07/02/2023
Gas circular debt clearance (07th Feb’23)
Longing for Valuations
The government is considering settling the outstanding gas sector circular debt and discussed the plan with the IMF in this regard. Moreover, the amount of settled circular debt is expected to come back to the gov’t via dividends, either fully funded or at a 13% cost. In this regard, we have conducted a sensitivity for the potential dividends from state-owned enterprises including OGDC and PPL.
Scenario-1
A cash injection by the incumbent govt of PKR 543bn to Sui companies (SNGP and SSGC), which will then be re-routed to OGDC and PPL for dividend declaration of PKR 75.80/share and PKR 33.08/share, respectively. The fiscal cost of this scenario for the govt is estimated at PKR 71.4bn.
Scenario-2
As per news flow, while the cash injection by the incumbent govt to Sui companies will remain the same (PKR 543bn) in this scenario, resulting in dividend declaration by OGDC and PPL, the fiscal cost to the govt will be nil. This is owed to a potential minority shareholder dividend of PKR 58bn for OGDC and PKR 30bn for PPL, which will take the total payout by OGDC to PKR 89.17/share, and PKR 44.10/share by PPL. Taking cue from that, we estimate that OGDC’s minority dividend is expected at PKR 57.5bn which will be funded via encashment of PKR 23bn via PIBs, and the remaining PKR 35bn through cash. While for PPL, the minority dividend is expected to be completely funded through the balance sheet (PKR 30bn).
We also find it important to mention that neither cash nor a non-cash settlement would affect the minority shareholders’ dividends. In the former case, the cash will be raised through the issuance of T-bills and given to Sui companies as a grant. Whereas in the second scenario, the book entries will be made via a commitment paper whereby all the accounts will be net off, with minority shareholders receiving their dividends.
Moreover, we believe that this is the first phase of circular debt clearance, while we expect that in the second phase of clearance, the remaining receivables of OGDC and PPL will also be settled by means of the same mechanism. We do highlight that post clearance of circular debt phase 1, the remaining receivables of OGDC and PPL would be PKR 62bn (PKR 14.31/share) and PKR 371bn (PKR 104.79/share) respectively.
We also believe a hike in gas tariff will also significantly support the cash earnings of the companies alongside this gas circular debt clearance, which was a key reason behind depressed valuations at the market. Therefore, a materialization of these two events can re-rate the E&P sector and help aid the index. OGDC and PPL were one of our top picks, as mentioned earlier in our model portfolio highlighted in the 2023 strategy note.