠️⚠️ TROPICAL UPDATE: 3:00PM CST 11/04/2024

Tropical Depression 18 has strengthened into Tropical Storm Rafael, with maximum sustained winds of 45 mph. The storm is moving north at 9 mph. Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach Jamaica tonight, bringing gusty winds and heavy rain.

Residents in Jamaica should prepare for deteriorating weather conditions tonight and monitor updates closely as the storm moves northward.

Residents in the Florida Keys should keep an eye on this system, as tropical storm watches may be issued for some areas later today.

The storm is expected to move into the Gulf of Mexico later this week, but it's too early to predict its exact path or impact. Residents in the region should stay updated.

Below is the latest forecast cone.

11/03/2024

⚠️⚠️TROPICAL UPDATE: 11/03/24 - 5:30PM

Below is the latest forecast track for Potential Tropical Cyclone 18.

PTC 18 is expected to become Tropical Storm Rafael within the next 24 hours. Some gradual strengthening is expected and then weakening when it enters the Gulf of Mexico - where conditions are less favorable to sustain a strong tropical system.

As always, we will keep you updated with any changes.

11/02/2024

⚠️⚠️ TROPICAL UPDATE: 3:00PM CST - 11/02/2024

A Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Invest 97L tomorrow, which will give us much more accurate information on the system’s organization, strength and potential tracks.

For now, Invest 97L holds at a 60% chance of development through the weekend and an 80% chance over the next 7 days. Its track is uncertain, but conditions remain favorable for gradual strengthening as it moves northward.

We’ll keep you updated with any changes!

11/02/2024

⚠️⚠️ TROPICAL UPDATE: 11:30AM CST - 11/02/2024

The National Hurricane Center has just tagged the system in the southwestern Caribbean as Invest 97L. An "invest" basically means they're officially watching it for possible tropical development, which helps bring in more detailed tracking and data.

Right now, 97L is looking more organized, with conditions favoring gradual strengthening as it heads north to northwest. There’s a good chance it could become a tropical depression or even a tropical storm by the time it reaches the southern Gulf mid-week.

11/02/2024

⚠️⚠️ TROPICAL UPDATE: 11/02/24 - 9:30AM

Southwestern Caribbean Sea:
A broad low-pressure system is bringing scattered showers and storms to the southwestern Caribbean. Conditions are favorable for gradual development, and it’s likely this system will strengthen into a tropical depression, potentially reaching tropical storm status as it moves north to northwest. By Wednesday or Thursday, it could be in the southern Gulf as a tropical storm. Beyond that point, the exact track and intensity are still uncertain. Heavy rain is expected across parts of Jamaica, Hispaniola, and Cuba, so nearby areas should stay alert.

Formation chance in 48 hours: 60%
Formation chance in 7 days: 80%

Near the Greater Antilles:
A trough of low pressure is producing disorganized showers, storms, and gusty winds from Puerto Rico and Hispaniola northeastward. Some slow development is possible over the next couple of days as it drifts west-northwest, but it’s expected to merge with the Caribbean low by early next week. Heavy rain could impact the northern Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, eastern Cuba, and the southeastern Bahamas. See the National Weather Service’s High Seas Forecasts for any gale warnings.

Formation chance in 48 hours: 10%
Formation chance in 7 days: 10%

Elsewhere: Tropical Storm Patty in the North Atlantic will not have any U.S. Impacts.

10/31/2024

⚠️⚠️TROPICAL UPDATE: 10/31/2024 - 1:30PM CST.

🔷Southwestern Caribbean Sea:

The area in the SW Caribbean now has a 60% chance of tropical formation, and an area of low pressure is expected to develop in the southwestern Caribbean in the next day or two. Gradual development is possible, and there's a decent chance we could see a tropical depression form over the weekend or early next week as it drifts north or northwest across the central or western Caribbean.

Whether it becomes a stronger system or not, those from Nicaragua to northern Colombia should prepare for some heavy rain over the next few days.

Chance of formation over 48 hours: 10% (low)
Chance of formation over 7 days: 60% (medium)

🔷Northeastern Caribbean Sea and Greater Antilles:

A low-pressure area near Puerto Rico is bringing lots of clouds and showers to parts of the Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and the northern Leeward Islands. It could slowly develop as it heads west-northwest over the next couple of days, but it’s more likely to merge with the larger system in the Caribbean. Either way, look out for heavy rain from the northern Leewards all the way to eastern Cuba and the southeastern Bahamas.

Chance of formation over 48 hours: 10% (low)
Chance of formation over 7 days: 10% (low)

10/31/2024

⚠️⚠️ TROPICAL UPDATE: 10/31/2024 - 10:30AM CST

The area we are watching in the SW Caribbean is still holding at a 50% chance of development. There’s potential for a tropical system to form over the weekend, and the latest long-range models are in general agreement that this system could move into the Gulf early next week.

At this point, environmental conditions in the Gulf of Mexico may not be conducive to support a strong tropical system, but we’re monitoring any changes closely. Stay tuned—we’ll keep an eye on it and provide updates as new information becomes available.

10/30/2024

⚠️⚠️ TROPICAL UPDATE: 10/30/2024 - 6:00PM CST

We are still keeping an eye on the area of interest in the SW Caribbean. The area has A medium chance of development over the next seven days according to the NHC. Current models still suggest potential development over the weekend or early next week, but it's too soon to know if this will become a more organized tropical system.

We will keep you updated once more information becomes available.

For now, enjoy the festivities! 🎃

10/29/2024

⚠️⚠️ TROPICAL UPDATE: 10/29/2024 - 1:30PM

We’re continuing to monitor an area of interest in the southwestern Caribbean, which currently has a 40% chance of development over the next seven days from the NHC. Unfavorable conditions, including strong, upper winds are likely to keep development in check this week. However, as we move into next week, the environment may become more favorable for tropical activity.

While significant development isn’t expected in the coming days, we’ll have a clearer picture of this system’s potential toward the end of the week. Stay tuned—we’ll keep you updated with the latest information.

10/28/2024

⚠️⚠️ TROPICAL UPDATE: 10/28/2024 - 12;00PM CST

An area of interest in the southwestern Caribbean is being closely monitored with a 40% chance of development in the next 7 days. Conditions are favorable for gradual development and a tropical depression could form later this week.

While it’s still too early to determine a precise path, long range computer models suggest a general north to northwestward track beginning over the weekend. High upper-level winds should keep it away from the U.S. mainland, but we will keep an eye on it for any changes.

Residents in the Caribbean should watch this situation closely.

10/27/2024

⚠️⚠️TROPICAL UPDATE 10/27/2024 - 9:00AM CST

We're closely monitoring an area of interest in the southwestern Caribbean, where an area of low pressure is likely to form within the next few days. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has given this area a 30% chance of development over the next seven days.

This area of low pressure is expected to track northward to northeastward, moving over the southwestern and south-central Caribbean. While conditions may support some gradual development toward the end of the week.

Those in the Caribbean region should keep a close watch on this system as it progresses, and we’ll continue to provide updates as it evolves.

10/26/2024

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