Foreign Policy Observer

06/24/2025

John Helmer:

Sources in Moscow say the terms of the Trump “deal” are quite different.

On the one hand, according to the sources, Trump understands that unless he orders a halt to US arms supplies and battlefield intelligence to the regime in Kiev, Russia will not halt its arms supplies and intelligence-sharing with Iran. The sources add that for the time being Iran is not requesting fresh Russian aid. “Several individuals have been moved under Russian protection; these are individuals and families who have been moved into Russia. North Korean deliveries have been crucial in the run-up — they are basically Chinese. So Iran has not been lacking. They have been ready. Also, they have the capacity to fire several large missiles per day for several weeks, if not months, which the Israelis and Americans cannot stop. These will get through to Israel’s water, gas, and electricity plants, other fuel supplies, and ports.”

The assessment in Moscow is that Iran has demonstrated it has escalation control for the long term, and that in the short term Israel needs US re-supply, re-financing, and recovery more urgently than Iran.

In exchange for Trump’s “ceasefire” to meet the Israeli requests, President Vladimir Putin has communicated that Trump must do nothing to block the acceleration of Russia’s offensive in the Ukraine.

By John Helmer, Moscow According to the Unified Rules of Boxing issued by the US Association of Boxing Commissions and Comb

06/24/2025

M. K. BHADRAKUMAR: Middle East in Crisis – 5

Medvedev listed ten points under the heading What did the Americans achieve with their night strike on three points in Iran? They underscore that Russia’s stance on the developing situation around Iran has shifted to one of unequivocally distancing itself from the US approach going forward. The 10 points are:

1- The critical infrastructure of the nuclear cycle, apparently, was not damaged or was damaged only slightly.

2- The enrichment of nuclear materials, and now we can say directly – and future production of nuclear weapons — will continue.

3- A number of countries are ready to directly supply Iran with their nuclear weapons.

4- Israel is under attack, explosions are thundering, people are in a panic.

5- The United States is drawn into a new conflict with the prospect of a ground operation.

6- The political regime of Iran is preserved, and with a high degree of probability it has become stronger.

7- The people are consolidating around the spiritual leadership, and even those who did not sympathize with him.

8- Trump, who came as a peacemaker president, started a new war for the United States.

9- The absolute majority of countries in the world are against the actions of Israel and the United States.

10- With such success, Trump will never see the Nobel Peace Prize, even despite all the venality of this nomination. A good start, congratulations, Mr. President!

Russian President Vladimir Putin received Iran’s foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, Kremlin, June 23, 2025 The former President and Deputy Chairman of Russia’s Security Council Dmitry Medvedev who is one of the most authoritative voices in the Kremlin, wrote on the Telegram channel on June 23 a cr...

06/24/2025

M. K. BHADRAKUMAR: Middle East in Crisis – 4

There is an abject lesson here for Trump, too. Iran is a fiercely independent country which, no doubt, is interested to have a productive relationship with the US, but the question, from the US perspective, is how to go about it. Certainly, it cannot be the John Wayne way.

Where the US failed repeatedly is also on this score — its inability or refusal to seek an equal relationship with Iran based on mutual respect. If Trump carries out a decapitation of the Iranian leader, he might as well forget about a normalisation of the US-Iran relationship for decades to come. And its debilitating consequence will be that even the US’ residual influence in the West Asian region will drain away within Trump’s presidency. In fact, any such incredibly stupid act may even lead to the emergence of a ultra-nationalistic nuclear weapon state.

Russian President Vladimir Putin (3rd from left on top) met with heads of international news agencies, St. Petersburg, June 19, 2025 Putin in reflective mood muses on US-Iran confrontation The US President Donald Trump who sought President Vladimir Putin’s active help a fortnight ago to mediate in...

06/24/2025

Patrick Armstrong

My goodness! Trump’s done it again. From a mess of bloviation, trash talking, boasting, theatrical productions, deception and deflection, empty gestures and gas, he’s made something. The Israel-Iran war is apparently stopping (for now). And, part of the deal is that we are all supposed to agree that Iran’s nuclear program has been obliterated so we must all stop talking about it. (Interesting to see how that bit of mental gymnastics is handled.)

Some people whose analysis I respect (notably “Armchair Warlord” and “Simplicius”) suspected a theatrical production from the start (did any B2s even fly there?) and I was reminded of other wonderful, spectacular, powerful nothingburgers from Trump.1. For example in 2017 the loud and completely ineffective strike on Syria with a reprise the next year. Inconsistent inconsistencies I called them. The American strike was matched by Tehran’s equally theatrical production today: advance warning, loud bangs, victory claims and not much else. (But from Tehran’s perspective some more Patriot missiles used up: how many are left in the locker do you suppose? 600 to be produced this year they say but they keep needing more and more in Ukraine and there’s a lot to be replaced in Israel.)

So, what have we learned?…

My goodness! Trump’s done it again. From a mess of bloviation, trash talking, boasting, theatrical productions, deception and deflection, empty gestures and gas, he’s made something. Th…

06/24/2025

Donald Trump has reacted furiously after an Israel-Iran ceasefire he had brokered and taken credit for was violated within a few hours, ordering Israel to turn its warplanes around midair and abort their planned bombing sorties, which he warned would be a “major violation”.

US president orders Israel to turn around its planes, warning bombing sorties would be ‘major violation’

06/24/2025

06/23/2025

According to the Iranian Ministry of Health and Medical Education, at least 224 people have been killed and 1,481 wounded.

Iran has retaliated with a wave of ballistic missile strikes against Israel, claiming the lives of at least 24 people and wounding 380, in an escalation that has raised fears of a broader regional conflict.

In Tehran, the full scale of the destruction remains to be seen. But in the streets, evidence of the lives lost emerges from the wreckage of bombed-out buildings. A child’s lifeless body in the rubble. A dirt-covered doll abandoned in the street. A sketchbook lost among the concrete and dust.

For many Iranians, these scenes evoke memories of the Iran-Iraq War. But this time, the war is not at the borders; it’s in the heart of the capital.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/6/16/athlete-pilates-instructor-teacher-human-toll-of-israels-attack-on-iran?

Israeli air strikes on Tehran have disrupted daily life, killing civilians and fuelling fears of a wider regional war.

06/23/2025

Simplicius:

There are various reports going around that through the usual Swiss back channels Trump’s administration essentially informed Iran of the strikes, implying that as long as Iran does not respond it will be a ‘one-off’ attack. If true, this would be clear indication that the proposed back-channel agreement would require Iran to allow the US strike package to pass unharmed, and give the US its face-saving off-ramp from the conflict. This was one of the possibilities we predicted days ago in the premium article and now seems increasingly likely to be the case.

This is not Trump’s first time: recall the infamous 2017 Tomahawk attack on Syria’s Shayrat base which was billed as some kind of ‘devastating’ deathblow, when it turned out to be a show-strike nothingburger which left a few potholes on the runway and did no real damage. This is Trump’s way of alleviating neocon pressure—a sort of purity test for his Israeli handlers.
…

Now, there are rumors that Israel may use the given ‘off-ramp’ as pretense to likewise conclude a new deal and end hostilities, given that Israel has exhausted itself and is now losing a war of attrition against Iran.

Well, Trump did it again: under cover of giving Iran “two weeks” negotiating time, he instead launched a covert attack as soon as the assets were in place, later telling ‘Meet the Press’ that he said he would make the decision within two weeks, and two days technically falls in that time sca...

06/23/2025

Larry Johnson:

I think Iran’s ultimate decision hinges on a number of factors. First, Iran is not likely to shut off the flow of oil that would harm India or China, which means Iran is likely to consult with those governments. Second, Iran is not eager to sabotage its relations with Saudi Arabia, and is also going to talk with Mohammad Bin Salman before taking this step.

The biggest factor is Russia. Iran’s Foreign Minister Araghchi is in Moscow and is going to meet with President Putin. Putin has made it clear in the last few days that Russia is prepared to provide all support Iran requests to boost air-defense capabilities, provide intelligence and expand efforts to build up Iran’s ability to produce nuclear energy. The ball is in Iran’s court.

I think Iran will delay hitting any US targets in the Gulf or Syria as long as the massive assets the US deployed to the region are in place. It is very expensive for the US to keep those air and naval assets in place for an extended period, especially given concerns that by focusing on Iran the US has weakened its capabilities in the INDOPACOM, i.e., China. Instead, Iran will continue its attrition campaign against Israel.

The US attack has provided Iran with an important PR victory that is resonating among Islamic countries and other members of the Global South. Iran, if it is smart, will play the long game, rather than go for an emotionally driven retaliation. If Iran continues to successfully strike Israel, the euphoria in the US about the “success” of the attacks on the nuclear sites in Iran will fade and Trump will come under more pressure to strike again. If Iran agrees to accept Russia’s proffer of assistance, such as deploying several S-400 systems around strategic sites throughout Iran, then the US will face a more formidable challenge if it decides to renew strikes inside Iran.

China and Russia Reaffirm Support for Iran as Iran Weighs Response Options 22 June 2025 by Larry C. Johnson 111 Comments Ignore the noise and euphoria that is burbling in Washington, DC in the aftermath of Trump’s strikes on Iranian nuclear sites. The Trump administration is claiming a massive vic...

06/23/2025

Juan Cole:

The most likely outcome of the current struggle is that Iran will reply in some symbolic way to Trump’s attack, but will attempt to avoid drawing the US into a wider war. Of course, calibrating these things is difficult and either or both sides could overshoot, leading to a big war. I assess that as possible but unlikely.

Iran will engage in tit for tat missile and drone attacks with Israel until Israel runs out of missile interceptors and has to stand down.

Russia, China and Iran’s own factories will gradually replace Iran’s expended missiles and drones, though as covertly as possible to avoid further Israeli strikes.

https://scheerpost.com/2025/06/23/the-current-iran-war-will-likely-end-soon-but-the-arms-race-will-heat-up/?

Tehran from Velenjak, Iran (by Ninara) | Flickr By Juan Cole / Informed Comment Ann Arbor (Informed Comment) – The Al Jazeera bureau chief in Tehran, Abdul Qader Fayez, reports from “info…

06/23/2025

Americans may well start to wonder how it is they keep electing presidents to end wars and focus on problems at home, but keep getting the wars they didn’t want, and seemingly worse and more dangerous ones each time, fought on behalf of a foreign country’s interests no less.

The answer is a political system that is more and more insulated from the wishes and interests of the people it’s meant to serve, and which is awash in corruption.

Besides its behind-the-scenes power, the Israel First lobby has put tens of millions of dollars into US elections the last few years to swing the results its way, choking out even the wisps of political courage in Washington to defy Israel’s wishes on this or any other matter.

It took less than half a year for Donald Trump to renege on the promises he incessantly made on the campaign trail and plunge the country into another dumb, potentially bloody Middle East war no one wants.