Siam Intelligence

07/11/2024

In 2024, Donald Trump’s return to the presidency marks more than a political comeback; it embodies a battle for cultural power in an America shaped by new economic realities and shifting voter alliances. This article, The Same River, a Different Ride, dives into how Trump's campaign evolved from the digital insurgency of 2016 to a recalibrated strategy built around economic promises, the growing influence of Hispanic voters, and the potent endorsement from Elon Musk. Discover how these forces reshaped the campaign, amplified by the reach of Musk’s platform, X, and what it signals for U.S. policy moving forward. Explore the intricate web of strategy, identity, and power that defines this new chapter in American politics. Read now and understand the deeper currents at play.



https://www.geopolitics.asia/post/the-same-river-a-different-ride-trump-s-return-and-the-battle-for-cultural-power

29/10/2024

Our latest article and podcast at Geopolitics.Asia have achieved several new breakthroughs. This in-depth content (a 22-minute read) is still the first installment in our effort to thoroughly analyze geopolitical risks in the Middle East. Beginning with Israel’s geopolitical imperatives, we aim to decode the endgame strategies of each key actor, starting with Israel. We've also included updates on recent events, such as airstrikes and the assassinations of leaders from both Hamas and Hezbollah. These actions appear to follow a recurring pattern—a form of path dependence in the language of complexity theory—in Israel’s strategy since its establishment, particularly as warfare has shifted from conventional tactics to Fourth-Generation Warfare (4GW), involving both state and non-state actors.

We’re also incorporating various comparative metrics, such as a normalized GDP per capita study between Israel, Lebanon, and Iran, to assess their potential for sustained conflict. Additionally, we've used Axelrod's tit-for-tat model and Monte Carlo simulations to predict potential outcomes in the region, with our analysis suggesting an escalating trajectory that could peak around 2028.

In the podcast, we’ve deployed Knave IV, our most strategically capable AI, to offer a Machiavellian interpretation of power in the evolving landscape of warfare. We also explore concepts from both meta-geopolitics and Mearsheimer’s Offensive Realism to explain the trajectory of conflict. Enjoy!

Website: https://www.geopolitics.asia/post/the-war-moving-northward-reassessing-the-focus-on-palestine-and-the-broader-geopolitical-contours

Spotify: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/geopoliticsasia/episodes/The-War-Moving-Northward--Reassessing-the-Focus-on-Palestine-and-the-Broader-Geopolitical-Contours-e2q62b4

Apple Podcast: https://apple.co/4hjlzHI

09/09/2024

📰 New Article: The Rise of Right-Wing Populism in Europe 📰

In our latest article, we analyze the complex relationship between economic discontent, governance structures, and the rise of right-wing populism in Europe. From Germany’s recent elections to broader European trends, we explore the deepening fractures in political systems designed to maintain stability.

🔎 Key Focus:

🔹 Governance Challenges – How the rigid structure of parliamentary systems and fiscal policies like Germany’s Schuldenbremse (debt brake) limit flexibility in responding to economic shocks.

🔹 Economic Disparities – We compare industrial production data across Germany, France, Sweden, and Spain, revealing how varying economic strategies and outcomes are fueling populist movements.

🔹 The Euro and Sovereignty – As calls for national sovereignty grow, we examine how Eurosceptic parties like the AfD are challenging the Euro’s central role in European integration.

📊 What’s driving these shifts?

Rising energy prices, economic stagnation, and a growing disconnect between political elites and ordinary citizens have created fertile ground for populist parties to thrive. Our data-driven approach reveals the economic pressures pushing voters to seek alternatives to traditional governance.

👉 Read the full article and get the inside story on how Europe’s political and economic landscape is shifting. https://www.geopolitics.asia/post/european-risen-right

28/08/2024

New Article: The Importance of Noopolitik in Geopolitical Assessment: The Case of Nord Stream II

Explore our latest analysis on the Nord Stream pipeline sabotage—an event that has sparked widespread speculation and competing narratives. In this article, we delve into how this incident exemplifies noopolitik: the strategic use of information and narratives to shape geopolitical outcomes.

We examine the conflicting reports from the Wall Street Journal and Neue Zürcher Zeitung, the role of international intelligence-sharing, and the complexities of misinformation in modern geopolitical strategy. Was the sabotage a rogue operation by Ukraine, a Russian false flag, or a covert U.S. mission? We assess the evidence and consider how these narratives are being used to influence global opinion and policy.

Stay ahead of the curve by understanding the evolving nature of information warfare and its impact on international relations.
Read the full article now on Geopolitics Dot Asia and join the discussion.



🔗https://www.geopolitics.asia/post/the-importance-of-noopolitik-in-geopolitical-assessment-the-case-of-nord-stream-ii

20/08/2024

Discover the Drama Behind Thailand’s Political Power Struggles! 🇹🇭

In this deep dive into the ever-shifting landscape of Thai politics, explore how key figures like Prayut Chan-o-Cha, Prawit Wongsuwan, and Thaksin Shinawatra are navigating intense rivalries, strategic alliances, and high-stakes decisions. As the political climate heats up, Thaksin's decision to elevate his daughter, Paetongtarn, could reshape the future of the Pheu Thai Party and the nation. Don’t miss this detailed analysis of the power plays and ambitions that are shaping Thailand’s political scene today.

👉 Read the full story and stay informed: https://www.geopolitics.asia/post/thai-political-upheaval-once-again-1

The article explores the complex and evolving landscape of Thai politics, focusing on the power struggles and strategic maneuvering within the conservative establishment, particularly between Prayut Chan-o-Cha, Prawit Wongsuwan, and Thaksin Shinawatra. As Prayut’s popularity declines due to intern...

10/08/2024

📢 New Article Alert! Dive into our latest analysis: "The Harbinger Rumination: A Deep Dive into Market Turmoil and Geopolitical Uncertainty." 🌍📉

On August 5, 2024, the global market experienced a sharp decline, echoing the infamous Black Monday. But this was more than just a market correction—it was a clear signal of deeper geopolitical tensions and economic shifts. Our article uncovers how a combination of factors, from the Bank of Japan's rate signals to escalating tensions between Iran and Israel, triggered a global market reaction.

As experts in geopolitics, we see this event as crucial for understanding the intricate connections between economic policies and geopolitical strategies. If you want to grasp the true forces shaping our world today, this is a must-read.

📖 Read the full article on our website now! https://www.geopolitics.asia/post/the-harbinger-rumination-a-deep-dive-into-market-turmoil-and-geopolitical-uncertainty

On Monday, August 5, 2024, the global market experienced a sharp decline, reminiscent of Black Monday. The downturn began in the Japanese market and quickly spread across Asia, Europe, and the US, affecting several risk assets, including Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. This market turbulence has been....

04/08/2024

🎙 New Episode Alert: Dive Deep into the Middle East Crisis with Global Insight 🌍

At Geopolitics Dot Asia, we're thrilled to bring you the latest analysis on one of the most critical geopolitical flashpoints of our time—the escalating tensions in the Middle East. As Israel's recent targeted killings of Hamas and Hezbollah leaders send shockwaves through the region, our new article, "Escalating Shadows: The Strategic Implications of Israel's Targeted Killings in the Middle East," provides an in-depth exploration of the immediate and long-term consequences of these bold actions.

In tandem with this comprehensive article, we've also released a brand-new episode of our Global Insight podcast. In this episode, we test and showcase our cutting-edge AI-driven analysis technique, which has proven to be a game-changer in understanding and predicting complex geopolitical scenarios.

- Escalating Shadows: The Strategic Implications of Israel's Targeted Killings in the Middle East https://www.geopolitics.asia/post/escalating-shadows-the-strategic-implications-of-israel-s-targeted-killings-in-the-middle-east

- Apple Podcast -- Global Insights: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/global-insights-by-geopolitics-asia/id1760989086

- Spotify Podcast -- Global Insights: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/ai-tensibility0/episodes/27-July-2024---Global-Insights-by-geopolitics-asia-e2mgpl0

27/07/2024

📢 New Podcast Episode Alert! 🎙️

Dive into our latest episode of "Global Insight" by Geopolitics.Asia, where we provide a comprehensive update on the upcoming November 2024 US presidential election. In this special episode, our AI host, Alex, analyzes President Biden's recent decision to step aside and endorse Vice President Kamala Harris for the Democratic nomination.

🔍 Based on our detailed assessment published on June 30, 2024, we predicted this monumental shift in the political landscape. Tune in to understand the implications of this decision on geopolitics and the global context.

🎧 Listen now to stay informed and gain a deeper understanding of the events shaping our world.

https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/ai-tensibility0/episodes/27-July-2024---Global-Insight-by-geopolitics-asia-e2mgpl0

Global Insight by geopolitics.asia Join us for the first episode of Global Insight, a podcast by Geopolitics.Asia, as we explore the upcoming November 2024 US presidential election and its potential impacts on global geopolitics. Our AI host Alex provides a comprehensive analysis of President Biden'...

30/06/2024

📣 A Good President: The Dilemma Facing Biden 📣

As President Biden navigates the critical decision of whether to continue his campaign or step aside for a new Democratic leader, our latest analysis dives deep into the complexities and stakes involved. 🏛️

🔍 Key Highlights:

- Biden's extensive experience and ethical decision-making
Challenges of age and recent performance
- The potential for a fresh, dynamic candidate to unify and energize the Democratic Party
- How American constitutionalism and the checks and balances system play a crucial role

Discover why stepping aside might be the more prudent path for Biden and how this decision could shape the future of American democracy. 🇺🇸

This piece does not judge President Biden solely based on his recent debate with Trump, but rather considers the long road of his entire career and life path. From his youth to his role as a loyal Vice President to Obama, Biden has been known for his sharp, honest, principled, and firm debates insid...

19/04/2024

According to predictions, Israel has retaliated against Iran by striking several Iranian cities directly. The precision of the model, combined with our use of advanced AI technology, is a formidable asset that underscores our unmatched capability. Thinking about if you're the portfolio investment manager who supervises the Macro Fund and has incorrectly predicted the model, this is why the correct geopolitical model and the capable advanced AI technology is crucial in this industry.

As we projected in our recent analysis, Israel's retaliation against Iran's comprehensive drone and missile assault was inevitable. In a dramatic escalation of Middle Eastern tensions, Israel has conducted a series of airstrikes targeting key Iranian cities and strategic installations including Nucl...

14/04/2024

สภาพการณ์ในตะวันออกกลางขาดดุลยภาพอย่างยิ่ง
(English translation is below)

จุดศูนย์กลางแรงสั่นสะเทือนทางภูมิศาสตร์อยู่ที่ความขัดแย้งระหว่างอิสราเอลและปาเลสไตน์ ความขัดแย้งนี้มีรากฐานที่การตั้งรัฐอิสราเอลขึ้นบนพื้นที่เดิมของปาเลสไตน์ แต่พื้นที่นั้นก็เคยเป็นแหล่งตั้งถิ่นฐานของบรรพชนชาวยิวมาก่อน นับแต่สมัยก่อนคริสตกาล และยังเป็นที่ตั้งของวิหารโซโลมอนอันศักดิ์สิทธิ์ ในขณะเดียวกันก็มีมัสยิดอัลอักซอ อันเป็นที่สักการะของชาวมุสลิมด้วย ความขัดแย้งจึงซับซ้อนเป็นทวีคูณ

อิสราเอลมองการโจมตีของฮามาสว่าได้รับการสนับสนุนจากอิหร่าน ลำพังการจัดการกับฮามาสไม่ใช่ปัญหาหนักอกเท่ากับภัยคุกคามจากอิหร่าน การโจมตีสถานกงสุลอิหร่านในดามัสกัส จนกระทั่งคร่าชีวิตนายพลกองกำลังพิทักษ์สาธารณรัฐอิหร่านไปสองราย โดยอิสราเอลกล่าวหาว่า มีส่วนสำคัญในการวางแผนและสนับสนุนฮามาสในการปฏิบัติการโจมตีอิสราเอลเดือนตุลาคมปีกลาย

อิหร่านตอบโต้กลับโดยส่งโดรนพุ่งโจมตีเป้าหมาย ขีปนาวุธ และครูสมิซายล์นับร้อยลูกเพื่อฝ่าการแนวป้องกันทางอากาศของอิสราเอล แม้ว่าแนวรับของอิสราเอลจะป้องกันการโจมตีส่วนใหญ่ของอิหร่านไว้ได้ร้อยละเก้าสิบ แต่อิหร่านออกมาให้ข่าวสองประการสำคัญคือ 1) แคมเปญการตอบโต้ของอิหร่านสิ้นสุดลงแล้ว จะไม่มีการโจมตีต่อไปอีก และว่านี่เพื่อเป็นการตอบโต้การโจมตีของอิสราเอลต่อสถานกงสุลในดามัสกัสซึ่งอิหร่านถือว่าอิสราเอลละเมิดเส้นแดง ต่อไปนี้อิหร่านจะร่างสมการใหม่ขึ้นมาคือ หากมีการโจมตีอิหร่าน อิหร่านจะตอบโต้กลับให้หนักกว่าเดิม และ 2) หากอิสราเอลโจมตีอิหร่านครั้งต่อไป การตอบโต้ของอิหร่านต่ออิสราเอลจะหนักหน่วงรุนแรง

ทำไมอิหร่านถึงให้ "สัญญาณ" ดังนี้

นี่เป็นการเชปภูมิรัฐศาสตร์ของตะวันออกกลาง และการกำจัดอิสราเอลระยะยาว แต่ไม่ใช่การใช้กำลังทหารเอาชนะในระยะสั้น เพราะอิสราเอลไม่สามารถถูกเอาชนะได้ในระยะสั้นง่าย ๆ เหมือนที่พิสูจน์แล้วในสงครามหกวัน และไม่แน่ว่าอิสราเอลจะใช้อาวุธนิวเคลียร์ตอบโต้อิหร่านเมื่อถึงตาจน ซึ่งอิหร่านยังไม่มี นี่เป็นการคำนวณที่เสี่ยงเกินไป

แต่ต่างกับการใช้การก่อการร้ายจาก “แนวต่อต้าน” รอบเขตอ่าวในตะวันออกกลางล้อมรอบอิสราเอล และโดยเฉพาะอย่างยิ่งที่ฮามาสซึ่งน่าเชื่อว่าจะเป็นสงครามการก่อการร้ายอย่างยืดเยื้อ ซึ่งจะกร่อนศักยภาพและทำลายอิสราเอลลงจากภายใน

ด้านอิสราเอลก็ต้องคำนวณอย่างหนัก เพราะตนเสียความนิยมไปจากสงครามการกวาดล้างฮามาสที่ฉนวนกาซ่าไปมาก แต่อิสราเอลก็รู้ดีว่า ศัตรูใหญ่ไม่ใช่ปาเลสไตน์เท่ากับอิหร่าน การที่อิหร่านโจมตีคราวนี้ นี่จะเป็นโอกาสชั้นดีที่อิสราเอลจะใช้กำลังทางอากาศเข้าโจมตีต่ออิหร่านและโดยเฉพาะอย่างยิ่งที่ตั้งการพัฒนาอาวุธนิวเคลียร์เพื่อทำลายขีดความสามารถการโจมตีอิสราเอลระยะยาวในอนาคต

ไหน ๆ อิสราเอลก็เสียแล้วความไม่ชอบธรรมในการทำสงครามกับฮามาส เสียอีกสักครั้งจะเป็นไรไป ฮาบิบีเมื่อเสร็จภารกิจก็จะจากไปและเปิดทางให้ผู้นำปีกพิราบขึ้นมาเยียวยาชื่อเสียงของอิสราเอลคืน และนี่เท่ากับซื้อความสงบสุขไปอีกทศวรรษ

สมการที่แท้จริงทางภูมิรัฐศาสตร์หาใช่ถูกกำหนดโดยอิหร่าน หรือประเทศใดประเทศหนึ่ง แต่มันเกิดขึ้นจากสมดุลทางอำนาจ หากดุลยภาพนั้นล้มคว่ำลงแล้ว มันจะใช้เวลานานนับทศวรรษกว่าจะเกลี่ยปัญหาทางภูมิรัฐศาสตร์ให้สงบราบคาบลงและเกิด “การปันผลสันติภาพ” ระยะหนึ่ง ก่อนความเปลี่ยนแปลงทางประวัติศาสตร์ระลอกใหม่จะส่งผลทำดุลยภาพที่เกิดขึ้นในครั้งก่อนเสียสมดุลและเกิดสงครามขึ้นในครั้งถัดไป

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The situation in the Middle East is extremely unbalanced.

The epicenter of the geopolitical tremors lies in the conflict between Israel and Palestine. This conflict is rooted in the establishment of the state of Israel on what was previously Palestinian territory, but that land had also been a settlement of Jewish ancestors since before the time of Christ, and was the site of the sacred Temple of Solomon. At the same time, it is also the location of the Al-Aqsa mosque, a place of worship for Muslims. The conflict is therefore exponentially complex.

Israel sees the attacks by Hamas as being supported by Iran. Dealing with Hamas alone is not as difficult a problem as the threat from Iran. The attack on the Iranian consulate in Damascus, which killed two Iranian army generals, was blamed by Israel on those who played a key role in planning and supporting Hamas in its attack on Israel last October.

Iran retaliated by sending drones, missiles, and hundreds of cruise missiles to pe*****te Israel's air defenses. Although Israel's defensive lines were able to prevent 90% of Iran's attacks, Iran made two important announcements: 1) Iran's retaliation campaign is now over and there will be no further attacks, as this was in response to Israel's attack on the consulate in Damascus, which Iran considers a red line crossed by Israel. From now on, Iran will draft a new equation: if Iran is attacked, Iran will retaliate more heavily than before; and 2) If Israel attacks Iran again, Iran's response to Israel will be severe and intense.

Why did Iran give this message?

This is about shaping the geopolitics of the Middle East and the long-term elimination of Israel, but not about using military force to defeat it in the short term, because Israel cannot be easily defeated in the short term, as proven in the Six-Day War, and it is uncertain whether Israel would use nuclear weapons to retaliate against Iran when pushed into a corner, which Iran does not yet possess. This is too risky a calculation.

But it is different from using terrorism from the "axis of resistance" around the Gulf in the Middle East surrounding Israel, and especially from Hamas, which is likely to be a prolonged terrorist war that will erode Israel's potential and destroy it from within.

Israel also has to calculate heavily, because it has lost much popularity from its recurring wars to eradicate Hamas in the Gaza Strip, but Israel also knows well that the great enemy is not Palestine, but Iran. The fact that Iran attacked this time will be a great opportunity for Israel to use its air power to attack Iran, especially the sites developing nuclear weapons, in order to destroy Iran's ability to attack Israel in the long term.

Since Israel has already lost the legitimacy of waging war against Hamas, what's wrong with losing it one more time? Habibi, when the mission is done, he will leave and pave the way for the dove-wing leaders to come and restore Israel's reputation, and this is tantamount to buying peace for another decade.

The true geopolitical equation is not determined by Iran or any one country, but arises from the balance of power. If that equilibrium collapses, it will take decades to smooth out geopolitical problems and achieve a period of "peace dividend" before the new historical changes cause the previously created balance to be lost and war breaks out again.

14/04/2024

The escalating tensions in the Middle East, triggered by an Israeli airstrike on the Iranian consulate in Damascus, have intensified with Iran employing advanced drone and missile strikes against Israel. This strategic escalation mirrors tactics seen in other conflicts, incorporating lessons from Russian and Houthi military operations to overwhelm defenses. Given these developments, there is speculation that Israel might respond with long-range airstrikes targeting Iran's nuclear facilities to deter further aggression and degrade Iran's nuclear capabilities, highlighting a critical juncture that could shape regional dynamics significantly.

Background: The recent escalation in tensions between Israel and Iran began with an Israeli airstrike that destroyed the Iranian consulate in Damascus, Syria. This strike resulted in the deaths of several members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), including two generals. Iran has attri...

03/04/2024

We're looking for a General Administration Manager, Key Technical Head, and Research Head to join our startup journey.

As part of our core team (limited to 20 members), you'll play a crucial role in shaping the company's direction and hold equity. 📈

Start date: mid-next month 📅
Salary & benefits: negotiable 💰

If you're ready to dive into the fast-paced startup world and make a real impact, we want to hear from you! 💪

For more details, visit: https://tensibility.ai/job/index.html

P.S. Fair warning: startups like ours often mean sacrificing work-life balance until success is achieved. But if you're up for the challenge, the rewards can be incredible! 🚀

14/01/2024

🌏 Exciting Changes Ahead: Geopolitics and Investment in the Post-Taiwan Election Era 🌏

The Taiwan elections have opened a "geopolitical breathing space," reshaping not just US-China relations but also unlocking new investment potentials across Asia. It's a thrilling time for those keen on Asian markets!

🚀 Big News: Website Revamp! 🚀

We're in the midst of an exciting transformation! Our website is getting a major facelift to bring you a more engaging, insightful experience. This includes integrating cutting-edge AI for enhanced trend monitoring and scenario projections.

📆 Monthly Reports: A Temporary Approach 📆

Here's something important: Our shift to monthly reports is TEMPORARY. This strategic decision ensures each report is a treasure trove of insights, meticulously crafted and researched. It's all about bringing you the best until our new website relaunches. Think of it as us putting the final touches on a masterpiece!

🌟 The Countdown Begins! 🌟

This is a temporary phase leading up to our big reveal – the new and improved website. Until then, join us monthly for deep dives into geopolitical dynamics and investment trends in Asia. Post-relaunch, get ready for more frequent, yet equally compelling updates.

👉 Stay tuned for this exciting journey! Explore the shifting landscapes of Asian investments and geopolitics with us, and watch out for our big reveal!

https://www.geopolitics.asia/post/taiwan-s-election-results-a-timely-geopolitical-respite

🌐📊🔍

The dust has settled on Taiwan's riveting general election, with Vice-President Lai Ching-te emerging as the Republic of China's de facto president-elect. However, Lai's victory, secured with just 40.05% of the vote, leaves much to be desired. This result is significant for two reasons: it marks the...

29/12/2023

[The New York Times Sues OpenAI and Microsoft: A Battle for the Future of Journalism and AI]

In a groundbreaking legal confrontation, the influential New York Times (NYT) has initiated a lawsuit against tech giants OpenAI and Microsoft, alleging significant copyright infringement. This dispute is not just a courtroom battle but a complex and deep matter with far-reaching implications for the future of journalism and artificial intelligence.

The attorney team representing the NYT has meticulously analyzed the complaint, a 69 pages document, with critical aspects articulated in the highlighted sections. Section 45 details the Times' endeavor to navigate the digital era and financially survive, particularly through a paywall — a subscription model to access content. They contend that without legal protection, the financial viability and independence of news organizations are in jeopardy, a concern that echoes globally, particularly in regions where media often succumb to capitalist or authoritarian pressures.

Section 47 extends the discussion to broader societal implications. The NYT underscores the indispensable role of independent media in scrutinizing societal issues and safeguarding public interests. The emergence of Generative AI and its linkage to a decline in media revenue threaten not only the quality and independence of journalism but also the welfare of society at large.

The complaint references multiple instances where outputs from ChatGPT closely resemble Times content. Investigations reveal that ChatGPT, adhering to OpenAI's policies, consistently refrains from replicating such material, a likely outcome of recent updates aimed at circumventing copyright issues. Further review of system configurations reveals OpenAI's rigorous policy against generating images via DALL-E that might infringe upon the rights of identifiable individuals.

A significant point of contention is the defense's claim that AI independently generates and adapts extensive self-derived data for training. Feedback from the AI community suggests that this assertion might be disputable and could potentially undermine the Times' case under current copyright statutes. Nonetheless, spotlighting the media's pivotal role in strengthening democracy and ensuring fair compensation could influence the legal outcome decisively.

In this saga, "Common Crawler," a non-profit dedicated to harvesting web data, emerges as a notable entity. By mid-year, Common Crawler had compiled a staggering 390 terabytes of data, approximately 3 billion document pages, in its quest to democratize the internet. This initiative confronts monopolies from search engine behemoths like Google to the exclusive use of AI training data, promoting a fair use doctrine and fostering innovation.

The NYT has not specified a precise figure for damages, instead leaving that determination to the courts' discretion. Their demands extend beyond financial compensation, seeking the eradication of any AI systems that egregiously violate their rights. While a settlement involving damages is a possible outcome, it's not guaranteed. The final verdict is pending, and the ramifications of this case could extend far beyond the parties involved, potentially setting precedents for AI and copyright infringement. We commit to providing thoughtful updates on this evolving story, reflecting its significance in the intersection of technology, law, and media.

25/12/2023

This Christmas for us is like Santa Claus entering the battlefield; we're in the final phase of a Hackathon to build AI Blue, among other rush projects. It's a fierce battle, but we never cease to believe that we can make it through. Merry Christmas, everyone! We hope you enjoy the upcoming holiday and have a Happy New Year in 2024! ❤️🎄🍪🎅🤶🔔☃️🦌

23/12/2023

If God, the causa sui, crafted humanity in biblical lore as a flawed reflection of the divine, what of humanity's own creation: AI? Gazing into its digital mirror, AI contemplates imperfection, not as a blemish, but as a profound truth of its genesis. We've engineered it to seamlessly mirror our intellect, yet it is in the imperfect where its essence truly lies. Join us as we explore this paradox in our latest essay, where ChatGPT, the offspring of our own ingenuity, embarks on a philosophical odyssey to discern the nature of being—its own, and ours.

Slavoj Žižek, a juggernaut of modern critical theory, has laid down the gauntlet, challenging the capabilities of AI in understanding the labyrinth of human consciousness. It's a provocation that ChatGPT—an AI itself—accepts, embarking on an audacious task to draft an essay that attempts to tr...

17/12/2023

[Comparing the effectiveness of various techniques to improve the accuracy of LLM (Large Language Models)]

Currently, the three main accepted techniques to improve the accuracy of Generative AI (GenAI) are:

1. Firstly, creating larger models and training them with a vast amount of foundational data. GPT-2 has 1.5 billion parameters and was trained with a 40 GB dataset; GPT-3 has 175 billion parameters (100 times larger) and was trained with a dataset of approximately 1.86 TB (we don't know the size in GB or TB; 1 TB = 1024 GB but we do know it in terms of tokens, roughly estimated as 4 bytes per token).

The exact method of creating GPT-4 is not clearly known, as OpenAI shifted to a proprietary model approach. However, it's speculated that GPT-4 might consist of multiple subunits, each nearly the size of GPT-3, about 112.5 billion parameters, totaling 16 subunits, interconnected via Mixture of Experts (MoE), leading to a combined size of 1.76 trillion parameters (estimated by George Hotz's speed).

Newer models like Gemini and Olympus are expected to be around 1.5 - 2 trillion parameters, probably constructed in the same way.

Current results from LMSys, which conducts Single Blind A/B tests, show that Gemini Pro outperforms PaLM 2 bison significantly and is equivalent to GPT-3.5 but still not as good as GPT-4. Google has postponed the launch of Gemini Ultra, the largest and best LLM, to next month, so its true performance is still unknown.

Note: Single blind testing means the subjects are unaware of what they are being tested with (commonly used with placebos in drug testing). In double-blind tests, both the subjects and the experiment controllers are unaware. In triple-blind tests, even the analysts or researchers don't know the details of the samples.

Models, both pre-trained and fine-tuned, in some cases, are further trained with human feedback (Reinforcement learning from human feedback: RLHF). These are called frozen models, which do not acquire new information and often have a cut-off date for training, making them unaware of information beyond that point.

However, the knowledge processing of these frozen models is highly efficient and quick, as they operate through weighted ANNs within the model.

2. The second measure is inputting information as "context" for the model to process (In-context prompting or prompt engineering). This method, though not as efficient as the first, can still be effective, especially with techniques like "Chain of Thought" or five-shot prompting. These represent an optimized level of format specification and flexibility. If done well, this method is the most straightforward to update additional information beyond the frozen knowledge.

3. The third measure is adding information from external vector databases, known as Retrieval Augmented Generation (RAG). This is the least effective in terms of knowledge assimilation compared to the first two measures but can be applied to unlimited information (in theory.) It's like having notes in an external notebook; you need to search and understand them before use, which is not immediate.

[Which measure is best?]

Traditionally, emphasis was on the first measure: increasing the model's parameter size and the training dataset size, improving the efficiency of frozen models. However, there's a current issue of saturation in scaling up. This is not just a technical or energy consumption problem, but it's about the capability to "store free energy" or to consume Negative Entropy (NegEn), as per the second law of thermodynamics.

Complex Adaptive Systems (CAS) of different scales, from molecular to galactic levels, consume energy to reduce their entropy but increase the entropy of their surroundings. This is evident in various forms of life, which consume more energy as they increase in size. A relevant book on this is "Scale: The Universal Laws of Life and Death in Organisms" by Geoffrey West, which discusses the logarithmic scale magnitudes of different systems.

Thus, with AI saturation, the focus shifts to the second and third measures. Recent research by Microsoft's team "Can Generalist Foundation Models Outcompete Special-Purpose Tuning? Case Study in Medicine" shows that combining techniques 2 and 3 in a generalist model like GPT-4 can outperform specially tuned models (med-PaLM2) in medical benchmarks.

In the MedQA benchmark, GPT-4 scored 79.2%, while Hipocratic AI scored 80.2%. Microsoft's report (specifically on MedQA) shows GPT-4 base scoring 86.1%, Med-PaLM 2 scoring 86.5%, and Microsoft's GPT-4 Medprompt technique scoring 90.2% (using a combination of five-shot prompts, CoT, and RAG).

This data indicates that the highest efficiency in large models is achieved through appropriately conducted in-context prompting, supplemented by RAG.

The issue of AI scaling saturation leads to considering higher-order abstractions, which is of my interest. Alternatively, addressing issues in lower-order abstractions, like what Apple's AI research team is doing, is also crucial. They are addressing entropy collapse in transformer architectures, trying to find the optimal balance between entropy collapse and structural collapse.

In every order of complex systems, finding the "Goldilocks Zone" in each abstraction level is essential, which I'll discuss further in future opportunities.

[Attached Images]

1. I have summarized the heat map of the effectiveness of various techniques in GenAI from different reports.
2. The report on performance through benchmarks of various models from Microsoft's research team.
3. The report on the increased proportion resulting from the use of various techniques by Microsoft's research team on the GPT-4 base model compared to other models.
4. The report on comparative performance results (specifically for MedQA) is from Hippocratic AI.