TRT World Research Centre

TRT World Research Centre Established in 2017, TRT World Research Centre conducts in-depth analysis of current affairs.

TRT World Research Centre is a non-profit, research and policy institute based in Istanbul, Turkey. Our Vision is to promote equality – the inalienable rights of all peoples, celebrate socio-cultural diversity encourage sustainable development, environmentalism, work for global good governance and economic justice. Our mission is to conduct top-quality, in-depth research, while being cognizant of

the context in which learning and sharing takes place, then offer solid policy recommendations, both locally and globally.

The Iran war is revealing a critical shift in modern conflict: power is no longer just about military force, but the abi...
08/04/2026

The Iran war is revealing a critical shift in modern conflict: power is no longer just about military force, but the ability to disrupt global connectivity. Chokepoints, not battlefields, are becoming the real frontlines of warfare.

The Strait of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandeb are not maritime transit routes—they are strategic pressure points. Even limited disruptions can trigger global energy shocks, supply chain breakdowns, and inflationary spillover.

Iran’s approach highlights a new doctrine: weaponising interdependence. By targeting infrastructure and trade flows, relatively contained actions can produce disproportionate systemic effects.

The Houthis exemplify this model. Low-cost, high-impact disruption of maritime traffic shows how non-state actors can shape global markets without full-scale escalation. Read more: https://t.co/Hr4uuJWZd5

As the war against Iran by the U.S. and Israel escalates, the Gulf is no longer just a geopolitical flashpoint; it is be...
26/03/2026

As the war against Iran by the U.S. and Israel escalates, the Gulf is no longer just a geopolitical flashpoint; it is becoming a structural fault line for global trade. With the Strait of Hormuz under threat and energy routes disrupted, the world is confronting a new era of supply chain vulnerability.

Recent escalations show how easily connectivity can be weaponised. From Red Sea disruptions by the Houthis after October 7 to surging oil prices and collapsing port revenues, chokepoints are no longer reliable. They are, instead, liabilities.

This is where Türkiye steps in. The Türkiye–Iraq Development Road offers a faster, cheaper, and more resilient alternative, cutting transit times to 15 days and reducing costs by ~20%. A corridor not just of trade, but of strategic necessity.

But infrastructure alone is not enough. Sustainable connectivity requires a new security paradigm, one built on regional cooperation, economic interdependence, and diplomacy-driven coordination among actors like Türkiye, Iraq, Qatar, and the UAE. The ongoing war showcases the necessity of a new security architecture based on a cooperative framework.

Read More: https://researchcentre.trtworld.com/publications/analysis/rerouting-risk-turkiye-and-the-future-of-gulf-connectivity/

While Washington retains escalation dominance in the Middle East, Europe is left to bear the disproportionate consequenc...
26/03/2026

While Washington retains escalation dominance in the Middle East, Europe is left to bear the disproportionate consequences of a war it neither initiated nor was consulted on. The U.S.–Israeli campaign against Iran has exposed a structural asymmetry at the heart of the transatlantic relationship, leaving European capitals in a state of institutional paralysis.

While Washington retains escalation dominance in the Middle East, Europe is left to bear the disproportionate consequences of a war it neither initiated nor was consulted on. The U.S.– Israeli campaign against Iran has exposed a structural asymmetry at the heart of the transatlantic relationship, leaving European capitals in a state of institutional paralysis.

The Iran war reveals that the era of Europe passively benefiting from global crises is over. To regain strategic agency, the continent must move beyond the selective application of legal norms and commit to a consistent, unified foreign policy. Read more: https://t.co/f4FXgNkUwQ

Türkiye in Focus | Geopolitical volatility is accelerating as the Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East theatre of c...
13/03/2026

Türkiye in Focus | Geopolitical volatility is accelerating as the Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East theatre of conflict converge. From intercepting missiles in national airspace to the strategic deployment of F-16s in the TRNC, Ankara is navigating a high-stakes regional realignment to safeguard its sovereignty.

The regional status quo has shifted significantly. Greece’s decision to station F-16s at Paphos Airport has triggered a direct response, with Türkiye deploying six F-16s to the TRNC. Although primarily aimed at protecting TRNC airspace, the move also reflects concerns over the emerging alignment between Athens, Nicosia, and Tel Aviv, which is perceived as marginalising Turkish maritime and energy interests.

Ankara’s primary objective remains regional stability through proactive de-escalation:
• Missile Interceptions: A second Iranian missile was intercepted by NATO systems in Turkish airspace this week, prompting formal diplomatic protests.
• Regional Diplomacy: President Erdoğan has prioritised regional peace, urging all actors to avoid "fratricidal strife" and prevent the war from spreading.
• Strategic Neutrality: Ankara welcomed the decision by Kurdish authorities in Iraq to remain non-involved in the Iran conflict to ensure broader regional harmony.

While major regional developments call for strategic attention, the domestic agenda remains dominated by the “İmamoğlu case.” The complex legal process—likely to continue for some time despite efforts to expedite it—has constrained the main opposition’s ability to formulate proactive policies, whether on national priorities or pressing geopolitical issues.

Technical Note: The İmamoğlu trial involves 407 defendants with 45 days of continuous hearings. This massive legal undertaking is a significant item on the national agenda, occurring simultaneously with heightened tensions on Türkiye’s borders.

Read the full analysis: https://researchcentre.trtworld.com/publications/turkiye-in-focus/turkiye-in-focus-84/

Modern wars of aggression increasingly weaponize the language of liberation.What happens when the language of women’s em...
13/03/2026

Modern wars of aggression increasingly weaponize the language of liberation.

What happens when the language of women’s empowerment collides with the killing of women and children? The bombing of a primary school in Minab forces a brutal question about the gap between wartime propaganda and reality.

The tragedy unfolded days before International Women’s Day.
At the same time, images of Israeli female fighter pilots articipating in strikes against Iran circulated widely online—celebrated as symbols of gender equality within military institutions.

But the juxtaposition exposes a deeper paradox: Bombing innocent civilians is not a pathway to women’s rights.

The Minab strike also highlights how responsibility narratives emerge during conflict:

• US officials suggested Iran may have struck the school itself.
• Video evidence circulated online showing what appears to be a US-made Tomahawk cruise missile.
• Munitions experts analysing the footage said the weapon’s features are consistent with a Tomahawk.
• The footage was later verified by The Washington Post.
In war, the first casualty is often the truth.

The Minab tragedy illustrates a broader dynamic scholars call “imperial feminism” or “femonationalism” - the use of women’s rights discourse to legitimise geopolitical projects.

When liberation is delivered through missiles, the line between emancipation and destruction becomes dangerously thin.
Read the full analysis: https://researchcentre.trtworld.com/publications/analysis/when-liberation-bombs-minab-feminist-rhetoric-and-the-moral-contradictions-of-modern-war/

Iran After Khamanei: Power, Factions, and the IRGC🎙️ We’ve just released a new episode of Tipping Point.In this episode,...
06/03/2026

Iran After Khamanei: Power, Factions, and the IRGC

🎙️ We’ve just released a new episode of Tipping Point.

In this episode, we examine the volatile intersection of power, survival, and succession in Iranian politics. Following the unprecedented US–Israeli strike that killed Ali Khamenei, we ask a deeper question: what does this rupture reveal about the power structures of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and the scramble for leadership inside Iran?

🎧 Now available on Spotify:
https://open.spotify.com/episode/2lCdiXWHv6A7v5wpeuAe6q?si=WuGh3-CCSJOKMiyDyFjrfA

🎧 And available on Apple Podcasts:
https://podcasts.apple.com/tr/podcast/tipping-point/id1864146631?l=tr&i=1000753345419k

The Trump administration’s intensified campaign against Iran is reshaping the geopolitical map of the Middle East. But t...
06/03/2026

The Trump administration’s intensified campaign against Iran is reshaping the geopolitical map of the Middle East. But the most critical fallout isn’t just military, it is the spectre of phased displacement threatening the European Union's periphery, from Greek-administrated Cyprus to Spain.

Why the sudden diplomatic urgency between Ankara and Brussels? The "spillover" threshold has been crossed. Recent regional tensions, including suspected drone activity near European infrastructure in Greek-administrated Cyprus, compress the timeline between conflict escalation and the need to securitise border-management planning.

The mechanics of potential mobility are complex and phased:

- Direct, immediate flows to Europe are unlikely; regional "pooling" in neighbouring areas is the expected primary dynamic.

- Vulnerable populations, particularly Afghan nationals previously hosted in Iran, face severe compounding economic and security pressures.

- Onward, secondary mobility will depend entirely on the resilience of regional governance and livelihood availability.

Ultimately, managing this potential Middle East spillover relies on adapting the existing Türkiye–EU migration framework rather than inventing new structures under pressure. Preparedness in an era of heightened escalation is not alarmism; it is essential risk management.

Read the full analysis: https://researchcentre.trtworld.com/publications/analysis/managing-spillover-turkiye-eu-and-the-iran-crisis/

The assassination of Khamenei in a joint US-Israel strike has triggered a succession crisis within Iran's governance. Th...
03/03/2026

The assassination of Khamenei in a joint US-Israel strike has triggered a succession crisis within Iran's governance. The true arbiter of the state's future will not be civilian politicians, but the military elite.

Historically, earlier succession turbulence within the Islamic Republic invariably consolidate power among conservative, security-driven factions.

Following the sudden loss of unifying figures, the regime's meticulous succession planning has been affected amid severe external aggression.

The scramble for leadership exposes critical institutional shifts:

- The 88-member Assembly of Experts has navigated this process only once, in 1989.
- De facto state management has already transferred to security insiders.
- The IRGC, retaining up to 190,000 troops, will act as the ultimate kingmaker to protect its monopolies.

The next leader inherits a state grappling with damaged command structures, weakened regional proxies, and overt calls for regime change from Israel and the US. Leadership is now about systemic survival.

Read the full analysis: https://researchcentre.trtworld.com/publications/analysis/after-khamenei-succession-or-succession-crisis/

The War on Iran reflects a structural power matrix shaped by energy geopolitics, alliance systems, lobbying influence, a...
02/03/2026

The War on Iran reflects a structural power matrix shaped by energy geopolitics, alliance systems, lobbying influence, and the renewed global debate surrounding the Epstein Files.

Recent U.S. moves involving Venezuela and Iran indicate a multilayered strategic approach rather than isolated crisis responses.

This architecture combines:

- Energy corridor leverage

- Strategic competition with China

- Institutional alliance obligations

- Domestic lobbying ecosystems

- Intelligence-linked influence structures

Policy formation is occurring within this integrated system.

Structural indicators shaping the current geopolitical environment:

- Venezuela holds ~17% of global proven oil reserves.

- A $2bn oil export deal followed within days of political change.

- The Strait of Hormuz carries ~20% of global oil & LNG flows.

- Iran exports ~1.6 million barrels/day, largely to China.

- Brent crude rose over 13% during escalation.

- U.S. aid to Israel exceeds $260bn since WWII.

- In 2024, 361 of 365 AIPAC-backed candidates won.

- In early 2026, 3+ million DOJ records tied to the Epstein Files re-entered public debate, intensifying scrutiny of elite leverage networks.

Energy security, lobbying power, and information control intersect.

The Iran confrontation demonstrates how contemporary power politics operates through overlapping systems: resource corridors, alliance dependence, financial influence, and reputational vulnerability exposed by disclosures such as the Epstein Files.

Read the full analysis: https://researchcentre.trtworld.com/publications/analysis/americas-captured-sword-blackmail-energy-and-the-war-on-iran/

Israel's latest military strikes on Iran during US talks signal a bold geopolitical manoeuvre. What does this mean for r...
28/02/2026

Israel's latest military strikes on Iran during US talks signal a bold geopolitical manoeuvre. What does this mean for regional stability?

Historically, Israel has balanced its security strategy between deterrence and direct action. This latest strike indicates a potential shift towards more overt military engagements.

Our archive explores Israel's transition from deterrence to a more aggressive stance, highlighting past instances and the underlying strategic calculations.

Read our full analysis: https://researchcentre.trtworld.com/publications/analysis/israels-regional-gambit-from-deterrence-to-dangerous-overreach/

Read the news report: https://www.trtworld.com/article/66c1eb11e88f

Recent attempts to revive debates on secularism often overlook the broader Türkiye reality of the past two decades. Whil...
28/02/2026

Recent attempts to revive debates on secularism often overlook the broader Türkiye reality of the past two decades. While a 168-member manifesto warns of immediate threats, the persistence of these narratives suggests a move to reignite historical polarisations rather than reflecting the country's evolving social fabric.

The timing of this specific declaration coincided with Ramadan, a period defined by spiritual reflection and communal harmony for the vast majority of society. Analysts view the revival of highly charged ideological debates at this juncture as reflecting a disconnect from the country’s present social realities.

Beyond internal discourse, Ankara’s regional strategy remains anchored in the preservation of sovereign borders:

- Defence Clarification: The Ministry of National Defence has categorically denied speculative reports of interventions within Iranian territory.

- Regional Stability: Türkiye prioritises Iran’s territorial integrity to prevent new conflicts and regional destabilisation.

- Strategic Consistency: The "Terror-Free Türkiye" initiative underlines a preference for stability and the strengthening of the domestic front.

Türkiye’s diplomatic framework rests on the dual pillars of domestic balance and regional peace. By rejecting interventionist narratives and focusing on the sanctity of sovereign borders, Ankara seeks to insulate the region from external spillover.

Read the full analysis: https://researchcentre.trtworld.com/publications/turkiye-in-focus/turkiye-in-focus-82/

A historic consensus has emerged in the Grand National Assembly of Türkiye, signalling a structural shift toward a "Terr...
21/02/2026

A historic consensus has emerged in the Grand National Assembly of Türkiye, signalling a structural shift toward a "Terror-Free" era. With 42 votes in favour, a parliamentary commission has aligned the AK Party, MHP, DEM Party, and CHP behind a unified national mandate that transcends traditional party-political divides.

This initiative, branded as the "Türkiye Model," intentionally bypasses external third-party oversight in favour of national resources and parliamentary legitimacy. It frames internal consolidation as a prerequisite for the region’s future, positioning Türkiye as the vanguard of integrative policies rooted in shared history and civilisation.

The National Solidarity, Brotherhood, and Democracy Commission report outlines a rigorous path for systemic renewal:

Broad Consensus: 42 votes in favour, with only two rejections and one abstention.

Political Alignment: Support spans the ideological spectrum, indicating a collective democratic will.

Strategic Reintegration: Proposals for a bespoke legal framework to manage the transition and reintegration of former members.

Constitutional Vision: While outside its formal remit, the commission flagged the necessity for a new constitution as the foundation for broader systemic renewal.

As the focus shifts to the legislative chamber, the challenge lies in balancing social peace with the public demand for justice. This process is framed not as an exercise in impunity, but as the dawn of lasting domestic harmony.

Read the full analysis: https://lnkd.in/dyacEWSU

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