Ben Paul Markets

03/02/2025

Trump’s tariffs, AI tech disruption, and lingering uncertainty about inflation and interest rates. There’s a lot to digest right now.
Here’s the latest column, which ran in today:

The first Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting of 2025 may have seemed irrelevant to many investors against the global market turmoil last week, triggered by news that China’s DeepSeek had managed to develop a high-performing artificial intelligence (AI) model very cheaply and without usin...

27/01/2025

Something I didn’t say in this column: If investors really want OCBC to unlock value by distributing its stake in Great Eastern, they have to engage directly with the board. Asking MAS or SGX to intervene isn’t going to help. Shareholders have to organise and work to change the board’s mind.

When Great Eastern announced late last Friday (Jan 24) that it had been granted yet another extension of time by the Singapore Exchange (SGX) to comply with the minimum free float rule, one of my colleagues joked: “Maybe two years from now, we’ll still be doing this.” Read more at The Business...

20/01/2025

There could be a barrage of policy announcements in the US right after Donald Trump’s inauguration today. It’s worth keeping in mind that the US economy has been remarkably resilient, which provides a solid medium-term underpinning for the markets. I’m not really bullish about 2025, but I am on the lookout for opportunities – especially in this region.
Here’s a link to the most recent podcast, earlier this month:

IN the first episode of Mark to Market for 2025, senior correspondent Ben Paul sheds light on the current economic landscape - a year poised with significant uncertainties and opportunities. At the forefront is the robust performance of the US economy despite forecasters’ previous predictions of a...

20/01/2025

Some investors grumble that independent directors and external auditors are ultimately selected by controlling shareholders; and I have heard suggestions that perhaps there’s a case for an independent government agency to vet the books of public-listed companies. Interestingly, ACRA reviews some “higher-risk” financial statements under its so-called financial reporting and surveillance programme. Would it help if more resources were allocated to this effort?
Here’s the latest column, which ran in today:

While scrolling through some local business news headlines earlier this month, I stumbled upon a report about the chief executive of Miyoshi having been fined S$22,400 by the state court after the company failed to recognise an impairment loss in its financial statements for the year to Aug 31, 2019...

16/01/2025

Lots of people seem to want the review group to recommend systematically channelling domestic savings into the market. Those same people ought to also push for a “value-up” programme.
Here’s my contribution to the column, which ran in today:

SOME market watchers might have been disappointed that Minister for Trade and Industry Gan Kim Yong was rather guarded in his remarks earlier this month about the hotly debated topic of using public sector money to shore up the local stock market. Read more at The Business Times.

13/01/2025

SingPost should have disclosed the data falsification immediately and simply pledged to take remedial action. Trying to explain everything nearly a year after the fact, over the carping of disgruntled former employees, just puts the board in a defensive position.
Here’s the latest column, which ran in the today.

When Singapore Post (SingPost) said on the evening of Dec 22 that it had sacked three top executives for mishandling internal investigations sparked by whistleblowing reports, I wondered if the story would get a proper airing over the Christmas and New Year period. Read more at The Business Times.

23/12/2024

Fed projections of US growth were revised up as rates were hiked, and they are still being revised up as rates are being lowered. Despite all the risks, US stocks could keep climbing in 2025. The Singapore market is looking interesting too – with the banks returning cash, many REITs having been beaten down, and more companies choosing to unlock value.
Here’s the last column of 2024, which ran in today’s edition of . Wishing everyone a peaceful and prosperous 2025.

US FED chair Jerome Powell sounded almost ebullient when he responded to a question last week about whether he felt satisfied with the way 2024 is coming to an end. Read more at The Business Times.

18/12/2024

When a company’s best laid plans are blocked – in this case by legislation – it’s usually a good idea to quickly change course, even if it means having to make big changes.
Here’s my latest contribution to the column, in :

THE withdrawal of Allianz’s offer for Income Insurance has raised a number of questions for shareholders of the former cooperative. Read more at The Business Times.

16/12/2024

What is it that you do better than anyone else in the world? If a company’s board and top management cannot immediately answer that question, and cope with some probing questions on the matter, it should probably not go public.
I’m not suggesting that a company’s business model should not change or be adapted over time. As a starting point, however, if you don’t have customers prepared to go out of their way to use your product or service, you don’t really have a business.
Too many companies come to market with little more than ambition and hope, and it’s resulting in a vicious cycle of low valuations and investor apathy.
The MAS review group should look into how the enablers of public listings can be incentivised to ensure companies do not attempt to go public without a convincing narrative about how they will drive shareholder value.
Here’s the latest column, which ran in today’s edition of :

When news broke earlier this month that the external auditors of the Singapore Institute of Advanced Medicine Holdings (SIAMH) had issued a disclaimer of opinion on its latest financial statements, I imagined that the company’s share price would immediately plummet. Read more at The Business Times...

09/12/2024

My sense is that OCBC will find it tough to offer Great Eastern’s remaining minorities a high enough price to part with their shares. And, if Great Eastern were to try restoring its free float by issuing new shares to investors, those shares would probably have to be priced well below the S$25.60 that OCBC has just paid to increase its stake. Is there another solution?
Here’s the latest column, which ran in today’s edition of :

FORMER remisier Ong Chin Woo, who fought to unlock value for minority shareholders of Great Eastern earlier this year, has begun the next stage of his campaign. Read more at The Business Times.

05/12/2024

Believe it or not, the podcast series has reached its 50th episode – and it seems fitting that it is about the largest company in the Singapore market.
The story at DBS is not just about share buybacks and whether they should always be welcomed by investors, but also about whether share-based compensation properly incentivises boards and top executives.

IN A recent episode of the Mark To Market podcast, BT senior correspondent Ben Paul delves into a hot topic that has stirred the market: DBS’ S$3 billion share buyback and the subsequent sale of shares by its CEO, Piyush Gupta. Read more at The Business Times.

02/12/2024

It was surprising to me that some respondents to the MAS consultation called for even looser leverage rules for REITs. It just feels like a recipe for trouble. Let’s focus first on internalising the management function of these REITs.
Here’s the latest column, in today’s edition of :

SOME respondents to the recent public consultation on amendments to the leverage requirements for real estate investment trusts (Reits) had a rather audacious request. Read more at The Business Times.

28/11/2024

Genting Singapore has been a real dog this year. Weak earnings on the back of an adverse turn in the “win rate” at its casino was one problem, but it doesn’t help that RWS’s “tourism performance” was so bad that its gaming licence has been renewed for only two years this time around. A lot is now riding on the so-called RWS 2.0 plan to enhance and expand the integrated resort.
Here’s my latest contribution to the column in today’s edition of :

RESORTS World Sentosa (RWS) broke ground on Nov 15 for a major new waterfront development that will include hotels, more retail and dining offerings and even an “immersive, experiential mountain trail”. Read more at The Business Times.

25/11/2024

Investors ought to think very hard before voting in favour of share buyback mandates. I sometimes wonder if they are just giving companies a licence to punt around in the market. What purpose does it really serve?
Here’s the latest column, which ran in today’s edition of :

This column received some negative feedback last week, following its take on DBS chief executive Piyush Gupta unloading shares right after the bank reported strong Q3 2024 earnings and unveiled a S$3 billion share buyback programme. Read more at The Business Times.

18/11/2024

Judging from comments I’ve heard this morning, many people do not seem to think the manner share buybacks are conducted in this market is really a problem. I don’t agree; and, I may have more to say shortly.
In the meantime, here’s the latest column, which ran in today’s edition of :

SOME investors may have had mixed feelings about DBS chief executive Piyush Gupta selling 300,000 shares earlier this month, right after the banking group reported strong financial results for Q3 2024 and unveiled a S$3 billion share buyback programme. Read more at The Business Times.

11/11/2024

To be honest, I’m tired of hearing about Donald Trump. But we have four more years of this ahead of us. So, buckle up.
Here’s the latest column, which ran in today’s edition of :

One thing most people seem to agree on, following the divisive elections in the United States, is that Donald Trump is going to change the world during his second term as president. Read more at The Business Times.

10/11/2024

05/11/2024

It looks like Dyna-Mac could end up with a narrow free float (or perhaps no free float) when the offer concludes. Whatever the case, this deal could be talked about long after it’s concluded for a couple of reasons.
The latest podcast is out now:

IN THIS episode of Mark the Market podcast, Ben Paul, senior correspondent, at The Business Times delves into the recent corporate buzz surrounding Dyna-Mac Holdings. Providing a thorough analysis of the ongoing acquisition offer from a special purpose vehicle controlled by South Korea’s Hanwha Oc...