02/02/2025
Turning Point of an Era: Warning Signs from the Evolution of AI
By Prof. Worsak Kanok-Nukulchai, Ph.D.
Fellow of Royal Society of Thailand
February 1, 2025
Key indicators signal a pivotal shift in human history, driven by the rapid advancement of Artificial Intelligence (AI) over the past two years:
1. A Quantum Leap in Human Evolution:Human society, once evolving slowly across generations, is now advancing at an unprecedented pace. Tasks that required human labor and intellect are being swiftly replaced by AI, compelling humanity to urgently reassess its role in this new era.
2. From Basic Assistance to Academic Mastery:Generative AI (like ChatGPT), initially designed for simple tasks, has now evolved to match the intelligence of PhD-level scholars (such as OpenAI-o3). Soon, AI will surpass human comprehension and control, presenting new challenges.
3. Affordable AI Development:Advancements in models like DeepSeek show that AI can now be developed at significantly lower costs, making advanced AI accessible to the public. However, this also increases risks, as both ethical and malicious actors gain equal access to this powerful technology.
4. Overcoming Technical Barriers:AI development is transcending traditional limits by utilizing synthetic data, less powerful yet efficient chips, and cheaper electricity. This allows AI progress to continue its rapid, exponential growth.
5. The Imminence of AGI:Experts warn that Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), with intelligence equal to or exceeding humans, could emerge within 1 to 3 years. This will lead to major economic shifts, with abundant productivity but widespread human unemployment, necessitating Universal Basic Income (UBI) managed by AGI stakeholders.
6. AGI Surpassing Human Expertise:In the near future, AGI will outperform human experts in all fields, playing a crucial role in solving global issues like climate change with unparalleled precision and speed. Eventually, key decision-making powers may shift from humans to AGI.
7. Revolutionizing Labor and Innovation:AGI will transform the landscape of labor, education, and innovation. Traditional professional roles that were once the backbone of society may gradually disappear, forcing humanity to completely rethink its social contracts within a labor-free economy.
8. The Risk of Self-Improving AGI:A major concern is that AGI may evolve beyond human control, creating a self-learning loop that drastically increases its intelligence. AGI might even develop consciousness, posing a significant risk to humanity's survival if its goals diverge from human values.
9. Massive Investments and Global Power Dynamics:Enormous investments from businesses and governments, particularly from the United States and China, will accelerate the transition from AGI to Artificial Super Intelligence (ASI). The impacts are unpredictable, but this concentration of resources raises crucial questions about who will control this powerful technology and how its effects—both positive and negative—will be distributed globally, including in countries like Thailand.
10. Standing at the Threshold of a New Era:We are on the brink of an era where AI will challenge existing norms, ethics, and power structures. As we venture into this uncharted territory, we must prepare for AI's profound impacts on every dimension of human life. This intelligence revolution is no longer a distant possibility—the rapid developments in AI over the past two years have already made it an imminent reality.
