07/07/2021
TAAL UPDATE: DERETSAHIN KO NA PO KAYO
TV series of eruption today and ano na ba next at hanggang kelan na ganito? Yan po ang mga nasa agam-agam ng marami? Hindi na po ako magpapaligoy-ligoy pa since nasabi na din po ng phivolcs na this could go on for a while at ihanda ang mga sarili sa long haul. Tama po sila, hindi man po nila nasabi ang dahilan kung bakit but my wild guess is that parehas na po kami ng tinutumbok. Understandable na me step by step process sila and will inform the stakeholders as the day progresses and this is to manage and balance the political and economic/financial strain that this crisis will do to our government and to business operators affected by this eruption. Ako ay walang constraints na gaya nila so nakafocus ako sa pagtulong sa mamamayan in general na apektado dito. Kailangan nyo pong malaman ang dahilan at masagot ang mga agam-agam at fears sa mga hinaharap para maihanda ang mga sarili and mastabilize nyo ang inyong mga normal na buhay. I feel your agony and restlessness and kailangang maiwasan sa maaga pa lang yong mental effect ng tv crisis so hopefully po with this info ay makatulong ito sa personal risks assessments nyo as well as sa mga LGU and risks managers. Hangad ko ang kaligtasan ng lahat at ang ikakabuti ng mga kababayan ko. Don't panic, draw a plan and execute it🙏
TV mc is undergoing so much straining at the moment and edifice stress is building up. Ang magma chamber nya ay nawawalan ng pressure at ang magma ay nadaloy palabas ng chamber na nasa 5km depth so nababakante ang ilalim ng edifice at undergoing severe stress ang mga faults dito. Malaking pressure ang nawawala at ang roof ng chamber ay nababa dahil wala na yong pressure na natukod dito dati para manataling in place kaya naslumping po ito at ang mc floor ay asahan na magdrop down significantly in a step by step progression at ang crater rim ay lalawak dahil yong ring d***s na nauna ng nabuo ay magdrop down din. Unti-unti po itong magaganap in stages at nilakip ko po ang illustration ng cycle of collapse/explosion EQ series sequence. Photo credit to Brain Shiro of USGS. A stronger eq might occur too in the near future due to changes in stress fields sa mga fault lines sa paligid. In stages po itong cycle then after mag drop down ng summit crater and inside rim collapse ay paulit ulit ito na magaganap until the floor disintegrate and drops to the chamber and a climactic eruption takes place. Dito na po ang pinakamatinding eruption magaganap. Pwedeng large basalt lava flow with fountaining (Strombolian) or explosive type known as pyroclastic eruption and pwedeng makacreate ng malawak na base surge reach & geohazard associated with it. Pwede ding maghalt ang collapse/explosion stages in the middle of the process if me new magma intrusion from the depth which will change the whole process (hindi pa ito nagaganap so wala pa sa senaryong ito sa ngayon) at maiba ang uri ng eruption na mangyari and we will discuss this is me pagbabagong magaganap in the future.
Gaano ba kalaki ang eruption? Depende po yan sa magmatic condition at sa presensya ng tubig sa plumbing system at sa external factor sa mc lake kung matuyuan ng laman and internally ay ang hydrothermal reservoirs if matuyuan ng fluids. If matuyuan ay non-explosive eruption type (lava flow and fountaining) but hanggat naanjan ang fluids ay di mawawala ang explosive phreatomagmatic sa equation (pati na rin ang phreatic eruption) at yong mataas na risk ng base surge and yong malilikha nitong distorbo sa tubig ng caldera at ang dalang mga hot & burning ejectiles na iluluwa at isasaboy/ibabato ng bunganga ng bulkan. Dahil nagkakaroon ng subsidence ay kahit matuyuan ang mc ng tubig ay posibleng yong caldera water mas tumaas pa kesa sa landmass ng tvi na pwedeng magprovide din ng liquids for gas conversion and power the eruption. This happened in the past and usually history repeats itself.
For now nasa early stages pa lang ng depressurization-triggered eruption si tv and it could go on for months and in some volcanoes it went on and on for years or decades. The most recent calderagenic eruption na similar sa nagaganap ke tv now is the year 2000 caldera collapse of Miyake-jima caldera of Japan. As I mentioned a few days ago, this volcano island is called Gas Mask Island dahil ang mga naninirahan dito ay kinailangan na magsuot ng gas mask dahil sa toxic vog na nasa 40k to 50k t/d at peak ay umabot sa 54,000 t/d ang binuga na SO2. Ang Miyake-jima caldera eruption of 2000 ay nag umpisa ng June at natapos ang collapses in August ng mag climactic eruption na. From June to August ay series of phreatomagmatic at phreatic ang eruptions parang ginagawa ni tv now na small phreatomagmatic then me mga outburst na bigger explosive eruptions with pyroclastic density currents (PDC) at relyebo po yan na naganap me small then large ones until the floor finally collapsed into the magma chamber and a 16km to 17.5km pyroclastic plume took place during the climactic eruption. After the climactic eruption, SO2 degassing continued at very high tonage per day and the residents could no longer live in the island kaya the Japanese government relocated them at umabot po ng 5 years yong supertaas na SO2 degassing ni Miyake-jima. In comparison, Miyake is 8km circumference ang island vs tv na 5km. Yong PDC reach of Miyake ay umabot sa 5km from the island to the sea. This could also happen kay tv, not exactly dahil me magpapakiba sila na uri ng bulkan. Si tv in some ways ay naiiba at merong malaking caldera lake na freshwater sa paligid ng tvi vs seawater ng Miyake. Yong malaking kaibahan nila ay yong presensya ng giant hydrothermal reservoir ni tv na ang laman ay superheated magmatic fluids and trapped high temperature gases. Tectonic settings also differs. Si tv ay sitting in the center of a rift zone graben so naanjan yong risk ng new magma supply coming in at high volume and joining the show. It is like comparing an orange and an apple so we can't compare but we can use Miyake-jima as a guide to give you an idea of what the future wpuld be like for you all na nasa paligid ni tv. Mas maigi po na malaman nyo ang mga ito as early as now. Not to cause panic but a heads up and to give you a tool for planning ahead. Have a plan B drawn and decide to take the risk and stay put in a wait and see situation (very high risk) or to take the plan B and try to make a life & live muna somewhere safe until this crisis is over. Marami ang hanapbuhay nasa lawa, naiintindihan ko po yan pero health is wealth and kung toxic ang paligid ng lawa at fatal ang hanging malalanghap nyo kahit after ng crater collapse and yong posibilidad na ang chemistry ng lawa ay maging toxic din sa mga living things neto ay posible pong hindi din kayo makakapag alaga ng isda dito dahil yong risk ng fish kill tataas din and most importantly risk to you and your family's life. Here is the link of what happened to Miyake-jima and its residents, pls read it po as this might help you measure your risk and draw up a plan for you and your family. Hindi ko po masasagot kung hanggang saan ang vog coverage dahil nakadepende po yan sa daily weather pattern.
https://volcano.si.edu/showreport.cfm?doi=10.5479/si.GVP.BGVN200007-284040
This second link is not public po but you'll still get the general view of what happened. Wala pa akong makitang studies pa na nakapublic na less ang scientific and mathematical jargons so ito po muna basahin nyo at hahanap ako sa archives ko ng mga uni studies for Miyakejima https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00445-004-0404-4
For Clinicians/medical personnel & LGU, you can use this below link to manage your constinuency's health issues now & in the future https://clinmedjournals.org/articles/ijccem/international-journal-of-critical-care-and-emergency-medicine-ijccem-4-040.php?jid=ijccem
P.S. Pasensya po sa mga hindi ko nasasagot sa pm at comments, sobrang lack of time po ako to do so at nagpeprepare din po kasi ako ng field class ko so mawawala po ako in the next 2 to 3 wks kaya inadvance ko na po ang mga sasabihin ko para kayo din ay me advance na planning. Of course with tv ay pwedeng magbago ang lahat in an instant dahil marami po syang mga hidden tricks this is why I don't dare assess this volcano lightly dahil sa wide scenarios na kaya nyang gawin at nagawa na nya in the past. Kaya tinawag na Beast Caldera si tv because he is a scary beast. I pray for safety of all, may God protect everyone and provide you the needed strength as you sail through this storm🙏🙏🙏
