Jack Drake - Western CT Weather

08/01/2025

A common question as of late...

If you stepped outside at all in New England the last couple of days, you probably noticed the cold, and a moment later the wind. Winds gusted 40 to 50 mph over much of Connecticut on Tuesday, resulting in single digit wind chills and even isolated tree and power problems. The maximum wind gusts thr...

08/01/2025

Cold and blustery is the theme this week. We will see near zero wind chills at the bus stop Wednesday, and we dip below zero for wind chills in many spots Thursday morning. Bundle up!

07/01/2025

Increasing confidence in a weaker and more southern solution for our weekend storm. The GFS has come in line with the European model over the course of the last 2 to 3 runs. Both models still show about a 1.0 to 3.0 inch solution, however, which appears as though it will start Saturday morning and last into Saturday afternoon.

07/01/2025

The hawk is up - here are the maximum wind gusts across the region so far. Isolated tree and power issues are being reported.

07/01/2025

The wind is howling out there! Check out this stoplight that blew off its support cable on Exit 8 in Danbury. 💨

📸 Chris Kasinskas

07/01/2025

Tracking a winter storm that will move off the East Coast by this weekend. How much snow could we get?

07/01/2025

Forecast Updates: ❄️🥶💨☃️

1. Watch for slick spots tonight and tomorrow morning as any melt will freeze solid with temperatures dipping to 13-18F later tonight. Winds are beginning to pick up as well.

2. Windy and cold for Tuesday - and I mean windy. I’m almost surprised we don’t have a WIND ADVISORY as I’m confident we see gusts 30 to 40 mph with some areas as high as 45 mph. A flurry (like actual flurry) is possible into Litchfield County but most will see partly to mostly sunny skies. Highs will be in upper 20s to low 30s.

3. Similar conditions on Wednesday but slightly less windy… it will still feel windy though with gusts to 30 mph.

4. VERY WINDY CONDITIONS RETURN AGAIN on Thursday with highs only in the middle to upper 20s. Winds could gust to 45 mph. Wind chills could be in the single digits to near zero at the bus stop.

5. What about this weekend Jack? I’m hear 2 feet plus??? LIVE AT 9:30PM to discuss our next storm system for this weekend! 😃

06/01/2025

Storm Summary: 1/6/25

Any residual flurries have ended as peaks of sun even popped out here in Western CT before sunset. This storm was very frustrating from a forecasting perspective. We did have some mid-level forcing work further north than modeled, but largely the HRRR I had been showing the last couple of days did okay for CT. I was surprised the steadier snow made it into Litchfield County, and totals around Danbury were more of a coating (~0.5”) than a dusting. Interestingly, our snow band stole some energy from the snow in NJ where they got much less than forecast.

I ended up with about 0.6” here in Stony Hill. The issue was not the snow totals, however, as it was the road conditions. For this, I would like to share a few points of consideration:

1. Previous rain events had washed away any salt. With just a dusting forecast, little to no pre-treatment was applied.

2. Temperatures were around 25 degrees, which allowed initial snow to melt and then refreeze as snow rates got steadier.

3. The sun angle is quite low this time of year, not allowing paved areas to absorb as much daytime heating.

All of this combined to create about 2 hours of hazardous conditions where there were a number of spin-outs and collisions.

In the end, this storm was evidence that sometimes, even with the best technology, we still don’t quite have the resolution with forecasting to be able to differentiate between 0.2” and no impacts and 0.5” and significant (albeit brief) hazardous travel. If I forecast 3.0” and we got 3.3” it would be a great forecast, but that same delta at a smaller magnitude makes all the difference. This is in no way a complaint by the way, just a communication of forecast capability.

Thanks for following along. 😎

06/01/2025

Dusting of Doom

06/01/2025

Just measured 0.3” on my deck. Apparently our area just can’t handle it. Drive safe and watch for slick spots. Snow rates will begin to taper off over the next hour or so. ❄️

06/01/2025

Radar Update: 11:35AM

Getting some steadier snow showers into the area now with driveways and roads covered. Darker greens indicate areas of steadier snow on current radar. Starting to get reports of a few slick spots, so we’ll have to watch how this band progresses, especially from Peekskill to Danbury to Southbury and Ridgefield to Redding to Trumbull. There could be a coating of snow in some of these areas north or where it was modeled.

Anyways, watch for slick spots through midday. Activity will lighten as we head through early afternoon, and dissipate after 3PM.

06/01/2025

Flurries are starting to fly across the area. We are on track for a dusting, with potentially a coating in spots especially in extreme SW CT. Let me know what you see! ❄️

06/01/2025

No real changes for tomrrow. We are on the northern fringe of the system where dry air will be inhibiting snow growth. Despite this, dynamics favor at least some flurry activity across Southern CT and the Hudson Valley in my opinion. Extreme SW CT has the best chance at accumulations closer to 0.5 inches. Probably splitting hairs and could just call it flurries all the way around but I know everyone loves a snow map.

And yes… still tracking the more substantial storm threat next weekend. Likely will do a LIVE tomorrow night around 9:30PM to discuss the setup.

05/01/2025

Short range models continue to bring in some light snow and flurries to SW CT tomorrow. Places like Long Island, NYC, and Southern Westchester that have mainly escaped the snow maps could be in line for up to an inch. A solid coating is possible into Greenwich and Stamford with more a fine coating everywhere else. Remember this is high ratio, dry and fluffy stuff. Latest HRRR below has the activity mainly between 12PM and 4PM. As of now still expecting minimal impacts in CT, but the afternoon commute could be snowy if commute in or around the city.

05/01/2025

Forecast Updates: 🥶❄️☀️💨🌬️

1. Another cold and blustery day expected on Sunday with highs in the lower 30s. There will likely be sun to start, but clouds will increase during the afternoon. Wind chills will be in the teens much of the day with gusts to around 30 mph possible.

2. Continuing to monitor our Monday system. Some of the short range guidance this evening continued to show a dusting into CT with perhaps a bit more (maybe an inch) in extreme SW CT and Southern Westchester County. In this type of situation we’ll just have to watch the short range trends and see where the Northern fringe of the storm sets up. Best chance of flurries or light snow seems like 10AM ro 4PM Monday.

3. A cold flow continues in behind the storm system Monday night and Tuesday. A tight pressure gradient will yield gusty winds Tuesday with gusts 30 to 40 mph possible. Also can’t rule out a snow shower, especially during the day as a weak wave moves through. Highs will be in the upper 20s.

4. Cold and blustery weather continues Wednesday and Thursday, with a chance of snow showers Thursday to go along with another weak piece of energy rotating through. Generally expect partly cloudy skies though with temperatures in the upper 20s for highs. Gusts to around 30 mph expected Wednesday and 40 mph Thursday.

5. Our next system of note approaches next weekend with a winter storm possible. While it is too far out for confidence (see previous post) this is certainly something to watch moving forward.

Have a great night! 😎

04/01/2025

With cold air surging in and our Monday storm mostly missing, many are asking about the next subsequent snow threats. While there is a window for winter storms next weekend into the following week, we are really too far out for details or confidence. As a general reminder, please be careful of the source on any of the maps you see shared on the internet. As an example, the most recent 12Z GFS has big hits past 7 days. While it is fair to say we will likely need to monitor winter storm threats, any single run snow map does not add much value at that range. Quite frankly, weather models and forecasts really aren’t great past 5 days. Makes terrific clickbait though.

04/01/2025

Better confidence this morning on a miss with our Monday event as the system slides JUST south. Really solid storm for Virgina, DC and the Delmarva. A dusting of powered sugar is still possible at some point Monday afternoon. Cold and blustery weather continues until further notice.

03/01/2025

Still watching Monday as we ride the line between light snow and no snow. There remains some room to wiggle this storm to the north a bit in my opinion, but even if we do, only about a C-2 of arctic dust looks would be the most likely scenario.