Foreign Policy Observer

Foreign Policy Observer Following US foreign policy with a critical eye. Views from outside the mainstream media. I am a mix of an anti-war idealist with some Mearsheimer-style Realism.

Plus throw in some wisdom from Noam Chomsky. Per Chomsky, I think western elites manufacture and manipulate public opinion using the media - especially when it comes to foreign policy! I hope to expose people to news and opinions that they might not otherwise hear.

*I deliberately do not source from RT or Sputnik to avoid being labeled as a Kremlin stooge.

11/23/2025
Simplicius:The overall plan is clear. Trump intends to use ‘strategic ambiguity’ to put massive psychological pressure o...
11/23/2025

Simplicius:

The overall plan is clear. Trump intends to use ‘strategic ambiguity’ to put massive psychological pressure on Maduro’s administration, by weakening public support via a regime of uncertainty about the country’s economic future, general prosperity, and stability.

The reason is, as ‘rumored’ reports last week had indicated, Trump is uncertain about the success of any major military action against Venezuela; in short, Trump is afraid to walk into a giant blunder and face humiliation at the hands of one of South America’s largest military forces.

That means Trump may be leaning towards simply using the large American buildup in conjunction with various instruments of economic terror as a lever to bring down Maduro.

Buried beneath the theater of the Ukraine war’s terminal crescendos, Trump’s administration has quietly tightened the noose around Venezuela.

VP of the United States:
11/23/2025

VP of the United States:

Moon of Alabama:Ukraine SitRep – Power Play In Kiev And Chaos At The FrontThe situation in Ukraine is becoming even more...
11/20/2025

Moon of Alabama:

Ukraine SitRep – Power Play In Kiev And Chaos At The Front
The situation in Ukraine is becoming even more complicate.

The war on the frontline is going bad for Ukraine as is the war on infrastructure deep behind the contact line.

A corruption scandal is used to neuter President Zelenski. New power structures are set to evolve to further the ex*****on of the war. President Trump is attempting to impose another peace effort while Europe finds that it lacks the money to finance Ukraine and the war.

There are at least seven cities which are falling or are destined to fall within the next few month.

A corruption scandal is used to neuter President Zelenski. New power structures are set to evolve to further the ex*****on of the war. President Trump is attempting to impose another peace effort while Europe finds that it lacks the money to finance Ukraine and the war.

The Trump administration has been secretly working in consultation with Russia to draft a new plan to end the war in Ukr...
11/19/2025

The Trump administration has been secretly working in consultation with Russia to draft a new plan to end the war in Ukraine

"We feel the Russian position is really being heard," Russia's envoy told Axios.

A new video posted November 17, 2025.
11/19/2025

A new video posted November 17, 2025.

A new video by The American Conservative Magazine, a publication of the American Ideas Institute.------► Support The American Conservative's Mission to recla...

Larry Johnson:Like a bad Italian opera, the fat lady is singing from a balcony overlooking a city that is ablaze. Zaporh...
11/19/2025

Larry Johnson:

Like a bad Italian opera, the fat lady is singing from a balcony overlooking a city that is ablaze. Zaporhyzhia, Dneipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kherson, Kharkiv, Sumy… The Russian ground forces are attacking in all of these locations, which represents about 1,000 miles of territory stretching from Sumy in the north to Zaporhyzhia in the south. Russia is inflicting an average of 1,335 casualties a day on the Ukrainian forces, which translates into 456,695 losses in 2025 as of November 17. That is almost 40,000 per month. Add to that an estimated 20,000 to 40,000 desertions each month… That means Ukraine must recruit a minimum of 60,000 new conscripts each month just to maintain its current troop strength. That ain’t happening (see chart above).

The recruitment figures cited by the Atlantic Council and the Institute for the Study of War, which represent partisan pro-Ukrainian sites, reinforce the dire state of the Ukrainian forces. When your very best friends are telling you that you are 50% short, you know things are grim.

Meanwhile, back in Kiev, Zelensky ain’t home. He’s scampering about Europe pleading for more money, but the Europeans are focused intently on the brewing corruption scandals haunting the Z-man. There is not a lot of enthusiasm for sending billions of dollars more to Ukraine as key officials in Zelensky’s government seek sanctuary in Israel (i.e., you don’t get extradited from Israel if you’re Jewish, even if major criminal charges hand over your head).

There are rumors in Moscow that the diplomatic dance with Washington is heating up, but I think that is just wishful thinking on the part of some in Washington. Trump’s failure to deliver on peace, coupled with his bombastic, threatening rhetoric towards Venezuela, Iran and Russia, is losing him support and fracturing his MAGA base.

Ukraine’s Days are Numbered 18 November 2025 by Larry C. Johnson 68 Comments Like a bad Italian opera, the fat lady is singing from a balcony overlooking a city that is ablaze. Zaporhyzhia, Dneipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kherson, Kharkiv, Sumy… The Russian ground forces are attacking in all of these ...

Simplicius:
11/18/2025

Simplicius:

A note on the Russian energy attacks by Ukraine.

The Palestinian foreign minister has described the UN security council resolution endorsing Donald Trump’s plan to end t...
11/18/2025

The Palestinian foreign minister has described the UN security council resolution endorsing Donald Trump’s plan to end the war in Gaza as a necessary first step on a long road towards peace, even as Hamas rejected it as a form of international guardianship with which it will not cooperate.

Varsen Aghabekian Shahin backs resolution, while Hamas rejects idea of international force inside territory

Inside the Ukrainian Corruption Probe Edging Closer to ZelenskyKYIV, Ukraine—It was just past 2 a.m. when Tymur Mindich ...
11/18/2025

Inside the Ukrainian Corruption Probe Edging Closer to Zelensky

KYIV, Ukraine—It was just past 2 a.m. when Tymur Mindich crossed the border into Poland last week—a few hours before detectives descended on his Ukrainian home as part of an investigation into high-level corruption that has convulsed the war-torn country.

Some 70 residences across Ukraine were raided in the operation as part of the criminal investigation in which five people were detained. Mindich, a former business partner of President Volodymyr Zelensky and one of those officially accused, remains at large outside Ukraine.

“Was he warned?” Semen Kryvonos, director of the National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine, the independent law-enforcement agency which conducted the operation, said in a video interview with Ukrainian media. “This must be investigated.”

Mindich couldn’t be reached for comment.

The corruption allegations have angered Ukrainians enduring wartime hardships, and now pose the clearest threat to Zelensky’s leadership since Russia’s abortive attempt to take Kyiv in early 2022.

The investigation has reached higher in the government—and closer to Zelensky himself—than any other since he took office. Anticorruption activists say that the NABU operation is part of a generational struggle to dismantle the Ukrainian culture of kleptocracy that dates back to the Soviet era. Though Zelensky rose to power on promises to end endemic corruption and graft, activists are now questioning whether he is still committed to the idea.

According to NABU investigators, Mindich, who co-founded a production company with Zelensky before he became president, was the leader of a “criminal organization” that siphoned off $100 million through Ukraine’s state nuclear-energy company, Energoatom.

He has been officially accused of creating and leading a criminal organization operating in the energy sector and of money laundering.

According to the investigators, in collaboration with employees of Energoatom, Mindich and others pressured contractors with the company to pay 10-15% of the value of the contracts in kickbacks. Those who refused risked having their contracts canceled, investigators allege.

In a statement, Energoatom’s supervisory board said it was undertaking an evaluation of the company’s procedures. It has said it takes the allegations against its employees seriously and is committed to ensuring full transparency and accountability.

Zelensky wasn’t named in the corruption probe and hasn’t been accused of wrongdoing. Zelensky’s office didn’t respond to a request for comment.

As investigators have made details about the investigation public—like Mindich’s dead-of-night escape and audio recordings of suspects discussing how best to carry large volumes of cash—Ukrainians have grown furious.

Through the war, middle- and working-class citizens have donated to help military units buy drones or vehicles. Now, many suspect their leaders were enriching themselves while poor Ukrainians were making sacrifices.

The timing of the probe adds insult to injury: Much of the country is dealing with blackouts—which leave many homes without heat—following Russian strikes on the country’s energy infrastructure. According to NABU’s findings, contracts to install protection over energy sites this fall were delayed while an Energoatom official held out for a larger payoff.

Abroad, the threat to Zelensky is just as stark. President Trump has already, at times, expressed reluctance to continue sending weapons and other aid to Ukraine, while other American officials have questioned how Kyiv is using American funds. Even allegations of corruption in Zelensky’s administration risk the U.S. turning off the aid spigot.

Zelensky has tried to make a forceful stand in response to the allegations. He demanded the resignations of two cabinet ministers, one of whom was allegedly part of the Energoatom kickback scheme. He also imposed sanctions on Mindich and another businessman implicated in the investigation. He has now begun an audit of state-owned companies, and says the entire Energy Ministry will be reorganized under new leadership.

“It is absolutely unacceptable that, amid all this, there are also some schemes in the energy sector,” Zelensky said in a public address last week. “Right now we all must protect Ukraine. Undermining the state means you will be held accountable. Breaking the law means you will be held accountable.”

Daria Kaleniuk, co-founder of the nongovernmental Anticorruption Action Center, said Zelensky has the chance to emerge from the war as a Ukrainian Winston Churchill but needs to take decisive action now.

“We can fight Russia much better if there’s better governance,” she said. If Zelensky tries to get his friends out of trouble, she added, “it will ruin the country and ruin himself.”

Corruption has been one of the most explosive political issues in Ukraine since the country gained independence from the Soviet Union in 1991. Anger at self-dealing in the government helped fuel a revolution in 2014, which ousted then-President Viktor Yanukovych. His grand personal residence, which included a menagerie of exotic animals and a golden toilet, was turned into a Museum of Corruption, open to the public. The U.S. Federal Bureau of Investigation helped set up NABU in the aftermath of the revolution.

When Zelensky ran for the presidency in 2019, he made cracking down on corruption one of his signature platforms. Early in his tenure, he recorded videos encouraging citizens to report any foul play to NABU, which operates largely outside the president’s control. He also established a court for high-level cases, and one of his associates, Ihor Kolomoisky, is in pretrial detention for alleged financial fraud. He has denied wrongdoing.

However, as Zelensky’s term has gone on, questions have mounted over how dedicated the president remains to rooting out corruption.

In 2020, a NABU investigation into a deputy head of Zelensky’s office was removed from the agency and handed to the prosecutor general, who is appointed by the president—a move widely seen in Ukraine as an effort to protect a political ally of Zelensky. The case has since been closed. Zelensky’s office didn’t respond to a request for comment.

This year, as the NABU investigation into corruption at Energoatom picked up steam, officials from the agency said they faced what they described as efforts to impede their work.

In July, a detective working on the investigation, Ruslan Magomedrasulov, was detained by the Security Services of Ukraine, known as the SBU, an agency whose director is appointed by Zelensky. He remains in pretrial detention on charges that he was working with Russia. His father was also arrested.

Magomedrasulov’s lawyer, Olena Scherban, said the allegations against him were fabricated, and were designed to interfere not only with the Energoatom investigation, but to find out what information NABU had, and deter the agency from pursuing cases against the country’s most powerful.

“It was an attempt to stop NABU’s special operation,” Scherban said.

The day after Magomedrasulov’s detention, Ukraine’s Parliament passed a bill that stripped NABU and its sister agency, the Special Anticorruption Prosecutor’s Office, of independence, effectively giving the president a check on their activities. Zelensky signed the bill the day it was passed, but quickly reversed course after nationwide public protests erupted.

The political upheaval in July “clearly influenced the investigation,” code named “Midas,” into Energoatom, Kryvonos said in a video interview with Ukrainska Pravda, a Ukrainian news outlet. “If the independence of NABU and SAPO hadn’t been restored at that time, the ‘Midas’ operation simply wouldn’t have happened.”

Kryvonos said the funds which were allegedly siphoned off in the scheme have since been dispersed throughout numerous foreign countries and used to purchase property and other assets.

In one set of recordings made public by investigators, associates discuss sending payments of $6 million, divided between different tranches, to Mindich in Switzerland, where he was buying a house.

Mindich left the country legally last week, according to the border guards. Investigators said they didn’t warn the border guards about the operation ahead of time because of the risk that they might tip off suspects.

Kryvonos added that NABU was still hunting suspects in the investigation.

“We will identify every one of them,” he said.

https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/inside-the-ukrainian-corruption-probe-edging-closer-to-zelensky-eb8d9f81?

The investigation has reached higher up in Ukraine and closer to the president himself than any other during his tenure.

Ukraine’s Cash Is Running Low, and Europe Has No Good Plan BEuropean Union officials have spent months focused on a plan...
11/18/2025

Ukraine’s Cash Is Running Low, and Europe Has No Good Plan B

European Union officials have spent months focused on a plan to use frozen Russian assets to make a loan to Ukraine that could help Kyiv fight the next phase of the war.

It is increasingly clear that the bloc has nothing but bad alternatives should that fail.

The loan plan, through which the European Union would use Russia’s central bank assets in Belgium to funnel 140 billion euros, or about $160 billion, to Ukraine, was expected to move forward at the bloc’s political meeting last month. Instead, in a last-minute surprise, Belgium blocked it.

Belgian officials say they are worried that the nation could be on the hook should Russia file a lawsuit or demand its money back. To mitigate that risk, they are asking that other European nations firmly commit to taking on some of the burden through guarantees, a suggestion that has met with pushback from Slovakia. They have also been pressing the European Commission, the bloc’s executive arm, to consider other options for getting money to Ukraine.

The commission set out those alternatives in a letter sent to national capitals on Monday and seen by The New York Times. One option would be for the European Union to issue joint debt to raise the money Ukraine needs. Another would be for individual member states to give Ukraine direct grants. But both have problems. Joint borrowing would be expensive, entailing interest costs, and direct grants would strain the budgets of already-indebted nations.

Given that, policymakers, diplomats and outside experts in Brussels often voice confidence that the frozen asset loan plan will come together — not because it is without complications, but because the backups are so unattractive at a moment when so much is at stake.

“What is clear is that Plan B is less good than Plan A,” said Nicolas Véron, who co-founded the economic research organization Bruegel in Brussels and who is also at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington. “Is not giving money to Ukraine an option? The answer is no.”

Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the commission, said last week that while the other two options exist, the loan using the frozen assets “is the most effective way to sustain Ukraine’s defense and its economy.”

The frozen asset loan plan offers advantages. The bloc would be able to make Ukraine a zero-interest loan that would need to be paid back only if Russia paid reparations. It would also allow for a big, headline-grabbing cash infusion that would demonstrate to the Kremlin that Ukraine has the funding to get through the war.

Not only would the alternatives prove more financially stressful, but they would most likely involve only smaller and more incremental flows of cash to Ukraine.

If the European Union had to use one of those other options, “it would reinforce the perception in Putin’s mind that time is on his side,” said Mujtaba Rahman, managing director for Europe at the Eurasia Group, a political risk consultancy.

But some E.U. countries have been reluctant to offer the kind of reassurance that Belgium is looking for to accept the frozen asset loan plan. Prime Minister Robert Fico of Slovakia has warned that his country would oppose such a setup if the money is used for military costs.

Russia issued another warning in state media last week that it could come after Belgium if the assets were seized. While E.U. officials have made it clear that they do not see making a loan against the assets as a seizure, Russia does not recognize that distinction.

Even the European Commission acknowledged in its letter on Monday that there is a risk that the frozen asset loan would be “incorrectly perceived” as a confiscation of Russia’s savings — a move that could worry international investors who keep money in Europe.

Still, the commission also warned against a “search for perfect or simple solutions which do not exist.”

Time to reach an agreement could be running low. The International Monetary Fund has estimated that Ukraine’s budget gap is around $65 billion for 2026 and 2027, based on reporting from Bloomberg News.

E.U. officials regularly suggest that Ukraine will need a new cash infusion by March or April. But it is unclear whether they can get for an agreement by the time bloc political leaders meet next on Dec. 18.

If a loan takes too long, Valdis Dombrovskis, the European economy commissioner, has suggested that the bloc may need to consider solutions to bridge a funding gap in the spring. The commission’s letter this week suggested that the options could be combined, or even used temporarily, to make sure that money gets to Ukraine in time.

Matters have been complicated further by Belgium’s domestic political situation. Prime Minister Bart De Wever’s government has struggled for months to pass a budget, and it is possible the governing coalition will collapse if a deal is not reached by the end of December.

Some in the bloc are hoping for an outside boost that will make the loan plan more palatable. Norway, which is not in the European Union but which is closely tied to it economically, has benefited financially from the war as energy prices — and the resource-endowed nation’s revenues — have shot up. Given that, two Norwegian economists have argued that the country should help to guarantee the E.U. loan.

“What use would our sovereign wealth fund be to future generations if we lived in bo***ge to Russia?” said Knut Anton Mork, one of the economists.

Norwegian lawmakers are open to the idea. But the country would not want to be a sole guarantor on the frozen asset loan, Jens Stoltenberg, the Norwegian finance minister, said last week.

The upshot? European leaders are in for weeks of fierce negotiation as they try to make the asset plan come through — and face serious risks if they cannot.

The European Union wants to finance Ukraine’s war efforts using a loan based on Russia’s frozen assets in Belgium. If that falls through, there’s no easy alternative.

Simplicius:Major efforts are stepping up to put pressure on Zelensky in what’s beginning to look like a campaign to fina...
11/15/2025

Simplicius:

Major efforts are stepping up to put pressure on Zelensky in what’s beginning to look like a campaign to finally evict him from power

Major efforts are stepping up to put pressure on Zelensky in what’s beginning to look like a campaign to finally evict him from power:

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