30/09/2024
WALA PA DIN PASOK (northern Aurora ) BASE SA DepEd order! Dahil signal number 1 pa din ang mga bayan ng:
(Dilasag, Casiguran, Dinalungan),
TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETIN NR. 22
Super Typhoon Julian (KRATHON)
Issued at 5:00 AM, 01 October 2024
Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin at 11:00 AM today.
“JULIAN” INTENSIFIES INTO A SUPER TYPHOON AND IS NOW MOVING SLOWLY.
• Location of Center (4:00 AM)
The center of the eye of Super Typhoon JULIAN was estimated based on all available data 205 km West of Itbayat, Batanes (20.6°N, 119.9°E)
• Intensity
Maximum sustained winds of 185 km/h near the center, gustiness of up to 230 km/h, and central pressure of 925 hPa
• Present Movement
West northwestward slowly
• Extent of Tropical Cyclone Winds
Strong to typhoon-force winds extend outwards up to 620 km from the center
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNALS (TCWS) IN EFFECT
TCWS No. 2
Wind threat: Gale-Force winds
Warning lead time: 24 hours
Range of wind speeds: 62 to 88 km/h (Beaufort 8 to 9)
Potential impacts of winds: Minor to moderate threat to life and property
Luzon:
Batanes, Babuyan Islands, the northern portion of Ilocos Norte (Bacarra, Pasuquin, Bangui, Vintar, Burgos, Pagudpud, Dumalneg, Adams), and the northwestern portion of mainland Cagayan (Santa Praxedes, Claveria, Sanchez-Mira)
TCWS No. 1
Wind threat: Strong winds
Warning lead time: 36 hours
Range of wind speeds: 39 to 61 km/h (Beaufort 6 to 7)
Potential impacts of winds: Minimal to minor threat to life and property
Luzon:
The rest of Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, La Union, Pangasinan, Apayao, Kalinga, Abra, Mountain Province, Ifugao, Benguet, the rest of mainland Cagayan, Isabela, Quirino, Nueva Vizcaya, the northern portion of Aurora (Dilasag, Casiguran, Dinalungan), and the northern portion of Nueva Ecija (Carranglan, Lupao, Pantabangan)
OTHER HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND AREAS
Heavy Rainfall Outlook
Refer to Weather Advisory No. 22 issued at 5:00 AM today for the heavy rainfall outlook due to Super Typhoon JULIAN.
Severe Winds
The wind signals warn the public of the general wind threat over an area due to the tropical cyclone. Local winds may be slightly stronger/enhanced in coastal and upland/mountainous areas exposed to winds. Winds are weaker in areas sheltered from the prevailing wind direction.
• Minor to moderate impacts from gale-force winds are possible within any of the localities where Wind Signal No. 2 is hoisted.
• Minimal to minor impacts from strong winds are possible within any of the areas under Wind Signal No. 1.
Furthermore, the wind flow coming towards the circulation of JULIAN may also bring strong to gale-force gusts over the following areas (especially in coastal and upland areas exposed to winds):
• Today: Ilocos Region, Cordillera Administrative Region, the northern and eastern portions of mainland Cagayan, the eastern portion of Isabela, Aurora, Zambales, Bataan, Metro Manila, CALABARZON, Romblon, and Camarines Norte
• Tomorrow (2 October): Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, Abra, Apayao, Batanes, Babuyan Islands, the northern and eastern portions of mainland Cagayan, and the eastern portion of Isabela
• Thursday (3 October): Batanes and Babuyan Islands
Coastal Inundation
There is a moderate to high risk of life-threatening storm surge in the next 48 hours over the low-lying or exposed coastal localities of Batanes and Babuyan Islands. For more information, refer to Storm Surge Warning No. 7 issued at 2:00 AM today.
HAZARDS AFFECTING COASTAL WATERS
A Gale Warning is hoisted over the northern and western seaboards of Northern Luzon. For more information, refer to Gale Warning No. 9 issued at 5:00 AM today.
24-Hour Sea Condition Outlook
High seas over the following coastal waters:
• Up to 7.0 m over the seaboard of Batanes
Sea travel is risky all types or tonnage of vessels. All mariners must remain in port or, if underway, seek shelter or safe harbor as soon as possible until winds and waves subside.
Very rough seas over the following coastal waters:
• Up to 6.0 m over the seaboard Babuyan Islands and Ilocos Norte
• Up to 4.5 m over the seaboard of northern Ilocos Sur
Sea travel is risky for most types or tonnage of vessels, including all small seacrafts and motorbancas. Mariners are advised to remain in port or seek safe shelter or harbor.
Moderate or rough seas over the following coastal waters:
• Up to 3.5 m over the seaboard of mainland Cagayan and the remaining seaboard of Ilocos Sur
• Up to 3.0 m over the remaining seaboard of Ilocos Region and the seaboard of Isabela
• Up to 2.5 m over the seaboard of northern Aurora and northern Zambales
Mariners of small seacrafts, including all types of motorbancas, are advised not to venture out to sea under these conditions, especially if inexperienced or operating ill-equipped vessels
TRACK AND INTENSITY OUTLOOK
• JULIAN is forecast to recurve towards the sea southwest of Taiwan today through tomorrow (2 October) early morning. On the track forecast, the super typhoon will make landfall along the southwestern coast of Taiwan tomorrow morning or afternoon. It will then cross the rugged terrain of Taiwan before emerging over the sea east of Taiwan tomorrow evening or on Thursday (3 October) early morning. Afterwards, JULIAN will move northeastward towards the East China Sea, exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility on Thursday afternoon or evening, then turn northwestward on Friday (4 October) once over the East China Sea.
• JULIAN still has a window for brief intensification in the next 24 hours. Afterwards, increasing interaction with the mountainous terrain of Taiwan will slightly weaken JULIAN prior to making landfall. Its passage over Taiwan will result in JULIAN being downgraded into a severe tropical storm on Thursday.
Considering these developments, the public and disaster risk reduction and management offices concerned are advised to take all necessary measures to protect life and property. Persons living in areas identified to be highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards are advised to follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. For heavy rainfall warnings, thunderstorm/rainfall advisories, and other severe weather information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your local PAGASA Regional Services Division.
The next tropical cyclone bulletin will be issued at 11:00 AM today.
DOST-PAGASA
