04/11/2024
TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETIN NR. 4
Severe Tropical Storm (YINXING)
Issued at 11:00 PM, 04 November 2024
Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin at 5:00 AM tomorrow.
โMARCEโ INTENSIFIES INTO SEVERE TROPICAL STORM AS IT UNDERGOES RAPID INTENSIFICATION
โข Location of Center (4:00 PM)
The center of Severe Tropical Storm MARCE was estimated based on all available data at 715 km East of Daet, Camarines Norte (14.5ยฐN, 129.6ยฐE)
โข Intensity
Maximum sustained winds of 100 km/h near the center, gustiness of up to 125 km/h, and central pressure of 985 hPa
โข Present Movement
Northwestward at 35 km/h
โข Extent of Tropical Cyclone Winds
Strong to storm-force winds extend outwards up to 600 km from the center
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNALS (TCWS) IN EFFECT
TCWS No:1
Wind threat: Strong winds
Warning lead time: 36 hours
Range of wind speeds: 39 to 61 km/h (Beaufort 6 to 7)
Potential impacts of winds: Minimal to minor threat to life and property
Luzon:
-Batanes, the northern and eastern portions of Cagayan (Camalaniugan, Lal-Lo, Pamplona, Gonzaga, Santa Teresita, Baggao, Buguey, Santa Ana, Claveria, Gattaran, Peรฑablanca, Lasam, Aparri, Ballesteros, Abulug, Allacapan, Sanchez-Mira, Santa Praxedes, Alcala, Amulung, Iguig) including Babuyan Islands, the eastern portion of Isabela (Maconacon, San Pablo, Divilacan, Palanan, Dinapigue), the northern portion of Apayao (Santa Marcela, Luna, Calanasan, Flora, Pudtol), the northern portion of Abra (Santa Marcela, Luna, Calanasan, Flora, Pudtol), and the northern portion of Ilocos Norte (Isabela (Maconacon, San Pablo, Divilacan, Palanan, Dinapigue), Apayao (Santa Marcela, Luna, Calanasan, Flora, Pudtol))
OTHER HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND AREAS
Heavy Rainfall Outlook
Refer to Weather Advisory No. 1 issued at 11:00 PM today for the Heavy Rainfall Outlook associated with Severe Tropical Storm MARCE.
Severe Winds
โข The wind signals warn the public of the general wind threat over an area due to the tropical cyclone. Local winds may be slightly stronger/enhanced in coastal and upland/mountainous areas exposed to winds. Winds are less strong in areas sheltered from the prevailing wind direction.
โข Minimal to minor impacts from strong winds are possible within any of the areas under Wind Signal No. 1.
The highest Wind Signal which may be hoisted during the occurrence of MARCE is Wind Signal No. 4.
Furthermore, northeasterly wind flow will also bring strong to gale-force gusts over the following areas (especially in coastal and upland areas exposed to winds):
โข Tomorrow (5 November): Ilocos Sur, Aurora, Quezon, and Camarines Norte.
โข Wednesday (6 November): Ilocos Region, Quezon, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, and Catanduanes.
โข Thursday (7 November): Ilocos Region
HAZARDS AFFECTING COASTAL WATERS
24-Hour Sea Condition Outlook
Up to rough seas over the following coastal waters:
โข Up to 3.5 m: The seaboard of Batanes.
โข Up to 3.0 m: The seaboards Babuyan Islands, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, Isabela, northern Aurora; the eastern seaboard on mainland Cagayan.
โข Mariners of small seacrafts, including all types of motorbancas, are advised not to venture out to sea under these conditions, especially if inexperienced or operating ill-equipped vessels.
Up to moderate seas over the following coastal waters:
โข Up to 2.5 m: The remaining seaboards of mainland Cagayan and Aurora; the northern and eastern seaboards of Polillo Islands.
โข Up to 2.0 m: The remaining seaboards of Ilocos Region; the seaboards of northern Quezon and Camarines Norte; the northern and eastern seaboards of Catanduanes and Northern Samar; the eastern seaboards of Albay, Sorsogon, and Eastern Samar.
โข Mariners of motorbancas and similarly-sized vessels are advised to take precautionary measures while venturing out to sea and, if possible, avoid navigation under these conditions.
A Gale Warning will likely be hoisted over the seaboard of Northern Luzon tomorrow.
TRACK AND INTENSITY OUTLOOK
โข MARCE is forecast to move generally west northwestward today until tomorrow (5 November) before turning westward at a slow pace over the Philippine Sea east of Extreme Northern Luzon. On the forecast track, MARCE will make landfall in the vicinity of Babuyan Islands or mainland northern Cagayan on Thursday evening (7 November) or Friday (8 November) early morning. Due to uncertainty in the strength of the high pressure area north of MARCE, the forecast track may still change and bring the landfall point to mainland Cagayan-Isabela area.
โข This tropical cyclone is expected to gradually intensify and may reach severe tropical storm category tonight or tomorrow (5 November) morning. Furthermore, it may also reach typhoon category by tomorrow evening or Wednesday early morning. Rapid intensification is likely.
Considering these developments, the public and disaster risk reduction and management offices concerned are advised to take all necessary measures to protect life and property. Persons living in areas identified to be highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards are advised to follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. For heavy rainfall warnings, thunderstorm/rainfall advisories, and other severe weather information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your local PAGASA Regional Services Division.
The next tropical cyclone bulletin will be issued at 5:00 AM tomorrow.
DOST-PAGASA
TC Bulletin: http://tinyurl.com/PHmarce
Weather Advisory Link: https://tinyurl.com/wx-adv
Gale Warning Link: https://tinyurl.com/wx-gale
Storm Surge Link: https://tinyurl.com/wx-surge
TC Warning Agriculture: https://tinyurl.com/AgriPHmarce
