Foreign Policy Observer

Foreign Policy Observer Following US foreign policy with a critical eye. Views from outside the mainstream media. I am a mix of an anti-war idealist with some Mearsheimer-style Realism.

Plus throw in some wisdom from Noam Chomsky. Per Chomsky, I think western elites manufacture and manipulate public opinion using the media - especially when it comes to foreign policy! I hope to expose people to news and opinions that they might not otherwise hear.

*I deliberately do not source from RT or Sputnik to avoid being labeled as a Kremlin stooge.

Today, experts estimate the odds of military conflict at roughly one in three before year’s end. With over 6,500 America...
10/24/2025

Today, experts estimate the odds of military conflict at roughly one in three before year’s end. With over 6,500 American troops deployed to the region, F-35 fighter jets prowling Venezuelan airspace, and President Donald Trump declaring the United States in “armed conflict” with drug cartels, the question is no longer whether Washington will escalate further but whether it has learned anything from three decades of counterproductive intervention.

The answer, unfortunately, appears to be no.

On a moonless night in September 2025, American warships patrolling the Caribbean Sea opened fire on a Venezuelan vessel, killing eleven people. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth described it matter-of-factly as another drug interdiction operation. But to those watching the steady deterioration of U.S....

Moon of Alabama:Trump Fails To End His Proxy War With RussiaIt there any politician who is less reliable than U.S. Presi...
10/24/2025

Moon of Alabama:

Trump Fails To End His Proxy War With Russia

It there any politician who is less reliable than U.S. President Donald Trump?

At the August summit in Anchorage with President Vladimir Putin of Russia Trump had aimed at a ceasefire along the frontline in Ukraine. But Putin made clear that the war required a long term solution of the underlying problem, NATO enlargement, and that a preliminary ceasefire would not be helpful in that regard. Russia also demanded full control of the Donbas and other regions.


There is simply no way for the U.S. and/or its European vassals to prevent a Russian victory in Ukraine. To insist on a different outcome will not change the facts on the ground.

Trump seems to know that he can only end the war with a compromise that will largely give Russia whatever it wants. But lacks the support, will and power to achieve it.

At the August summit in Anchorage with President Vladimir Putin of Russia Trump had aimed at a ceasefire along the frontline in Ukraine. But Putin made clear that the war required a long term solution of the underlying problem, NATO enlargement, and that a preliminary ceasefire would not be helpful....

While Germany thought that it would inflict a strategic defeat upon Russia, the US ended up inflicting a strategic defea...
10/23/2025

While Germany thought that it would inflict a strategic defeat upon Russia, the US ended up inflicting a strategic defeat upon Germany by engineering the circumstances whereby its only Western competitor’s economy would decline. Together with Poland, whose Anglo-American-backed revival of its Great Power status conveniently creates a regional wedge between Germany and Russia, the US is geostrategically re-engineering Europe at Germany’s expense in order to facilitate Russia’s post-Ukraine containment.

Poland’s role in providing more US LNG to Central & Eastern Europe is expected to erode Germany’s influence in this region and accelerate Poland’s revival of its lost Great Power status.

Trump’s latest flip-flop surprised many but can be attributable in hindsight to the following five reasons…
10/23/2025

Trump’s latest flip-flop surprised many but can be attributable in hindsight to the following five reasons…

They’re all primarily due to his belief (however possibly mistaken) that Putin won’t risk tensions spiraling out of control in response.

Ultimately, the impact of the new measure will come down to how active the US is in enforcing their threats against fina...
10/23/2025

Ultimately, the impact of the new measure will come down to how active the US is in enforcing their threats against financial institutions who do business with Rosneft and Lukoil. The Biden administration chose not to impose sanctions on both companies over concerns that such a move could drive up energy costs at a time when rising inflation was finally being tamed.

Experts say that Trump’s campaign promise to keep petrol prices low and manage the cost of living crisis could dilute the impact of the new sanctions, if they start to dramatically affect the oil price.

The measures taken against Rosneft and Lukoil mark the first time the US has sanctioned Russia since Donald Trump’s return to office in January

Simplicius:Yesterday, two near-simultaneous acts of sabotage saw explosions ripping through oil refineries in both Hunga...
10/23/2025

Simplicius:

Yesterday, two near-simultaneous acts of sabotage saw explosions ripping through oil refineries in both Hungary and Romania. In Hungary it was the MOL in Százhalombatta, which reportedly receives Russian oil, while in Romania the Petrotel-Lukoil, a subsidiary of the Russian parent company.

As one commentator writes, these attacks came literally hours after the European Council had just approved to ban Russian gas starting in 2026.

Yesterday, two near-simultaneous acts of sabotage saw explosions ripping through oil refineries in both Hungary and Romania.

In the latest clear sign that NATO is seeking to build-up Ukraine's military infrastructure as well as aerial defenses f...
10/23/2025

In the latest clear sign that NATO is seeking to build-up Ukraine's military infrastructure as well as aerial defenses for the long-haul, and as much as decades into the future, Ukraine has signed a letter of intent with Swedish government to acquire a huge batch of advanced fighter jets over the next ten to fifteen years.

Saab Gripen E seen by many as a cheaper competitor to the F-35...

If the war in Gaza had dramatic consequences across the Middle East, overturning long-held assumptions, resetting the ge...
10/20/2025

If the war in Gaza had dramatic consequences across the Middle East, overturning long-held assumptions, resetting the geopolitical map and provoking massive shifts in public opinion, any durable peace is likely to have equally momentous effects.

Trump’s 20-point plan is forcing Middle East rivals to set aside differences and collaborate after years of competition

The war in the air has become increasingly significant in the past 18 or so months as the conflict on the ground has bec...
10/18/2025

The war in the air has become increasingly significant in the past 18 or so months as the conflict on the ground has become bogged down.

War in the air is becoming increasingly significant as conflict on the ground becomes bogged down

Ukraine hit Russian energy sites with US helpThe US has for months been helping Ukraine mount long-range strikes on Russ...
10/16/2025

Ukraine hit Russian energy sites with US help

The US has for months been helping Ukraine mount long-range strikes on Russian energy facilities, in what officials say is a co-ordinated effort to weaken Vladimir Putin’s economy and force him to the negotiating table.

American intelligence shared with Kyiv has enabled strikes on important Russian energy assets including oil refineries far beyond the frontline, according to multiple Ukrainian and US officials familiar with the campaign.

The previously unreported support has intensified since midsummer and has been crucial in helping Ukraine carry out attacks that Joe Biden’s White House discouraged. Kyiv’s strikes have driven up energy prices in Russia and prompted Moscow to cut diesel exports and import fuel.

The intelligence sharing is the latest sign that Trump has deepened his support for Ukraine as his frustration with Russia has grown.

The shift came after a phone call between Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelenskyy in July, when the FT reported the US president asked whether Ukraine could strike Moscow if Washington provided long-range weapons.
Trump signalled his backing for a strategy to “make them [Russians] feel the pain” and compel the Kremlin to negotiate, said the two people briefed on the call. The White House later said Trump was “merely asking a question, not encouraging further killing”.

The US intelligence helps Kyiv shape route planning, altitude, timing and mission decisions, enabling Ukraine’s long-range, one-way attack drones to evade Russian air defences, said the officials familiar with the matter.

Three people familiar with the operation said Washington was closely involved in all stages of planning. A US official said Ukraine selected the targets for long-range strikes and Washington then provided intelligence on the sites vulnerabilities.

But others involved and briefed on the operations said the US had also set out target priorities for the Ukrainians. One of them described Kyiv’s drone force as the “instrument” for Washington to undermine Russia’s economy and push Putin towards a settlement.

Trump has been open about his disappointment with Putin since he rolled out the red carpet for his Russian counterpart at an Alaska summit that made little tangible progress. This was a factor in Trump’s shift in support of deeper strikes, the people said.

Washington has long shared intelligence with Kyiv to assist in attacks on Russian military targets in occupied areas of Ukraine, and to provide advanced warning of Russian missile and drone strikes. The Biden administration approved strikes with US Himars and Atacms missiles inside a Russian region bordering Ukraine after North Korea deployed troops there to bolster Moscow’s forces.

But the US has not acknowledged a direct role in Ukraine’s strikes on Russian energy facilities. Washington has long remained cautious about actions that could escalate the war and draw it more directly into conflict with Moscow.

The growing operational support from the Trump administration starkly contrasts with earlier in the US president’s second term, when he briefly halted intelligence sharing and military aid to Kyiv to pressure it into peace talks with Moscow.

Zelenskyy declined to speak about US intelligence’s role in his army’s deep strikes inside Russia in a briefing in Kyiv on Wednesday. But he said Ukraine was “working with US intelligence, primarily to defend ourselves”, referring to the Patriot, Nasams and Iris-T air defence systems provided by western partners.

Ukraine’s recent success with deep strikes was mostly because of technological upgrades to drones and increased domestic production, which has allowed Kyiv to launch more at once. “Our drones, drone-missiles and some missiles are getting better: more uses, greater production,” he said.

Most of the deep strikes are conducted by Ukraine’s SBU security service and the Unmanned Systems Forces branch of the country’s Armed Forces. But other intelligence and military units also play roles in the attacks.

Zelenskyy said Ukraine’s Fire Point and Liutyi long-range drones — sometimes up to 300 in a single operation — had led the swarm attacks. But Ukrainian forces had also recently fired domestically-produced Neptune and Flamingo missiles at targets inside Russia.

On Saturday, the SBU said its elite Alpha unit’s long-range drones had successfully hit the Bashneft-UNPZ oil refinery in Ufa, some 1,400 kilometres from Ukraine. The plant is one of the largest refineries in Russia, supplying fuel and lubricants to the Russian army.

It marked the third strike on energy facilities in Russia’s Bashkortostan region in the past month.

The SBU told the FT its “long-range strikes are aimed at destroying the enemy’s military potential — including its economic capabilities”. It added Kyiv would work to increase the number and breadth of strikes within Russia.

A White House official said the war “never would have happened” under a Trump presidency and that he was “trying to get it stopped”. The Office of the Director of National Intelligence and the Department of Defense declined to comment.
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov earlier this month said it was “obvious” the US and Nato were providing intelligence to Ukraine “on a regular basis” including for strikes on Russian energy targets.

A Tomahawk missile launches vertically from the deck of the USS Preble (DDG 88) during a training exercise at sea.

Trump has not decided whether to provide long-range missiles to Ukraine, including Tomahawk cruise missiles, saying on Monday he wanted to find out more about how they would be used.

Zelenskyy on Wednesday said the Tomahawk option was being considered and it “could strengthen Ukraine and sober the Russians up a bit”.

Soon after the July call, the four people familiar with the Ukrainian deep strike drone operation said US intelligence with a new level of specificity began flowing to Kyiv. That information has allowed Kyiv to better map Russian air defences and plot strike routes.

The tempo of Ukraine’s strikes on Russian oil and gas facilities and pipelines that underpin Moscow’s war effort escalated dramatically in August and September. The damage forced Moscow to curtail diesel exports and increased its reliance on imported fuel.

At least 16 of the country’s 38 oil refineries have been struck, some repeatedly, disrupting more than 1mn barrels a day of refining capacity, according to Energy Aspects, a research group. Russian social media videos, verified by the Financial Times and independent analysts, have shown numerous large oil and gas facilities in flames.

Zelenskyy on Wednesday said Moscow was importing petrol — “notably from Belarus and China” — and had restricted exports. Russia likely lost up to 20 per cent of fuel production capacity because of the Ukrainian strikes, he added.

Trump administration has supported Kyiv’s operations since summer in co-ordinated push to weaken Moscow

Yet, pressed by the Baltic countries—including through the European Union’s de facto foreign minister, Kaja Kallas—whose...
10/16/2025

Yet, pressed by the Baltic countries—including through the European Union’s de facto foreign minister, Kaja Kallas—whose shared Russophobia far outranges their combined military capabilities, allied commentators and officials have been engaging in crazy talk and proposing reckless actions, such as shooting down Russian aircraft, which could trigger armed and even nuclear conflict. Moscow has long relied on tactical nuclear weapons to fill its conventional gap with the US and has far more at stake than NATO members in the current war. Full-scale conflict would mean ruling nuclear dice.

The allies spread kindling for conflict by running an expanding proxy war against Russia. Enabling ever greater strikes even deeper in Russia drenched the ongoing combat with gasoline. Now allied arsonists, concentrated in states likely to do the least fighting, are demanding that multiple governments target Russian planes, essentially lighting matches and tossing them onto the accumulated mess. Never mind the explosion that would almost certainly occur.

Do European and American policymakers want a real war with Russia?

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