18/12/2023
TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETIN NR. 12
Tropical Depression (JELAWAT)
Issued at 2:00 PM, 18 December 2023
Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin at 5:00 PM today.
“KABAYAN” SLIGHTLY WEAKENS AS IT ACCELERATES WEST NORTHWESTWARD
Location of Center (1:00 PM)
The center of Tropical Depression KABAYAN was estimated based on all available data in the vicinity of Loreto, Agusan del Sur (8.1°N, 125.7°E)
Intensity
Maximum sustained winds of 45 km/h near the center, gustiness of up to 75 km/h, and central pressure of 1004 hPa
Present Movement: West Northwestward at 20 km/h
Extent of Tropical Cyclone Winds
Strong to gale-force winds extend outwards up to 420 km from the center
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNALS (TCWS) IN EFFECT
TCWS No. 1
Wind threat: Strong winds
Warning lead time: 36 hours
Range of wind speeds: 39 to 61 km/h (Beaufort 6 to 7)
Potential impacts of winds: Minimal to minor threat to life and property
Luzon
The southern portion of Palawan (Sofronio Española, Brooke's Point, Bataraza, Balabac, Rizal, Quezon, Narra) including Cagayancillo Islands
Visayas
Southern Leyte, Leyte, the southern portion of Samar (Basey, Santa Rita, Marabut, Talalora, Villareal, Pinabacdao), the southern portion of Eastern Samar (Maydolong, City of Borongan, Quinapondan, Guiuan, Lawaan, Balangiga, Llorente, Giporlos, Salcedo, Balangkayan, General Macarthur, Hernani, Mercedes), Cebu including Camotes Islands, Bantayan Islands, Bohol, Siquijor, Negros Oriental, Negros Occidental and Guimaras
Mindanao
Misamis Oriental, Camiguin, Bukidnon, Davao de Oro, the northern portion of Davao Oriental (Baganga, Manay, Caraga, Tarragona, Lupon, Banaybanay, Boston, Cateel), Misamis Occidental, Lanao del Norte, Lanao del Sur, Davao del Norte, Davao City, the northern portion of Cotabato (Arakan, Carmen, Banisilan, Alamada, President Roxas, Kabacan, Matalam, Antipas, Magpet, Libungan, Pigkawayan), the northern portion of Maguindanao (Buldon, Barira, Matanog, Parang, Sultan Kudarat, Sultan Mastura), the western and central portion of Zamboanga del Norte (Siayan, Sindangan, Jose Dalman, Manukan, Pres. Manuel A. Roxas, Sergio Osmeña Sr., Katipunan, Dipolog City, Polanco, Mutia, Piñan, Dapitan City, Sibutad, La Libertad, Rizal, Siocon, Baliguian, Gutalac, Labason, Kalawit, Tampilisan, Liloy, Salug, Godod, Bacungan), the western and central portion of Zamboanga del Sur (Midsalip, Labangan, Tukuran, Aurora, Sominot, Ramon Magsaysay, Tambulig, Dumingag, Mahayag, Josefina, Molave, Vincenzo A. Sagun, Guipos, Dimataling, Dumalinao, Lakewood, Dinas, San Pablo, Tigbao, Tabina, Kumalarang, Lapuyan, Pitogo, Margosatubig, San Miguel, Bayog, Pagadian City), Zamboanga Sibugay, Dinagat Islands, Surigao del Norte, Agusan del Norte, Surigao del Sur and Agusan del Sur
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND AREAS
Heavy Rainfall Outlook
Forecast accumulated rainfall from today to tomorrow afternoon
• 100-200 mm: Surigao del Sur, Surigao del Norte, Dinagat Islands, Agusan del Sur, Davao del Norte, Davao de Oro, and Davao Oriental.
• 50-100 mm: Central Visayas, Biliran, Leyte, Southern Leyte, Zamboanga del Norte, Northern Mindanao, Davao City, Cotabato, Lanao del Sur, the southern portions of Samar and Eastern Samar, and the rest of Caraga, Davao Oriental, Davao de Oro, and Davao del Norte.
Forecast accumulated rainfall from tomorrow afternoon to Wednesday afternoon
• 50-100 mm: Mainland Palawan, Cuyo Islands, Cagayancillo Islands, and Kalayaan Islands
Forecast rainfall are generally higher in elevated or mountainous areas. Under these conditions, flooding and rain-induced landslides are likely especially in areas that are highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards as identified in hazard maps and in localities that experienced considerable amounts of rainfall for the past several days.
In addition, the Shear Line coinciding with the passage of KABAYAN may bring heavy rainfall over the eastern portion of Southern Luzon. For more information, refer to Weather Advisory No. 5 issued at 11:00 AM today and 24-Hour Public Weather Forecast and Outlook at 4:00 AM today.
Severe Winds
The wind signals warn the public of the general wind threat over an area due to the tropical cyclone. Local winds may be slightly stronger/enhanced in coastal and upland/mountainous areas exposed to winds. Winds are less strong in areas sheltered from the prevailing wind direction.
• Minimal to minor impacts from strong winds are possible within any of the areas under Wind Signal No. 1.
The surge of the Northeast Monsoon will bring also gusty conditions for the next 2 days over the following areas not under any Wind Signal, especially in coastal and upland/mountainous areas exposed to winds:
• Today and Tomorrow: Most of Luzon and Visayas
HAZARDS AFFECTING COASTAL WATERS
Under the influence of the Northeast Monsoon surge and Tropical Depression KABAYAN, a Gale Warning is in effect for the coastal waters along the seaboard of Northern Luzon, the eastern and central seaboards of Visayas, and the eastern seaboards of Central Luzon, Southern Luzon, and Mindanao. Sea travel is risky for small seacraft (including all motor bancas of any type or tonnage). Mariners of these vessels are advised to remain in port or seek safe harbor. For more information, refer to Gale Warning No.5 issued at 5:00 AM today.
Outside the coastal waters under Gale Warning, moderate to rough seas are likely over the western seaboards of Central (1.5-3.5 m) and Southern Luzon, the western and northern seaboards of Mindanao, and the remaining seaboard of Visayas (1.25-3.0 m). Mariners of motor bancas and similarly-sized vessels are advised to take precautionary measures while venturing out to sea and, if possible, avoid navigating in these conditions, especially if inexperienced or operating ill-equipped vessels.
TRACK AND INTENSITY OUTLOOK
• Hazards such as severe wind and heavy rainfall may be experienced in areas that are not close to the track forecast. Refer to the “Hazards affecting land areas” for more detailed information.
• KABAYAN is forecast to track generally westward or west northwestward path across the Philippine archipelago over the next two days. On the track forecast, KABAYAN will continue to cross the rugged terrain of Mindanao, and emerge over the Sulu Sea between this afternoon and evening. Due to frictional effects associated with landfall, KABAYAN is forecast to further weaken, and the possibility of being downgraded into a low pressure area while over land or after emerging over the sea is not ruled out (although in such a case, re-development may still occur over the Sulu Sea).
• Afterwards, KABAYAN will move across the Sulu Sea south of Cagayancillo Islands. The tropical cyclone is forecast to make another landfall over central or southern Palawan as a tropical depression by tomorrow morning or afternoon, then emerge over the West Philippine Sea shortly thereafter. KABAYAN may pass near or over Kalayaan Islands between tomorrow evening and Wednesday morning.
• The current track and intensity forecast may still change given the nature and strength of this tropical cyclone.
Considering these developments, the public and disaster risk reduction and management offices concerned are advised to take all necessary measures to protect life and property. Persons living in areas identified to be highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards are advised to follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. For heavy rainfall warnings, thunderstorm/rainfall advisories, and other severe weather information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your local PAGASA Regional Services Division.
The next tropical cyclone bulletin will be issued at 5:00 PM today.
DOST-PAGASA
