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Novices, take heart! Amateurs placing bets in their March Madness office pool may have just as good a shot at winning as...
31/05/2023

Novices, take heart! Amateurs placing bets in their March Madness office pool may have just as good a shot at winning as sports fanatics who know all the minutia, new research suggests.

"Sports gamblers seem to believe themselves the cleverest of all gamblers. They think that with experience and knowledge — such as player's statistics, manager's habits, weather conditions and stadium capacity — they can predict the outcome of a game better than the average person," study co-author Pinhas Dannon, a psychiatrist at Tel Aviv University in Israel, said in a statement.

fact, the two players who performed the best, correctly guessing seven out of the 16 scores, had never been fans of the ...
31/05/2023

fact, the two players who performed the best, correctly guessing seven out of the 16 scores, had never been fans of the game.

The findings suggest that in addition to perhaps holding back on smugness during the office pool for the March Madness basketball tournament, savvy sports gamblers may not do well in standard therapy for gambling addiction.

"Casino gamblers Casino gamblers are more appropriately characterized as obsessives, because they have less belief in themselves, and know that they will lose sooner or later. But they gamble anyway because they feel they need to," Dannon said in a statement.

However, "the game has 10 to the power of 160 different situations," meaning it has many, many more computational possib...
22/05/2023

However, "the game has 10 to the power of 160 different situations," meaning it has many, many more computational possibilities than Go. As a result, the program can't calculate the perfect Nash equilibrium solution, but must instead approximate.

In the past, that's been a stumbling block. Libratus was involved in a poker tournament in 2015 and couldn't beat the humans, with the match ending in a statistical tie. However, the souped-up version of Libratus used in the recent tournament has a better end-game solving strategy, Sandholm said.

The tournament
For the "Brains vs. Artificial Intelligence" tournament, four of the world's best poker players faced off one-on-one against Libratus in 120,000 hands of poker. At stake was a $200,000 pot, which the human players received even if they lost.

And yet, in many ways, Texas Hold'em is even harder, said Tuomas Sandholm, a computer scientist at Carnegie Mellon Unive...
22/05/2023

And yet, in many ways, Texas Hold'em is even harder, said Tuomas Sandholm, a computer scientist at Carnegie Mellon University who helped design Libratus and helped organize the tournament. (In Heads-Up Texas Hold'em, two players each hold two cards and then have to make the best hand from the five cards that are eventually placed face-up on the table over several rounds of play. After each card is turned, players can call, or match, another player's bet; raise the bet; or fold their cards, or give up.)

It turns out, cracking this type of play may be even trickier than mastering Go, where each player knows the other's position perfectly. [5 Intriguing Uses for Artificial Intelligence (That Aren't Killer Robots)]

"In incomplete-information games like poker, it's much harder," Sandholm told Live Science.

The outcome of each spin of a roulette wheel is independent of the spin before it. The ball landing on red on one spin d...
20/05/2023

The outcome of each spin of a roulette wheel is independent of the spin before it. The ball landing on red on one spin does not affect the probability of red on the next spin, or of black. Coin tosses are the same.

In the case of French or European Roulette, de rigueur at Le Grande, the chance of spinning black, on any given spin, is 18/37. That means the chances of spinning 26 blacks in a row are 1 in 136,823,184, exactly the same chances of spinning 26 reds in a row, or any other 26 black/red combination.

However, because we have evolved in a world in which most sequential events are causally related, we have evolved processes that help us recognise those relationships. As such, most of us have difficulty in interpreting sequences of independent events as independent.

If you said black, you’d have won (the wheel eventually spun 26 blacks in a row).If you said “red” you’ve have exhibited...
20/05/2023

If you said black, you’d have won (the wheel eventually spun 26 blacks in a row).

If you said “red” you’ve have exhibited a behaviour known as the “gambler’s fallacy”, a phenomenon which, according to a paper published today in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS), can be narrowed down to a specific part of the brain – the insular cortex.

Odds and ends
The outcome of each spin of a roulette wheel is independent of the spin before it. The ball landing on red on one spin does not affect the probability of red on the next spin, or of black. Coin tosses are the same.

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