17/11/2024
TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETIN NR. 16
Super Typhoon (MAN-YI)
Issued at 8:00 AM, 17 November 2024
Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin at 11:00 AM today.
SUPER TYPHOON “PEPITO” PASSES OVER THE WATERS NORTH OF CALAGUAS ISLANDS AND IS NOW OVER THE SEA EAST OF QUEZON
• Location of Center (7:00 AM):
The center of the eye of Super Typhoon PEPITO was estimated based on all available data including from Daet, and Baler Weather Radars over the coastal waters of Vinzons, Camarines Norte (14.9°N, 123.1°E).
• Intensity:
Maximum sustained winds of 185 km/h near the center, gustiness of up to 255 km/h, and central pressure of 925 hPa
• Present Movement:
Northwestward at 15 km/h
• Extent of Tropical Cyclone Winds:
Strong to typhoon-force winds extend outwards up to 300 km from the center
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNALS (TCWS) IN EFFECT
TCWS No. 5
• Wind threat: Typhoon-force winds
• Warning lead time: 12 hours
• Range of wind speeds: 185 km/h or higher (Beaufort 12)
• Potential impacts of winds: Extreme threat to life and property
Luzon:
The eastern portion of Polillo Islands (Patnanungan, Jomalig) and Calaguas Islands
TCWS No. 4
• Wind threat: Typhoon-force winds
• Warning lead time: 12 hours
• Range of wind speeds: 118 to 184 km/h (Beaufort 12)
• Potential impacts of winds: Significant to severe threat to life and property
Luzon:
The northernmost portion of Camarines Sur (Siruma), the rest of Camarines Norte, the northern portion of mainland Quezon (General Nakar, Infanta), the rest of Polillo Islands, the central and southern portions of Aurora (Dingalan, San Luis, Maria Aurora, Baler, Dipaculao, Dinalungan), the eastern portion of Nueva Ecija (General Tinio, Gabaldon, Laur, Bongabon, Palayan City, Pantabangan, Rizal, General Mamerto Natividad), the southeastern portion of Nueva Vizcaya (Alfonso Castañeda), and the southern portion of Quirino (Nagtipunan)
TCWS No. 3
• Wind threat: Storm-force winds
• Warning lead time: 18 hours
• Range of wind speeds: 89 to 117 km/h (Beaufort 10 to 11)
• Potential impacts of winds: Moderate to significant threat to life and property
Luzon:
The northern portion of Camarines Sur (Sipocot, Ragay, Magarao, Del Gallego, Libmanan, Naga City, Bombon, Lupi, Cabusao, Calabanga, Goa, San Jose, Lagonoy, Presentacion, Caramoan, Garchitorena, Tinambac, Canaman, Camaligan), the western portion of Catanduanes (Caramoran, Pandan, San Andres), the eastern portion of Quezon (Calauag, Guinayangan, Tagkawayan, Lopez, Quezon, Perez, Alabat, Gumaca, Plaridel, Atimonan, Mauban, Sampaloc, Real), the eastern portion of Laguna (Santa Maria, Famy, Mabitac, Pakil, Pangil, Siniloan, Paete, Kalayaan, Lumban, Cavinti), the eastern and central portions of Rizal (Pililla, Tanay, City of Antipolo, Rodriguez, Baras, San Mateo, Morong, Teresa), the rest of Aurora, the eastern and central portions of Bulacan (Norzagaray, San Miguel, San Ildefonso, San Rafael, Doña Remedios Trinidad, Angat, City of San Jose del Monte, Santa Maria, Pandi, Baliuag, Bustos, Pulilan, Plaridel), the northeastern portion of Pampanga (Candaba, Arayat, Magalang, San Luis, San Simon, Mexico, Santa Ana, Apalit, Santo Tomas, City of San Fernando, Mabalacat City, Angeles City), the rest of Nueva Ecija, Tarlac, the northern portion of Zambales (Santa Cruz, Candelaria, Masinloc, Palauig), the rest of Nueva Vizcaya, the rest of Quirino, the southern portion of Isabela (San Agustin, Jones, Echague, San Guillermo, Angadanan, Alicia, San Mateo, Ramon, San Isidro, City of Santiago, Cordon), the central and southern portions of Ilocos Sur (Alilem, Sugpon, Cervantes, Suyo, Tagudin, Narvacan, Quirino, Sigay, Gregorio del Pilar, San Emilio, Santa Cruz, Salcedo, Banayoyo, City of Candon, Galimuyod, Santa Lucia, Lidlidda, Santa Maria, Burgos, Santiago, San Esteban, Nagbukel), La Union, Pangasinan, Benguet, Ifugao, the western portion of Mountain Province (Sabangan, Bauko, Tadian, Bontoc, Sagada, Besao, Sadanga, Barlig), and the southern portion of Abra (Tubo, Luba, Pilar, Villaviciosa, San Isidro)
TCWS No. 2
• Wind threat: Gale-force winds
• Warning lead time: 24 hours
• Range of wind speeds: 62 to 88 km/h (Beaufort 8 to 9)
• Potential impacts of winds: Minor to moderate threat to life and property
Luzon:
Albay, the northern portion of Marinduque (Santa Cruz, Boac, Mogpog, Torrijos), the rest of Quezon, the rest of Laguna, the rest of Rizal, Cavite, the northern portion of Batangas (City of Tanauan, Santo Tomas, Talisay, Lipa City, Malvar, Balete, Mataasnakahoy, Laurel, Padre Garcia, San Juan, Rosario), Metro Manila, Bataan, the rest of Pampanga, the rest of Bulacan, the rest of Zambales, the southwestern portion of Cagayan (Enrile, Tuao, Solana, Tuguegarao City, Piat, Rizal), the rest of Isabela, the rest of Abra, the southern portion of Apayao (Conner, Kabugao), Kalinga, the rest of Mountain Province, the rest of Ilocos Sur, and the southern portion of Ilocos Norte (Pinili, City of Batac, Banna, Nueva Era, Badoc, Currimao, Marcos, Solsona, Dingras, Sarrat, Paoay, Laoag City, San Nicolas)
TCWS No. 1
• Wind threat: Strong winds
• Warning lead time: 36 hours
• Range of wind speeds: 39 to 61 km/h (Beaufort 6 to 7)
• Potential impacts of winds: Minimal to minor threat to life and property
Luzon:
The northern portion of Masbate (City of Masbate, Mobo, Aroroy, Baleno) including Ticao and Burias Islands, Sorsogon, the rest of Marinduque, the northern portion of Romblon (Cajidiocan, San Fernando, Magdiwang, Romblon, Banton, Corcuera, Concepcion, San Andres, Calatrava, San Agustin), the northern portion of Oriental Mindoro (Puerto Galera, San Teodoro, Naujan, Baco, Victoria, Socorro, Pinamalayan, Gloria, Pola, City of Calapan), the northern portion of Occidental Mindoro (Sablayan, Santa Cruz, Mamburao, Abra de Ilog, Paluan) including Lubang Islands, the rest of Batangas, the rest of mainland Cagayan, the rest of Apayao, and the rest of Ilocos Norte
OTHER HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND AREAS
○ Heavy Rainfall Outlook
Refer to Weather Advisory No. 50 issued at 8:00 AM today for the heavy rainfall outlook associated with “PEPITO”.
○ Severe Winds
The wind signals warn the public of the general wind threat over an area due to the tropical cyclone. Local winds may be slightly stronger/enhanced in coastal and upland/mountainous areas exposed to winds. Winds are less strong in areas sheltered from the prevailing wind direction.
• Extreme impacts from typhoon-force winds are possible within any of the areas under Wind Signal No. 5.
• Significant to severe impacts from typhoon-force winds are possible within any of the areas under Wind Signal No. 4.
• Moderate to significant impacts from storm-force winds are possible within any of the areas under Wind Signal No. 3.
• Minor to moderate impacts from gale-force winds are possible within any of the areas under Wind Signal No. 2.
• Minimal to minor impacts from strong winds are possible within any of the areas under Wind Signal No. 1.
○ Coastal Inundation
There is a high risk of life-threatening storm surge with peak surge heights exceeding 3.0 m in the next 48 hours over the low-lying or exposed coastal localities of Ilocos Region (western coast), Isabela, Central Luzon, Metro Manila, CALABARZON, Marinduque, Bicol Region, Northern Samar, Samar, and Eastern Samar. Refer to Storm Surge Warning No. 10 issued at 8:00 AM today for the details.
HAZARDS AFFECTING COASTAL WATERS
A Gale Warning is hoisted over the eastern, western, and southern seaboards of Luzon and the eastern seaboard of Visayas. Refer to Gale Warning No. 13 issued at 5:00 AM today for the details.
○ 24-Hour Sea Condition Outlook
Note: These are forecast sea condition over the coastal waters and not related to storm surge heights or inundation.
Up to very rough, high, or very high seas over the following coastal waters:
• Up to 14.0 m: The northern and eastern seaboards of Polillo Islands; the seaboard of Aurora
• Up to 12.0 m: The seaboard of Camarines Norte
• Up to 9.0 m: The seaboard of northern Quezon
• Up to 8.0 m: The seaboard of Isabela.
• Up to 7.0 m: The northern and eastern seaboards of Catanduanes; the northern seaboard of Camarines Sur
• Up to 5.0 m: The eastern seaboards of mainland Cagayan, Camarines Sur, and Albay; the remaining seaboards of Polillo Islands and Catanduanes.
• Up to 4.5 m: The seaboards of Sorsogon and Northern Samar; the eastern seaboard of Eastern Samar; the remaining seaboards of Camarines Sur, Albay, and Quezon; the seaboards of Ilocos Region, Masbate including Burias and Ticao Islands, and Marinduque
• Sea travel is risky for all types or tonnage of vessels. All mariners must remain in port or, if underway, seek shelter or safe harbor as soon as possible until winds and waves subside.
Up to rough seas over the following coastal waters:
• Up to 4.0 m: The seaboards of Batanes, northern Cagayan including Babuyan Islands, and Zambales
• Up to 3.0 m: The seaboards of Romblon; the remaining seaboards of Zambales; the eastern seaboard of Oriental Mindoro
• Mariners of small seacrafts, including all types of motorbancas, are advised not to venture out to sea under these conditions, especially if inexperienced or operating ill-equipped vessels.
Up to moderate seas over the following coastal waters:
• Up to 2.5 m: The western seaboard of Bataan; the eastern seaboard of Dinagat Islands
• Up to 2.0 m: The seaboards of Metro Manila, Aklan, Antique, northeastern Iloilo, northern Negros Occidental, northern Cebu including Bantayan Islands, and Biliran; the northern and eastern seaboards of Leyte; the eastern seaboards of Southern Leyte, Surigao del Sur, Davao Oriental; the northern and western seaboards of Dinagat Islands; the remaining seaboards of Bataan and CALABARZON; the northern seaboards of Occidental Mindoro including Lubang Islands and Oriental Mindoro.
• Mariners of motorbancas and similarly-sized vessels are advised to take precautionary measures while venturing out to sea and, if possible, avoid navigation under these conditions.
TRACK AND INTENSITY OUTLOOK
• PEPITO is forecast to move generally west northwestward over the waters north of Camarines Provinces and east of Quezon this morning. It will then pass close or over Polillo Islands by late morning, before making landfall over northern Quezon or central or southern Aurora between this noon and afternoon. Afterwards, PEPITO will cross the northern portion of Central Luzon and the southern portion of Northern Luzon along the upland areas of Sierra Madre, Caraballo, and Cordillera Central between this afternoon and evening. PEPITO will emerge over the coastal waters of Pangasinan or La Union tonight or tomorrow (18 November) early morning.
• Over the West Philippine Sea, PEPITO will continue moving generally west northwestward tomorrow. It may exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) by tomorrow morning or afternoon. Outside the PAR region, the tropical cyclone will turn more westward or west southwestward on Tuesday (19 November).
• It must be emphasized that heavy rainfall, severe winds, and storm surge may still be experienced in localities outside the landfall point and the forecast confidence cone. Refer to “Other Hazards affecting Land Areas” for more details. Furthermore, the track may still shift within the limit of the forecast confidence cone.
• PEPITO is forecast to slightly weaken as a typhoon prior to its second landfall. Significant weakening will occur during the passage of this tropical cyclone over mainland Luzon today. PEPITO may weaken into a severe tropical storm over mainland Luzon, and further weakening over the West Philippine Sea is likely due to the incoming northeasterly wind surge.
Considering these developments, the public and disaster risk reduction and management offices concerned are advised to take all necessary measures to protect life and property. Persons living in areas identified to be highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards are advised to follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. For heavy rainfall warnings, thunderstorm/rainfall advisories, and other severe weather information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your local PAGASA Regional Services Division.
The next tropical cyclone bulletin will be issued at 11:00 AM today.
DOST-PAGASA
Links:
➣ TC Bulletin for Pepito: http://tinyurl.com/tcb-pepito
➣ Weather Advisory: http://tinyurl.com/wx-adv
➣ Gale Warning: http://tinyurl.com/wx-gale
➣ Storm Surge: http://tinyurl.com/wx-surge
➣ TC Warning Agriculture: http://tinyurl.com/tc-warning-agri
