23/07/2024
TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETIN NR. 14
Typhoon CARINA (GAEMI)
Issued at 5:00 AM, 23 July 2024
Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin at 11:00 AM today.
TYPHOON โCARINAโ MAINTAINS ITS STRENGTHEN WHILE MOVING NORTH NORTHWESTWARD
Location of Center (4:00 AM):
The center of Typhoon CARINA was estimated based on all available data at 380 km East of Aparri, Cagayan (18.9ยฐN, 125.2ยฐE)
Intensity:
Maximum sustained winds of 130 km/h near the center, gustiness of up to 160 km/h, and central pressure of 975 hPa
Present Movement:
North Northwestward at 10 km/h
Extent of Tropical Cyclone Winds:
Strong to typhoon-force winds extend outwards up to 560 km from the center
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNALS (TCWS) IN EFFECT
TCWS No. 1
โ Wind threat: Strong winds
โ Warning lead time: 36 hours
โ Range of wind speeds: 39 to 61 km/h (Beaufort 6 to 7)
โ Potential impacts of winds: Minimal to minor threat to life and property
LUZON:
Batanes, Babuyan Islands, the northern and eastern portions of mainland Cagayan (Santa Ana, Gattaran, Baggao, Peรฑablanca, Lal-Lo, Gonzaga, Buguey, Santa Teresita, Aparri, Camalaniugan, Ballesteros, Allacapan, Abulug, Pamplona, Claveria, Sanchez-Mira, Santa Praxedes, Lasam, Alcala), the eastern portion of Isabela (Divilacan, Palanan, Maconacon, Dinapigue, Tumauini, Ilagan City, San Mariano, Cabagan, San Pablo, Santa Maria), the northern portion of Apayao (Calanasan, Luna, Pudtol, Flora, Santa Marcela), the northern portion of Ilocos Norte (Pagudpud, Bangui, Adams, Dumalneg, Burgos, Vintar), the northern portion of Aurora (Dilasag, Casiguran), Polillo Islands, Calaguas Islands, and the northern portion of Catanduanes (Pandan, Bagamanoc, Panganiban, Viga, Gigmoto, Caramoran)
OTHER HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND AREAS
Heavy Rainfall Outlook
Forecast accumulated rainfall: Today
โข 100-200 mm: Batanes, Babuyan Islands
โข 50-100 mm: Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, La Union, Abra, Benguet, Apayao, and Cagayan
Forecast accumulated rainfall: Tomorrow (24 July)
โข 100-200 mm: Batanes
โข 50-100 mm: Babuyan Islands
Forecast accumulated rainfall: Thursday (25 July)
โข 50-100 mm: Batanes
Forecast rainfall are generally higher in elevated or mountainous areas. Under these conditions, flooding and rain-induced landslides are possible especially in areas that are highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards as identified in official hazard maps and in localities that experienced considerable amounts of rainfall for the past several days.
Furthermore, the Southwest Monsoon enhanced by CARINA will bring moderate to intense rainfall over various localities in the western portion of Luzon today through Thursday. For more information, refer to Weather Advisory No. 26 issued at 11:00 PM yesterday.
Severe Winds
Minimal to minor impacts due to strong winds may be experienced within any of the localities where Wind Signal No. 1 is hoisted.
The Southwest Monsoon enhanced by CARINA will also bring strong to gale-force gusts over the following areas (especially in coastal and upland areas exposed to winds):
โข Today: Ilocos Region, Abra, Benguet, Nueva Vizcaya, Quirino, Zambales, Bataan, Aurora, Metro Manila, CALABARZON, MIMAROPA, Bicol Region, Visayas, Zamboanga Peninsula, Northern Mindanao, and Davao Region
โข Tomorrow: Babuyan Islands, Ilocos Region, Abra, Benguet, Nueva Vizcaya, Quirino, Central Luzon, Metro Manila, CALABARZON, MIMAROPA, Bicol Region, Visayas, Zamboanga Peninsula, and Northern Mindanao
โข Thursday: Batanes, Babuyan Islands, Ilocos Region, Cordillera Administrative Region, Nueva Vizcaya, Quirino, Central Luzon, Metro Manila, CALABARZON, MIMAROPA, Bicol Region, Western Visayas, Negros Occidental, and Northern Samar.
HAZARDS AFFECTING COASTAL WATERS
โข Gale Warning is in effect over the coastal waters of Batanes and Babuyan Islands. Sea travel is risky for small seacrafts, including all types of motorbancas. For more information, refer to Gale Warning No. 1 issued at 5:00 AM today.
โข In the next 24 hours, CARINA and the enhanced Southwest Monsoon will bring moderate to rough seas over the northern and eastern seaboards of Northern Luzon outside Gale Warning areas (1.5 to 4.0 m), the eastern seaboards of Central and Southern Luzon (1.5 to 3.0 m), and western seaboards of Central and Southern Luzon (1.5 to 3.5 m). Mariners of small seacrafts, including all types of motorbancas, are advised not to venture out to sea under these conditions, especially if inexperienced or operating ill-equipped vessels.
โข Moderate seas are also expected over the southern seaboards of Southern Luzon (1.5 to 2.5 m), the western and eastern seaboards of Visayas, and the eastern seaboard of Mindanao (1.5 to 2.0 m). Mariners of motorbancas and similarly-sized vessels are advised to take precautionary measures while venturing out to sea and, if possible, avoid navigating under these conditions.
TRACK AND INTENSITY OUTLOOK
โข Over the Philippine Sea, CARINA is forecast to move generally north northwestward today while gradually accelerating before turning northwestward tomorrow (24 July). On the track forecast, CARINA will remain far from the Philippine landmass. It is also forecast to make landfall over the northern portion of Taiwan between tomorrow evening and Thursday (25 July) morning, then exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) hours later. Outside the PAR, CARINA will cross the Taiwan Strait and make landfall over southeastern China on Thursday afternoon or evening.
โข CARINA is forecast to steadily intensify and may reach its peak intensity prior to its landfall over Taiwan due to favorable environment. Rapid intensification remains likely. Its landfall over northern Taiwan will trigger a weakening trend for the rest of the forecast period.
Considering these developments, the public and disaster risk reduction and management offices concerned are advised to take all necessary measures to protect life and property. Persons living in areas identified to be highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards are advised to follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. For heavy rainfall warnings, thunderstorm/rainfall advisories, and other severe weather information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your local PAGASA Regional Services Division.
The next tropical cyclone bulletin will be issued at 11:00 AM today.
DOST-PAGASA