24/10/2020
Severe Weather Bulletin #3
Tropical Depression " "
Tropical Cyclone: ALERT
ISSUED AT 11:00 AM, 24 October 2020
(Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin to be issued at 5 PM today)
TROPICAL DEPRESSION "QUINTA" SLIGHTLY ACCELERATES WHILE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA.
Track and intensity outlook:
• Track: Tropical Depression "QUINTA" will move generally west-northwestward or northwestward today, then will turn westward tomorrow morning through Monday. The center of “QUINTA” is forecast to make landfall over Bicol Region between Sunday evening and Monday morning, then track westward over the Southern Luzon area on Monday.
• Intensity: “QUINTA” is forecast to steadily intensify to tropical storm category within 12 hours and may reach severe tropical storm category prior to landfall. After crossing the Philippine archipelago, this tropical cyclone may continue intensifying over the West Philippine Sea.
Hazards affecting land:
• Rainfall: Today, the troughs of both Tropical Depression “QUINTA” and Severe Tropical Storm “SAUDEL” outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) will bring light to moderate with at times heavy rains over MIMAROPA, Bicol Region, Visayas, Zamboanga Peninsula, Bangsamoro, Northern Mindanao, and Caraga. Moreover, a stationary front currently extending over Extreme Northern Luzon associated with the northeasterly surge will bring moderate to heavy rains over Cagayan Valley and the northern portions of Apayao and Ilocos Norte.
• Strong Winds: Tropical cyclone wind signal (TCWS) #1 is currently in effect over Catanduanes. Strong to near gale-force winds will be experienced over areas under TCWS #1 within 36 hours of first raising of the wind signal. Based on available meteorological data, TCWS #1 may be raised over Albay, Sorsogon, Northern Samar, and the eastern portion of Camarines Sur in the next bulletin. Strong to gale-force winds associated with a northeasterly surge will be experienced over Batanes, Babuyan Islands, and the northern coastal areas of Ilocos Norte and mainland Cagayan.
Hazards affecting coastal waters:
• Gale warning is in effect over the seaboards of Northern Luzon, and the western seaboards of Central Luzon, Batangas, Occidental Mindoro, and northern Palawan including Calamian and Kalayaan Islands due to rough to very rough seas (2.8 to 6.0 m). Sea travel is risky over these areas, especially for small seacrafts.
• Moderate to rough seas (1.5 to 2.5 m) will prevail over the western seaboard of southern Palawan and the eastern seaboards of Central and Southern Luzon. Mariners of small seacrafts are advised to take precautionary measures when venturing out to sea. Inexperienced mariners should avoid navigating in these conditions.
Other disturbance being monitored:
• At 10:00 AM today, the center of Severe Tropical Storm "SAUDEL” outside the PAR was estimated based on all available data at 805 km West of Northern Luzon (18.3°N,113.0°E). It has maximum sustained winds of 110 km/h near the center and gustiness of up to 135 km/h. It is moving west-northwestward at 10 km/h and is heading towards the central portion of Vietnam.
Location of eye/center:
• At 10:00 AM today, the center of Tropical Depression "QUINTA" was estimated based on all available data at 660 km East of Catarman, Northern Samar or 730 km East of Juban, Sorsogon(12.8°N, 130.7°E).
Strength:
• Maximum sustained winds of 55 km/h near the center and gustiness of up to 70 km/h.
Movement:
Moving West Northwestward at 30 km/h.
Forecast Positions:
• 24 Hour (Tomorrow morning): 320 km East of Virac, Catanduanes (13.6°N, 127.2°E)
• 48 Hour (Monday morning):In the vicinity of Libmanan, Camarines Sur (13.6°N, 123.0°E)
• 72 Hour (Tuesday morning): 265 km West of Ambulong, Batangas (13.9°N, 118.6°E)
• 96 Hour (Wednesday morning):665 km West of Subic, Zambales (OUTSIDE PAR) (14.9°N, 114.1°E)
• 120 Hour (Thursday morning):1,020 km West of Northern Luzon (OUTSIDE PAR) (15.7°N, 110.8°E)
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNAL
TCWS #1 (30-60 km/h winds prevailing or expected in 36 hours)
LUZON:
Catanduanes
Impacts of the wind:
• Very light or no damage to low risk structures,
• Light damage to medium to high risk structures
• Slight damage to some houses of very light materials or makeshift structures in exposed communities. Some banana plants are tilted, a few downed and leaves are generally damaged
• Twigs of small trees may be broken.
• Rice crops, however, may suffer significant damage when it is in its flowering stage.
The public and the disaster risk reduction and management council concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next Severe Weather Bulletin to be issued at 5 PM today.
Link: http://bagong.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/tropical-cyclone/severe-weather-bulletin/2
