03/04/2023
To: Mr Tonny Maben & Others.
" Without prejudice"
To my esteem friend, your close proximity to James Marape will cloud any objective analysis on the fiscal interventions your PM is making. I dont blame you but respect your views and will take your comments with a grain of salt.
A lot more lives are being lost and truth telling has become a scarse commodity and here in the land of the unexpected, lies and more lies has become the o***m of the masses.
Just a few pointers.
Marape is a good man without the politics, just like O'Neill but the fiscal policy he is peddling is seriously flawed. It is sad, we find Marape deeply mirred in this very toxic stew served by PNC. There must be a better way, unfortunately the policy cabinet appears to be empty, so the begging bowl gets bigger and bigger every year.
Debt and Deficit as a fiscal tool was flawed since 2011 and has become a contagion. Marape has made it more nobler after 2019. If you a fed something you are familiar with, its possible that you will serve the same stew. A leopard does not change its spot, it may sound genuiene, or patriotic but all the same, is still a leopard.
What good is average GDP growth of 3 - 4% from 2019 when you have a systemic cash flow problems accentuated by a ballooning debt burden. The real question is who will pay for this debt and if so, for how long?
Balancing the budget in 2027 and paying off soverign debt in 2034 appears to be sketchy. Who makes such an outrageous claim when cost to public service is almost 10% of GDP or 3% of the entire 2023 budget and growing with more hiring in the public service.
A small proportion of wages tax as income has been removed as a consequence of the tax break climbing to a new threshold of K200,000 per annum. So where will the substitute income lost come from?
Debt and deficit is a stupid fiscal tool and only execebates the misallocation of capital. So how does Debt to GDP ratio below the bandwith of 60% under the adjusted FRA.