03/10/2023
TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETIN NO. 19
Typhoon
Issued at 05:00 AM, 04 October 2023
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TYPHOON โJENNYโ SLIGHTLY WEAKENS AND COMMENCES ITS WEST NORTHWESTWARD TURN TOWARDS SOUTHERN TAIWAN.
TYPHOON โJENNYโ SLIGHTLY WEAKENS AND COMMENCES ITS WEST NORTHWESTWARD TURN TOWARDS SOUTHERN TAIWAN.
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The center of the eye was estimated based on all available data 270 km East Northeast of Itbayat, Batanes. It has a maximum sustained winds of 150 km/h near the center and gustiness of up to 185 km/h. It is moving West Northwestward at 10 km/h.
TCWS NO. 3
The northern portion of Batanes (Itbayat)
TCWS NO. 2
The rest of Batanes and the northern portion of Babuyan Islands (Babuyan Is., Calayan Is.)
TCWS NO. 1
The rest of Babuyan Islands, the northern portion of mainland Cagayan (Santa Ana, Gonzaga, Buguey, Santa Teresita, Lal-Lo, Camalaniugan, Pamplona, Claveria, Aparri, Ballesteros, Abulug, Allacapan, Sanchez-Mira, Santa Praxedes, Lasam, Gattaran), the northern portion of Apayao (Calanasan, Pudtol, Luna, Santa Marcela, Flora), and the northern portion of Ilocos Norte (Piddig, Bangui, Vintar, Burgos, Pagudpud, Bacarra, Adams, Pasuquin, Carasi, Dumalneg, Laoag City)
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND AREAS
Heavy Rainfall Outlook
Forecast accumulated rainfall from today
100-200 mm: Batanes
50-100 mm: The northern portion of Babuyan Islands
Forecast accumulated rainfall from tomorrow
50-100 mm: Batanes and the northern portion of Babuyan Islands
Forecast rainfall are generally higher in elevated or mountainous areas. Under these conditions, flooding and rain-induced landslides are possible especially in areas that are highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards as identified in hazard maps and in localities that experienced considerable amounts of rainfall for the past several days.
In addition, JENNY will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon and bring occasional rains over the western portions of Luzon in the next 3 days.
Severe Winds
The wind signals warn the public of the general wind threat over an area due to the tropical cyclone. Local winds may be slightly stronger/enhanced in coastal and upland/mountainous areas exposed to winds. Winds are less strong in areas sheltered from the prevailing wind direction.
Moderate to significant impacts from storm-force winds may be observed within any of the areas under Wind Signal No. 3
Minor to moderate impacts from gale-force winds are possible within any of the areas under Wind Signal No. 2.
Minimal to minor impacts from strong winds are possible within any of the areas under Wind Signal No. 1.
The enhancement of the Southwest Monsoon by JENNY will bring gusty conditions for the next 3 days over the following areas not under any Wind Signal, especially in coastal and upland/mountainous areas exposed to winds:
Today: The southern portion of Aurora, Bataan, Metro Manila, Occidental Mindoro, Kalayaan Islands, Romblon, most of CALABARZON, and portions of Bicol Region.
Tomorrow: The southern portion of Aurora, Romblon, and portions of CALABARZON and Bicol Region.
HAZARDS AFFECTING COASTAL WATERS
Under the influence of JENNY, a Gale Warning is in effect for the coastal waters along the seaboards of Northern Luzon.
In the next 24 hours, JENNY will also bring moderate to rough seas (1.5 to 3.0 m) over the coastal waters of northern Aurora. Mariners of motor bancas and similarly-sized vessels are advised to take precautionary measures while venturing out to sea and, if possible, avoid navigating in these conditions, especially if inexperienced or operating ill-equipped vessels.
TRACK AND INTENSITY OUTLOOK
JENNY has commenced its west northwestward turn. It is forecast to move west northwestward in the next 12 hours, then westward thereafter. On the track forecast, the typhoon will make landfall over the southern portion of Taiwan tomorrow morning, then exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) tomorrow afternoon or evening. Outside the PAR region, JENNY will continue moving westward slowly over the Taiwan Strait and the coastal waters of southeastern China.
The weakening trend is forecast to continue due to the increasing dry air entrainment and vertical wind shear. Land interaction during its passage over the rugged terrain of southern Taiwan will further weaken the typhoon. Once over the Taiwan Strait, additional cool dry air from the north will entrain into JENNY, resulting in continued weakening.
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(Source: DOST PAGASA)
TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETIN NO. 19
Typhoon
Issued at 05:00 AM, 04 October 2023
The center of the eye was estimated based on all available data 270 km East Northeast of Itbayat, Batanes. It has a maximum sustained winds of 150 km/h near the center and gustiness of up to 185 km/h. It is moving West Northwestward at 10 km/h.
TCWS NO. 3
The northern portion of Batanes (Itbayat)
TCWS NO. 2
The rest of Batanes and the northern portion of Babuyan Islands (Babuyan Is., Calayan Is.)
TCWS NO. 1
The rest of Babuyan Islands, the northern portion of mainland Cagayan (Santa Ana, Gonzaga, Buguey, Santa Teresita, Lal-Lo, Camalaniugan, Pamplona, Claveria, Aparri, Ballesteros, Abulug, Allacapan, Sanchez-Mira, Santa Praxedes, Lasam, Gattaran), the northern portion of Apayao (Calanasan, Pudtol, Luna, Santa Marcela, Flora), and the northern portion of Ilocos Norte (Piddig, Bangui, Vintar, Burgos, Pagudpud, Bacarra, Adams, Pasuquin, Carasi, Dumalneg, Laoag City)
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND AREAS
Heavy Rainfall Outlook
Forecast accumulated rainfall from today
100-200 mm: Batanes
50-100 mm: The northern portion of Babuyan Islands
Forecast accumulated rainfall from tomorrow
50-100 mm: Batanes and the northern portion of Babuyan Islands
Forecast rainfall are generally higher in elevated or mountainous areas. Under these conditions, flooding and rain-induced landslides are possible especially in areas that are highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards as identified in hazard maps and in localities that experienced considerable amounts of rainfall for the past several days.
In addition, JENNY will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon and bring occasional rains over the western portions of Luzon in the next 3 days.
Severe Winds
The wind signals warn the public of the general wind threat over an area due to the tropical cyclone. Local winds may be slightly stronger/enhanced in coastal and upland/mountainous areas exposed to winds. Winds are less strong in areas sheltered from the prevailing wind direction.
Moderate to significant impacts from storm-force winds may be observed within any of the areas under Wind Signal No. 3
Minor to moderate impacts from gale-force winds are possible within any of the areas under Wind Signal No. 2.
Minimal to minor impacts from strong winds are possible within any of the areas under Wind Signal No. 1.
The enhancement of the Southwest Monsoon by JENNY will bring gusty conditions for the next 3 days over the following areas not under any Wind Signal, especially in coastal and upland/mountainous areas exposed to winds:
Today: The southern portion of Aurora, Bataan, Metro Manila, Occidental Mindoro, Kalayaan Islands, Romblon, most of CALABARZON, and portions of Bicol Region.
Tomorrow: The southern portion of Aurora, Romblon, and portions of CALABARZON and Bicol Region.
HAZARDS AFFECTING COASTAL WATERS
Under the influence of JENNY, a Gale Warning is in effect for the coastal waters along the seaboards of Northern Luzon.
In the next 24 hours, JENNY will also bring moderate to rough seas (1.5 to 3.0 m) over the coastal waters of northern Aurora. Mariners of motor bancas and similarly-sized vessels are advised to take precautionary measures while venturing out to sea and, if possible, avoid navigating in these conditions, especially if inexperienced or operating ill-equipped vessels.
TRACK AND INTENSITY OUTLOOK
JENNY has commenced its west northwestward turn. It is forecast to move west northwestward in the next 12 hours, then westward thereafter. On the track forecast, the typhoon will make landfall over the southern portion of Taiwan tomorrow morning, then exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) tomorrow afternoon or evening. Outside the PAR region, JENNY will continue moving westward slowly over the Taiwan Strait and the coastal waters of southeastern China.
The weakening trend is forecast to continue due to the increasing dry air entrainment and vertical wind shear. Land interaction during its passage over the rugged terrain of southern Taiwan will further weaken the typhoon. Once over the Taiwan Strait, additional cool dry air from the north will entrain into JENNY, resulting in continued weakening.
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(Source: DOST PAGASA)