26/08/2023
WEATHER UPDATES
TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETIN NR. 10
Typhoon (SAOLA)
Issued at 11:00 AM, 26 August 2023
Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin at 5:00 PM today.
GORING STEADILY INTENSIFIES AS IT MOVES SOUTH SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE SEA EAST OF BABUYAN ISLANDS
Location of Center (10:00 AM): The center of the eye of Typhoon GORING was estimated based on all available data, including those from Aparri Weather Radar, at 155 km East of Aparri, Cagayan (18.3°N, 123.1°E)
Intensity: Maximum sustained winds of 150 km/h near the center, gustiness of up to 185 km/h, and central pressure of 965 hPa
Present Movement: South Southwestward at 10 km/h
Extent of Tropical Cyclone Winds: Strong to typhoon-force winds extend outwards up to 220 km from the center
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNALS (TCWS) IN EFFECT
TCWS No. 3
Luzon
Wind threat: Storm-force winds
The northeastern portion of Cagayan (Santa Ana) and the extreme eastern portion of Isabela (Divilacan, Palanan)
Warning lead time: 18 hours
Range of wind speeds: 89 to 117 km/h (Beaufort 10 to 11)
Potential impacts of winds: Moderate to significant threat to life and property
TCWS No. 2
Luzon
Wind threat: Gale-force winds
The eastern portion of Isabela (Dinapigue, San Mariano, Ilagan City, Maconacon, Cabagan, Tumauini, San Pablo), eastern portion of Cagayan (Peñablanca, Baggao, Gattaran, Lal-Lo, Gonzaga, Santa Teresita, Buguey), and the northern portion of Aurora (Dilasag, Casiguran)
Warning lead time: 24 hours
Range of wind speeds: 62 to 88 km/h (Beaufort 8 to 9)
Potential impacts of winds: Minor to moderate threat to life and property
TCWS No. 1
Luzon
Wind threat: Strong winds
Batanes, the rest of Cagayan including Babuyan Islands, central portion of Aurora (Dinalungan, Dipaculao), Quirino, the rest of Isabela, Apayao, eastern portion of Nueva Vizcaya (Kasibu, Quezon, Diadi, Bagabag, Solano, Villaverde), eastern portion of Ifugao (Lamut, Lagawe, Hingyon, Banaue, Mayoyao, Aguinaldo, Alfonso Lista), eastern portion of Mountain Province (Barlig, Natonin, Paracelis), and Kalinga - -
Warning lead time: 36 hours
Range of wind speeds: 39 to 61 km/h (Beaufort 6 to 7)
Potential impacts of winds: Minimal to minor threat to life and property
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND AREAS
Heavy Rainfall
Forecast accumulated rainfall from today to tomorrow noon
• 100-200 mm: The eastern portion of mainland Cagayan and Isabela
• 50-100 mm: Babuyan Islands, the rest of mainland Cagayan and Isabela, the northern portion of Aurora, Cordillera Administrative Region, and Ilocos Region.
Forecast accumulated rainfall from tomorrow noon to Monday noon
• 100-200 mm: The eastern portion of mainland Cagayan
• 50-100 mm: Babuyan Islands, the rest of mainland Cagayan, the eastern portion of Isabela, Cordillera Administrative Region, Ilocos Norte, and the northern portion of Aurora.
Forecast rainfall are generally higher in elevated or mountainous areas. Under these conditions, flooding and rain-induced landslides are possible especially in areas that are highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards as identified in hazard maps and in localities that experienced considerable amounts of rainfall for the past several days.
The Southwest Monsoon enhanced by GORING will bring occasional or monsoon rains over the western portions of Central Luzon, Southern Luzon, and Visayas over the next three days. For more information, refer to Weather Advisory #4 for Southwest Monsoon issued at 11:00 AM today and the 24-Hour Public Weather Forecast and Outlook at 4:00 AM today.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND AREAS
Severe Winds
Moderate to significant impacts from storm-force winds may be experienced within the areas under Wind Signal No. 3. Minor to moderate impacts from gale-force winds are possible within any of the areas where Wind Signal No. 2 is in effect. Minimal to minor impacts from strong winds are also possible within any of the areas where Wind Signal No.1 is hoisted.
The wind signals warn the public of the general wind threat over an area due to the tropical cyclone. Local winds may be slightly stronger/enhanced in coastal and upland/mountainous areas exposed to winds. Winds are less strong in areas sheltered from the prevailing wind direction.
The enhanced Southwest Monsoon will continue to bring gusty conditions over the following areas not under any Wind Signal, especially in coastal and upland/mountainous areas exposed to winds:
• Today: Bataan, Metro Manila, CALABARZON, Bicol Region and most of MIMAROPA.
• Tomorrow: Bataan, Metro Manila, CALABARZON, MIMAROPA, Bicol Region, Visayas, Dinagat Islands, and Camiguin
• Monday: Bataan, Metro Manila, CALABARZON, MIMAROPA, Bicol Region, Visayas, Dinagat Islands, Camiguin, and most of Zamboanga Peninsula.
HAZARDS AFFECTING COASTAL WATERS
A Gale Warning is in effect for the northern and eastern coastal waters of Northern Luzon and the eastern coastal waters of Central Luzon. Sea travel is risky for certain types or tonnage of vessels over these areas. Disruption in civilian maritime activities is expected over these waters (e.g., suspension of sea travel). For more information, refer to Gale Warning #3 issued at 5:00 AM today.
TRACK AND INTENSITY OUTLOOK
• GORING is forecast to move generally southward to southwestward today until tomorrow, then will turn generally eastward to northeastward on Sunday. Afterwards, the typhoon will exit its looping path and move northwestward on Tuesday towards the sea east of Taiwan while moving on a consistent pace.
• Due to highly favorable environment, GORING is forecast steadily intensify throughout most of the forecast period and may reach super typhoon category on Monday. Upwelling of cooler waters due to its slow movement will limit further intensification by late Monday or early Tuesday.
Considering these developments, the public and disaster risk reduction and management offices concerned are advised to take all necessary measures to protect life and property. Persons living in areas identified to be highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards are advised to follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. For heavy rainfall warnings, thunderstorm/rainfall advisories, and other severe weather information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your local PAGASA Regional Services Division.
The next tropical cyclone bulletin will be issued at 5:00 PM today.
DOST-PAGASA
https://tinyurl.com/GoringPH
SOURCE - Dost_pagasa
