25/03/2024
*How to pull Nigeria out of the abyss*
By Faruk Ahmed
Muhammad, the prophet of Islam, once said to his followers, “I swear by Allah, it is not poverty that I fear for you, but rather I fear you will be given the wealth of the world, just as it was given to those before you. You will compete for it just as they competed, and it will ruin you just as it ruined them.”
Nigeria is not grappling with poverty to the extent of Niger Republic. Insecurity, though a concern, has not halted progress as it has in Somalia. Despite inflation wreaking havoc on the country, it hasn’t reached the catastrophic levels witnessed in Germany during the 1930s. Moreover, while in 1980, the dollar exchanged for 0.66 naira; today, as of the time of going to press, it goes for as high as N2,000.
To compound the challenges, the anti-development syndromes, identified by Aderibigbe S. Olomola, a professor of agricultural economics, as impediments to national progress, are rampant in Nigeria. These include poor leadership, widespread corruption, political cultism, dominant external influence, high cost of governance, and security challenges.
While poverty, insecurity, hyperinflation, and fluctuating forex rates may not obliterate Nigerians, the affluence and avarice of their leaders have thrust them into a great gully that is challenging to overcome. Only the correctness of foresight, the dint and stint of a great leader, the steely resolves of its populace, and the will of the Almighty can pull the country out of the doldrum.
Questions arise: What went wrong? Where did we take the wrong turn? Can the damages be fixed? If so, how do we retrace our steps? How do we create a Nigeria of our dreams that will rub shoulders with the developed worlds? This piece will endeavour to unravel these questions.
*How did we get here?*
Pre-independence and immediately afterward, Nigeria operated a parliamentary system of government. Governance wasn’t centralized but rather dispersed to regional governments, sparking healthy competition among these regions. Each region had to don its creative cap to generate revenues, keeping 50 percent for itself. Out of the remaining, 20 percent was sent to the central government, while the other regions shared the remaining 30 percent.
Despite occasional grudges, this didn’t hinder the nation from flourishing, as each region worked hard to generate resources.
The southwest produced rubber, cocoa, kola nuts, and cashew nuts; the southeast produced coal, while the north produced hides and skins, cotton, and groundnuts.
From the middle-belt, Nigerians also cultivated rubber, palm kernels, and timbers, while tin was mined in commercial quantities from Jos. Although some of these products were used internally, the large scale of cultivation led to processing and exporting. Post-independence, agriculture significantly contributed to the nation's economic growth, accounting for about 65 percent of the GDP and 70 percent of total exports, providing much-needed foreign exchange.
From the proceeds of agricultural endeavors, Nigeria built energy projects such as the Kainji dam and the Ughelli thermal plants, an oil refinery, a development bank, and a mint and security company. Most importantly, the country fed itself, and commodity and marketing boards ensured farmers were insured, making products readily available and affordable nationwide.
*The decline*
Three tragedies befell Nigeria immediately after its independence, bringing it to its knees. Firstly, there was the coup and counter-coup of 1966, followed by the civil war of 1967-1970. However, the greatest misfortune of all was striking the oil jackpot in 1973.
While the coups of 1966 disrupted the first republic based on a parliamentary system of governance, the civil war devastated pools of talent and infrastructure in the country. Although the truncation of the first republic impeded the nation's development, the most significant setback came with the discovery of oil. The nation, flush with unprecedented wealth from oil sales, faced a dearth of experienced and patriotic leaders due to the civil war. The young leaders ruling the country failed to dream, act, and conquer new economic fronts, choosing instead to squander the new wealth from oil sales.
Starting from 1974, the nation became a net importer of food. The share of agriculture to the GDP in 1971, which stood at 48.3 percent, shrunk to 21 percent in 1977 (same as 2023). The share of agricultural exports as a percentage of total exports in 1971 was 20.7 percent. It went down to 5.71 percent, and in 2023, it was 4.31 percent.
Today, the nation cannot feed itself. With inflation gripping it, exacerbated by incessant insecurity, the greed of its leaders, dilapidated infrastructure, collapsed and expensive education, unbridled corruption, and a teeming population of undercooked and unemployable youth preferring quick-rich fixes, the nation has finally earned the epitaph of a banana republic...
_To be concluded!_
To get the continuation, join the Nigerian Track WhatsApp group here: https://chat.whatsapp.com/FPGAeO2PQ7xGCDeFyvaHGp
