19/10/2021
HOW, EXACTLY, CAN A 4,500-CAR MOTORCADE FIT IN LEGAZPI CITY?
The Sagan Standard states that "Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence."
Rappler provided a photo of just one car.
On 16 October 2021, Maria Ressa tweeted [1] and her Rappler claimed [2] that "[i]n Albay alone, about 4,000 to 5,000 vehicles joined the motorcades, which launched early in the morning at the main Legazpi City waterfront boulevard."
I found this claim interesting because the math seems to not add up.
1. Let's estimate the length of the convoy.
* Average car length of 4.80 meters (15.75 feet [3])
* Average distance between cars at 6.122 meters (2-second braking distance at 10 kph at 0° road gradient, i.e. flat road [4])
That is, there should be 6.122 + 4.80 = 10.922 meters of road per vehicle.
2. Now let's assume 4,500 vehicles joined the motorcade (midpoint of "4,000 to 5,000 vehicles" claim in Rappler article), so:
10.922 meters per vehicle × 4,500 vehicles = 49,159 meters = 49.159 kilometers.
3. The motorcade was intended to promote VP Leni Robredo, so it's safe to say that the participants wanted people to see as much of the motorcade as possible, so the vehicles involved should pass through major thoroughfares or at least, heavily populated locations, i.e. downtown Legazpi City.
4. The accompanying image of a potential route, made using Google maps [5] , passes through virtually all the major thoroughfares of Legazpi City, and is just 35.2 kilometers long. The route was designed to start at Legazpi Boulevard (bottom-right) as claimed in the article.
5. If the 4500-car convoy requires 49.159 km of roads, or a route that's about 40% longer than the route shown in the image, then it strongly suggests that for such a motorcade to exist, it must have taken up a vast majority of paved roads in Legazpi City.
6. If there were 4,500 cars running at a modest 10 kph (to minimize braking distance), then it follows that they must have clogged all major highways in Legazpi City, and this would have caused a major ruckus among motorists there. Adding the fact that this route is just ~35 km long, the motorcade, if it really existed, should have taken up most lanes of the main highways and in most cases, lanes from both directions. There were no such reports.
7. Now, if the cars were running at a more respectable 20kph with each driver having a reaction time of 2 seconds at 0° road gradient, the braking distance would have been 13.37 meters [4], so that each car would, in turn, require 4.8 + 13.37 = 18.17 meters of road, so that a 4,500-car convoy would require a total of 81.765 kilometers of roads, or over twice the length of the route shown in the photo.
8. If that were the case then one or more of the following must be true:
a. There was near-zero traffic in Legazpi that'd allow 4,500 cars to run at a near-uniform 20 kph despite the fact that the 81+ km of roads required would've put Legazpi's city-wide traffic to a standstill.
b. The participants passed through sparsely populated areas outside the city center, which is counterintuitive because trees and farmland do not vote.
In short, the claim "in Albay alone, 4,000 to 5,000 vehicles joined the motorcades, which launched early in the morning at the main Legazpi City waterfront boulevard" sounds a lot like bad fiction writing. Case in point, the calculations above do not even take into account the need for parking space in Legazpi Boulevard right before the motorcade started.
This whole issue can be put to rest if there were drone footage showing a decent number of cars mentioned, but I have yet to see any.
UPDATE: Several camps said there were multiple motorcades in multiple cities. Okay, so where are the long-range photos? Surely, at least a handful of those who joined the motorcade can afford to buy drone cameras, yet all I've seen so far are tight shots.
UPDATE 2: I checked the total number of vehicles registered in LTO District Offices in Albay per an FOI request [6]. 2020 figures state:
District Office (DO) / Number of Vehicles Registered
Ligao (Guinobatan) DO - 29,533
Legazpi DO - 59,218
Tabaco DO - 25,218
There are only 3 LTO district offices in Albay.
That is, 52% of all registered vehicles in Albay are in Legazpi City, so the actual participants in the motorcade in Legazpi should be around 52%, i.e. 4,500*.52 = 2,340 vehicles.
Moreover, the Manila Times report, written by the same person who wrote Rappler's article (Rhaydz Barcia), states "600 or so vehicles" [7] .
But even if we assume 2,340 cars in the Legazpi motorcade, that would've required approximately 25 km of roads (10kph convoy, 0 road gradient, 2 sec braking distance), which would have occupied virtually all thoroughfares in Legazpi City and still put citywide traffic to a standstill.
There were no reports of such.
SOURCES:
[1] Ressa, Maria (). "Bicol motorcades for Leni draw 4,000 vehicles". Tweet. 16 October 2021. https://twitter.com/mariaressa/status/1449297270113857536
[2] Rappler. "Bicol motorcades for Leni draw 4,000 vehicles". 16 October 2021. https://www.rappler.com/nation/elections/bicol-motorcades-leni-robredo-draw-thousands-vehicles
[3] "The length of the average midsize car is approximately 15.5 to 16 feet long."
Reference.com. "What Is the Width and Length of the Average Car?". 27 May 2020. https://www.reference.com/world-view/width-length-average-car-9eb7b00283fb1bd8
[4] Omnicalculator. Stopping Distance. https://www.omnicalculator.com/physics/stopping-distance
[5] Google Maps. https://www.google.com/maps/dir/Albay+Yacht+Club+boat+storage/Puro+Beach,+Legazpi+City/@13.1538751,123.7277016,14z/data=!4m69!4m68!1m60!1m1!1s0x33a103c7226bea85:0x98595c3d5225aff0!2m2!1d123.7614595!2d13.1367356!3m4!1m2!1d123.7158927!2d13.1422707!3s0x33a103fb0381ded9:0x96935f1b5315df14!3m4!1m2!1d123.7131085!2d13.1473891!3s0x33a103fc3280eca7:0xb734ef5eb6c639!3m4!1m2!1d123.708365!2d13.1485483!3s0x33a103ffa0ed082f:0x97212175c696ca79!3m4!1m2!1d123.7111636!2d13.1537054!3s0x33a1015449ed080f:0x12d3f478148b4a80!3m4!1m2!1d123.7176788!2d13.1535636!3s0x33a101575d968c39:0xf3ef780d25f1a1af!3m4!1m2!1d123.7237383!2d13.1573973!3s0x33a1015b5d8e68e5:0x4bbf843ec11b2ed9!3m4!1m2!1d123.7322709!2d13.1475681!3s0x33a101602af4a1f3:0xa9d126a0d1b8d4e7!3m4!1m2!1d123.7328708!2d13.1569496!3s0x33a1016626483695:0x3c4b3c7a3d0a7ff5!3m4!1m2!1d123.7363096!2d13.1780702!3s0x33a1011a178e509d:0xdcae71f5b5ef2763!3m4!1m2!1d123.7491342!2d13.1582441!3s0x33a101765f2e1703:0x722f75123960d99a!3m4!1m2!1d123.7534382!2d13.1465545!3s0x33a101804d58690b:0x2fe5e61491a003f4!1m5!1m1!1s0x33a1022f631879e1:0x6fb035c35746aa9c!2m2!1d123.762641!2d13.1359635!3e0
[6] PCOO eFOI request. https://www.foi.gov.ph/requests/aglzfmVmb2ktcGhyHQsSB0NvbnRlbnQiEExUTy0zMTU5ODkyNTA0NzQM
[7] Manila Times. Bicolanos launch caravan for Leni, Kiko. 18 October 2021. https://www.manilatimes.net/2021/10/18/news/regions/bicolanos-launch-caravan-for-leni-kiko/1818815
