26/08/2023
TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETIN NO.12 ☔
Typhoon GORING (SAOLA)
Issued at 11:00 PM, 26 August 2023
Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin at 5:00 PM tomorrow.
GORING CONTINUES TO FURTHER INTENSIFY AND IS NEARING SUPER TYPHOON CATEGORY
•Location of Center (10:00 PM)
The center of the eye of Typhoon GORING was estimated based on all available data, including those from Aparri, Baler, and Daet Weather Radars, at 135 km East Southeast of Tuguegarao City, Cagayan (17.4°N, 123.0°E)
•Intensity
Maximum sustained winds of 175 km/h near the center, gustiness of up to 215 km/h, and central pressure of 950 hPa
•Present Movement
Southward at 10 km/h
•Extent of Tropical Cyclone Winds
Strong to typhoon-force winds extend outwards up to 260 km from the center
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNALS (TCWS) IN EFFECT
TCWS No.3 (Wind threat: Storm-force winds)
Warning lead time: 18 hours
Range of wind speeds: 89 to 117 km/h (Beaufort 10 to 11)
Potential impacts of winds: Moderate to significant threat to life and property
•The extreme eastern portion of Isabela (Divilacan, Palanan)
TCWS No.2 (Wind threat: Gale-force winds)
Warning lead time: 24 hours
Range of wind speeds: 62 to 88 km/h (Beaufort 8 to 9)
Potential impacts of winds: Minor to moderate threat to life and property
•The eastern portion of mainland Cagayan (Peñablanca, Baggao, Gattaran, Lal-Lo, Gonzaga, Santa Teresita, Buguey, Santa Ana), the eastern portion of Isabela (Dinapigue, Ilagan City, Maconacon, Cabagan, Tumauini, San Pablo, Benito Soliven, San Mariano), and the extreme northern portion of Aurora (Dilasag, Casiguran)
TCWS No.1 (Wind threat: Strong winds)
Warning lead time: 36 hours
Range of wind speeds: 39 to 61 km/h (Beaufort 6 to 7)
Potential impacts of winds: Minimal to minor threat to life and property
•Batanes, Babuyan Islands, the rest of mainland Cagayan, the rest of Isabela, Quirino, Nueva Vizcaya, Apayao, Kalinga, Abra, Mountain Province, Ifugao, the eastern portion of Benguet (Bokod, Buguias, Kabayan, Mankayan), the eastern portion of Ilocos Norte (Pagudpud, Adams, Vintar, Carasi, Nueva Era, Banna, Marcos, Dingras, Solsona, Piddig, Dumalneg, Bangui), the northeastern portion of Nueva Ecija (Carranglan, Pantabangan, Bongabon, Gabaldon, Laur, Rizal), the northern and central portions of Aurora (Dinalungan, Dipaculao, Baler, Maria Aurora, San Luis), Polillo Islands, and Calaguas Islands.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND AREAS
Heavy Rainfall
Forecast accumulated rainfall for tonight to tomorrow evening
• Greater than 200 mm: The extreme eastern portion of Isabela.
• 100-200 mm: The eastern portions of mainland Cagayan and Isabela.
• 50-100 mm: Ilocos Region, Benguet, Abra, the northern portion of Aurora, and rest of mainland Cagayan and Isabela.
Forecast accumulated rainfall for tomorrow evening to Monday evening
• 50-100 mm: The eastern portions of Babuyan Islands and mainland Cagayan.
Forecast accumulated rainfall for Monday evening to Tuesday evening
• 50-100 mm: Batanes, Babuyan Islands, and the northern portion of mainland Cagayan.
Forecast rainfall are generally higher in elevated or mountainous areas. Under these conditions, flooding and rain-induced landslides are possible especially in areas that are highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards as identified in hazard maps and in localities that experienced considerable amounts of rainfall for the past several days.
The Southwest Monsoon enhanced by GORING will bring occasional or monsoon rains over the western portions of Central Luzon, Southern Luzon, and Visayas over the next three days. For more information, refer to Weather Advisory #5 for Southwest Monsoon issued at 11:00 PM today.
Severe Winds
The wind signals warn the public of the general wind threat over an area due to the tropical cyclone. Local winds may be slightly stronger/enhanced in coastal and upland/mountainous areas exposed to winds. Winds are less strong in areas sheltered from the prevailing wind direction.
• Moderate to significant impacts from storm-force winds are possible within any of the areas where Wind Signal No.3 is hoisted.
• Minor to moderate impacts from gale-force winds are possible within any of the areas under Wind Signal No. 2.
• Minimal to minor impacts from strong winds are also possible within any of the areas under Wind Signal No. 1.
The hoisting of Wind Signal No. 4 is not ruled out should the short-term motion of GORING remains the same (e.g., slightly closer towards extreme eastern Isabela).
The enhanced Southwest Monsoon will continue to bring gusty conditions over the following areas not under any Wind Signal, especially in coastal and upland/mountainous areas exposed to winds:
• Tonight and tomorrow: Aurora, Bataan, Metro Manila, CALABARZON, MIMAROPA, Bicol Region, Visayas, Dinagat Islands, and Camiguin.
• Monday: Aurora, Bataan, Metro Manila, CALABARZON, MIMAROPA, Bicol Region, Visayas, Dinagat Islands, Camiguin, and most of Zamboanga Peninsula.
• Tuesday: Aurora, Bataan, Bulacan, Metro Manila, CALABARZON, MIMAROPA, Bicol Region, Visayas, Dinagat Islands, Camiguin, and most of Zamboanga Peninsula.
HAZARDS AFFECTING COASTAL WATERS
A Gale Warning is in effect for the northern and eastern coastal waters of Luzon. Disruption in civilian maritime activities is expected over these waters (e.g., suspension of sea travel). For more information, refer to Gale Warning #4 issued at 5:00 PM today.
TRACK AND INTENSITY OUTLOOK
• In the near terms e.g., next 6 hours, GORING is forecast to continue moving closer towards coast of Isabela. Afterwards, it will then turn generally southeastward and eastward tomorrow before turning northeastward on Monday. On Tuesday, GORING will begin its generally northwestward movement, bringing its center less than 200 km from Batanes by Wednesday afternoon or evening. On the track forecast, GORING may make landfall over the southeastern coast of Taiwan on Thursday.
• GORING is forecast to reach super typhoon category within the next 12 hours and achieve its peak intensity on Monday or Tuesday. Its landfall over the southern portion of Taiwan will result in significant weaken, although it is forecast to remain as a typhoon by the time it emerges over the Taiwan Strait on Thursday evening or Friday early morning.
Considering these developments, the public and disaster risk reduction and management offices concerned are advised to take all necessary measures to protect life and property. Persons living in areas identified to be highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards are advised to follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. For heavy rainfall warnings, thunderstorm/rainfall advisories, and other severe weather information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your local PAGASA Regional Services Division.
DOST-PAGASA
