18/02/2021
SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN #3
FOR: TROPICAL STORM "AuringPH"
TROPICAL CYCLONE: ALERT
ISSUED AT 11:00 AM, 18 February 2021
(Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin to be issued at 11 PM today)
"AURING" INTENSIFIES INTO A TROPICAL STORM WHILE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA.
Hazards affecting land areas:
• Heavy Rainfall: Tropical Storm "AURING" is not yet expected to bring heavy rains today. However, there is an increasing likelihood of heavy rainfall affecting Visayas, Caraga, Northern Mindanao, Bicol Region, CALABARZON, Davao Oriental, Davao de Oro, Davao del Norte, Lanao del Sur, Mindoro Provinces, Marinduque, Romblon, Northern Palawan including Calamian and Cuyo Islands over the weekend through Monday. Residents in these areas and all disaster risk reduction and management offices concerned, especially those situated in areas identified in hazard maps to be highly or very highly susceptible to flooding and rain-induced landslides, are advised to take appropriate preparatory measures.
• Strong Winds: No locality is currently under Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal (TCWS) #1. However, in anticipation of the arrival of strong breeze to near-gale conditions due to “AURING”, TCWS #1 may be raised over several provinces of Caraga and Davao Region as early as tomorrow, which may result in disruption of maritime activities.
Hazards affecting coastal waters:
• In the next 24 hours, rough to very rough seas (2.8 to 5.0 m) will be experienced over the seaboards of Northern Luzon and the eastern seaboards of Central and Southern Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao due to the surge of the Northeast Monsoon and "AURING". Sea travel is risky over these areas, especially for mariners of small seacrafts.
• Moderate to rough seas (1.2 to 3.1 m) will be experienced over the rest of the seaboards of the country. Mariners of small seacrafts are advised to take precautionary measures when venturing out to sea. Inexperienced mariners should avoid navigating in these conditions.
Track and intensity outlook:
• Tropical Storm “AURING” will move generally westward to west-northwestward through the forecast period, with an increase in speed tomorrow as it turn more west-northwestward.
• "AURING" intensified into a Tropical Storm at 8:00 AM today. On the forecast track, “AURING” may intensify into severe tropical storm prior to landfall over Caraga on Saturday evening or Sunday morning.
Location of eye/center: At 10:00 AM today, the center of Tropical Storm "AURING" was estimated based on all available data at 685 km East Southeast of Hinatuan, Surigao del Sur (7.1°N, 132.4°E).
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 65 km/h near the center and gustiness of up to 80 km/h.
Movement: Moving Northwestward Slowly
Forecast Positions
• 24 Hour (Tomorrow morning): 535 km East Southeast of Hinatuan, Surigao del Sur (7.1°N, 131.0°E)
• 48 Hour (Saturday morning):315 km East Southeast of Hinatuan, Surigao del Sur (7.4°N, 129.0°E)
• 72 Hour (Sunday morning): In the vicinity of Surigao City, Surigao del Norte (9.8°N, 125.6°E)
• 96 Hour (Monday morning):85 km North of Cuyo, Palawan (11.6°N, 120.9°E)
• 120 Hour (Tuesday morning):420 km West of Calapan City, Oriental Mindoro (13.3°N, 117.3°E)
NO TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNAL
The public and the disaster risk reduction and management council concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next update to be incorporated in the 4 PM Public Weather Forecast and in the next Severe Weather Bulletin to be issued at 11 PM today.
